Summary of the day: The Russian military is reportedly forming reserves to sustain ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, although these reserves may not be effective for large-scale maneuvers within the year. There have been recent Russian troop advances near Bakhmut and in east Kherson Oblast, alongside confirmed larger missile strikes on Kyiv City. The situation is exacerbated by delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine, potentially increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses. Meanwhile, discussions on the geopolitical context underline that Ukraine and NATO did not provoke Russia’s invasion, with NATO officials praising Ukrainian military innovations and the international community responding with sanctions affecting Russia’s financial engagements.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Russian Threats and Actions Beyond Ukraine
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned of “extremely negative” consequences if foreign troops were sent to Ukraine, responding to French talks about possibly deploying military personnel. Despite such threats, Russia has yet to significantly react to Western security aid to Ukraine, which it has called major escalations in the past.
Kremlin-affiliated commentators have criticized Armenia’s growing ties with the European Union, suggesting that such cooperation undermines Armenian sovereignty. This stance reflects the ongoing decline in Russian-Armenian relations.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses, using their superiority in manpower and equipment to conduct continuous assaults. They’re expanding the use of drones, tactical aviation, and electronic warfare, often outgunning Ukrainian artillery significantly. Russian tactics involve detailed reconnaissance, glide-bomb strikes, and artillery preparation before ground assaults, aiming to weaken Ukrainian positions for capture and fortification. Ukrainian forces face challenges due to ammunition shortages, affecting their ability to conduct counterattacks and defend against Russian advances effectively. Despite these challenges, well-equipped Ukrainian units have been successful in thwarting Russian tactical advances.
Ukrainian forces have stabilized the situation in eastern Ukraine, according to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. This update comes after the loss of Avdiivka and nearby settlements to Russian forces, who were then aiming to break through near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast amid a Ukrainian ammunition shortage. In discussions with France’s army chief, Thierry Burkhard, Syrskyi expressed gratitude for France’s support, including training for Ukrainian soldiers. France has provided substantial security assistance to Ukraine, totaling over 3.8 billion euros, with 2.6 billion euros dedicated to military aid. France has also supplied long-range SCALP missiles to Ukraine, and President Macron has not excluded the possibility of sending troops. President Zelensky recently described the frontline situation as improved compared to recent months. Additionally, despite Russian assaults, the front line near Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains stable but dynamic.
Following successful Ukrainian strikes, Russia is moving its Black Sea Fleet from Crimea to Novorossiysk for safety, as reported by Ukraine’s military intelligence on March 21. HUR spokesperson Andrii Yusov noted the ongoing transfer of fleet headquarters and ships, stating a complete withdrawal from Crimea is not feasible as it would imply defeat. The relocation began last year after Ukrainian attacks, including a missile strike on the fleet’s Sevastopol headquarters. Recent satellite imagery showed significant vessel movements, and continued losses have been reported, notably the sinking of the Sergey Kotov patrol ship by Ukrainian drones. As a countermeasure, Russia is arming its ships with heavy-caliber machine guns to counter sea drones, with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu emphasizing these adjustments during a visit to Sevastopol. Yusov hinted at Ukraine’s plans for innovative future attacks encompassing air, sea, and land operations.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russiа
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Positional battles are ongoing along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, with Russian and Ukrainian forces engaging in various locations including Synkivka, Terny, Yampolivka, Zolotarivka, and Bilohorivka. Notably, in the Bilohorivka area, units from several Russian motorized rifle brigades and the “Akhmat” Special Forces detachment are actively involved. These engagements are part of the broader conflict dynamics in the region.
Russian forces have made advancements near Bakhmut, specifically north of Ivanivske to the west of the city. While Russia claims to have captured the Alebastrova railway station near Klishchiivka, this has not been independently verified. The area continues to see positional battles in various locations around Bakhmut, including near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Niu York. Russian forces are also active near Soledar, northeast of Bakhmut.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that its forces captured Tonenke, west of Avdiivka, but this is not widely corroborated by Russian military bloggers. Instead, there are reports of advancements in and around Tonenke and Orlivka. Claims of controlling half of Berdychi, northwest of Avdiivka, also lack independent confirmation. Fighting continues in several areas around Avdiivka, including Berdychi, Semenivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Netaylove, and Nevelske, with specific Russian military units identified near Berdychi.
Ongoing positional fighting was reported west and southwest of Donetsk City, specifically near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane. No changes to the frontline were confirmed. Russian forces are active near Krasnohorivka.
