Summary of the day: A Ukrainian military observer provided insights into Russian force generation and defense industrial base capacities, aligning with previous assessments. However, concerns were raised about the sustainability of Russia’s increased defense production due to labor shortages and sanctions-induced limitations on acquiring military items. Additionally, reports surfaced of resumed transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia, and Ukrainian sources highlighted potential violations of the Chemical Weapons Convention by Russian forces. Diplomatic tensions flared as Moldova summoned the Russian ambassador over polling station claims, while France considered forming a coalition to support Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia, China, and Iran prepared for joint naval exercises, and Putin signed a bill to tighten control over perceived foreign agents ahead of the presidential election, amidst ongoing military developments in Ukraine.
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Situation On The Ground And Air
Russian forces are reportedly using grenades containing chemical substances in the Zaporizhia direction, potentially violating the Chemical Weapons Convention. Ukrainian military spokesperson Captain Dmytro Lykhovyi stated that at least 60 such grenades were used between March 4 and March 10, mainly in Zaporizhia. These grenades likely contain chloropicrin, a lung-damaging substance prohibited by the CWC, to which Russia is a signatory.
President Zelensky announced on Telegram that Ukraine is constructing 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) of fortifications after a meeting with military leaders. The project addresses concerns about the slow pace of fortification progress raised in the fall of 2023. Prime Minister Shmyhal reported allocating approximately $466 million for this initiative. Zelensky expressed satisfaction with the construction pace, emphasizing its importance amidst expectations of a potential Russian offensive in the spring.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have recently advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna area amidst ongoing engagements. Footage suggests Russian forces moved east of Terny. However, a Russian milblogger claims Ukrainian forces control Terny. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces confirm continued engagements in various areas.
Positional fighting continued in the Bakhmut area. Ukrainian forces may have advanced north of Bohdanivka, while Russian forces reportedly captured positions on the outskirts of Ivanivske. Fighting also occurred in other areas near Bakhmut, involving various Russian military units.
Positional fighting persisted west of Avdiivka, with no frontline changes reported. Russian forces allegedly advanced 280 meters along Myr Street in Orlivka, but confirmation is lacking. Claims suggest Russian forces captured most of Pervomaiske, though this remains unverified. Despite Ukrainian counterattacks, Russian assaults continue on the Berdychi-Orlivka-Tonenke line. Russian units in this area reportedly face challenges due to degraded capabilities and coordination issues.
Russian forces made slight advances west and southwest of Donetsk City, according to geolocated footage. The footage shows marginal advances north of Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, as well as southeast of Shevchenko. Positional fighting continued in the area near Krasnohorivka and the mentioned locations. Various Russian military units are reportedly operating in these areas.
Russian forces slightly advanced southwest of Velyka Novosilka amidst fighting in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Geolocated footage confirmed the advance southeast of Chervone. Positional fighting continued south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine and Staromayorske. Various Russian military units are active in the area.
Positional fighting persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with no frontline changes reported. Russian sources claimed capturing positions between Robotyne and Verbove, but verification is pending. Engagements also occurred near several locations in the area. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed Russian electronic warfare systems in the region.
Ukrainian forces hold limited positions in the east bank of Kherson Oblast. Fighting persisted in the area, notably near Krynky. According to Kherson Oblast administration head Vladimir Saldo, only scattered Ukrainian servicemen are left in Krynky.
Human Cost Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 3 people and injuries to 17 others:
- Russian troops attacked Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast three times, including with guided aerial bombs. Damage was reported to two houses and six outbuildings from a nighttime attack with multiple launch rocket systems. A 70-year-old woman was injured, and eight homes were damaged in the assault.
- The village of Hlushkivka in Kupiansk district (Kharkiv Oblast) was attacked, injuring three civilian men who were hospitalized.
- Russian forces launched S-300 guided missiles at Kutuzivka village near Kharkiv, but no casualties were reported.
- An early morning Russian drone attack damaged two multi-apartment buildings, a hotel, an infrastructure facility, and two cars in Kharkiv. No details on casualties reported.
- A Russian drone attack in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, killed two people and injured 12 others in a residential area.
- Russian forces targeted the town of Chasiv Yar, resulting in the death of one person.
- Russian troops attacked several settlements in Kherson Oblast, damaging eight houses, a multi-apartment building, and a car. One person was injured in the attacks.
