Summary of the day: In the ongoing conflict, Russian forces have recently achieved confirmed advances near Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, despite Ukraine’s robust defense bolstered by Western security assistance. These developments come as Russia continues its efforts to destabilize Ukrainian defenses in anticipation of a new offensive in Summer 2024, while Ukraine faces pressing shortages in air defense systems and missiles, potentially reducing its ability to counter Russian strikes. Amid these military actions, both sides are preparing for a long-term confrontation, with NATO security underlined as a concern should Russia secure a victory in Ukraine.
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Situation On The Ground And Air
Russian forces are intensifying their offensive efforts in Ukraine, focusing on destabilizing defenses and preparing for a summer offensive in 2024. Western security assistance is crucial for Ukraine to hold its ground and counter these offensives. Despite recent Russian advances, particularly around Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces have managed to slow their progress. However, delays in Western aid and material shortages pose risks to Ukraine’s defense, potentially allowing Russian breakthroughs. The challenging spring weather may further limit both sides’ maneuverability, but Russia aims to exploit Ukrainian vulnerabilities before more Western support arrives.
Officials are warning of Ukrainian equipment shortages and a potential large-scale Russian offensive in Summer 2024. The exact plans of the Russian offensive remain unclear, but it aims to exploit any current gains and anticipated Ukrainian weaknesses. Well-equipped Ukrainian forces have previously halted Russian advances, suggesting that with sufficient supplies, they could counter the upcoming offensive. Concerns are growing over delays in Western aid, deemed crucial for Ukraine’s defense against this expected Russian push. EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell emphasized the need for increased and faster support from the West, noting the decisive nature of the coming months. The US’s role is highlighted as essential, with warnings that without its aid, Ukraine faces a grim future, including potential significant territorial losses to Russia in Summer 2024.
Despite the risk of Russian gains in the coming months, well-equipped Ukrainian forces could potentially halt significant Russian advances both in Spring and Summer 2024. Successes by Russia this spring, even minor, could pave the way for more substantial operations in the summer. However, if Western security assistance is timely and sufficient to address Ukrainian material shortages, Ukraine could strengthen its defenses and prevent a Russian breakthrough in the near future.
Ukraine faces critical shortages in air defense systems and missiles, threatening its ability to counter Russian strikes. Without rapid replenishment, Ukraine’s air defense could be significantly weakened, potentially only targeting one out of every five Russian missiles by the end of March. This shortage forces tough choices on where to deploy limited defenses, impacting both civilian and frontline areas. Russian forces are exploiting these vulnerabilities with varied strike tactics and have intensified the use of glide bombs. The U.S. is seen as a key source for urgently needed air defense systems to prevent further deterioration of Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine announced that the country has identified Russia’s vulnerabilities for targeted drone strikes. This statement came after discussions with Ukraine’s top military and security leaders, focusing on strategies against Russia and the production of advanced drones for combat. Zelensky emphasized the need for drones with longer range, greater mass, and increased power to respond effectively to Russian aggression.
The Russian military is adapting its strategies and tactics based on experiences in Ukraine, aiming for readiness against potential long-term confrontations with NATO. According to Estonian intelligence, Russia is evolving into a “learning organization,” addressing battlefield challenges with significant manpower and materiel, reminiscent of Soviet-style military strategies focused on firepower and artillery. Despite tactical and operational adjustments, including successful defensive strategies and technological innovations like electronic warfare and drones, the Russian military’s ability to disseminate these learnings across all units varies. Russia is also restructuring and expanding its military in anticipation of a potential war with NATO within the next decade, indicating strategic preparations for large-scale conventional warfare.
European officials warn that a Russian victory in Ukraine could significantly threaten NATO security. EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell highlighted the dire consequences of Russian forces reaching the borders of Poland, Moldova, and the Baltic states, marking it as a “strategic wake-up call” for Europe to bolster its defense capabilities. French President Emmanuel Macron echoed this sentiment, stressing the existential threat to Europe and the importance of ensuring Russia does not win the war in Ukraine. Estonian intelligence suggests that while a Russia-NATO war isn’t inevitable, Europe’s future is closely tied to the outcome in Ukraine.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made slight advances northeast of Kupyansk, engaging in ongoing battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. These marginal gains were noted east of Synkivka, with Russian milbloggers reporting a 300-meter advancement west of Kreminna and near Bilohorivka, though unconfirmed near Bilohorivka. Positional fighting occurred in several areas around Kupyansk and Kreminna.
