Summary of the day: In the ongoing conflict, Ukraine has been effectively hindering Russian forces from securing significant tactical advantages across the frontline. However, the delay in U.S. security assistance presents a risk of enabling Russian operational success, potentially in significant and unpredictable ways. One critical concern is the erosion of Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, offering Russia a key opportunity for impactful operations. Additionally, Russia’s ability to execute limited offensive maneuvers near Ukraine’s border with Russia could further strain Ukrainian resources, though Western aid and Ukrainian strategies to mitigate manpower issues could counteract these efforts. Meanwhile, President Putin’s recent public statements, consistent with Russia’s reflexive control tactics, aim to discourage Western military support for Ukraine and distract from Russia’s military activities near NATO territories. Despite these verbal maneuvers and ongoing domestic narratives, such as falsely attributing the Crocus City Hall attack to Ukraine to stir nationalistic fervor and distract from internal issues, Russian advances have been confirmed near Donetsk City. This military activity is paralleled by efforts to procure additional ballistic missiles from North Korea, signifying a persistent escalation in the conflict’s intensity.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War III
Russian officials are blaming Armenia’s leaders for the deteriorating relations between the two nations as Armenia seeks to lessen its security dependence on Russia, especially after losing Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Armenia of creating false reasons and misrepresenting recent history to justify this shift. He criticized Armenian officials for allegedly disparaging Russian military forces in Armenia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Lavrov also insinuated that the European Union’s presence in Armenia is effectively a NATO mission. These statements indicate that Russia may respond more sternly to Armenia’s moves towards the West.
Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ABW) is probing a Russian propaganda network tied to Russian intelligence, following Czechia’s uncovering of a similar pro-Kremlin network spreading anti-Ukraine and anti-EU disinformation. The ABW disclosed that the network aimed to discredit Poland, Ukraine, and EU institutions, coordinating closely with international partners. In raids across Warsaw and Tychy, ABW seized cash, electronics, and data. This operation is linked to a previous probe into a Polish citizen suspected of spying for Russian intelligence. Further actions are underway following interrogations. This follows arrests in November 2023 related to a Russian spy network in Poland, which targeted military aid routes to Ukraine and identified critical infrastructure.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on March 28 that Russian forces suffered 780 casualties in the past day.
Ukraine is blocking significant Russian advances along the frontline despite the risk that delays in US aid could lead to greater Russian success. Ukrainian President Zelensky mentioned that while Ukrainian forces have managed to hold off Russian advances, they might not be ready for a major Russian offensive expected in mid-2024. Despite challenging conditions, Russian forces are continuing their offensives, exploiting Ukrainian equipment shortages and aiming to deplete Ukrainian resources before Western aid arrives. Since October 2023, Russia has gained 505 square kilometers of territory, with a slight increase in gains early in 2024, attributed to Ukrainian material shortages and weather conditions. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that timely and sufficient Western aid, along with addressing manpower issues, could prevent Russian operational successes and prepare Ukraine for future counteroffensive operations.
Ukraine faces significant challenges due to the weakening of its air defense systems, making it vulnerable to Russian missile and drone strikes. Between March 18 and 24, Russia launched a heavy barrage, including 190 missiles, 140 drones, and 700 glide bombs, pressuring Ukraine to prioritize defending its cities and critical infrastructure over frontline positions. The use of glide bombs gives Russia a tactical advantage, necessitating Ukraine to have sufficient air defense capabilities to counter Russian aircraft. The increase in Russian glide bomb strikes and the critical shortage of air defense missiles pose a threat to Ukraine’s ability to protect its rear areas and maintain frontline defense. The US security assistance, including additional Patriot air defense systems as mentioned by President Zelensky, could bolster Ukraine’s defenses, enabling it to better protect its population and military assets, and potentially forcing Russian forces to retreat.
Russia has the capability for limited offensives along the Ukraine border, potentially stretching Ukrainian defenses. Despite threats, there’s no observed buildup for a significant attack near Sumy, suggesting Russia might focus on current frontlines rather than opening new ones. However, any Russian movement could force Ukraine to reallocate scarce resources, creating vulnerabilities. Timely US military aid and addressing manpower needs are crucial for Ukraine to manage these challenges. Ukrainian efforts to optimize military structure, including rotations for frontline units, are part of addressing manpower issues. The outcome of the conflict heavily depends on continued Western support and Ukraine’s ability to handle its manpower constraints, with decisions in Washington, Kyiv, and other capitals playing a pivotal role.
Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation refuted reports of Russia planning a new offensive against Kharkiv, stating Russia lacks the resources for such an operation. The statement follows claims by Meduza, citing Kremlin sources, suggesting Putin may target Kharkiv to conclude the war. However, Ukrainian officials dismiss this as fear propaganda, noting ongoing attacks in Kharkiv. The city faces frequent assaults, including recent airstrikes and power grid destruction, making it unsafe for residents to return. Despite challenges, Ukraine remains vigilant against Russian aggression in the region.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
There were ongoing positional skirmishes along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Conflicts took place northeast of Kupyansk, west of Kreminna near Terny, and in the areas south of Kreminna, including the Serebryanske forest and near Bilohorivka.
Battles around Bakhmut occurred without any clear territorial gains. Clashes were reported to the northwest, west, and southwest of the city, involving extensive use of Russian glide bombs. Ukrainian forces face a numerical disadvantage, with reports of Russian troops outnumbering Ukrainians significantly in the Bakhmut area. Russian attacks have been characterized by the use of small units supported by drones, artillery, and air power, including motorcycles and buggies for mobility. The Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged the involvement of Russian forces active near Spirne. The situation for Ukrainian defenders remains challenging due to these tactics and their own manpower shortages.
Russian forces are reported to have made progress toward the Avdiivka-Novobakhmutivka highway near Semenivka, although there is no confirmation from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukrainian officials state that Russian troops are attempting to advance in that area, have the ability to rotate and reinforce their units, and are now employing armored vehicles, including tanks. However, these forces have faced losses near Orlivka. Fighting continues around Avdiivka, with Russian forces involved in the vicinity of Berdychi.
Russian troops have made some advancements in and around Novomykhailivka, southwest of Donetsk City, with recent footage showing movement in the central part and fields north of the area. Despite these gains, Ukrainian forces are actively defending the location, utilizing drones and cluster munitions that hinder Russian progress. The conflict persists to the west and southwest of Donetsk City.
Russian forces attacked near Staromayorske, located south of Velyka Novosilka on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border without making any territorial gains. Russian forces have been conducting airstrikes in this area.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, there were ongoing positional battles near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove without any shifts in the frontline. Russian military units are active in the Zaporizhia and Polohy areas.
Skirmishes persisted in east Kherson Oblast, notably around Krynky. According to Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Russian forces, in small groups of 10 to 15 without armored vehicles, are sustaining daily losses of 30 to 40 personnel in these assaults.
A Russian milblogger reported that Russian forces eliminated a Ukrainian naval drone near the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, a claim not verified by visual evidence. Additionally, Russian sources stated that Russian troops accidentally shot down one of their own aircraft, either a Su-27 or Su-35, near Sevastopol, Crimea, with the pilot safely ejecting and being rescued. Ukrainian officials have not commented on the incident.
The Atesh guerrilla movement reports ongoing Russian military build-up in Crimea, with preparations to counter Ukrainian sabotage-reconnaissance groups, especially in Sevastopol. Following Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia is enhancing air defense in Sevastopol and has deployed additional military equipment in Gvardiyske. Atesh suggests some equipment displays might be decoys to falsely accuse Ukraine of targeting civilians. Damage to the Russian ship Yamal has been confirmed, and only one Karakurt-class corvette, the Zyklon, remains fully operational in the Black Sea Fleet after others suffered damage. Atesh warns of Russian efforts to discredit pro-Ukrainian movements by framing them for terrorist acts, urging Crimeans to report Russian troop movements to aid Ukrainian defense efforts.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left nearly 1,800 Ukrainian children orphaned, with almost 600 killed and over 1,200 injured, according to UN data. Over 10,000 civilians have died since the invasion began, and thousands of children have been abducted. The conflict has damaged or destroyed one in seven schools, affecting 1.6 million schoolchildren. Many children now study remotely due to safety concerns. UNICEF estimates that around 1.5 million Ukrainian children are at risk of mental health issues due to the war.
