Summary of the day: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s statement challenges the Kremlin’s narrative on the Crocus City Hall attack, suggesting the attackers fled towards Belarus, not Ukraine. This development, along with Russian officials’ inconsistent responses and impractical solutions to calls for retribution, underscores a narrative and operational disarray within the Kremlin. Concurrently, the Moldovan Constitutional Court’s decision to reverse a ban on the Kremlin-affiliated Shor Party, Ukrainian forces’ successful strike against a captured ship, the use of advanced communication technologies by Russian forces in Ukraine, and confirmed Russian military advances near Kreminna and Bakhmut, along with recruitment for the newly reformed Leningrad Military District, reflect the ongoing and multifaceted nature of regional tensions and strategic dynamics.
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Russian Plans of Conquest Beyond Ukraine
The Moldovan Constitutional Court overturned a ban on the pro-Kremlin Shor Party, paving the way for its members to participate in upcoming elections. This decision reverses earlier attempts to exclude the party, founded by US-sanctioned Ilan Shor, convicted in absentia for fraud and money laundering, from Moldovan politics. Previously, legislative changes sought to disqualify individuals from parties deemed unconstitutional, but these were also struck down as unconstitutional. The move potentially strengthens pro-Russian influence in Moldova, with Kremlin-affiliated figures expressing readiness for cooperation with Shor Party offshoots. This development signals a likely shift in the Kremlin’s strategy to exploit Moldovan politics, particularly ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections, aiming to destabilize Moldova’s pro-Western orientation.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian forces struck the Kostyantyn Olshanskyi, a landing ship seized during Crimea’s annexation in 2014, with a Neptune missile as it was being refurbished in Sevastopol on March 23. The strike, targeting the now-renamed Konstantin Olshansky, is part of ongoing operations against Russian naval assets and infrastructure in Crimea, aimed at disrupting Russian naval operations in the Black Sea. This broader campaign has led to significant damages, with Ukrainian intelligence indicating the effectiveness of such actions. Furthermore, Ukraine’s successful strikes on the Kerch Strait Bridge have led Russia to stop using the bridge for military transfers. In response to these losses, which include approximately 33% of its warships, Russia has recently appointed a new Navy commander.
Western media investigations suggest Russian forces might be using Starlink terminals in Ukraine, circumventing US sanctions. Reports from CNN and Bloomberg highlight increased sightings by Ukrainian troops of Starlink devices with Russians, despite restrictions. The investigations point to the purchase of Starlink technology through third-party countries and illegal trades on the black market, raising concerns over connection speeds and access issues for Ukrainian forces. Despite the capability of SpaceX, Starlink’s operator, to potentially block these uses, the effectiveness of such measures remains in question.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian and Russian forces have made slight territorial gains amid ongoing clashes along the Kupyansk-Kreminna line. Ukraine recaptured areas near Synkivka, northeast of Kupyansk, while Russia advanced near Terny, west of Kreminna. The conflict continues with both sides engaging in positional battles across several fronts, including near Kupyansk and Kreminna. Russian forces are also active near Bilohorivka. The situation remains dynamic with both advances and counterattacks reported.
Russian forces achieved a small advance near Bakhmut, with ongoing battles reported in the area. Geolocated footage shows a slight Russian gain northeast of Chasiv Yar’s suburb, Kanal. Fighting continues in multiple locations around Bakhmut, including near Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Niu York. Despite claims by Russian bloggers of capturing Ivanivske and making progress near Ivanivske and Klishchiivka, there’s no visual confirmation of these assertions.
Around Avdiivka, fighting persisted without confirmed frontline changes. Russian claims suggest their forces entered Semenivka, with battles ongoing. They aim to control key Ukrainian communication lines there. Clashes are reported in multiple directions around Avdiivka, including near Berdychi, Semenivka, Orlivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Nevelske. Russian forces are involved in demining efforts in the area.
