Summary of the day: A leaked document reveals that in April 2022, Russia proposed peace terms with Ukraine that would significantly reduce Ukraine’s defense capabilities, a strategy for potential future aggression. Russia seems to have broader ambitions in the conflict, as indicated by a shift in their goals. Domestically, President Putin has publicly aligned with military veterans, criticizing the oligarch elites. Internationally, Russia has shown support for the pro-Russian region of Gagauzia in Moldova, opposing what it calls Moldovan “oppression.” Meanwhile, Ukraine secured a decade-long security pact with the Netherlands, which includes a significant military aid package. On the battlefield, Russian troops have advanced in the Donetsk region. Additionally, Russia plans to use reservist training to bolster its military forces discreetly.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Ukrainian officials are concerned that without increased ammunition supplies from allies, Russia may strengthen its battlefield position by summer. The U.S. has yet to pass a $60 billion aid package, leading to shortages that have affected the conflict, notably in Avdiivka. European sources suggest recent Ukrainian territorial losses should be a warning to supporters.
Intelligence suggests Putin still aims to capture significant Ukrainian cities. Russia’s success will depend on its ongoing offensive’s outcome, which could lead to a larger attack in the summer.
Despite Ukraine’s challenges, Russia also faces troop and equipment strains, making major advances uncertain. There’s speculation Russia might initiate a new mobilization post-Presidential election. Allies, recognizing Ukraine’s needs, support Czechia’s initiative to supply shells to Ukraine.
A senior NATO official has indicated that significant changes in the war are not expected in 2024, as both sides lack the force for a decisive breakthrough. Ukraine might escalate military efforts in the spring, but a full-scale counteroffensive in 2024 seems improbable.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued along the front line between Kupyansk, Svatove, and Kreminna in Ukraine. Clashes were reported in several areas, including near Kupyansk and Kreminna. Russian forces are said to have targeted a Ukrainian pontoon bridge over the Oskil River, having previously damaged permanent bridges in the area. An uptick in attacks on river crossings could signal a more intense Russian offensive on this front. Chechen and Russian special forces are reportedly active near Bilohorivka.
Battles persisted around Bakhmut with a focus on positional warfare. Some Russian military bloggers have contradicted earlier reports of capturing Ivanivske, instead stating that fighting is ongoing there. No significant Russian territorial gains have been visually confirmed recently. Combat also continues in areas to the northeast, northwest, southwest, and south of Bakhmut. Russian airborne units are active in the region.
Since May 2023, Ukrainian forces have bolstered defenses near Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut. They have built multiple layers of defense, including small unit positions and broader fortifications within the town, plus barriers such as minefields. These measures are designed to protect against Russian movements towards vital locations like Kostyantynivka and the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk area.
Russian military activity around Avdiivka has escalated, with the conflict ebbing and flowing as Ukrainian forces recently recaptured some lost ground. Although Russia reports gains around Orlivka and Berdychi, these remain unverified. With increased indirect fire and larger assault groups, Russia’s intensified efforts in the Avdiivka sector point to a significant offensive push in the region.
Russian military units have made slight advancements southwest of Donetsk City, amidst ongoing clashes in the area. Reports include a minor push in Novomykhailivka and progress east of Pobieda. Despite Russian claims of activity near Krasnohorivka, Ukrainian forces report having expelled Russian troops there on February 27. The confrontations are part of continuous positional battles west and southwest of Donetsk, with specific Russian naval and artillery brigades involved near Novomykhailivka and Krasnohorivka.
Ongoing skirmishes were reported along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, specifically near Velyka Novosilka. Clashes took place southeast of the town near Novodonetske and Zolota Nyva, south near Urozhaine, and southwest near Marfopil, Shevchenko, and Malynivka. Russian Aerospace Forces units are actively involved near Malynivka.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, fighting persisted with no changes in front lines reported. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed ongoing battles near Robotyne. A Russian military blogger noted challenges for Russian forces in gaining ground within Robotyne due to extensive damage and the necessity to move within a contested area.
Ongoing clashes were reported in the eastern part of Kherson Oblast, near Krynky. Russian forces are reportedly attempting to secure the area around Krynky.
Russian sources report Ukrainian strikes near key locations in Crimea, including Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, Saky, and Simferopol. Amidst these reports, Russian defense forces in Sevastopol claim to have intercepted and downed up to ten aerial targets. While the specific outcomes of the strikes are unconfirmed, recent patterns show an increase in Ukrainian actions targeting Russian military assets on the peninsula.
