Summary of the day: Following his electoral victory, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the pivotal role of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) in safeguarding national security, indicating a continued reliance on security services in his fifth term. Russia is actively enhancing ties with Iran, North Korea, and China to form a strategic bloc against Western influence. In a move to avoid U.S. sanctions, Armenia plans to prohibit the use of Russia’s “Mir” payment system, while pro-Russian elements in Moldova persist in their attempts to undermine the country’s stability. Concurrently, Ukraine receives ongoing military support from European allies, as Russia confirms leadership changes in its Navy and maintains its conscription numbers, amidst ongoing advances in Ukraine and the controversial relocation of Ukrainian children by Russian officials.
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Situation On The Ground And Air
Ukrainian military is reinforcing defenses in Sumy Oblast, which faces frequent Russian shelling and air strikes, to counter increased hostilities and prevent cross-border incursions. Recent Russian attacks have escalated in destructiveness, with casualties reported in Seredyna-Buda and other areas. Ukrainian forces recently thwarted attempts by Russian saboteurs to penetrate the region. Despite the heightened tension and the ongoing civilian evacuations from high-risk zones, Ukrainian authorities currently do not anticipate a large-scale invasion but remain vigilant and prepared for various scenarios.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian attacks near Kupyansk and Kreminna were repelled by Ukrainian forces, with no changes to the frontline reported. Ukrainian defense held strong in areas around Kupyansk and Kreminna, including Synkivka, Terny, and Bilohorivka.
In the Kupyansk-Lyman area, the Russian military has deployed up to 80,000 troops, according to Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets. These forces include units from the Russian Western Military District, with specific brigades and divisions positioned along key defensive lines near Kupyansk and advancing towards Terny and Torske. Russia has additional regiments and battalion-sized units in reserve for this sector.
There were no significant changes at the Bakhmut frontline, with ongoing positional battles reported near and southwest of the city. Ukrainian and Russian forces are engaged in heavy fighting in areas including Ivanivske and Andriivka. Russian airborne and special forces units are active around Bakhmut.
Russian claims suggest they captured Orlivka near Avdiivka, although independent verification is pending. Challenges in consolidating control due to Ukrainian counterattacks were reported. Russian forces are also increasing their assaults on nearby Berdychi and Tonenke, using glide bomb strikes. Additionally, Russian advancements were noted near the Pervomaiske Dam, with ongoing combat reported in the surrounding areas.
No significant changes to the frontline were reported near Donetsk City, with ongoing positional battles west and southwest of the city, especially around Krasnohorivka and Novomykhailivka. Despite heavy fighting and multiple assault attempts, Russian forces have not made substantial progress in these areas. Russian military units are active near Krasnohorivka.
In the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border region, ongoing battles have not altered the frontline, particularly near Staromayorske and Pryyutne. Russian military units, including those from the Baltic Fleet and Aerospace Forces, are active around Vuhledar and south of Velyka Novosilka, indicating continued military engagement in the area.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, the frontline remained unchanged despite ongoing clashes, particularly around Robotyne and Verbove. Russian sources claimed advances near Verbove, but these have not been independently verified.
In east bank Kherson Oblast, fighting persisted, especially near Krynky. Reports suggest a small Ukrainian presence in Krynky, with the bulk of their forces positioned in nearby coastal and forested areas. Ukrainian operations were also noted near the Antonivsky bridge north of Oleshky.
Human Cost Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 3 people and injuries to 12 others:
- Russian forces launched 30 attacks across Sumy Oblast, resulting in 90 incidents and the death of one individual in Velyka Pysarivka due to air strikes. Six additional communities, including Khotin, Krasnopillia, Seredyna-Buda, Svesa, and Znob-Novhorodske, were targeted with a variety of attack methods, such as mortar, artillery, and drones, which also dropped mines. Bilopillia faced the most intense bombardment, with 53 explosions documented.
- A Russian attack targeting Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast injured a policeman and damaged residential buildings. The assault, which involved Uragan rocket launchers, occurred as Russia stepped up its military actions in the region, a key logistical hub. Additionally, the village of Mokra Rokytna in the same district was attacked, resulting in damage to an agricultural enterprise, including solar panels.
- Russian troops carried out an attack using a drone in Kherson Oblast, injuring a 57-year-old woman and a 58-year-old man near the village of Osokorivka. The victims sustained contusions and received medical assistance.
