Summary of the day: Transnistria’s congress could provide the Kremlin reasons for actions against Moldova, with Putin potentially outlining responses. Ukrainian HIMARS strikes in Donetsk stir Russian military blogger concerns. Russia intensifies its crackdown on “foreign agents” ahead of its 2024 presidential election. Leaked documents reveal Russia’s lowered threshold for nuclear weapon use, as reported by the Financial Times. Turkey and China propose their own Ukraine settlement platforms, possibly aiding Kremlin’s negotiation stance. Russian troops have advanced near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City, amidst Shoigu’s inspection of military facilities in Tula Oblast and the use of early voting in occupied Ukraine to legitimize Russia’s control.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made advances northwest of Svatove and engaged in positional battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Footage confirmed Russian progress into Tabaivka, with continued fighting near Kupyansk, Kreminna, and in the Serebryanske forest area. Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reported attacks by Russian motorized rifle brigades northeast of Kupyansk, aiming to encircle the area and push towards the city. Additionally, Russian units, including motorized rifle and tank regiments, are active along the Kupyansk-Svatove line. Russia has also deployed specialized “Storm” assault companies near Terny, indicating a focus on reinforcing its offensive capabilities in key contested regions.
Russian forces reportedly advanced west of Bakhmut, with disputed claims of progress in Ivanivske, although only actions on its eastern outskirts have been visually confirmed. Despite these claims, the frontline in the area remains unchanged. Fighting continues around Bakhmut, including near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Pivdenne, and Niu York.
Russian forces made advances west and northwest of Avdiivka, with progress reported southeast of Orlivka and near Stepove, as confirmed by geolocated footage and Russian Ministry of Defense claims. Ukrainian forces withdrew from Stepove following intense battles, while Russian advances near Orlivka’s center remain unconfirmed. Positional battles are ongoing in areas around Avdiivka, with multiple Russian brigades involved in the assaults. Ukrainian officials have reported stabilizing a new defensive line west of Avdiivka, leveraging favorable terrain and reservoirs for defense, effectively blocking Russian advances near Orlivka. This strategic positioning indicates a continued effort to maintain control in the face of Russian offensives.
Russian forces advanced west of Donetsk City, with significant movements near Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka. Geolocated footage shows Russian forces moving into Krasnohorivka’s outskirts, with claims of further advances into the town’s center. But by evening, Ukraine’s Third Assault Brigade successfully expelled Russian forces from Krasnohorivka marking a significant counterattack. The brigade reported substantial Russian casualties, with 100 soldiers killed or wounded, noting that the Russian troops were eliminated after refusing to surrender. Another report indicates a 200-meter advancement by Russian forces near Novomykhailivka. Continued fighting is noted in areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, involving various Russian military units. These developments mark ongoing confrontations in the region amidst the broader conflict.
The Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area saw limited positional clashes without any changes to the frontline. Reports highlighted engagements near Vuhledar, around Velyka Novosilka, and in the vicinity of Pryyutne and Malynivka. Russian forces attempted but failed to advance north of Pryyutne, indicating increased activity, especially near Velyka Novosilka, described by one source as a “slow offensive.”
Russian forces carried out localized offensives in western Zaporizhia Oblast without securing any confirmed territorial gains. Reports indicate ongoing combat on the southern edges of Robotyne, with Ukrainian forces holding positions in the northern part of the town. Despite claims of Russian advancements up to 500 meters between Robotyne and Verbove, no visual confirmation of such gains has been observed. Russian efforts to attack northwest of Verbove were also reported, with Ukrainian forces maintaining their ground.
Ukrainian forces, holding limited positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, reportedly intensified operations on February 27. Combat continues in Krynky, with Ukrainian units maintaining a presence there. Russian forces are continuing to launch “human wave” attacks without the support of armored vehicles resulting in heavy casualties. Reports suggest Ukrainian attacks near Krynky aimed at diverting Russian attention, coinciding with Ukrainian reinforcements to the region. Concentrations of Ukrainian troops were also noted near the Antonivskyi Bridge. Additionally, a Ukrainian attempt to land on the Tendrivska Spit, a strategic location in the Black Sea, was reportedly repelled by Russian forces.
Human Costs Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine caused five deaths and injuring at least two others:
- Russia launched an airstrike using guided aerial bombs on Velykyi Burluk, a village in Kharkiv Oblast, resulting in the deaths of a man and a six-year-old girl. The attack, which occurred around 5 p.m. local time, targeted a local railway station and seriously injured the child’s mother, who is currently receiving medical treatment.