Human Costs Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of three people and injuries to another seven:
- Russian forces attacked a site in Mykolaiv Oblast, resulting in a fire. Emergency services are responding to the incident. No casualties have been reported.
- A Russian drone attack in Odesa killed two people and injured seven, including a three-year-old boy with a wounded leg. The attack struck the ninth floor of a residential building, leaving seven people missing under debris. Some nearby apartments lost heating due to the shelling.
- Local authorities in Kharkiv Oblast reported that a Russian drone attack killed a 76-year-old man in the Kupiansk district. The man died after his home was struck around midnight, and an elderly woman from a nearby house was evacuated. Additionally, a drone attack in Kharkiv damaged four cars and windows in residential buildings, but there were no casualties reported in the city.
Aftermath of Russian drone attack on Odesa
Aftermath of a Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that 920 Russian forces casualties were recorded in the previous day alone.
Ukraine News
On the night of February 29 to March 1, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces fired five S-300 missiles from Belgorod and Donetsk regions and launched four Shahed drones from Krasnodar Krai at Ukraine. Ukrainian defenses successfully intercepted all four drones over Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Additionally, four S-300 missiles targeted administrative and infrastructure sites in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, according to local military officials.
A leaked 2022 peace plan draft suggests Russia aimed to significantly limit Ukraine’s military capabilities, proposing a cap on troops and heavy weaponry and restricting missile range. The Wall Street Journal, having reviewed the draft, reports that Ukraine would be blocked from NATO membership but could pursue EU membership. Crimea would remain under Russian control, and the Russian language would be given equal status in Ukrainian governance, which Ukraine did not agree to. The peace deal, requiring foreign powers to defend Ukraine’s neutrality, echoes the failed assurances of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Current Ukrainian peace proposals call for the withdrawal of Russian forces, which Russia rejects. Ukraine is also planning a global summit in Switzerland to discuss its peace formula and sovereignty restoration.
Ukraine’s chief Ombudsman stated that Russia hasn’t provided an official list confirming Ukrainian prisoners on the crashed Il-76 aircraft in late January. This follows Russia’s claim of readiness to return bodies of alleged POWs. Russia accuses Ukrainian forces of downing the aircraft carrying 65 captives. Ukraine demands a transparent investigation and access to the crash site. Ukrainian intelligence confirms ongoing efforts to repatriate bodies. American officials suggest a U.S.-made Patriot missile likely downed the plane, possibly carrying Ukrainian prisoners.
Polish farmers have fully blocked the Medyka-Shehyni border crossing with Ukraine since 1 p.m., March 1, halting all truck traffic due to protests against Ukrainian agricultural imports and the EU’s Green Deal. The protests, starting in February, have escalated tensions, with actions including dumping Ukrainian crops and anti-Ukrainian slogans. On Feb. 29, only 47 trucks crossed the border, with a significant reduction in truck traffic also noted at the Yahodyn-Dorohusk checkpoint. Ukrainian officials have called for Polish intervention against the blockade and related anti-Ukrainian sentiments. Despite a proposal for a border meeting from Ukraine’s President Zelensky, Polish Prime Minister Tusk has scheduled talks in Warsaw for March 28.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Naftogaz, Ukraine’s national oil and gas company, is set to produce 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2024, aligning with the country’s energy strategy for increased domestic production. This follows a milestone winter in 2023-2024 where Ukraine relied solely on its domestic gas reserves of 16 billion cubic meters, avoiding the need for imports. The energy system is currently stable, with no consumer restrictions, and Ukraine has over 8.5 billion cubic meters of gas and 1 million tons of coal in reserve. Preparations for the next heating season are set to start soon. Naftogaz has also reported a record daily gas production, the highest in five years, at 38.54 million cubic meters.
In February, Ukraine hit a post-invasion record by exporting eight million metric tons of goods through a temporary Black Sea corridor, with 5.2 million metric tons being agricultural products. This corridor, avoiding direct routes through international waters, circumvents the Russian blockade. Exports from Black Sea ports in Odesa Oblast are nearing pre-war quantities, with the vast majority of Ukraine’s agricultural exports passing through Odesa and Danube River ports. Since the corridor’s creation, Ukraine has exported around 28 million metric tons of goods, primarily grain and oil, to 42 countries, contributing significantly to global food security.
