Summary of the day: Russian forces continue to engage in Eastern Ukraine, targeting strategic gains despite aviation losses, with a focus on the Avdiivka-Donetsk line. Recent troop advances have been confirmed near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and Krynky. Diplomatically, Russia has rejected Turkey’s offer for peace talks with Ukraine and is advancing narratives aimed at destabilizing Moldova. On the domestic front, the Kremlin allowed public displays of anti-war sentiment during opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s funeral. Additionally, Russia acknowledges shifts in military relationships, notably Armenia’s decreased involvement in the CSTO.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Russian forces continue to face significant aviation losses in eastern Ukraine, particularly along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line, yet persist in tactical operations to gain ground. Ukrainian forces reported downing another Russian Su-34 aircraft and have shot down 15 Russian aircraft since February 17, indicating a heightened risk for Russian aviation. The destruction of an A-50 radar aircraft on February 23 has notably affected Russian air operations, forcing closer proximity for strikes. Despite these losses, Russia aims to reestablish limited air superiority to support ground advances, suggesting that the strategic benefits of such operations outweigh the considerable loss of aircraft and potentially trained pilots.
Following the downing of a second A-50 early warning aircraft, Russia has likely ceased A-50 flights in Ukraine, as reported by the U.K. Defense Ministry on March 2. These losses, occurring in January and February and costing around $330 million each, have significantly impacted Russian air operations, including surveillance and coordination capabilities. Ukraine’s detection of these aircraft has ceased since February 23, suggesting a pause for internal Russian investigations. This halt presents a substantial capability gap in contested areas, potentially increasing risks for Russian aircraft supporting ground forces.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian troops made recent gains near Kreminna, as evidenced by geolocated footage showing advances east of Terny and south of Bilohorivka. These developments are part of ongoing skirmishes along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with continued engagements reported northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka, Lake Lyman, and Petropavlivka; southeast near Tabaivka; west near Yampolivka and Terny; and south near Bilohorivka.
Russian troops reportedly made progress near Bakhmut, particularly west in Ivanivske, although these claims lack visual confirmation. The battlefront remains unchanged around Bakhmut, with ongoing conflicts to the northeast near Rozdolivka, northwest near Bohdanivka, southwest near Klishchiivka and Andriivka, and south near Pivdenne.
Russian forces have made advancements near Avdiivka, with geolocated footage showing progress in Orlivka and Tonenke, west of Avdiivka. Despite conflicting reports among Russian milbloggers about control over Tonenke, there’s no visual confirmation of claimed advances in other nearby areas like Stepove, Novobakhmutivka, and Nevelske. The battle continues with ongoing engagements in several directions around Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces have rotated a brigade from the eastern front for restoration, indicating ongoing troop management.
Ongoing battles were reported west and southwest of Donetsk City, particularly near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian military bloggers have claimed advancements in these areas, though no visual evidence supports these assertions. Furthermore, Ukrainian minefields are said to be hindering Russian advances west of Donetsk City.
In the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, there were ongoing clashes without any shifts in the frontline. Russian attempts to attack near Urozhaine, south of Velyka Novosilka, were unsuccessful. Despite claims of Russian progress near Marfopil and Hulyaipole, no visual proof has been provided.
The western Zaporizhia Oblast witnessed ongoing skirmishes near Robotyne and Verbove, with a noted decrease in combat activity near Robotyne. The Ukrainian General Staff recorded a single unsuccessful Russian attack in the vicinity.
Russian troops achieved slight advances near Krynky, as part of ongoing conflicts on the east bank of Kherson Oblast. This progress, highlighted by recent geolocated footage, underscores the continued military activity in the region.
Russian military units in occupied Crimea are employing deceptive tactics, such as using fake positions and radio communications, to confuse Ukrainian reconnaissance. This strategy, noted by Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets, is a response to concerns over ongoing Ukrainian strikes.
Human Costs Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of at least eleven people and injuries to another thirteen:
- A Russian drone strike on Odesa resulted in the death of at least eight confirmed deaths. The strike targeted a multi-story building, damaging 18 apartments and trapping residents. Among the victims were a woman and her three-month-old baby. Rescue efforts continue, with eight people reported injured, including a child, and five individuals rescued from the rubble.
- A Russian attack on the village of Primorske in southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast resulted in one fatality.
- A Russian assault on the village of Stanislav in Kherson Oblast on March 2 resulted in the death of a 54-year-old man who was outside on the street.
- Russian drone strikes on Kharkiv around midnight resulted in damage to several houses, five garages, and 17 cars. Three individuals sought medical help for acute stress reactions following the attack.
- An attack on Velykyi Burluk village in Kharkiv Oblast’s Kupiansk district resulted in the death of a 76-year-old woman.
- Two individuals were injured in Siversk, Donetsk Oblast, due to Russian attacks.
Rescuers remove the rubble of a residential building destroyed by a Russian drone attack on Odesa
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that 960 Russian force casualties were recorded in the previous day alone.