There was ongoing positional fighting in the areas near Staromayorske and Urozhaine, located south of Velyka Novosilka on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border.
Ongoing positional battles were reported in western Zaporizhia Oblast, specifically near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove, without any changes to the frontline.
Russian forces have achieved a confirmed advancement north of Pidstepne, near the Dnipro River in east Kherson Oblast, with the timing of this advance being unclear. There were ongoing positional battles in the area, particularly near Krynky. Ukrainian forces are reported to be active near the Antonivsky roadway bridge north of Oleshky.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that their air defenses shot down three Ukrainian drones over Crimea.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 3 people and injuries to at least 32 others:
- A Russian missile attack on Kyiv injured at least 13 people and damaged residential areas, infrastructure, and a kindergarten. Kyiv’s Mayor reported two hospitalizations, including an 11-year-old girl among the victims. Ukrainian air defense intercepted all launched missiles, including two ballistic and 29 cruise missiles. The attacks led to widespread damage, with emergency services responding to various sites, including fires in residential buildings and a transformer substation. Additionally, a warehouse of the online retailer Rozetka was damaged during the attack, though no employees were injured as they were in a shelter. Missile fragments also caused injuries and damage in other parts of Kyiv Oblast resulting in the injury of four others.
- A Russian missile attack on Mykolaiv resulted in the death of one woman and injuries to six civilians.
- Russian forces launched 20 attacks on settlements in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in two deaths in Volnovakha district and two civilian injuries in Pokrovsk district.
- In Sumy Oblast, Russia conducted 68 separate attacks, hitting settlements 478 times in one day, resulting in two injuries in Yunakivka and Bilopillia districts.
- In Kherson Oblast, four individuals were injured following Russian strikes on 12 locations, including Kherson city.
- In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a Russian attack on the Nikopol district resulted in one person wounded and damage to a shop, as well as industrial and municipal enterprises.
- In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Russia attacked nine settlements, resulting in damage to 35 residential buildings and various infrastructure facilities. There were no civilian casualties.
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack in Kyiv
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a ballistic missile from occupied Crimea, striking Mykolaiv City. The attack, reported by Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, damaged an industrial facility.
Russian forces targeted energy facilities in Kharkiv, causing at least 15 explosions and widespread power outages in the city. Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported the city was nearly without power following the strikes. Additionally, Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov noted disruptions in water supply due to the blackouts affecting pumping stations. There are no immediate reports of civilian casualties or further infrastructure damage. This attack is part of a pattern of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, significantly impacting power, water, and heating supplies, especially noted during the recent winter months.
President Zelensky reported that the missiles Russia used in an attack against Kyiv on March 21 contained about 1,500 foreign components. During this assault, Russia fired 31 missiles, including two Kinzhal ballistic and 29 cruise missiles, all targeting Kyiv and its vicinity. Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted all missiles, but the attack resulted in injuries to at least 17 people across Kyiv and its oblast. Zelensky highlighted that these missiles incorporate significant numbers of parts produced abroad, imported into Russia through “gray” channels. He emphasized the importance of blocking these supply routes and called for more sanctions to prevent the flow of these components, underlining that despite sanctions, Russia continues to acquire critical materials for its defense sector through third-party countries. The EU has responded with measures to curb the re-export of sensitive goods to Russia.
In an address to the European Council summit, President Volodymyr Zelensky urged EU leaders to increase military support for Ukraine, emphasizing the need for more ammunition and air defense systems. He highlighted the country’s dire need to protect its entirety, especially the south and east, from daily Russian bombardments. Zelensky criticized the current level of artillery support as insufficient and called for enhanced EU defense production. He also welcomed the EU’s plan to establish a Defense Innovation office in Kyiv and pushed for investments in Ukrainian drone manufacturing. Zelensky critiqued the imbalance in trade, noting the unfair treatment of Ukrainian exports compared to Russian and Belarusian goods. He stressed the importance of beginning negotiations on Ukraine’s EU accession to motivate the Ukrainian people in their conflict with Russia. Moreover, Zelensky proposed using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction, supporting a European Commission proposal to allocate €3 billion annually from these assets to Ukraine. However, consensus among EU leaders on this issue remains uncertain, with Hungary reportedly opposing the use of Russian assets to enhance Ukraine’s military capabilities.
Ukrhydroenergo, Ukraine’s state energy company, reports losses of €3 billion due to Russian attacks, with the destruction of the Kakhovka dam alone accounting for over €2.5 billion. Additional damages from missile and drone strikes on their facilities amount to about €500 million. The company is preparing a legal strategy for compensation and prosecution for these intentional attacks. The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant in June 2023 led to widespread humanitarian and environmental impacts. The Ukrainian government has initiated a two-stage reconstruction project for the plant, expected to last two years, while a new dam and station would require at least five years and $1 billion to build.