Fighting persisted west and southwest of Donetsk City with no changes in frontline positions confirmed. Battles were reported near Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka, and Pobieda. Russian bloggers claim advances in these areas, including significant control over Novomykhailivka, though these claims lack visual confirmation. Current assessments suggest Russian control of Novomykhailivka is under 50%.
In the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border region, battles persist near Staromayorske, south of Velyka Novosilka. Russian military units are active near Urozhaine and Vuhledar, indicating ongoing military engagements in the area.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, ongoing clashes occurred near Robotyne, Verbove, Mala Tokmachka, and southwest of Bilohirya without any confirmed shifts in frontlines. Russian forces are actively engaged in combat near Robotyne.
Fighting persisted on the east bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky. Recent footage indicates a Ukrainian HIMARS strike targeted a Russian drone operation center near Chornyanka in Kherson Oblast, using a ground-launched small diameter bomb.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
The casualty count from Russia’s March 25 attack on Odesa has increased to 10, with seven currently receiving medical care. Initially, four were reported injured, none critically. The assault involved a “double-tap” strike, aiming to hit responders. Damage includes the Palace of Sports and approximately 300 apartments, with the sports complex located about 5 kilometers from Odesa’s city center.
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the injuries of three people:
- A Russian attack using a drone and heavy artillery in Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine, resulted in the injury of a 91-year-old woman. The assault targeted the Marhanets community in the Nikopol district and the community of Chervonohryhorivka.
- A Russian attack hit the city of Nikopol, damaging nine homes, and disrupting a gas pipeline and a power line. No casualties reported.
- A 50-year-old man was injured by a bomb from a Russian drone in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, and is hospitalized with leg injuries.
- A Russian missile attack on Kharkiv, specifically targeting a sports college dormitory, injured one civilian with shock. The strike, involving a Kh-35 anti-ship missile, damaged the building’s roof and ceilings.
A photo of the woman injured in the Russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
The aftermath of Russian attack on Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, including 12 drones and two missiles overnight, with all drones intercepted over Mykolaiv and Kharkiv oblasts. A residential building in Kharkiv was hit by a cruise missile, and Odesa faced two likely ballistic missile strikes. The Ukrainian Air Force highlights a strategic focus on infrastructure targets, adapting tactics to bypass air defenses. Ukraine emphasizes the need for advanced long-range air defense systems to counter these threats effectively.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba calls for more Patriot air defenses from international partners to safeguard cities against increased Russian missile and drone attacks. Following successful interceptions in Kyiv, Kuleba emphasizes the urgent need for these systems to protect lives and the economy. Amidst a backdrop of dwindling air defense ammo and stalled U.S. aid, Ukraine faces the challenge of limited missile defenses, highlighting the critical role of air defenses in countering Russian aerial threats. Kuleba also expresses frustration over unmet promises for advanced weaponry, indicating that delays and restrictions on military support are hampering Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and contributing to territorial losses.
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) thwarted a sabotage attempt on a railway in Poltava Oblast by two agents linked to Russia’s FSB. The suspects, both Ukrainian citizens, were caught planting explosives on a crucial rail link between central and eastern Ukraine. Communication with a Russian handler was discovered on their phones. They have been charged with sabotage and could face life imprisonment.
President Zelensky has dismissed Oleksiy Danilov from the role of Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, a position he has held since 2019. Danilov, with a background as mayor of Luhansk and a parliamentary member, has not disclosed the reasons for his departure. During his term, Danilov worked on a postponed national register of oligarchs. He will be moving to an unspecified new role. Oleksandr Lytvynenko, previously the director of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, is set to replace Danilov. Additionally, Zelensky has appointed Oleh Ivashchenko as the head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), taking over from Lytvynenko. Ivashchenko, a lieutenant general with experience in military intelligence and the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, will be in charge of an agency responsible for collecting strategic intelligence. These appointments are part of a larger leadership restructuring announced by Zelensky, although the specific reasons for these changes remain undisclosed.