- Russian troops attacked Nikopol with drones and shelled the Chervonohryhoriv community in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, damaging six houses, three outbuildings, a greenhouse, a gas pipeline, and power lines. No details on casualties reported.
The aftermath of the Russian drone attack on Kharkiv
Ukraine News
On the night of March 10-11, Ukrainian General Staff reported 25 Shahed-136/131 drones launched by Russian forces, with 15 shot down by Ukrainian forces. According to Ukrainian President Zelensky, since March 1, 175 Shahed drones have been launched by Russia, with 151 successfully shot down by Ukrainian forces. The drones caused damage to civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv and Odesa cities.
Zelensky told BFMTV that French troops won’t fight in Ukraine but can stay in France as long as Ukraine stands. This comes after Macron’s statement on the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, which the US, European allies, and NATO distanced themselves from. Zelensky noted the situation on the front line has improved, with Russia’s advance halted. Regarding Pope Francis’ call for peace talks, Zelensky emphasized the need for a ceasefire and diplomatic solution, not surrender. Vatican clarified the Pope’s stance, aiming for lasting peace through diplomacy.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry summoned Apostolic Nuncio Visvaldas Kulbokas over Pope Francis’ call for peace negotiations with Russia. The Ministry expressed disappointment and emphasized the need for global support for Ukraine’s defense. Ambassador Andrii Yurash clarified that the Pope’s views are personal and not reflective of the Vatican’s stance. President Zelensky, addressing the situation, praised Ukraine’s military chaplains, and highlighted Ukrainian resistance against Russian aggression. Zelensky also emphasized that any pause in fighting benefits Russia’s military capabilities. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz disagreed with the Pope’s stance, asserting Ukraine’s defense against aggression.
Ukraine completed all four recommendations from the European Commission for EU accession negotiations, stated Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna. The Ukrainian Parliament’s approval of a lobbying bill aligns with EU standards, establishing rules and a transparency register. Previous reforms include staff increases at anti-corruption agencies, asset registry reopening, and changes to minority laws. Ukraine anticipates the European Commission’s decision on March 12-14 to approve the report on fulfilling criteria and provide a negotiation framework. Executive Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis confirmed the Commission’s draft framework readiness upon Ukraine meeting all requirements.
Ukrainian consul Serhii Tsaruk visited the Dorohusk-Yahodyn border crossing and found no blocked buses amid reports of Polish protesters obstructing traffic. The protesters, mainly farmers, oppose the influx of Ukrainian agricultural products, citing quality concerns and opposition to EU Green Deal policies. While passenger buses and aid should not be blocked, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov reported delays earlier. Tsaruk met with local police and protesters to ensure bus movement, and the consulate requested police support for unhindered transit. The police cited technical reasons for delays and denied deliberate bus blocking. The dispute strained Kyiv-Warsaw relations, with incidents like spilled Ukrainian grain further escalating tensions.
Ukraine has initiated talks with American and European safety regulators to resume air travel, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov confirmed in an interview with RBC-Ukraine. The country’s airspace has been closed since the start of the war in 2022 due to Russian attacks. Kubrakov stated that three Ukrainian airlines are interested in resuming flights, with Ryanair planning to return once airspace reopens. Discussions are ongoing regarding operational strategies under martial law, with Israel’s aviation model cited as a reference. Lviv and Uzhhorod are potential candidates for the first airports to resume operations.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested a woman in Vinnytsia Oblast for allegedly sharing sensitive information with Russia. The woman, wife of a former local council head, is accused of disclosing Ukrainian military positions, aircraft, air defense systems, and medical facilities treating soldiers. The SBU claims her actions aimed to aid Russia’s missile and drone strikes. A potential Russian strike was reportedly prevented due to her arrest. The investigation also accuses her of spreading pro-Russian propaganda online. Following a search of her home, electronic devices were seized. She faces five charges under Ukraine’s Criminal Code, with a possibility of life imprisonment if convicted.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine’s European allies are aiding its defense industry by establishing production facilities in Ukraine. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that three French companies will set up factories for drone and vehicle parts production. Czechoslovak Group is also negotiating to transfer manufacturing to Ukraine by 2027.
Ukraine’s Allies
France is considering forming a coalition of countries willing to send Western military personnel to Ukraine for non-combat roles like demining. French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné stated that foreign troops in Ukraine wouldn’t necessarily engage in fighting. The move aims to send a strong message to Russia, with Poland also suggesting the presence of NATO forces in Ukraine is possible. France seeks to assert a balanced approach in dealing with Russia.
