Summary of the day: A Ukrainian military official confirmed Russian strikes in Ukraine using advanced guided glide bombs. The Russian Navy saw a change in leadership, with Admiral Alexander Moiseev taking over as Commander-in-Chief. In occupied Ukraine, early voting for Russia’s presidential election commenced, coinciding with a pro-Putin march organized by Chechen officials. Despite Russian efforts to disrupt it, over 1,000 civilian ships passed through Ukraine’s vital grain corridor in the Black Sea. Additionally, Russian ultranationalist figures received honors from the Ministry of Defense, while Russian forces made strategic advances near Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
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Situation On The Ground And Air
According to the UK Defense Ministry’s report, Ukraine has significantly increased defensive fortifications along various parts of the front line, including anti-tank barriers, trenches, and minefields. This defensive strategy aims to impede Russian advances, making it challenging for them to achieve significant gains without incurring heavy losses. President Zelensky highlighted the robust defenses in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, urging for uniform fortification standards across all sectors. Ukrainian forces have reinforced Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, with strong defensive structures amid renewed pressure from Russian troops.
According to Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavria Group of forces, Russian forces are increasingly using ammunition containing poisonous chemicals on the front line. Over the past week, they have dropped such grenades from drones about 50 times, with 15 drops recorded in the past day alone. These chemicals are employed when conventional artillery or drone strikes fail to take Ukrainian trenches. Ukraine has documented over 400 cases of Russia’s use of such munitions from February 2022 to December 2023. The Russian military primarily uses grenades like K-51, RGR, and Drofa-PM, dropped from attack drones. Ukraine reported Russia’s use of a new type of gas grenade, RG-VO, containing an unknown chemical substance on December 14. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) confirmed Russian naval infantry units’ use of prohibited chemical weapons in the village of Krynky, violating the 1925 Geneva Protocol.
Russian forces in Ukraine are using upgraded glide bombs, converting Soviet-era unguided bombs into guided ones. These bombs, equipped with a GLONASS/GPS guidance system, are launched from both aircraft and ground-based rocket systems. Russia aims to mass-produce these bombs, extending their range to 80-90 kilometers, allowing for deeper strikes without risking detection by Ukrainian air forces.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Positional engagements persisted in several areas near Kupyansk and Kreminna with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Positional battles continued northeast of Bakhmut with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces reportedly advanced in certain areas, but visual confirmation is lacking. Engagements also occurred southwest and east of Siversk, with specific Russian detachments identified near Spirne. In another area west of Bakhmut, Russian forces marginally advanced in eastern Ivanivske, while battles persisted in surrounding areas.
Russian forces recently made slight advances northwest of Avdiivka near Berdychi and west of Avdiivka in Orlivka. Geolocated footage confirms these advancements. Positional battles persisted in various areas, with specific Russian units reportedly involved near Berdychi and in the Avdiivka direction.
Russian and Ukrainian forces clashed in positional battles west and southwest of Donetsk City. Russian Su-34 fighter jets were reportedly involved in air strikes using unguided glide bombs in the southern Donetsk direction. Specific Russian units, including artillery and motorized rifle brigades, were identified near Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka.
Russian forces made recent advancements southwest of Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast, confirmed by geolocated footage. Additionally, positional battles took place southwest of Velyka Novosilka near Novodarivka and Levadne along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border.
Positional fighting persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed changes to the frontline. Fighting occurred near Robotyne and Verbove, where Ukrainian forces are reportedly preparing for counterattacks. Russian forces are said to be using off-road vehicles due to Ukrainian destruction of standard military vehicles.
Ukrainian forces hold positions in east bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky. Russian forces refrained from combat operations for the second consecutive day, focusing instead on reconnaissance, artillery, and drone activities, according to Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command.
Human Cost Of War
On March 8, Major Andrii Tkachenko, a fighter aircraft pilot, was killed in combat in Donetsk Oblast, according to Plast, a scouting organization. Tkachenko, a member of Plast, was reported dead by the organization’s branch in Sambir, Lviv Oblast. No further details were provided. Ukraine’s Air Force has not commented on Tkachenko death.
Major Andrii Tkachenko was killed during a combat mission on March 8, 2024
Georgian volunteer fighters Nodar Nasirov and Giorgi Gogiashvili died in combat in Ukraine, as reported by the Georgian Legion on March 9. The organization expressed condolences to their families. Over 50 Georgian volunteers have been killed in the conflict since February 2022.
Georgian volunteer fighters Nodar Nasirov and Georgy Gogiashvili have been killed in Ukraine
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 3 people and injuries to 12 others:
- Russian troops launched a drone attack on a residential area in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, overnight, killing two people, according to regional governor Vadym Filashkin. Two bodies were recovered from the rubble in the morning.
