Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes targeting Rostov Oblast, potentially hitting a Russian aircraft plant refurbishing A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft. Meanwhile, Russian sources shared footage claiming to have destroyed a Patriot air defense system in eastern Ukraine, though these claims await confirmation. Additionally, US officials revealed Russia’s consideration of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 2022, coinciding with an intense information campaign aimed at the West. Amidst this, Armenian officials expressed Armenia’s contemplation of seeking EU membership amidst strained relations with Russia. Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized openness to negotiations with Russia contingent upon developing a peace plan, as Turkey continues its own negotiation efforts. Russian forces also made confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka, while satellite imagery suggests a significant reduction in Russia’s tank strategic reserves.
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Situation On The Ground And Air
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced west of Kreminna amidst ongoing positional fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Footage published on March 8 showed recent Russian advancements east of Terny, west of Kreminna. Fighting persisted in various areas, including northeast and southeast of Kupyansk, west of Kreminna, and south of Kreminna.
Positional fighting persisted near Bakhmut without confirmed frontline changes. A Russian milblogger claimed slight Russian advancements within Ivanivske, but these are unverified. Fighting also occurred northwest, west, southwest, and south of Bakhmut.
According to Ukrainian forces, the situation near Avdiivka has stabilized, with Russian forces making only localized marginal advances as of March 8. However, Russian forces advanced west of Avdiivka, with geolocated footage showing further advancements in central Orlivka and fields south of Tonenke. Reports indicate Russian forces advanced up to 500 meters in depth in some areas. Positional fighting persisted northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka.
Positional fighting persisted west and southwest of Donetsk City without confirmed frontline changes. The fighting occurred near Krasnohorivka to the west and Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Volodymyrivka to the southwest.
Positional engagements continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast without confirmed frontline changes. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources reported engagements near Robotyne and Verbove, with Russian forces reportedly slowing their offensive due to Ukrainian drone strikes and challenges in clearing Ukrainian trenches.
Both Ukrainian and Russian sources confirm that Ukrainian forces are holding positions on the eastern bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky.
Despite efforts to relocate some naval assets, the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, remains the only one capable of repairing certain types of ships. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted that Russian forces are currently repairing various ships at this base, including large landing ships and corvettes. Additionally, the project 775 Yamal Ropucha-class landing ship is undergoing preparations for sea trials after repairs.
Human Cost Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of two people and injuries to eight others:
- Russian forces bombed Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne in Donetsk Oblast on March 9, killing one person and injuring four others. A 46-year-old man died in the attack on Chasiv Yar. Four civilians sustained injuries, including shrapnel wounds and a mine explosion-induced ankle injury. Multiple buildings were damaged.
- Russian forces bombed a village near Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in the death of a 16-year-old boy and injuring another person. There was damage to a house, outbuilding, power line, and gas pipeline. The injured individual, a 20-year-old male resident, was hospitalized in severe condition.
- Russian forces bombed Kherson, a southern city in Ukraine, injuring three civilians. They received medical treatment for their injuries.
- Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast 45 times on March 9, hitting 11 communities, including Yunakivka, Khotin, and Mykolaiv. At least 222 explosions were recorded, with mortar, artillery, and drone attacks reported. No casualties yet reported.
The aftermath of a Russian strike on Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine News
Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on Rostov Oblast overnight on March 8-9, potentially hitting a Russian aircraft plant. Russian MoD claimed to intercept 41 drones with eyewitnesses reporting at least five explosions. Footage showed an explosion near Beriev Aircraft Plant in Taganrog, where Russian A-50 aircraft are refurbished. However, confirmation of damage to A-50 or facilities is pending, with Ukrainian officials yet to comment and ISW unable to verify.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 15 drones from Crimea and Krasnodar Krai, with 12 drones shot down over Ukrainian regions. Additionally, Russian strikes hit an industrial site in Dnipropetrovsk and a substation in Zaporizhia. The Southern Operational Command reported a missile launched at Odesa City, which landed outside the city. Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted the use of North Korean KN-23 missiles by elements of the Russian 112th Missile Brigade in recent strike series.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces destroyed a Patriot air defense system in eastern Ukraine, circulating footage of a strike. The Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of a strike near Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, purportedly hitting a Ukrainian S-300 air defense missile launcher. Additional footage showed destroyed trucks used as bases for Patriot launchers. While Russian state media reported two Patriot systems destroyed, confirmation is pending, with ISW yet to observe evidence of the destruction.
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukraine is open to negotiations with Russia once a peace plan is developed, with Turkey also promoting a negotiation platform. Zelensky stated that a peace summit would be held after a peace plan is formulated, with Ukraine planning to host the first Peace Formula Summit in Switzerland in 2024. However, analysts believe Russia may not be genuinely interested in negotiations, seeking to impose its terms on Ukraine.
Pope Francis encouraged Ukraine to negotiate peace with Russia, emphasizing the importance of dialogue to prevent further escalation. His comments came amid criticism for advocating negotiation over surrender, clarified by the Vatican as a call for ceasefire and diplomatic resolution. President Zelensky of Ukraine rejected a peace summit proposed by Turkish President Erdogan, insisting on Russia’s withdrawal as a prerequisite for talks, a condition Moscow has rejected.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk didn’t resolve farmer protests against Ukrainian agricultural imports. Farmers oppose Ukrainian imports and the EU’s Green Deal. Tusk ruled out closing the Ukraine border, despite prior talks. Farmers received financial aid proposals but plan another protest on March 20. Poland argues Ukrainian imports harm local farmers, but Ukraine disagrees. Warsaw banned some Ukrainian products. Ukraine’s PM says the border blockade costs Warsaw more economically.