Ukraine’s allies are stepping up support efforts. The UK plans to allocate $160 million for 10,000 drones. Luxembourg, Latvia, Lithuania, Germany, and France will join the Czech initiative to provide artillery ammunition to Ukraine, with Norway contributing $150 million. France is negotiating to retrieve weapons from Saudi Arabia and Qatar to redirect supplies to Ukraine, with Germany and Italy also involved in negotiations for weapon returns.
Ukraine is expected to receive six F-16 fighter jets by summer 2024, with 12 Ukrainian pilots prepared for combat flying by then, according to The New York Times.
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock expressed openness to a proposed “ring exchange” deal with the UK, where London supplies Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles, and Germany replenishes British long-range missile stocks. Baerbock noted that such exchanges have occurred before to avoid direct arms transfers to Ukraine. The proposal arises amid discussions over providing Ukraine with Taurus missiles, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz cautious due to concerns about escalation. Ukraine has received other long-range missiles from the UK and France, while Germany’s parliament supported delivering unspecified long-range weapons to Ukraine in February.
EU High Commissioner Borrell suggested using profits from frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine or support its defense industry. This follows a previous EU decision allowing these profits to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction.
US funding delays are holding up the delivery of promised missile systems to Ukraine. Canadian Defense Minister Blair cited the lack of US funding as the reason for the delay in finalizing contracts for the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS).
ICC Judge Tomoko Akane, previously on a Russian wanted list for issuing an arrest warrant for Putin, was elected ICC president. The court also elected Judge Rosario Salvatore Aitala as first vice president. Akane aims to prioritize the security of court personnel and reinforce dialogue with member states. Russia withdrew from the ICC in 2016, and Armenia, the newest member, joined in February 2024.
Pope Francis’ call for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia drew criticism from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and NATO General Jens Stoltenberg. Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s defense efforts. German Defense Minister Annalena Baerbock and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis also expressed disagreement. Ukrainian Ambassador to the Vatican Andrii Yurash clarified that the Pope’s views were personal. The Vatican stated that the Pope sought a ceasefire and diplomatic solution.
Life In Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The NGO Save Ukraine brought back five children and an 18-year-old orphan from Russian-occupied areas. These individuals were rescued from territories separated by the Dnipro River, where families have been split due to the conflict. Since the invasion began, over 19,500 children have been taken by Russia, with fewer than 400 returned. The rescued individuals are now receiving psychological and medical support.
Russia News
The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian Ambassador in response to claims that Russia will operate multiple polling stations in Transnistria during the Russian presidential election, contrary to previous agreements. Reports suggest Russia plans to open six polling stations in Transnistria, despite Moldova’s ruling allowing only one station in Chisinau. The situation reflects broader efforts by Russia to influence Moldova and maintain its sphere of influence.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the West of using Armenia against Russia, amid tensions over Armenia’s decision to freeze its participation in the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. UK Minister of State for the Armed Forces acknowledged Armenia’s move, prompting Russia to criticize Western efforts to influence Armenia against Moscow. The Kremlin may escalate its response as Armenia seeks closer ties with the West.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill to tighten control over the Russian information space by further restricting actors labeled as “foreign agents” ahead of the presidential election. The law bans Russians from advertising the content of designated “foreign agents” and their own content on platforms owned by them. This move is expected to affect opposition media’s operations in Russia, with reports of some journalists suspending their work. Additionally, the Russian government supports a draft bill to designate foreign organizations with alleged ties to foreign governments as “undesirable.”
Lawmakers from Russia’s ruling United Russia party introduced a draft law in the State Duma, declaring Russia’s 1954 return of Crimea to Ukraine as “illegal.” The bill alleges that the transfer violated international law and contradicted principles of legality. Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously used similar claims to justify Crimea’s annexation in 2014. The draft law’s authors argue that passing it would make it harder for Western allies to support Ukraine’s efforts to reclaim Crimea. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains that Ukraine’s aim is to regain all occupied territories, including Crimea. Crimea was formally transferred to Ukraine in 1954 by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev to mark the 300th anniversary of a treaty between Ukrainian Cossacks and Russia.