Near Bakhmut, while positional battles persisted, there were no significant changes to the front lines. A Ukrainian battalion commander reported pushing back Russian forces in the Bakhmut area, with no Russian advances reported west of Bakhmut near Ivanivske for over a week. Fighting occurred in several directions around Bakhmut, involving Russian airborne and artillery units north of Soledar and near Horlivka, respectively.
Russian forces made limited advances northwest of Avdiivka, with ongoing positional clashes reported. Footage suggests a westward push within Berdychi, and claims of further advances near Orlivka, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske, though unverified. Ukrainian control of strategic heights and mechanized operations near Berdychi challenge Russian movements. Fighting continues around Avdiivka, with Russian assaults reportedly involving small infantry groups.
Ongoing positional battles were reported west and southwest of Donetsk City without any confirmed frontline shifts. Claims of Russian advances north of Novomykhailivka remain unverified. Clashes continued in areas west and southwest of the city, including Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, and Vodyane.
Fighting persisted in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border region, particularly southeast and south of Velyka Novosilka, in areas including Novodonetske, Shevchenko, Volodymyrivka, Staromayorske, and Urozhaine. Russian units were active near Staromayorske and Volodymyrivka. Russian aviation also conducted glide bomb strikes near Vuhledar.
Russian troops have advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with footage showing movements north and northwest of Verbove, near Robotyne. Ongoing battles are reported in these areas.
Ukrainian forces are holding positions on the east bank of Kherson Oblast near Krynky, with ongoing battles in the region.
The Kakhovka Reservoir is refilling with water, as reported by Defense News on March 14, hindering the movement of military equipment across the area. Satellite imagery from October 2023 to March 2024 shows increased water levels due to melted snow, especially east of Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast. This refill follows the significant drying of the reservoir after the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam by Russian forces in June 2023.
Human Cost Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 21 people and injuries to at least 73 others:
- A Russian missile strike in Odesa resulted in 20 fatalities, including a paramedic, a first responder, and notable local figures such as the former deputy mayor and a police special forces commander. The attack, which occurred after an air raid alert, also injured at least 73 people, among them first responders and police officers. Launched from occupied Crimea, the missiles struck a recreational building and caused damage to houses and utility networks, cutting off electricity and gas to hundreds of homes. Emergency services are responding to the aftermath, with a day of mourning declared in Odesa Oblast for March 16.
- Russia attacked Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast with missiles, igniting a fire at a medical aid station and an incomplete dormitory. The blaze, covering 200 square meters, also damaged 16 homes and four vehicles, including two ambulances. Fortunately, there were no casualties, and firefighters successfully put out the fire.
- A 76-year-old woman was killed in her yard by shrapnel from a Russian shell in the village of Dolynka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Aftermath of attack on Odesa
A building on fire in Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast, following a Russian missile attack
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone attacks on Ukraine on the night of March 14-15 and during the day on March 15, with the Ukrainian Air Force reporting the launch of 27 Shahed drones from Crimea and Kursk Oblast, all shot down over various regions. Attacks included missile strikes on Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts, a missile on Poltava Oblast, drone strikes on Vinnytsia Oblast, and ballistic missile hits in Odesa City, resulting in at least 19 civilian deaths and over 70 injuries. Additionally, since December 2023, Russia has used 50 North Korean missiles against Ukraine, characterized by low quality and a high failure rate, often exploding mid-air before reaching targets.
Since the start of the full-scale war in 2022, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has countered nearly 10,000 cyberattacks, with daily occurrences increasing, according to SBU’s cyber chief Illia Vitiuk. The frequency of cyberattacks has risen sharply, with around 4,500 incidents in 2023 alone, marking an average of 10-15 attacks daily, a significant increase from 1,400 in 2021. Most of these cyber efforts were thwarted early on. Highlighting the tangible impacts of these cyber battles, Vitiuk referenced a major attack on Kyivstar in December 2023, causing nationwide disruptions and substantial financial losses. Beyond defense, the SBU’s cyber activities disrupt Russian military supplies, including blocking essential components for drones and missiles, and involve frontline operations to compromise Russian electronic systems and drones.
In response to escalating Russian attacks in Sumy Oblast near the Ukraine-Russia border, Ukrainian officials have evacuated over 180 residents from the Velyka Pysarivka area, which witnessed 208 explosions today. Shelling has intensified recently, resulting in three deaths and 13 injuries, including five children, in the past five days. Drone strikes and other assaults have also caused casualties and damaged civilian infrastructure. In total, over 4,500 residents have been evacuated from 22 villages in the region.