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 5 people and injuries to at least 12 others:
- Russian forces attacked Novooleksandrivka in Donetsk Oblast’s Pokrovsk district, injuring a 49-year-old man in his garden.
- Russian troops attacked Drobysheve and Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast, and Kherson, causing civilian casualties. In Mykolaivka, one woman was killed, and multiple buildings were damaged. At least one person was injured in Drobysheve. Civilians were urged to evacuate because Russian forces are deliberately targeting civilians.
- Kherson came under Russian attack. A taxi was struck, resulting in the death of the driver, while a 36-year-old man and a 39-year-old woman were injured and hospitalized.
- Russian forces attacked Monachynivka village near Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, killing a 57-year-old woman and injuring her husband. The woman succumbed to her injuries on the way to the hospital, while her husband is receiving medical assistance.
- Russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast’s village of Raihorodok near Kramatorsk killed one civilian, as reported by regional governor Vadym Filashkin on Facebook. Additionally, two individuals were wounded in the town of Ukrainsk, approximately 30 kilometers west of Russian-occupied Donetsk. In total, Russian forces launched 14 attacks, resulting in damage to approximately 80 houses, over 30 apartment buildings, administrative structures, and power lines.
- Explosions from mines in Kherson Oblast resulted in one fatality and another individual sustaining severe injuries. The incident occurred in the village of Chervony Mayak, with one man dying on-site and the other, aged 38, suffering critical injuries including the amputation of both legs. He is currently hospitalized in critical condition.
- Debris from intercepted drones sparked fires in a residential area of Zaporizhzhia city, injuring two women aged 74 and 72. The women sustained minor injuries and received treatment at the scene.
- An overnight drone attack damaged residential buildings and civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv city, with no reported casualties.
- Artillery and drone attacks by Russia wounded two individuals in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast’s Nikopol district.
The aftermath of the Russian attack on the northern part of Donetsk Oblast
A building destroyed by a Russian strike on Donetsk Oblast
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone attacks on Ukraine overnight, using cruise missiles from the Black Sea and drones from Kursk and Crimea. Ukrainian forces shot down 26 drones in several regions and reported that the missiles were neutralized over the Black Sea. Civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv City was damaged by drone strikes.
Security measures in Kyiv will be heightened following recent Russian missile strikes and increased threat of saboteur infiltration, announced Serhii Popko, head of Kyiv City Military Administration. The decision, made at an emergency Kyiv Defense Council meeting, was influenced by Russia’s rapid-strike capabilities, including the use of the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile. The Security Service of Ukraine detained two Ukrainians accused of aiding Russian missile strike plans, although it’s unclear if this relates to Popko’s announcement. Specific measures weren’t detailed but may affect public events and involve monitoring social media for destabilizing content. Popko urged calmness and adherence to safety protocols while reassuring residents of Kyiv’s protection.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal visited Warsaw, holding talks with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to address agricultural trade issues. Both nations aim to implement control agreements at border checkpoints and ensure fair trade practices while preventing unfair competition. Efforts also focus on facilitating grain shipments via EU “Solidarity Lanes.” Shmyhal outlined Ukraine’s five-step plan, including EU-recommended restrictions and embargoes on Russian and Belarusian imports. Meanwhile, Poland pledged an intergovernmental conference with Ukraine and the EU by June 2024. The discussions also covered arms supplies, infrastructure, energy, and EU integration, emphasizing mutual support for Ukraine’s NATO and EU integration efforts.
Polish protesters paused the blockade at the Uhryniv-Dolhobychuv crossing on the Polish-Ukrainian border, allowing truck traffic to resume temporarily. The blockade, initiated by Polish farmers protesting Ukrainian agricultural imports, caused truck queues. The pause is expected to last until April 2.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited New Delhi, invited by Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. They discussed Ukraine’s peace formula, aiming to end the Russia-Ukraine war. India maintains neutrality but faces pressure due to close ties with Moscow amid Western sanctions. Ukraine seeks Indian support for the peace plan and economic partnerships. Kuleba highlighted the importance of reinvigorating Ukrainian-Indian cooperation during his first-ever visit to India.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Zelensky urges allies for more support ahead of an anticipated major Russian offensive, possibly in May or June. Ukrainian military officials warn of a potential attack with a force of 100,000 troops. Zelensky highlights stabilization on the battlefield but emphasizes the need for additional arms, particularly Patriot air defense systems and artillery. He warns of Russia’s ambitions beyond Ukraine, potentially targeting other European countries.