President Zelensky advised against Kharkiv residents returning home due to ongoing security concerns, citing the city’s vulnerability to attacks amid Russia’s invasion. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, faces near-daily assaults, including a recent drone strike causing casualties and destruction. Zelensky emphasized the need to bolster air defenses and push Russian forces back to ensure Kharkiv’s safety. Over 20,000 buildings have been destroyed in the city since the invasion began.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is set to introduce a “Commercial drone pilot” education program in seven vocational schools across various regions, as announced by Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. Recognizing drones’ critical role in defense and civilian applications, the initiative aligns with President Zelensky’s priority to advance drone capabilities, including a new drone-focused military branch. The program, supported by the EU, will train students in drone operations for various uses like agriculture, rescue, demining, and journalism. The government plans to expand the program and renovate over 200 vocational schools to enhance specialist training.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine and the Netherlands have agreed on a 10-year security deal. The Netherlands will supply Ukraine with €2 billion in military aid for 2024, focusing on air defense, artillery, naval, and long-range weapons. Additionally, the Dutch Ministry of Defense will provide various types of boats and increase its funding for artillery shells for Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte signed a 10-year security agreement in Kharkiv. The deal includes 2 billion euros in military aid from the Netherlands this year and long-term defense assistance. It prioritizes air defense, artillery, sea, and long-range capabilities. Rutte’s visit to Kharkiv was unannounced due to security concerns. He witnessed the destruction caused by Russian attacks and affirmed support for Ukraine. Rutte’s proactive role in aiding Ukraine aligns with his potential candidacy for NATO Secretary General.
Czech Interior Minister Vít Rakusan visited Lviv to meet Ukrainian counterpart Ihor Klymenko and sign a cooperation declaration on March 1. Czechia has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, providing military, financial, and humanitarian aid. Klymenko thanked Czechia for hosting Ukrainian refugees and assistance. They aim to integrate EU and NATO standards into Ukraine’s Interior Ministry, focusing on hybrid threats and cyber security. Czechia also supplied nearly €1 million in medical equipment to Ukraine’s National Guard in February. Rakusan emphasized solidarity in Europe’s defense against Russian aggression, stating support for Ukraine’s efforts to expel Russian occupiers.
Yellen says using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine aid won’t replace stalled $60B Congress package. Urges urgent direct aid despite EU and Japan commitments. Legal hurdles in using $300B Russian assets for aid. Senate approved bill in Jan. to transfer frozen assets for Ukraine aid.
Bulgaria stopped importing Russian oil this week in compliance with the European Union’s ban on Russian oil. The E.U. had previously granted Bulgaria a two-year exemption, which expired today. The decision to end Russian crude imports aligns with Bulgaria’s increasing support for Ukraine, demonstrated by arms supplies and recent talks between Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Bulgaria continues to address Russian intelligence infiltration, recently banning two Russian citizens suspected of involvement in intelligence operations.
Switzerland aligned with the European Union’s 13th package of sanctions against Russia, expanding its own sanctions. The EU imposed sanctions on 106 individuals and 88 entities involved in Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine. Switzerland mirrored these measures on Feb. 29, adding the same individuals and companies to its sanctions list. Despite its neutral stance, Switzerland has joined international efforts against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is actively preventing circumvention of sanctions.
Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair stated that Ottawa is prepared to send military personnel to Ukraine for training purposes only, not for combat, as reported by the Toronto Star on Feb. 29. This decision aligns with Canada’s role in providing comprehensive support to Ukraine over the next decade. Despite discussions sparked by French President Emmanuel Macron suggesting the possibility of Western troops in Ukraine, Blair and other NATO leaders have ruled out direct military involvement. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of dire consequences if NATO troops intervened in Ukraine, raising concerns about the escalation of the conflict.
Canada has expanded its ban on Russian diamonds, now prohibiting the indirect import of diamonds weighing one carat and above. This move complements previous restrictions imposed in December 2023. The ban aligns with commitments made by G7 leaders to reduce revenues from Russian diamond exports. Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly emphasized Canada’s commitment to imposing economic barriers on the Putin regime in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia, the world’s largest diamond producer, earned over $3.9 billion from diamond sales last year. The ban by Canada, along with similar measures by the U.S. and EU, targets Russia’s diamond industry, a significant source of revenue for the country.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced that Russia has been expelled from the Danube Commission, an organization overseeing navigation on the Danube River. The decision was made due to Russia’s continuous attacks on the Lower Danube region, violating the founding Belgrade Convention’s principles. Despite a December deadline to withdraw from the convention, Russia remained, leading to its expulsion. The Danube Commission also imposed a fine on Russia for non-payment contributions. Other member countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Germany, Moldova, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Croatia. Russia has not responded to the expulsion.