The U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights reports that at least 32 Ukrainian POWs were executed by Russian forces between December 2023 and February 2024. This is part of ongoing war crimes investigations into the treatment of Ukrainian POWs, which include documented cases of torture and inhumane conditions, violating international law. Meanwhile, interviews with 44 Russian POWs indicate torture may have occurred in transit after capture, despite no reports of abuse in official Ukrainian detention facilities. Notably, poor conditions and mistreatment have been specifically reported at Russia’s Olenivka prison in occupied Donetsk.
Ukrainian lawmaker Mariana Bezuhla, previously of President Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, retracted a bill proposing up to 15 years in prison for unauthorized international representation of Ukraine, labeling it a “provocation.” The draft, introduced with Halyna Tretiakova and targeting “appropriation of state functions,” faced immediate backlash and was withdrawn. Critics, including Nobel laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk, condemned the proposal for its potential to stifle democracy and civil liberties. Bezuhla later downplayed the bill, suggesting it aimed to provoke a reaction rather than be enacted, drawing further criticism for the move.
Air Baltic intends to resume flights to Kyiv, Lviv, and Odesa once Ukraine’s airspace reopens, following a closure since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The announcement came after the airline’s CEO, Martin Gauss, visited Kyiv’s Boryspil airport, reviewing preparations and the facility’s readiness to handle flights. Air Baltic aims to reconnect Ukraine with major European cities through flights from these Ukrainian cities via Riga. Between 2019 and 2021, Air Baltic carried 285,600 passengers in 3,644 flights from Boryspil. Similarly, Ryanair plans to return to Ukraine, offering 75 routes from Europe once the airspace is safe, highlighting the aviation sector’s readiness to re-establish Ukraine’s connectivity with Europe.
Two Sumy Oblast council members were arrested for attempting to bribe the head of the Sumy City Military Administration with $100,000, according to the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office. The bribe was in exchange for merging two medical institutions to gain additional funding. They were caught handing over $50,000, which was the first installment. The bribe also included a promise of 10-20% of the institutions’ future budget allocations. Charges are pending, and if convicted, they could face up to 10 years in prison, possibly with property confiscation.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Zelensky of Ukraine met with an Estonian delegation led by Lauri Hussar to discuss Estonia’s continued support for Ukraine, including a new bilateral security agreement. Estonia, a significant military donor based on GDP, plans to dedicate 0.25% of its GDP to military aid for Ukraine over four years. The talks also covered using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, a topic under discussion in the EU and the US. Zelensky thanked Estonia for its support since the war began. Additionally, Hussar discussed sanctions and Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO and EU integration with Ukrainian counterpart Ruslan Stefanchuk.
Ukraine has received an $880 million tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of a $15.6 billion loan program. This latest disbursement is aimed at supporting the country’s budget and maintaining financial stability, bringing the total funds received to $5.4 billion. The IMF praised Ukraine’s adherence to the program’s requirements, despite the challenges posed by the ongoing conflict. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal thanked the IMF for its support.
Czechia aims to supply Ukraine with up to 1.5 million artillery shells, exceeding initial estimates, to support Ukraine amid its ammunition shortage. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky highlighted the initiative has expanded with international financial support, securing funds for 500,000 shells already, with commitments for more. The effort helps Ukraine manage its ammunition use more effectively, amidst a backdrop of significant shortages impacting the conflict, notably the loss of Avdiivka. While the EU and the U.S. have provided some support, the Czech initiative seeks to address urgent needs, with the first deliveries potentially starting as early as June, according to Czech officials.
Slovenia is joining a Czech-led initiative to supply Ukraine with artillery shells, contributing one million euros. Participants include over a dozen countries, addressing Ukraine’s critical ammunition shortage. The first shipments could start as early as June.