Ukraine News
Overnight on March 1 to 2, Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, utilizing three Kh-59/35 missiles and 17 Shahed drones from various locations, including occupied territories. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted 14 drones and two missiles, preventing strikes in several oblasts. Despite these efforts, Russian forces hit residential areas in Odesa City and Shevchenkove Hromada in Mykolaiv Oblast, causing damage.
President Volodymyr Zelensky urgently called for faster weapon transfers to Ukraine, criticizing the “political games and disputes” among allies as hindering the nation’s defense capabilities. This plea followed a deadly drone attack in Odesa by Russia, resulting in at least eight casualties, including young children, and highlighting the dire consequences of delays in military aid. Zelensky emphasized the global availability of air defense systems capable of countering threats like Shahed drones and missiles, underscoring the critical need for such support to protect lives. Amid ongoing attacks on cities like Kharkiv and Odesa, Ukraine faces acute ammunition shortages, with significant U.S. funding stalled in Congress, exacerbating the challenge of safeguarding its citizens.
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced personnel changes among brigade commanders on the eastern front due to actions compromising soldier safety. Since taking over from Valerii Zaluzhnyi on February 8, amidst challenging battlefield conditions and stalled U.S. military aid, Syrskyi has focused on leadership’s role in unit performance. He emphasized the importance of commanders’ training, experience, and decision-making, noting that specialists have been sent to assist underperforming brigades. Syrskyi praised several units for their combat effectiveness, including the 54th, 25th, 47th, and 79th Brigades, for their achievements in recent engagements. A brigade, after two years in continuous battle, was moved to the rear for recuperation, likely referring to the 110th Mechanized Brigade. Following his appointment, Syrskyi prioritized efficient military supply distribution and strategically withdrew forces from Avdiivka to prevent encirclement and protect troops.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine is set to receive the first batch of 800,000 artillery shells from a Czech-led initiative “within weeks,” aiming to mitigate the ammunition shortage amid delayed U.S. aid. This effort, highlighted by Czech Deputy Defense Minister Jan Jires, involves 500,000 155 mm and 300,000 122 mm shells identified outside Europe, with financial support from countries including Canada, Denmark, and Belgium, plus a significant funding pledge from the Netherlands. This initiative represents a proactive response to the urgent need for artillery ammunition in Ukraine, as the U.S. legislative process slows additional support. Despite the U.S. having supplied 2 million rounds of 155 mm shells since the war’s escalation, delays have impacted Ukrainian forces, notably in the loss of Avdiivka. The origin of the shells involves countries potentially including South Korea, Turkey, or South Africa, although specifics remain unconfirmed.
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen urged Western allies to swiftly increase support for Ukraine, emphasizing the urgent need for more weapons. Kyiv faces critical ammunition shortages due to stalled U.S. funding, prompting calls for immediate action. European countries are urged to step up arms production. Plans to boost artillery ammunition production in Finland were previously announced in December 2023 to aid Ukraine. Czech President Petr Pavel identified available shells for Ukraine, with potential shipments expected soon.
The President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine condemned Russia’s attack on Odesa, which killed at least eight people, including children.
German military intelligence is investigating a leaked conversation, reportedly between German officers, that was made public by Russian state media, as per ARD’s report on March 2. The conversation, published by RT’s Margarita Simonyan on March 1, allegedly discusses the potential delivery of Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine and training Ukrainian troops on their use, including mentioning potential targets like the Crimean Bridge. The German Defense Ministry acknowledged the interception of Air Force personnel’s discussion but could not confirm the authenticity of the recording or transcript circulating online. Germany’s Air Force Chief Ingo Gerhartz was reportedly involved in the conversation, aimed at briefing Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has described the leak as “a very serious matter” under intensive investigation. This incident adds tension to the debate over supplying Ukraine with Taurus missiles, which Scholz opposes due to concerns of escalating Germany’s involvement in the war.
Lithuanian Customs set a deadline of March 11 for owners of Russian-registered vehicles to re-register them in Lithuania or leave the EU. The ban, in line with recommendations from the European Commission, prohibits entry to vehicles with Russian plates in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Failure to comply by March 11 incurs fines and car confiscation. Exceptions apply for Russian citizens transiting to/from Kaliningrad with a valid document. Poland and Finland have also implemented similar entry bans for Russian vehicles.
Russia News
Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of Leningrad Oblast, reported that air defenses downed “aerial targets” over the Gulf of Finland, following media reports of explosions near St. Petersburg’s Bronka port. Despite these claims, no casualties or damage were reported in the city’s Lomonosovsky District. Concurrently, flight operations at Pulkovo Airport faced temporary restrictions. This incident adds to a series of reported drone strikes across Russian territories, including Belgorod, Bryansk, Oryol, and Leningrad oblasts. Additionally, an unspecified incident early on March 2 led to the damage of two buildings in St. Petersburg, with emergency evacuations and services activated. Six individuals sought medical attention, with one hospitalized. The involvement of a drone, suggested by visual evidence, remains unverified, and Ukrainian officials have not commented.