- The Russian attack on Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast injured 12 people. Russian forces launched three S-300 missiles at the city overnight, causing heavy damage to residential buildings. Acting head of the local city administration Yurii Tretiak reported significant destruction, including ten heavily damaged high-rise buildings and one uninhabitable nine-story building entrance.
- Russian troops carried out an artillery attack on Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the death of a 66-year-old man.
The aftermath of Russian attacks in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast
The aftermath of Russian attacks in Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported 900 casualties among Russian forces in the past day.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched drone and missile strikes against Ukraine overnight on March 9-10. Ukrainian officials reported four S-300 missile launches at Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts and 39 Shahed drones from Crimea and Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian forces destroyed 35 drones over multiple oblasts, and although two electrical substations were struck, energy supplies remained unaffected. An industrial facility in Odesa Oblast was also targeted.
Russian forces conducted a large drone attack on Odesa overnight, damaging infrastructure and homes. Air defense units repelled waves of drones from the Black Sea, shooting down 10. There were no reported casualties. The attack caused a fire at an infrastructure facility, damaged administrative buildings, and shattered windows in homes. Emergency workers extinguished the fire, and debris from fallen drones caused additional damage to outbuildings.
Russian kamikaze drone attacks damaged two energy substations in southern and central Ukraine on March 9, according to Ukrenergo. Despite the damage, electricity supply to consumers was not affected, and repairs are underway. The exact locations of the substations were not specified.
President Zelensky disagreed with Pope Francis’ suggestion for Ukrainians to negotiate with Russia, asserting that Ukraine’s troops are crucial for Europe’s safety. Zelensky praised Ukrainian military’s bravery and thanked French President Macron for his support. He also highlighted the success of Ukrainian air defense units in shooting down enemy drones, despite losses and casualties.
Despite Russian efforts to undermine it, over 1,000 civilian ships have used Ukraine’s “grain corridor” in the Black Sea. US Ambassador Bridget Brink reported that these ships delivered around 30 million tons of cargo, including grain, to global markets. Russian forces targeted Ukrainian grain infrastructure to deter maritime traffic through the corridor.
Ukrainian journalist Mstyslav Chernov’s film “20 Days in Mariupol” won the Oscar for Best Documentary at the 96th Academy Awards. The documentary captures the Russian siege of Mariupol during the early days of the invasion. Chernov expressed mixed feelings about the win, wishing he never had to document the tragedy. The film, shot in January 2023, has received several awards since its release and sheds light on the devastation caused by Russia’s siege of Mariupol.
Vitaly Shabunin, head of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, stated on March 9 that the State Investigation Bureau had initiated criminal cases against him for alleged draft evasion and forgery. Shabunin, who joined the Ukrainian army as a volunteer during Russia’s invasion in 2022, denies the accusations, considering them politically motivated by President Zelensky’s deputy chief of staff Oleh Tatarov. Tatarov and the State Investigation Bureau were unavailable for comment. The case was first reported on March 7 by journalist Volodymyr Boiko. Shabunin shared his military ID card, confirming his service start date. He believes the attacks against him are part of a broader trend targeting critics of the government.
Ukraine’s Allies
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto opposes the idea of deploying Western troops to Ukraine, stating that it could hinder diplomatic efforts. His comments follow French President Macron’s suggestion of possible Western military presence in Ukraine. Crosetto emphasizes the need for diplomatic solutions alongside military support, highlighting that unilateral escalation may impede progress. He also notes that statements by France and Poland on troop deployment do not represent NATO’s collective stance. Crosetto underscores the importance of comprehensive support for Ukraine and calls for intensified diplomatic efforts.
Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk will visit the U.S. on March 12, the 25th anniversary of Poland’s NATO accession, to seek continued U.S. military aid for Ukraine. They will meet with President Biden at the White House to reaffirm support for Ukraine. Duda will also meet with key Congressional leaders. The visit comes amid a partisan deadlock in Congress over $61 billion in aid to Ukraine. Poland emphasizes the need for Western allies to invest in security amidst growing Russian aggression. After Washington, Duda will visit Georgia and Brussels.
Japanese and U.S. leaders plan to meet in Washington, D.C. on April 10 to bolster their defense industry cooperation, aiming to increase arms shipments to Ukraine. Japan’s revised laws now allow it to replenish U.S. military stocks, enabling support for Ukraine. The meeting signifies Japan’s significant shift in its pacifist stance. While direct arms exports to conflict zones remain restricted, Japan’s aid indirectly aids Ukraine. The focus of the summit will extend beyond Ukraine, addressing concerns about potential aggression from China. Talks may include expanding defense production collaboration and Japanese maintenance support for U.S. military equipment. Despite constitutional constraints, Japan has provided substantial non-lethal aid to Ukraine.
Life In Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities have opened early voting in occupied Ukraine for Russia’s presidential election, running until March 14. The voting began in Donetsk Oblast and will continue in other areas, with reports of door-to-door campaigning in Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian officials believe there are intentions to falsify votes to support Vladimir Putin and legitimize the occupation.