Polish protestors near the Ukraine border plan to temporarily reopen traffic at the Korczowa-Krakovets crossing, according to Andriy Demchenko of Ukraine’s Border Guard Service. The blockade might end on March 13, but uncertainty remains. Currently, 2,300 trucks are stuck in queues. The protests, led by Polish farmers, oppose the influx of Ukrainian agricultural products and EU policies. Six checkpoints are blocked, affecting trade and causing tensions between Kyiv and Warsaw. Ukraine claims the blockade hurts Poland economically, with minimal impact on its own exports.
Ukraine’s Allies
UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron opposed sending Western troops, including for training, to Ukraine. His statement contrasted French President Macron’s suggestion of potential Western military presence. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s office clarified existing support in Ukraine but ruled out large-scale deployment. Cameron emphasized training missions abroad, cautioning against creating targets for Russia. While France and Canada discussed non-combat roles, Russia’s President Putin warned of “tragic consequences” if NATO troops entered Ukraine.
House Republicans are crafting their own aid bill for Ukraine, aiming to expedite assistance delivery. One version suggests treating nonmilitary aid as a loan. Another proposal, the REPO Act, involves using seized Russian assets to aid Ukraine. The plans are in early stages, driven by a deadline before a potential government shutdown on March 22. While the Senate approved a $95 billion funding package with $60 billion for Ukraine, the House, under Johnson, stalled it. Disagreements over aid have prolonged without U.S. assistance to Ukraine, causing implications. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan opposes a loan, citing worsening economic problems. Senator Lindsey Graham supports the loan idea, influenced by Trump’s suggestion on Truth Social.
The next Ramstein-format summit of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will be on March 19 in Germany, hosted by the U.S. Air Force in Europe. The UDCG, involving over 50 countries including NATO members, coordinates military support for Ukraine since April 2022. Discussions will address Ukraine’s defense needs and security concerns. The previous summit focused on urgent needs like artillery and air defenses. After the last summit, allied coalitions were launched to support Ukraine’s air defense and drone capabilities.
Russia News
CNN reported that the US was actively preparing for the possibility of a Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine in late 2022. This preparation involved intelligence gathering and strategic planning, with concerns particularly focused on potential triggers for such an attack, like the advance of Ukrainian forces on Kherson. Despite tensions and threats, Russian nuclear use in Ukraine remains highly unlikely, according to assessments.
A Russian student at Moscow State University got a 10-day jail term for renaming a Wi-Fi network “Slava Ukraini,” a Ukrainian national salute. The student was convicted of displaying “symbols of extremist organizations” under Russian law. The arrest came after a police officer found the network name and seized the router. The court claimed the name promoted pro-Ukrainian sentiment, labeling it as “public demonstration of Nazi symbolism.” This incident reflects the crackdown on dissent in Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine, with false claims of a “neo-Nazi regime” used to justify actions.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Open-source analysis suggests Russia has removed 25 to 40 percent of its tank strategic reserves from open-air storage, though this is unverified by ISW. Dara Massicot of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace believes Russia likely retained its best equipment, but dwindling inventory may occur if current operations continue. ISW notes that recent tank “production” numbers mainly reflect restored tanks from storage, implying potential shortages in the future if losses persist and production remains steady.
On March 8, Reuters reported that the Indian Central Bureau of Investigation uncovered a human trafficking network luring Indian citizens to work in Russia, only to force them into joining the Russian military. Approximately 35 Indian citizens were coerced into military service after being promised work opportunities. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs is aware of Indian nationals serving in the Russian military and is working to secure the early discharge of 20 Indian nationals employed as support staff for Russian forces.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces have potentially established their first specialized drone brigade called the “Grom-Kaskad” UAV Brigade. The brigade consists of over 820 personnel and up to 40 UAV crews operating across Ukraine. Mashovets noted that the brigade is formed from existing units and operates various types of drones. This marks the first known instance of Russia forming a specialized drone unit at the brigade level.
The Russian Air Force has reportedly begun using guided glide bombs in attacks on Ukraine. Russian milbloggers claim that these bombs, equipped with universal interspecific glide ammunition (UMPB), have jet engines, extending the range of FAB-250/500 bombs from 40-60 to 80-95 kilometers. This marks a shift from unguided to guided glide bombs in Russian airstrikes.
Russia’s Allies
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russian military conducted 22 joint aerial reconnaissance flights with Belarusian forces along the Belarusian border with Poland and Lithuania. These flights involved up to two Russian Su-24 aircraft from the 4th Reconnaissance Aviation Squadron and at least one aircraft from the Belarusian 61st Fighter Airbase.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Donald Trump in Florida on March 8 and expressed support for Trump’s presidential aspirations. Orban and Trump discussed border security and peace efforts, with Orban suggesting Trump’s return to the White House could bring peace to Ukraine. Orban’s alignment with Trump’s views on Ukraine reflects his broader stance on international relations, which includes friendly ties with Russia.
Armenia is considering EU membership to strengthen ties with the West amid tensions with Russia. Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan mentioned this in a recent interview. Armenia’s relationship with Russia has soured due to its perceived inaction during Azerbaijan’s 2023 offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh. Prime Minister Pashinyan has criticized Russia, deepening ties with Western nations. Armenia’s move towards the EU signals a potential shift away from Russian influence.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com