Ukraine has brought back the remains of 100 soldiers killed in the conflict with Russia for identification and burial, as confirmed by the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of the Prisoners of War. This operation involved multiple Ukrainian agencies and received support from the International Committee of the Red Cross, adhering to the Geneva Conventions for war casualties. Over the past two years, around 2,100 soldiers’ bodies have been repatriated. This follows an earlier repatriation in February when 58 soldiers were returned. Ukraine has recently disclosed a death toll of approximately 31,000 soldiers since the invasion began, a figure shared by President Zelensky, underscoring the heavy loss for the nation.
The Ukrainian government has greenlit the establishment of a national military memorial cemetery in the Hatne community near Kyiv, as announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Initially debated since 2022, the cemetery will honor those who died for Ukraine’s freedom during the Russian invasion. Two land plots in Hatne have been designated for this purpose, marking the project’s significance for national remembrance. Previous considerations for locations within Kyiv faced opposition, and plans for Bykivnia forest were halted due to the need for archaeological assessments. The project in Hatne commenced as an experimental venture in August 2023. This development comes as Ukraine disclosed an estimated 31,000 military fatalities since the war began.
Ukraine’s Allies
French President Emmanuel Macron has indicated that while sending Western troops to Ukraine is not currently necessary, he remains open to the possibility if the situation worsens. He emphasized that limiting aid to Ukraine would equate to accepting defeat and stressed the importance of strength for peace in Ukraine. Macron highlighted that any decision to deploy French troops would be in response to Russian actions, underscoring the commitment to supporting Ukraine and the necessity of recognizing its sovereignty and territorial integrity, including Crimea. Reports suggest France is working to form an alliance of countries willing to consider deploying troops to Ukraine.
International condemnation followed Russia’s missile attack on Odesa. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu emphasized the need for urgent support for Ukraine, highlighting the broader threat to European peace. Various global leaders and organizations, including the Council of Europe, the European Commission, the United Nations, and the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, denounced the attack, stressing the violation of international humanitarian law and the urgent need for support to Ukraine amidst stalled U.S. aid.
The European Union will disburse the first installment of 4.5 billion euros to Ukraine as part of the Ukraine Facility program next week, with an additional 1.5 billion euros expected in the coming months. This funding is part of a larger 50-billion-euro aid package, consisting of loans and grants, approved for Ukraine from 2024 to 2027 after overcoming Hungary’s opposition. The EU’s financial support is aimed at assisting Ukraine’s recovery amidst the economic strain from the ongoing Russian invasion.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson anticipates the passage of a future Ukraine aid bill primarily with Democratic support and is considering separating aid for Ukraine and Israel into two bills. With $60 billion for Ukraine stalled since autumn 2023, some Republicans propose treating the nonmilitary aid as a loan to garner more support. Johnson plans to use the suspension calendar requiring a two-thirds majority, thus needing significant Democratic backing. Foreign aid discussions are set to follow a government funding plan submission to avoid a partial shutdown. The idea of loans for Ukraine has been criticized for potentially indebting Ukraine during war, but Ukraine’s Justice Minister expressed openness to loans if it expedites aid.
Germany, France, and Poland, following a Weimar Triangle meeting in Berlin, have committed to new support measures for Ukraine, including more weapons purchases and forming a coalition on long-range rocket artillery. Chancellor Scholz hosted President Macron and Prime Minister Tusk to align their Ukraine aid strategies and overcome strategic differences. The group plans to increase arms procurement, boost military production in partnership with Ukraine, support the EU defense fund for Ukraine, and utilize frozen Russian assets for these efforts. Macron emphasized support for Ukraine without escalating the conflict, while Tusk called for rapid and extensive aid. Amidst slow EU ammunition deliveries and stalled U.S. aid, Czechia has located 800,000 artillery shells for Ukraine, with financial support from allies, including a confirmed purchase by Germany and France.
Greece is in talks to buy and send Czech ammunition to Ukraine, including 90,000 projectiles, 180 anti-tank projectiles, 2,000 rockets, and 4 million bullets, to help with Ukraine’s serious ammo shortages. This effort comes as U.S. support is delayed by political issues. Greece also plans to sell 70 M114A1 howitzers to Czechia for Ukraine’s use. The deal is under negotiation, aiming to bolster Ukraine’s defenses amidst ongoing conflicts, despite Greece’s cautious stance on supplying more advanced weaponry due to its own security needs against Turkey. Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis recently met with Ukraine’s President Zelensky in Odesa, underlining Greece’s support amid Russian aggression.