- A farmer died in Kherson Oblast while handling a mine left by Russian troops near the village of Molodetske. In Kharkiv Oblast, another farmer was injured by a mine explosion.
- Russian forces attacked the road between Antonivka and Sadove in Kherson district, injuring three civilians aged 21, 27, and 44. They received medical treatment for minor injuries.
- Attacks on the village of Ocheretyne in Donetsk Oblast resulted in one fatality and one injury.
- Overnight, Russian troops fired S-300 missiles at the town of Selydove, injuring four people and damaging over 20 houses.
A house destroyed by a Russian attack on Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine News
Since March’s start, Russian forces have fired 130 missiles, 320 Shahed drones, and 900 glide bombs, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
France has joined Poland in advocating for limits on Ukrainian agricultural imports, a move that might cost Ukraine approximately €1.2 billion in trade revenue. This stance poses a risk to extending Ukraine’s free-trade access with the EU, contrasting with previous expressions of support for Ukraine by French and Polish leaders. The issue will be a key topic at an upcoming EU summit. The EU’s liberalized trade regime with Ukraine was intended to support its economy amidst the war and a maritime blockade but has led to complaints from some EU countries about domestic market impacts and farmer protests. Ukraine is open to discussing trade restrictions to ease tensions, also suggesting a bloc-wide ban on Russian grain.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal visited Luxembourg, meeting with Prime Minister Luc Frieden to discuss Luxembourg’s substantial commitment of 130 million euros ($142 million) in aid to Ukraine, predominantly focused on military support. During the meeting, they explored Luxembourg’s ongoing assistance to Ukraine and the potential future confiscation of Russian assets.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba plans to visit India, the first such visit since the conflict with Russia escalated, aiming to discuss diplomatic and economic issues. This follows a dialogue between Ukraine’s Presidential Office and India’s National Security Advisor about a Global Peace Summit. Despite India’s neutral stance in the war and its economic reliance on Russian oil, concerns have arisen over India’s potential involvement in recruiting citizens to fight for Russia. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently congratulated Putin on his controversial re-election, while Ukraine seeks to engage India in dialogue and diplomacy.
The Ukrainian Embassy in Australia criticized the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) for airing “The Other Side,” a documentary depicting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the perspective of Russian soldiers. The embassy condemned the film as pro-Putin propaganda, stating it minimizes the suffering caused by the invasion. The documentary, previously broadcast in the UK, follows British journalist Sean Langan’s interactions with Russian soldiers in occupied Donbas. Ukrainian officials have requested a meeting with ABC’s managing director to discuss the decision to air the film.
Ukraine’s Allies
At the 20th Ramstein-format meeting, Ukraine presented a 2024 war plan to key allies, highlighting the critical need for more military aid amidst increased Russian aggression. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov emphasized the urgent demand for ammunition, with several countries pledging artillery shells and Germany committing to $540 million in aid, including 10,000 artillery rounds. Additionally, Ukraine is set to receive more air defense missiles to safeguard against Russian attacks, with concerns that munitions for some air defense systems might deplete by month’s end. Discussions with U.S. officials focused on fortifications, air defense enhancement, and electronic warfare equipment, alongside a push for long-range weapons to disrupt Russian supply lines. The meeting also saw commitments to drone contributions and efforts to expedite the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, with the defense meetings raising nearly $88 billion in military aid for Ukraine to date.
European Council President Charles Michel urged EU leaders to boost joint defense spending and expedite military aid to Ukraine, emphasizing the need for ammunition. Ukraine faces critical shortages amid stalled U.S. funding. EU summit on 21-22 March will address these issues. Michel called for a significant shift in security and defense investment, stressing the urgency given the current security threat. EU foreign ministers agreed to allocate an additional 5 billion euros in defense assistance for Ukraine in 2024.
European nations, including Germany, Poland, and potentially Sweden, the UK, and Italy, are forming an “armored vehicle coalition” to aid Ukraine. The EU is drafting a law to redirect 90% of profits from frozen Russian assets to a fund, with most of it earmarked for Ukraine’s security support. EU’s Josep Borrell proposes this, alongside a 10% allocation to boost Ukraine’s defense industry. The proposal goes to member states on March 20. Delays in distributing a 5-billion-euro ($5.4 billion) defense fund agreed upon by EU leaders. Roughly $300 billion in Russian assets frozen since the 2022 invasion. The proposal aims to allocate $3.3 billion annually for Ukraine’s defense. Summit to discuss on March 21. U.S. aid blocked, increasing reliance on European assistance.