The IMF approved Ukraine’s third loan program review, releasing $880 million for budget support out of a total of $5.4 billion. Despite ongoing war risks, the IMF anticipates de-escalation by 2024. Ukraine met most performance criteria, with minor discrepancies in tax revenues. Funds are expected soon. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted Ukraine’s resilience amid war costs and emphasized the importance of anti-corruption reforms for fiscal stability and EU accession.
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer opposes using profits from frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine, contrary to the European Commission’s proposal. The Commission suggests allocating 90% of profits for Ukrainian weapons and 10% for the EU budget to support Ukraine’s defense industry, totaling around 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) annually. Austria, remaining neutral, insists on ensuring its approved funds do not fund weaponry. While condemning Russian aggression, Austria abstains from donating lethal military aid, adhering to its neutrality policy despite strong economic ties with Russia, exemplified by the presence of Raiffeisen Bank International, labeled “systemically important” by the Russian central bank, within Russia despite sanctions.
Ukraine’s Allies
Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO Military Committee Chair, visited Kyiv marking the first NATO military delegation visit since the invasion started in 2022. Bauer emphasized NATO’s close ties with Ukraine, stating, “NATO and Ukraine are closer than ever.” He referenced Sweden’s recent NATO membership, highlighting unity against Russian aggression. Bauer cautioned against pessimism in the war, affirming support for Ukraine’s victory. Despite Ukraine’s NATO application, membership prospects during the ongoing conflict remain uncertain. Bauer previously warned of potential conflict with Russia in the next two decades, urging readiness among NATO nations. He also emphasized that Ukraine and NATO were not provocations for Russia’s invasion and countered claims of a security threat. Bauer highlighted that Russian President Putin has not met strategic objectives in Ukraine, such as weakening NATO and expanding Russian territory. He noted Ukrainian military innovations impacting modern warfare, emphasizing the importance of Western support for Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
French Armed Forces Chief, General Thierry Burkhard, warned that Western support for Ukraine might extend to troops on the ground, challenging Putin’s assumption that the West will only supply arms. Burkhard emphasized the need to deter Putin’s strategy and highlighted the European responsibility in ensuring future security. His remarks align with French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent statements about possible troop deployment in Ukraine, signaling a shift in France’s stance on the conflict. While Macron has not set a timeline for a visit to Kyiv, he pledged to offer solutions to the ongoing war.
Estonia’s pledge of a 20-million-euro ($22 million) defense aid package to Ukraine, comprising anti-tank weapons, ammunition, and protective gear, addresses critical shortages exacerbated by delays in U.S. assistance. This donation includes 155 mm artillery shells, part of the EU’s initiative to supply 1 million rounds, with Denmark assisting in funding. Estonia’s commitment follows the EU’s shortfall in delivering promised shells, prompting Czechia to gather funds for additional purchases. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur affirmed the necessity of aid during discussions with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, highlighting Estonia’s role as a significant military donor to Ukraine. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stressed the importance of preventing World War III by ensuring a Russian defeat in the war on Ukraine, emphasizing Estonia’s unwavering support. She called for sustainable peace, warning of dire consequences if Ukraine falls and advocating for increased defense spending in Europe. Kallas supported French President Macron’s strategy of “strategic ambiguity” regarding potential Western troop deployment to Ukraine, aligning with efforts to deter Russian aggression.
US sanctions are impacting the financial operations in post-Soviet states, leading two Kazakhstani banks to halt the use of Russia’s “Mir” payment system to avoid secondary sanctions. Freedom Finance Bank and Bereke Bank have ceased operations with “Mir” following US actions against entities linked to the system. Bereke Bank, formerly owned by Russia’s sanctioned Sberbank and now under Kazakh government ownership, was recently cleared of sanctions by the US Treasury. Additionally, Armenia is set to restrict the “Mir” system, with the majority of its commercial banks discontinuing its use. This move comes after the US sanctioned the “Mir” system’s operator in February 2024.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukraine’s military intelligence highlights the railway Russia is building from Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, via occupied Ukrainian territories, as a major challenge and target. This railway, intended as an alternative to the Crimean Bridge for resupplying Russian forces in Crimea, is seen as critical infrastructure by Moscow. With the Crimean Bridge’s functionality compromised due to Ukrainian attacks, Russia is focusing on completing this rail link. Ukraine is determined to prevent its completion, underlining the strategic importance of disrupting Russian logistics routes.