Greece has joined a Lithuania-led coalition to help Ukraine with demining, aiming to clear mines from a third of Ukraine’s territory affected by the conflict with Russia. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias announced this after meeting his Lithuanian counterpart in Vilnius, emphasizing Greece’s condemnation of Russia’s invasion as a breach of sovereignty and international law. The coalition, comprising around 20 countries, focuses on humanitarian and frontline demining to support Ukraine’s efforts to reclaim occupied areas and ensure civilian safety.
Ukraine, alongside 56 countries and the European Union, strongly condemned Russia’s illegal voting in occupied Ukrainian territories during its presidential election. The joint statement, led by Ukraine’s UN Representative Sergiy Kyslytsya, criticized the votes in Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts as violating sovereignty and lacking legitimacy under international law. This stance is supported globally, including by the U.S., Japan, Canada, and several others, reinforcing the call for Russia to cease its aggression and withdraw from Ukrainian territories. The UN General Assembly’s resolutions affirm the invalidity of such elections and Russia’s annexations, emphasizing support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is lobbying Chancellor Olaf Scholz to approve sending Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, amidst concerns of escalating Germany’s involvement in the conflict. A potential “circular swap” with the U.K. is discussed, where Germany would replenish British missile stocks in exchange for the U.K. supplying Ukraine with missiles, possibly maintaining control over their use. Despite Baerbock’s efforts, the German Bundestag recently rejected the proposal to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine, marking the third such refusal. The proposal’s defeat reflects Scholz’s cautious stance and the division within German political circles on military support for Ukraine.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation officials are reportedly manipulating election outcomes in occupied Ukraine to show inflated voter turnout and support for President Putin. Major General Vadym Skibitskyi of Ukraine’s Intelligence indicated that Putin ordered a falsification aiming for 75% turnout and support, but officials plan to claim an 85% rate to exceed expectations. The Kremlin intends to use these exaggerated figures to claim widespread support in occupied regions. Despite an estimated 2.5 million adult residents, 4.5 million voters have been registered across Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. Efforts to boost turnout include forcing Russian workers and Central Asian migrants to vote, marking non-voters as “disloyal,” and offering financial incentives to voters. There are also reports of forced transportation to polling stations, particularly in Henichesk, Kherson Oblast.
During the Russian presidential election voting, Ukrainian partisans reportedly detonated an IED in Skadovsk, occupied Kherson Oblast, according to local occupation officials. Despite the explosion near a polling station, there were no reported casualties. The incident was also confirmed by a Ukrainian official noting explosions in Skadovsk that day.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces launched a drone strike on the Perviy Zavod oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast, Russia, reportedly used for military purposes, causing significant damage. This attack, among others on Russian oil facilities, has led to a sharp increase in domestic oil prices in Russia, with AI-95 grade oil reaching record prices since September 2023. The strikes have also resulted in the shutdown of major oil processing units in Ryazan and Nizhny Novgorod refineries, potentially reducing Russia’s gas production by up to 9% and heavily impacting the Russian oil market.
On the first day of the Russian presidential election, there were minor disruptions across Russia and occupied Ukraine, including arson and damage to ballot boxes, leading to eight criminal cases. Incidents involved individuals tampering with ballot boxes using dye, ink, or paint, damaging ballot counting devices, and setting polling stations on fire. The Moscow Prosecutor’s Office issued warnings against planned protests. Despite these acts, widespread public participation in protests against the election and President Putin is considered unlikely to significantly affect the election’s outcome.
Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed recent cross-border raids into Russia’s Belgorod and Kursk regions from Ukraine, suggesting they aimed to disrupt Russia’s presidential election and draw international attention to Ukraine. These raids, occurring between March 12 and 15, were attributed to pro-Ukrainian groups such as the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion. Putin asserted that these actions would only unify Russians further, dismissing any intimidation attempts by pro-Ukrainian forces. Russian defense sources reported repelling these assaults, with involvement from Russia’s elite units in defending the border areas.
Two Rosneft oil refineries in Russia’s Samara Oblast were targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks, causing a fire at the Syzran refinery but no casualties. The attacks are part of Ukraine’s strategy to disrupt Russia’s oil production, with similar strikes reported earlier in Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Leningrad oblasts. These refineries represent about 12% of Russia’s total oil-processing capacity. Local governor Dmitry Azarov confirmed the incidents, with social media showing images of the fire. The attack coincides with the first day of Russia’s presidential elections, where Vladimir Putin seeks another term.