Canada, Finland, and Germany, along with the Czech Republic, are ramping up support for Ukraine amid delays in U.S. military aid. Canada pledged nearly $30 million, while Finland committed 30 million euros ($35.6 million) to provide artillery ammunition. The Czech-led initiative, supported by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, secured 300,000 shells, with commitments for 200,000 more. Additionally, Canada offered $7.5 million in night vision equipment and joined Ukraine’s Drone Capability Coalition. Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced a 500-million-euro ($540 million) aid package during a Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, including artillery shells and logistical support. Germany will also finance 180,000 artillery shells through the Czech-led initiative.
Belgium has pledged defense aid packages for Ukraine valued at 412 million euros ($445 million), including 300 Iveco Lynx light tactical vehicles, as reported by Shephard Media on March 18. The aid also encompasses three minehunter vessels and armored ambulances, with plans for joint purchases of reconnaissance drones. The largest portion of the aid consists of artillery shells, addressing Ukraine’s critical ammunition shortages.
Berlin and Warsaw have agreed to establish an “armored vehicles coalition” to enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities, according to Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz. The coalition, announced following talks between Kosiniak-Kamysz and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius in Warsaw, will commence operations on March 26. The initiative joins other coalitions within the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, including those focused on artillery, fighter jets, and demining. Additional partners such as the U.K., Italy, and Sweden have expressed interest. During a press conference, Pistorius and Kosiniak-Kamysz also revealed plans for Poland and Germany to lead rapid reaction forces in Europe, with battlegroups ready from July onward.
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expressed optimism that Ukrainian forces will have sufficient ammunition by April, aided by contributions from allies. This comes amid a critical shortage and stalled U.S. funding. The loss of Avdiivka has been linked to these delays. A Czech-led effort is underway to provide Ukraine with 800,000 artillery rounds, with deliveries expected to start by June. Luxembourg has joined this initiative, which is seen as crucial for front-line defense. Ukraine is also anticipating medium- and long-range missiles to disrupt Russian supply lines. Current estimates show Russia outpacing Ukraine significantly in shell production, underscoring the urgency for international support.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine’s survival is at risk amid Russia’s invasion, impacting American security. Aid to Ukraine is stalled in Congress since 2023. Senate passed $60 billion aid, but House hasn’t voted. Ammunition shortage in Ukraine poses a grave concern, especially for artillery shells and air defenses. Ukraine may soon reduce missile interceptions due to munition scarcity.
The U.S. Defense Department’s Inspector General launched “Oversight Ukraine” website to track American assistance to Ukraine amid stalled aid in Congress. The site ensures transparency in supervising aid usage, focusing on security, economic, and humanitarian aspects. It includes oversight from 20 agencies and provides avenues to report misuse. U.S. pledged $300 million defense aid to Ukraine in March. Despite aid concerns, no military aid theft cases have been found in past inspections.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump assured continued U.S. support to NATO but emphasized fair contributions from other members. He reiterated the importance of NATO members meeting defense spending targets. Trump’s remarks come amid concerns over his stance on NATO funding and U.S. aid to Ukraine, which has led to a deadlock in Congress.
The EU agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia in response to the death of opposition figure Alexei Navalny, confirmed by Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat. The sanctions target approximately 30 individuals, as reported by Bloomberg earlier in March. Navalny died in a Russian penal colony in February, prompting condemnation from several countries, including the U.S., the U.K., Canada, and Australia. Navalny’s imprisonment and subsequent death have been widely criticized, with leaders worldwide attributing blame to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The circumstances surrounding Navalny’s death remain uncertain, with questions raised about the conditions of his imprisonment.
Ukraine and Estonia are collaborating on a draft bilateral security agreement as part of Ukraine’s efforts to strengthen ties with Western allies amid the ongoing conflict with Russia. Negotiations, led by Ukrainian and Estonian delegations, aim to establish a comprehensive security pact similar to those signed with other Western nations. Estonia has been a significant military supporter of Ukraine and has pledged substantial aid, reflecting a mutual commitment to security.
Estonia has expelled a Russian Embassy employee, citing unacceptable interference in the country’s internal affairs and judicial processes, including acquiring and leaking documents to Russian social media. This action reflects escalating tensions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Estonia previously halting a Russian hybrid operation. Additionally, a leading figure of the Estonian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate left after his support for Russia’s aggression led to a revoked residence permit. Estonia’s Foreign Minister emphasized the expulsion as a stance against foreign orchestrated actions within Estonian borders, though details on the diplomat’s specific actions remain unspecified.