- An artillery strike by Russia on Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulted in the death of a 61-year-old woman. The attack occurred in the afternoon, with further impacts still being assessed.
- A Russian airstrike with guided aerial bombs targeted the city center of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast, close to the front line, resulting in the deaths of two men, aged 58 and 39, and injuring at least five others. The 58-year-old victim was a pastor, and the attack damaged a church and a cafe. There may still be individuals trapped under rubble, with one woman confirmed injured.
The aftermath of a Russian airstrike against Velykyi Burluk
Ukraine News
Ukrainian forces have conducted a HIMARS missile strike targeting a Russian military awards ceremony in Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, reportedly killing 19, including high-ranking officers, and injuring 12. This strike follows two similar attacks against Russian troop concentrations in Donetsk and Kherson Oblasts. These incidents have raised concerns among Russian military bloggers about Ukraine’s strategic use of HIMARS systems and the Russian military’s operational security lapses, particularly the risk of holding large gatherings within range of Ukrainian reconnaissance and missile capabilities. The growing frequency of these precise strikes has led to increased scrutiny and criticism within the Russian military community, highlighting Ukraine’s effective targeting of Russian forces.
Russian forces launched missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, deploying 10 Shahed drones and several S-300 missiles, particularly targeting Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force successfully intercepted all drones over Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. Additionally, Russia claimed to have hit a Ukrainian military gathering in Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast.
Turkey and China are each proposing separate negotiation platforms to address the conflict in Ukraine, moves the Kremlin is expected to use to its advantage. China’s Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, Li Hiu, plans to visit several EU states, Ukraine, and Russia starting March 2 for talks aimed at finding a political resolution to the war. Russia has already interpreted China’s previous peace plan proposals as support for its actions in Ukraine. Similarly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has offered Ankara as another venue for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. However, these initiatives are likely to be leveraged by the Kremlin to push the narrative that Ukraine is resisting negotiations, despite assessments that Russia is not genuinely seeking a resolution that deviates from its own terms.
Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada experienced a cyberattack on its official website, as announced via Telegram. The attack redirected users to a fake page through a compromised Telegram link on the site. Although specifics about the attackers were not disclosed, the parliament’s website and the Telegram link were promptly restored. This incident is part of a series of cyberattacks in the ongoing conflict, including previous attacks on Ukrainian phone operator Kyivstar by the Russian hacker group Solntsepek and a significant cyberattack on Monobank, Ukraine’s largest mobile-only bank.
Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s Deputy Economy Minister, stated that discussions with Poland about the ongoing border blockade and trade disputes did not include plans to close the border, contradicting earlier remarks by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk about potentially shutting it for goods trade. Kachka emphasized the importance of a stable border for Ukraine’s survival amid its conflict with Russia, highlighting efforts to find a constructive solution to address the concerns of both Polish and Ukrainian farmers without resorting to a closure. Amid protests by Polish farmers against Ukrainian agricultural imports and EU policies, both countries are seeking ways to alleviate tensions and possibly establish quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products to protect local producers.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian authorities are employing early voting in the presidential election to legitimize their control over occupied regions in Ukraine. The head of the occupation in Kherson Oblast, Vladimir Saldo, noted on February 27 that early voting in the area saw unexpectedly high turnout. Reports from the Ukrainian Resistance Center indicate that Russia is incentivizing students at Russian universities with bribes to vote in the election within occupied Ukrainian territories. Additionally, over 10,000 Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) personnel have been dispatched to ensure attendance at polling stations and likely influence votes in favor of President Vladimir Putin.
Ukraine’s Allies
At a summit in Tirana, leaders from Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Ukraine signed a declaration supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, attending the second Ukraine-Southeast Europe summit, engaged in talks and delivered a speech emphasizing the war as a significant threat to European security. The declaration affirmed support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and the pursuit of peace based on the UN Charter, with a commitment to join an international peace summit in Switzerland. It condemned Russia’s election plans in occupied Ukrainian territories, called for accountability for Russian war crimes, and advocated for the return of abducted Ukrainian children. The signatories also vowed to enhance cooperation in information security, support Ukraine’s reconstruction, and back its aspirations towards EU and NATO membership, alongside Moldova, Georgia, and Western Balkan countries. Despite Serbia’s neutral stance on the conflict and its close ties with Russia, President Aleksandar Vucic’s participation highlighted a collective European stand for Ukraine’s cause.