Russia News
Admiral Alexander Moiseev has replaced Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov as the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, possibly due to new threats, including recent Ukrainian strikes near occupied Crimea. Moiseev previously commanded Russia’s Northern Fleet. The Russian Defense Ministry has not commented on the change. Reports suggest that around 20% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was destroyed by December 2023. Recent Ukrainian attacks have targeted Russian naval assets, including the flagship cruiser Moskva and a Black Sea Fleet patrol ship named Sergey Kotov. Ukraine’s military intelligence agency allegedly orchestrated the attack on Sergey Kotov. Additionally, Ukrainian partisans claim that Russian ship engines are being moved from Crimea to a naval base in Novorossiysk due to successful Ukrainian strikes in Crimea.
Pulkovo International Airport in St. Petersburg halted operations briefly due to an alleged drone attack, according to Russian state news agency Ria Novosti. The incident occurred near the airport, with a drone reportedly shot down near the village of Fornovoso without causing any casualties. While such attacks are common in regions bordering Ukraine, they are rare in St. Petersburg. The airspace over the airport was temporarily closed for safety reasons. Local media reported a fire near the airport, with two injuries reported. Authorities in Novgorod Oblast claimed to have shot down three drones. Ukrainian officials have not commented on the incident.
A fire erupted at an oil depot in Russia’s Kursk Oblast after a Ukrainian drone was shot down, as claimed by Roman Starovoit, the region’s governor. No details were provided regarding casualties or damage. The incident prompted firefighting and emergency services to respond. Reports from a Russian Telegram channel suggested damage to a 3,000-ton tank at the depot and a fire at an oil pipeline in Russia’s Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. However, this information remains unverified. Similar incidents have been reported across Russia since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, impacting fuel networks and military operations.
Chechen officials organized a march in Grozny supporting Vladimir Putin’s candidacy in the upcoming presidential election. Over 150,000 Chechens attended, organized by Khadizhat Kadyrova, daughter of Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov. The event reflects Kadyrov’s efforts to maintain support from both his constituency and Putin.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Prominent Russian ultranationalists praised Russian volunteers and mobilized personnel, likely aiming to address ongoing concerns despite their unequal treatment in the Russian military. Alexander Khodakovsky, Deputy Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s Main Directorate of Rosgvardia, lauded volunteers for their sacrifices in Ukraine, while another milblogger hailed them as Russia’s “backbone.”
Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit stated that 3,500 volunteers serve in the Kursk Oblast People’s Militia. They patrol public areas, bridges, and industrial sites, aiding Russian security forces. The militia was formed in late 2022 due to concerns about potential Ukrainian ground assaults. Though like militias in neighboring regions, it primarily conducts auxiliary patrols.
A Russian milblogger noted issues with newly deployed personnel and drone capabilities in the Avdiivka direction. Many new Russian contract servicemen arrive with unrealistic expectations about the conflict in Ukraine, relying heavily on air support and propaganda claims. Additionally, Donetsk Peoples Republic elements favor locally produced drones over those procured by Russian groups due to wavelength vulnerabilities. The blogger claimed that a malfunctioning Russian drone alerted Ukrainian forces during battles, prompting electronic warfare activation.
Russia is ramping up production of FAB-1500 guided glide bombs for use in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat. These bombs are cheaper than missiles, but production remains costly and may face delays. Recent reports suggest Russia has begun mass production of these bombs. Ukrainian soldiers near Krasnohorivka report heavy airstrikes with FAB-1500 bombs replacing previous shelling. Justin Bronk from the Royal United Services Institute notes Russia may face bottlenecks in production but has ample materials for the bombs.
Russia’s Allies
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban praised former U.S. President Donald Trump as “a man of peace” after their recent meeting in Florida. Orban highlighted Trump’s commitment to ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. Both leaders share a vision of peace in Ukraine that involves withdrawing international military support for Kyiv. Orban’s support for Trump aligns with his stance against aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. Orban stated that Trump’s plans for ending the war align with Hungary’s national interests. He also gave a speech at a conservative think tank in the U.S., emphasizing Hungary’s conservative values.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
The Russian Ministry of Defense honored ultranationalist Vladimir Grubnik with the “For Military Cooperation” medal, likely as part of a Kremlin effort to coopt critical milbloggers. Grubnik, a supporter of imprisoned ultranationalist Igor Girkin, is known for his online advocacy and volunteer work. The award reflects a strategy to regain control over dissenting voices in the Russian information space, particularly those supporting extremist views.
A Kremlin-linked Russian milblogger suggests that the Moldovan-French defense cooperation agreement indicates France’s intention to deploy military personnel to Moldova, including Transnistria. This aligns with Kremlin efforts to undermine Moldova’s EU accession process.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com