Traffic on the Crimean Bridge was halted early on March 3 following reports of explosions near Feodosia in occupied Crimea. The closure occurred around 3:40 a.m. local time, shortly after local reports of explosions by an oil depot. The reason for the shutdown has not been disclosed, and Russian authorities have yet to comment. The Kerch Bridge, a vital link between Russia and Crimea since its completion in 2018, has been a key logistics route and a target in the ongoing conflict. This incident follows intensified Ukrainian actions in Crimea, including recent strikes against Russian naval assets, signaling continued military pressure on critical Russian infrastructure in the region.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has declined an offer from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to facilitate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Speaking at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, Lavrov mentioned the absence of dialogue initiatives that align with Russian interests, continuing a pattern where Russian officials express nominal openness to talks but seek to shift negotiation responsibilities onto the West. This stance is seen as an attempt to secure Western concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity before genuine dialogue begins.
Russia has recognized Armenia’s reduced involvement in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a shift from its previous stance of overlooking Armenian efforts to distance itself. This acknowledgment came from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who highlighted the need for Armenia to clarify its CSTO status following Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s critique that the CSTO had not met its security obligations to Armenia, especially noted in 2021 and 2022. Pashinyan also mentioned Armenia’s lack of a permanent CSTO representative and its absence from CSTO activities for an extended period. This development reflects Armenia’s growing disillusionment with its security relationship with Russia, amid broader questions about the effectiveness and commitments of the CSTO.
During Alexei Navalny’s funeral in Moscow on March 1, Russian authorities showed unusual tolerance for public anti-war expressions, with reports of up to 16,500 attendees at the Borisovsky Cemetery and chants of anti-war slogans. Despite this, 15 individuals in Moscow and 89 in other cities were detained in connection to the event. The subsequent day saw continued, but less pronounced, public displays of remembrance and anti-war sentiment. This approach by the Kremlin, involving a limited security operation by the FSB and MVD, suggests a strategy to avoid provoking broader public dissent while maintaining an image of control ahead of the presidential elections on March 17.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov visited a shipbuilding site and a new military hospital construction project in Dagestan, part of Russia’s Southern Military District. The initiatives include developing mooring facilities for the Caspian Flotilla and constructing a significant military hospital in Makhachkala, signaling Russia’s efforts to bolster its military infrastructure in the region.
Russia’s Allies
As of mid-February 2024, there has been a pause in the sea transfer of North Korean weapons to Russia, with no Russian ships docking at North Korea’s Rajin Port since February 12. Satellite imagery analysis by NK Pro revealed that Russian vessels had previously made at least 32 trips from Rajin Port to Russia’s ports in Primorsky Krai since August 2023, transporting ammunition and weapons. The most recent shipments were observed in early February, but no further maritime activity has been detected, suggesting potential production or logistical challenges. Additionally, it’s noted that North Korea might still be supplying weapons to Russia via alternative routes like air or rail, underscoring both countries’ deepening military and economic ties amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. South Korea’s Defense Minister highlighted that North Korea has sent an estimated 6,700 shipping containers of ammunition to Russia recently, indicating the scale of support for Russia’s war effort.
The Ukrainian intelligence has disclosed a disagreement between Belarus and Russia over the pricing of components for Grad multiple rocket launch systems, leading Belarus to supply Russia with lower quality parts. Belarus’s defense company Volatavto reportedly agreed to supply these components to Russia’s Special Design Bureau at a significantly marked-up price, opting to reduce costs by using subcontractors lacking proper licenses for production. Both companies involved are subject to international sanctions.
Slovakian Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar met Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Turkey to discuss international issues, including Ukraine, as stated by the Russian Foreign Ministry. This meeting is noteworthy as it comes amid strained relations between the West and Russia due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The current Slovakian government, led by Prime Minister Robert Fico, has displayed skepticism towards Ukraine, halting arms supplies and reversing bans on cooperation with Russia and Belarus. Fico has also expressed opposition to Ukraine’s NATO accession.
Hungary’s acting speaker Sandor Lezsak signed off on Sweden’s NATO accession after Hungarian parliament’s ratification. The legislation now awaits promulgation by acting president Laszlo Kover. Sweden applied to join NATO in 2022, delayed by objections from Turkey and Hungary. The ratification followed Hungary’s approval after a meeting between Prime Ministers Orban and Kristersson. Sweden is set to become NATO’s 32nd member.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
At the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov advanced narratives suggesting Moldova is following Ukraine’s pre-2014 approach to its breakaway region, Transnistria. Lavrov criticized Moldova for alleged discrimination against Russian speakers and economic pressures on Transnistria, hinting at Russia’s support for the region’s request for “defense/protection” from Russia. These statements are seen as part of Russia’s strategy to destabilize Moldova and hinder its efforts to join the European Union, especially ahead of upcoming EU accession talks and Moldova’s presidential election later in 2024.
President Vladimir Putin presented Russia as a harmonious, multicultural nation in a speech at the World Youth Festival. This portrayal contrasts with reported increases in anti-migrant feelings and religious tensions within Russia, as well as the persecution of non-Russian Orthodox Christian communities in occupied Ukraine and Russia.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com