Poland and Germany’s initiative, the armored vehicles coalition for Ukraine, held its first meeting in Warsaw with participants including the U.K., Italy, and Sweden. The coalition aims to bolster Ukraine’s military with armored vehicles and discussed repair systems for these vehicles. Key focus areas include supplying weapons and ammunition, training, and developing battlefield tactics. Efforts to establish a repair base for Western armored vehicles in Ukraine are underway, highlighting the initiative’s importance for Ukraine’s defense capabilities. This coalition is part of broader support efforts within the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) framework.
France is set to supply Ukraine with 78 Caesar howitzers and increase its artillery round production to address Kyiv’s urgent needs. This move follows an agreement between France, Ukraine, and Denmark, building on an initial donation of 30 systems. France aims to deliver 80,000 155 mm shells to Ukraine in 2024, up from 30,000 last year, with a total production goal of 100,000 shells to also cover French military needs. Additionally, France is participating in a Czech-led effort to secure more artillery for Ukraine, potentially contributing to a goal of up to 1.5 million shells. This support comes as Ukraine faces critical ammunition shortages, impacting the war’s dynamics and stressing the importance of international aid.
NATO is contemplating intercepting Russian missiles near its borders, following incidents where Russian missiles entered Polish airspace, most recently for 39 seconds during an attack on Ukraine on March 24. Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Andrzej Szejna, mentioned that NATO is reviewing strategies to counter such threats and emphasized that any action would require Ukrainian approval. Previous incidents include a missile alert in December 2023 and a stray missile hitting Poland in November 2022, which was determined to be a Ukrainian defense missile.
During a three-day visit to Brazil, French President Emmanuel Macron aims to persuade Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to support Ukraine amid the ongoing conflict. This marks the first visit by a French president to Brazil in over a decade. Macron, a vocal supporter of Ukraine, faces challenges with Lula, who has maintained a stance of neutrality and mediation in the war, consistently rejecting the idea of arming Ukraine. Lula has suggested both sides are to blame for the conflict and has previously declined a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, proposing that Ukraine could consider ceding Crimea for peace.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Russian forces are intensifying their control in occupied Ukrainian territories. Officials from both sides met to discuss strengthening Rosgvardia’s presence, with over 35,000 personnel already in place. Following an attack in Moscow, Russia has ramped up security measures in these areas, deploying additional forces and cracking down on the local population. Over 10,000 Ukrainians have been detained unlawfully, with more than 5,600 reported cases of torture. The situation contributes to a pervasive “climate of fear” among those living under Russian occupation.
Ukrainian partisans attacked a Russian military base in Melitopol, killing 20 and destroying vehicles and equipment. Following this, Russian authorities arrested two Ukrainians for attacks on Russian forces between August and December 2023.
Russia News
Some of Putin’s inner circle doubt Ukraine’s role in the Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow, despite initial claims linking Kyiv to the incident. The Islamic State took responsibility for the March 22 attack, which killed 139. While discussions among Russian officials concluded no link to Ukraine, Putin aimed to use the event to bolster support for the war in Ukraine. The White House and Kremlin insiders question the accusation against Ukraine, highlighting a security lapse and suggesting the attack might be used to justify increased actions against Ukraine and mobilize support in Russia. Four men from Tajikistan have been charged with terrorism, with more suspects detained.
The U.S. warned Russia about a potential terrorist threat before the Crocus City Hall attack in Moscow, which left 139 dead. The warning was general, according to FSB chief Alexander Bortnikov, and despite actions taken, the threat wasn’t confirmed beforehand. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the March 22 attack. Prior, the U.S. Embassy and other countries had advised avoiding crowded areas in Moscow due to imminent extremism risks.
In response to the Crocus City Hall attack, Russian officials have proposed several measures targeting migrants and reconsidering the death penalty, though these suggestions appear impractical. Proposals include abolishing visa-free entry for Central Asians to prevent terrorism and introducing harsher measures against migrants, with mixed reactions among Russian politicians and criticisms about the potential strain on Russia-Central Asia relations. Additionally, there’s discussion on lifting the moratorium on the death penalty for terrorism, debated through possible federal referendum or Constitutional Court decision, despite Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stating no current discussions on this change. Given Russia’s reliance on Central Asian labor and the longstanding moratorium since 1996, these proposed actions are unlikely to be implemented.