In Tirana, President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his intention to discuss enhancing Ukraine’s defense capabilities with French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron, at a recent meeting with Western officials, emphasized the need for strengthened security to prevent Russian aggression towards countries like the Baltics, Poland, and Georgia, even mentioning the possibility of deploying Western troops in Ukraine. However, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and leaders from Germany, the U.K., and other European NATO countries have dismissed the idea of sending troops. Zelensky, who was not present at the allies’ meeting in Paris on February 26, looks forward to meeting Macron in Kyiv in mid-March to further explore defense strategies. Zelensky highlighted Macron’s commitment to proposing new defense strengthening ideas during their upcoming meeting.
Albania plans to open its embassy in Kyiv soon, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba after a meeting with his Albanian counterpart Igli Hasani in Tirana. Ukraine opened its embassy in Albania in 2020, and the move is expected to strengthen bilateral ties significantly. The two countries also discussed defense cooperation, particularly focusing on artillery ammunition, amid Ukraine’s critical shell shortages. Additionally, Albania expressed its willingness to join the Core Group on the Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine during the discussions.
Ukraine’s Finance Minister, Serhii Marchenko, announced the country requires $3 billion in external financing each month in 2023 to mitigate the economic fallout from the Russian invasion, during a G7 meeting. Despite receiving $42.5 billion in aid in 2022, funding uncertainties loom, especially with U.S. assistance delayed by internal political challenges. The EU has approved a four-year, 50-billion-euro aid package for Ukraine, with the first installment of 4.5 billion euros expected in March, highlighting continued international support amidst financial strains.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed using the windfall profits from frozen Russian assets, amounting to around $300 billion, to purchase military equipment for Ukraine. In her speech to the European Parliament, she highlighted the significance of such action in enhancing the security of Ukraine and Europe. Despite legal debates hindering the transfer of these funds for Ukraine’s reconstruction, the urgency is underscored by delays in U.S. military aid. Von der Leyen emphasized the importance of European leadership in this crisis, echoing U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s call for urgent action. The EU recently announced measures targeting profits from these frozen assets.
The Pentagon is contemplating using the last $4 billion from its presidential drawdown authority to aid Ukraine, despite uncertainty over Congress replenishing these funds, as reported by CNN. This authority enables the Pentagon to support Ukraine directly from U.S. military reserves. However, hesitation exists due to a pending $60 billion aid package in Congress, which includes broader foreign aid but faces delays, particularly in the House. These delays risk causing ammunition shortages in Ukraine, notably affecting the situation in Avdiivka. While the Pentagon has not confirmed these plans, it continues to push for the passage of additional funding, having last sent a $250 million aid package to Ukraine in December. Other assistance continues through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
Ukraine’s European allies are ramping up efforts to supply more shells for Ukraine’s defense. The European Union, as announced by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, intends to double its annual ammunition output by 2025, targeting over two million artillery shells per year by the end of 2025. Additionally, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo revealed Belgium’s commitment of 200 million euros to support a Czech-led initiative to buy 800,000 shells from outside Europe for Ukraine, with deliveries expected in the coming weeks.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s decision to step down from his leadership role in November marks a notable change in Republican support for Ukraine, according to Politico. McConnell, a staunch advocate for aiding Kyiv against Russian aggression, has played a crucial role in securing military assistance and funding. Despite his impending departure, McConnell remains committed to U.S. global leadership, emphasizing the importance of recent emergency spending legislation to aid Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel. His exit may influence future Republican decisions on Ukraine funding, with potential successors like Senators John Thune, John Cornyn, and John Barrasso bringing differing perspectives on the matter.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that its Internal Audit Service and US inspectors carried out two joint inspections of weapons supplied by the United States.
Russia News
Russia is intensifying its control over the information space by targeting “foreign agents” with new legislation, particularly in the lead-up to the March 2024 presidential election. A recent law prohibits Russians from promoting content from or on platforms owned by those labeled as “foreign agents.” This move is already impacting Russian opposition media, with at least one journalist halting their work and major advertising agencies adjusting contracts to account for potential “foreign agent” designations. Additionally, the number of criminal prosecutions against designated “foreign agents” has increased, focusing on accusations of spreading false information about the military or promoting extremism. Some regions, like Krasnodar Krai, are proposing further restrictions, including stripping voting rights from those convicted of such offenses.