Moldova expelled a Russian diplomat following unauthorized presidential elections conducted by Russia in Transnistria, a region under Moldovan sovereignty but occupied by Russian forces since the early 1990s. Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi conveyed the country’s protest to the Russian ambassador, emphasizing the violation of Moldova’s stance on its territorial integrity. The disputed elections, part of a wider effort by Russia to extend Vladimir Putin’s presidency, also took place in occupied Ukrainian regions, drawing international condemnation from the EU, U.S., U.K., and Canada for their illegitimacy.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Armenia for the first time, discussing regional security with leaders. Stoltenberg praised Armenia’s partnership with NATO, urging stability in the South Caucasus. He emphasized support for Armenian sovereignty and called for peace efforts with Azerbaijan. Stoltenberg also highlighted solidarity with Ukraine against Russian aggression and discussed Armenia’s domestic reforms. Armenia has distanced itself from Russia, considering EU membership and joining the International Criminal Court.
To avoid U.S. sanctions, Armenia’s Central Bank is set to prohibit local banks from using Russia’s “Mir” payment system by the end of March. This move follows similar actions by Turkey and Uzbekistan last year and comes after the U.S. sanctioned the operator of “Mir” and VTB Bank, with which only one Armenian bank, VTB-Armenia, plans to continue using “Mir”.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian officials are directly involved in the illegal transfer of Ukrainian children to Russian-occupied areas and Russia itself. Maria Lvova-Belova reported the relocation of 84 children from Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia to Crimea for “rehabilitation,” with a total of 150 children moved in 2023. The Security Service of Ukraine implicated Russian Duma deputy Yana Lantratova and Inna Varlamova in these deportations, including the removal of children from a Kherson orphanage to Moscow. Investigations have exposed the creation of fake documents to facilitate these actions, highlighting a systematic effort to deport Ukrainian children.
Russia News
The Russian Defense Ministry reported a rocket strike on Belgorod Oblast, part of a series of alleged attacks on the region near the Ukrainian border, with previous incidents reported on March 16, 17, and 18. These claims, including civilian casualties, have not been independently verified. The attacks follow recent clashes involving Russian anti-Kremlin militias. The ministry claimed to have intercepted nine rockets from a Czech-made RM-70 Vampire launcher. Regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov reported injuries and damage to residential and public buildings, as well as vehicles, in several villages including Razumnoye, Nikolskoye, Nizhny Olshanets, and Belovskoye. Visuals from social media show damaged cars and smoke in Belgorod.
Admiral Alexander Moiseev has taken over as acting Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy, replacing Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov. The change was confirmed at a naval ceremony in Kronstadt, St. Petersburg. This shift in command might be linked to structural changes within the Russian military’s strategic territorial organizations.
Anti-Kremlin militias engaging in combat in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast report ongoing clashes and the capture of Russian soldiers. The Freedom of Russia Legion, Siberian Battalion, and Russian Volunteer Corps initiated incursions on March 12, claiming to have taken 25 Russian prisoners and seized local government buildings. Despite acknowledging losses, the militias refute Kremlin’s exaggerated casualty figures. Their actions aim to distract Russian forces from the Ukrainian front, with claims of effective resistance and even drawing special Russian units into the conflict. Russia, initially downplaying the attack. Ukraine’s military intelligence supports these militias, acknowledging their evolving role from mere groups to significant forces against Russia.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Russian forces thwarted sabotage and reconnaissance efforts by a pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteer group near Kozinka in the Belgorod Oblast.
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced plans to evacuate 9,000 children from areas close to the Ukraine border due to escalating security concerns. This decision follows incidents of violence and alleged attacks in the region, including a rocket strike on Belgorod. The evacuations will cover Belgorod and its surrounding districts, including Shebekino and Grayvoron. This is not the first evacuation in the region; Shebekino residents were previously moved in June 2023 but returned in July. In January 2024, around 100 children were also evacuated from Belgorod to Voronezh Oblast after an attack.
Ukraine’s drone strikes have significantly impacted Russia’s oil-refining capabilities, reducing them by an estimated 600,000 barrels daily, according to Gunvor Group’s director. These attacks have targeted oil refineries across Russia, causing an uptick in diesel and gasoline futures. The reduction in refining capacity is expected to decrease Russia’s distillate exports. Before withdrawing in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Gunvor Group was heavily involved in Russian petroleum trading. JPMorgan Chase & Co. puts the reduction higher, at around 900,000 barrels per day. The Ukrainian Security Service’s drones have hit 12 refineries, aligning with efforts to disrupt Russia during its recent presidential elections, which extended Putin’s tenure.