Russian troops targeted energy facilities in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast, specifically in Kakhovka, leaving the city without gas, electricity, and water. Kakhovka, a city previously home to around 34,750 people, has been under Russian control since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. The attack, labeled as a “provocation” by Yurii Sobolevskyi, the first deputy head of the Kherson Oblast Council, was falsely attributed to Ukrainian forces by Russian proxies. Sobolevskyi emphasized that the Ukrainian military targets only military sites and criticized the action as characteristic of Russian tactics. Following the liberation of Kherson city and other areas in 2022, Russian forces have continued to shell the region from across the Dnipro River, causing civilian casualties and widespread damage. Recent attacks have resulted in two deaths and four injuries in Kherson Oblast, affecting 12 cities and villages.
Russia News
Bloomberg reported that pro-Ukrainian forces’ activities in Belgorod Oblast are prompting Russia to redirect military resources from the front lines to this region. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has not verified these claims. Russian military bloggers and officials have stated that their forces, including conscripts and special units, successfully countered incursions in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts, with support from Chechen units. The situation reflects the Kremlin’s challenge in balancing the need to protect its borders and maintain public confidence without compromising its military engagement in Ukraine. The impact of such incursions on Russia’s reputation may be mitigated by increased censorship.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Vice Admiral Konstantin Kabantsov is now the acting Commander of the Russian Northern Fleet. Kabantsov, previously the Fleet’s First Deputy Commander, succeeds Admiral Alexander Moiseev, who has been appointed acting Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy.
During Russia’s Baltic Fleet military exercises on March 19, a missile strike hit a Russian fishing trawler, “Captain Lobanov,” resulting in three deaths and four injuries, contrary to official Russian reports claiming a fire onboard caused one fatality. A relative of one of the deceased told Russian TV Rain about the discrepancy and mentioned that survivors were interrogated by FSB officers, who urged them not to discuss the incident. The Baltic Fleet’s exercises included anti-submarine warfare and missile firing practices, as reported by Russian state media. The incident’s details remain unverified by independent sources.
The recruitment of inmates into the Russian army for the war in Ukraine has led to the closure of two prison colonies in Krasnodar Krai, due to a significant decrease in the prisoner population. This recruitment began in summer 2022, initially through the Wagner group and later directly by the Russian Defense Ministry. Many of these recruits, including those convicted of violent crimes, were promised pardons for completing a six-month military stint, often serving in high-casualty roles. Despite the closures, the regional commissioner for human rights views the reduction in inmate numbers as temporary and opposes the prisons’ shutdown. Recent changes stipulate that these military contracts now last a year, with parole granted instead of a pardon, conditional upon receiving a military award, sustaining serious injuries, reaching service age limit, or the war’s conclusion.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russia is working to build up its military reserves for ongoing operations in Ukraine but faces significant challenges. Due to shortages of materials and manpower, it’s unlikely these reserves will be fully equipped or capable of large-scale actions by summer 2024, as hoped. Russian forces are adjusting to these limitations by prioritizing manpower over armored vehicles, leading to higher personnel losses. Despite these challenges, Russia continues to replenish its forces, aiming to maintain the current offensive pace without significant operational breaks. However, the effectiveness of these “strategic reserves” in large-scale assaults remains doubtful due to these constraints.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and other officials have been actively promoting the support of Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) for the war in Ukraine. During a visit to enterprises in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Shoigu was informed of a significant increase in production of various aerial bombs and artillery, with one plant starting mass production of FAB-3000 bombs and doubling output of other bomb types. Another plant was noted for its ability to produce sufficient artillery ammunition for Russian forces in Ukraine. Additionally, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairperson of the Russian Security Council, encouraged faster production at Russia’s Tambov gunpowder plant to aid the military effort.
Russia’s Allies
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban congratulated Vladimir Putin on his re-election win, emphasizing their countries’ cooperation based on mutual respect. Orban affirmed Hungary’s commitment to peace and readiness for intensified cooperation within legal bounds, despite criticism from other European leaders regarding the election’s legitimacy. Hungary remains the only EU country maintaining close ties with Russia amid opposition to sanctions and EU support for Ukraine. Putin won the election with 87.2% of the vote in an election widely criticized as tightly controlled without meaningful opposition participation. Orban has refrained from labeling the conflict in Ukraine as a war, instead terming it a “military operation” in line with Kremlin rhetoric.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com