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are at odds over Macron’s suggestion of deploying Western troops in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported. Macron’s proposal, made at a European leaders’ summit in Paris, was reportedly met with disagreement from Scholz’s office. The rift reflects broader differences in approach and may impact the course of the conflict. While Macron has advocated for stronger support to Ukraine, Scholz’s stance has been more cautious. NATO and other European leaders have ruled out sending troops to Ukraine.
Russia News
On Feb. 29, an attack in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast damaged a Russian Pantsir S-1 anti-aircraft missile system, located about 10 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, as reported by Ukraine’s military intelligence on March 1. The incident, which resulted in the system’s disablement and injuries to two Russian soldiers, was not attributed to any specific party. The Pantsir system, valued at approximately $15 million, is used by Russia to protect its military and industrial sites. This event is part of a series of reported strikes on Russian military assets near the Ukraine border, including a notable attack on a radio relay station in November 2023. Concurrently, Russia has reported shooting down drones over its territory, though Ukrainian officials typically do not respond to these claims, and independent verification is lacking.
Alexei Navalny’s funeral service occurred in a Moscow church, followed by burial at Borisov Cemetery in Brateyevo district. Thousands joined the procession, chanting support for Navalny and criticizing President Putin. Navalny, a prominent opposition figure, died in custody on Feb. 16. Global leaders blamed Putin, though the cause of death remains disputed. The funeral attracted a large crowd, but only close relatives could attend the service. Authorities limited internet access in the area. EU and U.S. ambassadors attended, despite warnings from the Kremlin. Navalny’s body was released to his mother after public outcry over delays. Kremlin attempts to curtail a public funeral were reported.
In a recent speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized the country’s elites from the 1990s and instead praised military personnel as the true elite due to their loyalty. He suggested veterans should assume leadership roles traditionally held by elites in society, business, and government. His comments have garnered support from nationalistic military bloggers. Putin also proposed economic reforms aimed at redistributing wealth, which align with some bloggers’ calls for a shift away from oligarch capitalism to more equal opportunities. These statements seem to resonate with pro-war commentators who have previously criticized Russian elites.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian President Vladimir Putin has initiated annual military training for Russian reservists across various state security agencies, including the armed forces and the FSB, for 2024. This initiative aims to enhance combat readiness among citizens with prior military conscription. It is anticipated that these training sessions will also serve as a platform for encouraging reservists to join the military actively, supported by incentives under Russia’s crypto-mobilization efforts.
The UK Ministry of Defense reports a significant rise in Russian artillery ammunition production in 2023, expected to continue into 2024 but likely hitting a peak due to production limits. This increase stems from Russia refurbishing and modernizing existing equipment rather than manufacturing new items, with most tanks in 2023 being updated models. Despite challenges in fulfilling all military needs, Russia’s defense industry is projected to maintain a material advantage over Ukraine through 2024.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced a successful test launch of the RS-24 Yars ICBM, capable of carrying multiple warheads. This follows President Putin’s statement highlighting Russia’s capability to target Western nations with its arsenal. Analysts believe Russia uses such displays to intimidate the West and undermine support for Ukraine, though actual nuclear use is deemed highly unlikely.
Russia’s Allies
Russian officials have pledged support for Gagauzia, a pro-Russian region in Moldova, against what they call Moldovan “oppression.” Meeting in Moscow, Russian leaders criticized Moldova’s policies and promised to strengthen ties with Gagauzia, including economic and humanitarian aid. This move aligns with similar Russian support in Transnistria, another pro-Russian area in Moldova. Observers suggest Russia may use these relationships to justify future interventions or to disrupt Moldova’s efforts to join the European Union.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda or What Tucker Carlson and the JBS Will Say Tomorrow
Russian officials Sergei Kiriyenko and Vladislav Surkov are said to be orchestrating “Maidan-3,” a campaign designed to weaken Ukrainian morale by purchasing Telegram channels and other social media outlets to spread disinformation questioning the Ukrainian government’s legitimacy.
The Kremlin is using an alleged audio recording of German military discussing a potential strike on the Kerch Strait Bridge to discourage Western military aid to Ukraine. This recording, mentioned by TASS and RT’s Margarita Simonyan, suggests discussions on training for Ukraine to use Taurus missiles for precise long-range attacks. However, the authenticity of this recording cannot be independently verified. This tactic reflects Russia’s broader strategy of framing Western arms support to Ukraine as escalatory.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com