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) declared that athletes from Russia and Belarus won’t participate in the Paris Olympics opening ceremony due to the Ukraine conflict. They’ll compete as Individual Neutral Athletes. Athletes won’t march but can still experience the event. The decision on their participation in the closing ceremony will come later. Russia faced a previous ban due to doping violations and is now ineligible due to the Ukraine conflict. Ukrainian officials expressed disappointment, fearing the politicization of the games.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Andrei Kartapolov, Chairman of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, announced that the upcoming spring conscription cycle will not see an increase in the number of conscripts compared to fall 2023. The cycle will run from April 1 to July 15, with both electronic and paper summonses. Kartapolov also assured that conscripts would not be sent to the conflict zone in Ukraine.
The Russian State Duma passed a law exempting individuals from criminal charges if they agree to enlist in the military, potentially broadening Russia’s recruitment pool beyond current schemes involving convicts.
Russia’s Allies
Russia is actively engaging with Iran, North Korea, and China to form a coalition against Western influence. Meetings between Russian and Chinese officials focused on criticizing U.S. actions in Asia and promoting stronger military and media relations. Russia’s trades with North Korea and talks with Iran indicate a strategy to enhance its geopolitical stance and security influence in the region, countering what they describe as Western “bloc thinking.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is slated to visit China in May for discussions with President Xi Jinping, marking his potential first foreign trip since winning a fifth term. The visit, amidst Western criticism of Russia’s election process and continued support from China during the Ukraine conflict, underscores the deepening ties between Moscow and Beijing. This meeting is part of a series of high-level engagements, with Putin’s visit expected before Xi’s planned trip to Europe. Details remain tentative, with official confirmation pending.
Moldova is facing internal instability driven by pro-Russian elements. A Russian diplomat has been expelled for organizing unauthorized election polling stations, and Russia has promised to retaliate. Pro-Russian Moldovan politician Ilan Shor, currently in exile and facing legal issues, plans to return and seek the prime ministership. Additionally, the pro-Russian governor of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, is suing President Maia Sandu for defamation, likely as part of broader attempts to undermine Sandu’s government ahead of upcoming elections.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
After winning another presidential term, Putin praised the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) as crucial for the country’s safety, hinting that security services will remain influential in his leadership. Putin’s speech to the FSB after the election emphasized their role in national security, including actions in Ukraine, preventing foreign interference, and countering terrorism and corruption. He reassured that his regime is backed by a strong security force, while signaling unity among Russian power players, consolidating support for his ongoing policies, especially concerning Ukraine.
Russian officials are accused of inflating President Putin’s election support, claiming over 1.4 million votes in occupied Luhansk, a number exceeding the region’s total population. The Yellow Ribbon partisan group highlights much lower actual turnout in occupied Ukraine, attributing discrepancies to limited Russian journalistic presence and unclear population data in these areas.
Russian officials, aiming to deter Western support for Ukraine, have issued warnings of potential escalation. Sergei Naryshkin of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service falsely stated that France plans to deploy 2,000 soldiers to Ukraine, declaring any French forces there as targets for Russia. These claims have not been confirmed by French authorities. President Macron, while discussing Western troop support, emphasized that current conditions do not necessitate such measures but advocated for increased security assistance to Ukraine. Russia’s narrative suggests that Western aid is provocative, despite no significant Russian response to past instances where perceived “red lines” were crossed.
Russia has dismissed the idea of holding arms control talks with the United States, labeling such discussions as unrealistic. Despite the U.S. expressing willingness to engage without preconditions, Russian representatives at the UN see no foundation for new agreements. Dmitry Medvedev likened potential talks to absurd historical negotiations, emphasizing a stance that often blames the U.S. for lack of strategic stability while framing the conflict in Ukraine as a broader confrontation with the West.
Kremlin officials allege Western meddling in Russia’s presidential election. Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry accused hostile nations of trying to disrupt the election process overseas. Furthermore, the Russian Embassy in London charged UK officials with seeking to undermine the election’s credibility, specifically accusing British missions in Russia of encouraging acts that could damage ballot boxes, based on incidents of disruption by Russian citizens at polling stations.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com