A Moscow court has extended the detention of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich until June 30. Arrested in March 2023 while reporting on Wagner Group and Russian public opinion on Ukraine, he faces espionage charges, which could lead to 20 years in prison. The U.S. government and the WSJ deny the charges, insisting on Gershkovich’s role as a journalist and demanding his release. No evidence has been provided by Russia. In a related case, dual-citizen journalist Alsu Kurmasheva is also detained in Russia under foreign agent charges.
An attack in Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, allegedly by Ukraine, resulted in at least three injuries according to the regional governor. The specific location, Golovchino, is close to the Ukraine border. The total number of casualties may be five, factoring in earlier reports by the same governor. These claims have not been confirmed independently, and Ukraine typically does not acknowledge operations on Russian territory. The incident follows reports of anti-Kremlin militia activities in the region. Russian officials have frequently reported such attacks in recent months.
A Moscow court charged Vasyl Maliuk, the head of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), with “terrorism” for his alleged involvement in attacks against Russian infrastructure, including the Black Sea Fleet, the Crimean Bridge, and oil refineries. The charges, reported by Meduza, stem from Maliuk’s recent comments hinting at the SBU’s role in these incidents. Maliuk has been added to federal and interstate wanted lists. In a TV interview, Maliuk warned of further strikes against Russia and suggested future actions against the Crimean Bridge once it is repaired, indicating ongoing plans for operations against Russian assets.
The Russian FSB reported thwarting a “terrorist attack” in Samara Oblast, attributing it to a member of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), an anti-Kremlin group. This individual, a Russian citizen allegedly linked to Ukrainian special services, died when a bomb he was preparing exploded prematurely.
Russia’s Allies
Russia is reportedly violating U.N. sanctions by trading oil with North Korea in exchange for weapons, including ballistic missiles and artillery shells. Satellite imagery and analysis suggest North Korean tankers have been operating with disabled tracking devices between Russia’s Vostochny Port and North Korea since March 7. This trade undermines the sanctions regime established by the U.N. Security Council in 2017. Russia has allegedly used North Korean missiles in at least 10 strikes against Ukraine, marking a significant breach of international sanctions.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian military is actively recruiting for the reestablished Leningrad Military District, with the 44th Army Corps starting recruitment efforts in Luga, Leningrad Oblast. The UK Ministry of Defense notes Russia’s pattern of deploying new units to Ukraine, impacting broader military preparedness. Despite efforts to form reserves for operations in Ukraine, it’s unlikely these forces will constitute effective large-scale combat formations in 2024, aligning with ongoing assessments of Russian military capabilities.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Belarusian President Lukashenko contradicted Russian claims about the Crocus City Hall attack, stating the attackers initially fled towards Belarus, not Ukraine, due to Belarusian security measures, not Ukrainian assistance as Russia suggested. This undermines the Kremlin’s narrative that Ukraine was involved. Lukashenko’s comments highlight cooperation between Belarusian and Russian forces leading to the attackers’ capture and aim to preempt speculation about Belarus’s potential refuge for the attackers, distancing his regime from implications of complicity.
The Kremlin shows inconsistency in its stance on the Crocus City Hall attack, with Putin initially blaming Ukraine then later avoiding direct accusations. Despite the Islamic State’s claim of responsibility, Putin and other Russian officials have struggled to present a unified narrative, flipping between implicating Ukraine and focusing on other matters. Meanwhile, some Russian officials continue to assert Ukraine’s involvement without substantial evidence, contradicting earlier statements and revealing a lack of critical information about the attack. This inconsistency reflects the Kremlin’s challenge in aligning its rhetoric with the reality of its intelligence and enforcement failures, highlighting internal confusion and the impact of the event on Russian elite.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com