Ukraine’s military intelligence is actively hacking Russia’s online voting systems during the presidential election that has begun, aiming to disrupt the process. The election, extending over three days, is seen as a formality to extend Vladimir Putin’s rule, with no genuine opposition candidates allowed to challenge him. Notable potential rivals have been disqualified or imprisoned, such as Alexei Navalny, who died in detention. European Council President Charles Michel sarcastically “congratulated” Putin on his expected victory, highlighting the absence of opposition, freedom, and choice. A 2020 vote in Russia amended the constitution, enabling Putin to potentially remain in power for another 12 years, further entrenching his authoritarian rule. Russia’s political freedoms score from Freedom House stands at 0 out of 4, underscoring the lack of democratic processes.
A UN report described Russian torture of Ukrainian POWs as “widespread and systematic,” highlighting severe abuses and a complete disregard for human dignity. Victims shared harrowing details of brutal treatment, including beatings, broken bones, and severe injuries, with one recounting attempts at self-harm due to despair. The report also noted sexual violence against women and men as forms of torture. These findings align with earlier documentation of torture and poor detention conditions for Ukrainian POWs in Russian captivity, including a report from the UN Human Rights Office and an investigation into the dire situation at Olenivka prison in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is intensifying its recruitment of foreign fighters, particularly from economically challenged countries, to bolster its forces in Ukraine. The recruitment drive, which has included coercive practices within Russia, is reaching beyond to countries like Cuba, India, Nepal, and others, with a noted increase in Cuban participation. These individuals often face the front lines with little preparation, serving as expendable units in the conflict. Ukraine, adhering to the Geneva Conventions, provides captured foreign fighters with basic rights and humane treatment despite their status as mercenaries, which under international law is not formally recognized in warfare.
Russia is advancing its drone operation capabilities, introducing a new military specialty for FPV (first-person view) drone operators to enhance drone technology use. The Russian State Commission on Radio Frequencies is proposing changes to allow drone operators dedicated radio frequencies, addressing current issues with standard, overloaded channels. This adjustment is expected to boost both civilian drone transportation and military drone operations, facilitating more effective communication and operation of drones within Russian forces.
Russia’s Allies
G7 leaders urged third parties, specifically naming Iran, to halt material support to Russia, spotlighting Iran’s role as a major drone supplier since the onset of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022. Reports have surfaced, including a February Reuters article, about Iran sending 400 ballistic missiles to Russia, though Ukrainian authorities have yet to confirm this. The G7 expressed serious concerns over Iran’s potential escalation of support through the transfer of ballistic missiles and technology to Russia, emphasizing the threat of further destabilization in the region. They warned of swift, significant measures, including sanctions against Iran, should it continue to aid Russia’s military efforts. The U.S. has already indicated readiness to impose further sanctions. Additionally, the use of North Korean missiles by Russian forces in Ukraine has been documented, with attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, and Kharkiv Oblast reported.
Hungary has formally criticized Ukraine’s treatment of its Hungarian minority, claiming discrimination due to language laws and education policies. Budapest’s 11-point request includes restoring minority rights lost since 2015, ensuring education in Hungarian, and allowing Hungarian use in public life. Hungary seeks political representation for its minority in Ukraine and has taken issue with changes to population ratio requirements for linguistic rights. Kyiv has not yet responded. The complaints come amidst broader tensions between Hungary and Ukraine, with Hungary often opposing Ukraine’s EU integration efforts and adopting a softer stance towards Russia.
In Belarus, Ukrainian Nataliia Zakharenko was sentenced to nine years in prison on espionage charges after a closed-door trial. Zakharenko, who facilitated the return of Ukrainians from Belarus to Ukraine amid the war, disappeared last July. The trial’s specifics remain undisclosed under Belarus’ authoritarian regime. Additionally, Zakharenko’s minibus was confiscated, and a friend was fined for not reporting the supposed crimes. This case adds to several convictions in Belarus related to alleged cooperation with Ukrainian intelligence.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, made provocative statements challenging the sovereignty of Latvia, a NATO member, and issued a threat against Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs. Following his call for the elimination of Ukraine and its integration into Russia, Medvedev escalated his rhetoric by threatening Rinkēvičs and labeling the Ukrainian government as “Nazi”. He also dismissed Latvia’s legitimacy as a country. These comments reflect the Kremlin’s broader ideological stance that frames the conflict in Ukraine as part of a wider confrontation with the West and NATO, challenging international norms and the sovereignty of states.
On the first day of the Russian presidential election, authorities reported a high voter turnout, with the Central Election Commission stating nearly 29% of eligible voters had voted by the evening. Notably, Belgorod Oblast reported over 50% turnout, despite recent cross-border incidents, with discrepancies in reporting raising questions. The election commission also claimed extensive international observation and reported cyberattacks on the voting system. However, reports indicate a lack of independent observers, suggesting many are linked to the Kremlin.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com