Leading international electronics companies like Samsung and Xiaomi have restarted advertising in Russia after initially halting promotions due to the invasion, as per TelecomDaily data cited by Russian state media Kommersant. While some companies downsized operations, others continued through third-party advertisers. Samsung suspended product shipments to Russia in March 2022, but Xiaomi maintained or increased advertising in 2023 compared to 2021 levels. Western manufacturers reducing presence in Russia have opened space for Chinese companies like Xiaomi, with Chinese-made smartphones now constituting 70% of the Russian market, up 20% from the previous year according to Reuters.
A South Korean citizen, Paek Won-soon, was arrested in Russia on espionage charges, as reported by TASS. He was detained in Vladivostok in January and moved to Moscow in February for further investigation. The individual is suspected of sharing state secrets with foreign intelligence services. Paek Won-soon is currently held in Moscow’s Lefortovo pre-trial detention center, with his arrest extended until June 15.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Putin directed the Russian Cabinet to create a section on the public services portal for military personnel in Ukraine and their families. They’ll get info on social benefits. There’s a proposal to exempt deceased soldiers’ children from paying utilities and give a one-time payment of 20,000 rubles to dependents. A decree extends a 5-million-ruble payment to families of civilian MoD personnel and law enforcement employees who die in combat in Ukraine. This strategy aims to support military involvement and ease domestic tensions.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets highlighted Russian plans to create a strategic reserve for offensive operations in spring–summer 2024 but noted constraints in equipping these units due to production limitations. Mashovets mentioned that Russia aims to equip only up to 87% of the required weapons and equipment for the 27th Motorized Rifle Division, indicating similar goals for other units. However, Western and Ukrainian officials suggested that Russia’s reported tank production largely involves restored and modernized tanks from storage rather than new ones. The assessment suggests that while Russia’s defense industrial base can sustain current operations, fully supporting a potential offensive might pose challenges.
The Wall Street Journal and NATO officials suggest Russia’s increased defense production might falter due to labor shortages, depleted stockpiles, and difficulty sourcing crucial items amidst sanctions. Observers note Russia’s reliance on foreign suppliers for high-tech items like semiconductors and struggles to source specialized components like tank optics. Additionally, Russia’s domestic ammunition production may not meet demands, requiring reliance on partners. The US aims to boost artillery shell production, but NATO estimates show it falls short of Russia’s output.
CNN reported that Russia’s monthly artillery munition production is nearly three times that of the U.S. and Europe combined, totaling around 250,000 shells per month or 3 million annually. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Europe can only produce about 1.2 million shells per year for Ukraine. With $61 billion in U.S. funding for Kyiv stuck in Congress, European nations have joined a Czech-led initiative to supply 800,000 shells. Despite the U.S. military aiming to reach 100,000 shells per month production by 2025, current funding issues hinder progress. Russian troops are firing 10,000 shells daily, while Ukraine fires 2,000. Russia’s wartime production has surged, employing 3.5 million people compared to pre-war figures. Despite this, Western officials doubt Russia’s capacity to make significant gains in Ukraine soon. Estonia’s intelligence noted that Russia refurbishes Soviet-era ammunition, potentially producing up to 4 million shells in 2023. The EU admitted delays in delivering promised shells and urged member states to source ammunition for Ukraine externally.
Russia’s Allies
Russia, China, and Iran are conducting a joint naval exercise called Maritime Security Belt – 2024 in the Gulf of Oman from March 11 to 15. The exercise aims to practice safe joint naval maneuvers to ensure maritime economic activity. Russian, Chinese, and Iranian naval detachments, along with observers from several other countries, are participating in the exercise.
Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea have resumed after a pause since mid-February 2024. Satellite imagery shows a ship like the Russian Lady R at North Korea’s Rajin Port, likely loading containers for arms delivery back to Russia. The Lady R previously delivered cargo from North Korea to Russia in October 2023 and February 2024.
Belarus’s First Deputy Defense Minister stated that the country is conducting combat readiness exercises partly in response to NATO’s Steadfast Defender 2024 drills. There are concerns that false information about a Russian offensive operation toward Kyiv could be spread alongside these exercises, but experts suggest Russia lacks the resources for such an invasion from Belarus.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
The Russian SVR stated that the US intends to launch cyberattacks on Russia’s electronic voting system and manipulate voter turnout through NGOs. This claim suggests Russia may use it to justify any low voter turnout or escalate tensions with the US.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com