An investigation by the Financial Times, based on leaked Russian military documents from 2008 to 2014, reveals Russia’s potential criteria for deploying tactical nuclear weapons. The documents suggest Russia might consider using nuclear force under conditions less severe than previously stated publicly, including scenarios like significant damage to its strategic ballistic missile submarines. Although these documents are over a decade old, experts believe they still reflect current Russian nuclear policy. The legitimacy of these documents cannot be independently confirmed, but their content aligns with Russia’s known strategy of using nuclear threats to influence Western perceptions and undermine support for Ukraine. Russian doctrine reportedly allows for the use of nuclear weapons in conventional conflicts at thresholds lower than those acceptable to Western nations.
Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, urged the European Parliament for innovative strategies against Vladimir Putin’s regime, following Navalny’s death on February 16 in a Russian penal colony. She highlighted the need for a creative approach to counter Putin, labeling him not as a politician but a “bloody mobster” and emphasizing the importance of targeting Putin’s close circle to dismantle his support system. Navalnaya’s call to action comes amid global sanctions against Russia, which she argues need to be more effectively targeted to impact Putin’s financial networks and allies directly.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the Tula State University’s Military Training Center and defense industry enterprises in Tula Oblast, focusing on advancements in drone operation training and military production. The center has trained over 400 drone specialists, a program initiated by Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin. Shoigu’s tour included the Strela and Splav enterprises, known for producing reconnaissance radar systems and increasing their shell production significantly — Strela doubled its capacity in 2023, and Splav quadrupled shell production. Shoigu emphasized the need for these defense enterprises to speed up weapon deliveries and ensure a steady supply to the military for 2024.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, used Stalinist rhetoric, referencing a telegram by Joseph Stalin that criticized Soviet defense industry failures during World War II. This was reported by RIA Novosti, highlighting Medvedev’s concerns about current or potential shortcomings in Russia’s defense industry production amid the conflict with Ukraine.
Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, warned in an interview with The Times that Russia has developed an advanced artificial intelligence (AI) tool aimed at significantly disrupting future elections in the UK and the US. Russia reportedly has specialized units focused on election interference in these countries, leveraging a vast network of informants and agents. Danilov highlighted the challenge in completely blocking Russian interference efforts. He noted that AI technology has enabled Russia to intensify disinformation campaigns, with Russian services distributing around 166 million disinformation posts weekly about Ukraine across various media channels.
Russia’s Allies
Transnistria, a pro-Russian region in Moldova, held its Seventh Congress of Deputies on February 28, where it passed decisions potentially enabling Russia to justify escalatory actions against Moldova. These decisions include a request for Russian “defense” against what Transnistria claims are increasing pressures from Moldova. The region cited the presence of 220,000 Russian citizens and obligations of the Russian “peacekeeping mission” as grounds for this request, aligning with the Kremlin’s broader strategy of using the protection of Russian citizens abroad as a pretext for military interventions, as seen in Ukraine. Furthermore, the Congress called on international bodies like the UN, European Parliament, OSCE, CIS, and the International Committee for the Red Cross to address alleged Moldovan violations of Transnistrian rights and to promote dialogue and prevent escalation. These moves aim to position Transnistria as a separate entity from Moldova, without pushing for full independence, while providing Russia with pretexts for potential interventions.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda or What Tucker Carlson and the JBS Will Say Tomorrow
The Kremlin is using pro-Russian regions Transnistria and Gagauzia to potentially destabilize Moldova, with broad and open-ended appeals for Russian “defense” that do not specify immediate actions or timelines. These appeals aim to provide Russia with various options for escalating actions against Moldova, without committing to specific measures or timeframes. Following Transnistria’s Congress, Russian officials, including President Putin, have expressed support for Transnistria’s requests, emphasizing Russia’s priority to protect its citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria. While there’s talk of considering Transnistria’s proposals, including economic assistance, there’s no immediate indication of military support due to logistical challenges posed by Transnistria’s landlocked position. Russia may offer humanitarian aid or press Moldova diplomatically to change its customs code, which Transnistria opposes due to economic concerns and its alignment with EU regulations. The Kremlin might use this situation to further its hybrid operations, aiming to destabilize Moldova, especially ahead of Moldova’s EU accession negotiations and presidential elections in 2024. The most extreme action Russia could take is the formal annexation of Transnistria to justify long-term military intervention in Moldova. However, any Russian military action faces significant logistical hurdles due to the region’s geography.
Kremlin officials are publicly denouncing Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for his critical stance on Russia and his decision to limit Armenia’s involvement in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia. This criticism comes amid worsening relations between Russia and Armenia.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com