President Volodymyr Zelensky met with the European Parliament’s Renew Europe group and the French National Assembly delegation on March 28. With Renew Europe, they discussed expediting military aid to Ukraine and further EU integration. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine’s commitment to European integration and addressed Russian propaganda in Europe. With the French delegation, including its president, Yael Braun-Pivet, they discussed endorsing a security cooperation agreement signed on Feb. 16. Zelensky thanked France for its support and discussed defense cooperation and Macron’s proposals to enhance Ukraine’s defense against Russia. Macron’s visit to Kyiv was anticipated without a confirmed date.
President Zelensky spoke with U.S. House Speaker Johnson, urging swift aid approval. Aid has been stalled in Congress since fall 2023. Zelensky highlighted increased Russian strikes on civilians, emphasizing the critical need for aid approval. With ammunition shortages looming, discussions included utilizing frozen Russian assets to fund aid. Treasury Secretary Yellen cautioned that asset use cannot replace aid stuck in Congress.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson may introduce a Ukraine aid bill after Easter, navigating internal party dynamics. Aid has been delayed since fall 2023 due to disagreements on border security. The Senate passed a $95 billion aid package in February, but Johnson hasn’t brought it to a vote in the House. He’s considering splitting funding for Ukraine and Israel into separate votes. President Biden and Senate Majority Leader Schumer have urged Congress to pass the aid package.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will discuss Ukraine and other critical issues with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Amid concerns over Macron’s openness to deploying French troops to Ukraine, France has significantly supported Kyiv, providing SCALP cruise missiles and promising additional Caesar howitzers. Recent strikes using French and British missile have notably damaged Russian naval assets.
Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna expressed optimism that Hungary will support a complete ban on Russian grain imports into the EU. The European Commission proposed tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grain imports to protect the EU market. The proposal awaits EU Council consideration and is expected to be implemented promptly. While some EU members advocate for a complete import ban, Stefanishyna believes it requires further EU discussion. She anticipates Hungary’s approval in the fall, citing positive dialogue and agreements between Ukraine and Hungary. Russian grain imports to the EU reached a record high in 2023, comprising 1% of total EU consumption.
Evolve Dynamics, a British company, is creating drones for the Ukrainian military to counter electronic warfare, Reuters reported. These drones can withstand signal jamming, a tactic used by adversaries to disrupt their operation. Evolve Dynamics provides the Ukrainian military with drones equipped with technology to resist jamming, enabling them to adapt and make changes independently.
Czech-led initiative secures contracts for 1 million artillery shells for Ukraine, as reported by Corriere della Sera. Shipments may begin in April, with an estimated cost of 1.8 billion euros ($1.9 billion). Several countries, including Belgium, Germany, and Canada, support the initiative. Czech officials suggest potential supply of up to 1.5 million shells. Ukraine faces ammunition shortages, impacting its defense efforts.
Sweden is considering supplying its Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, Defense Minister Pal Jonson stated. Sweden’s recent NATO membership potentially opens this option. Discussions are ongoing within the fighter jet coalition. European support for Ukraine must increase due to dwindling U.S. aid. Sweden is investing in ammunition production and supporting initiatives to provide Ukraine with artillery shells. The country is cooperating with the Czech-led initiative to procure shells and assisting with armored vehicles. Sweden affirms Ukraine’s right to self-defense amid the Russian invasion, refuting claims of U.S. pressure to halt attacks on Russian oil refineries.
Germany delivered a new defense aid package to Ukraine, including armored vehicles, ammunition, drones, and other supplies. The shipment comprises various vehicles, artillery shells, anti-tank weapons, reconnaissance drones, mine-clearing tanks, and more. Germany has pledged additional support, including Patriot missiles and infantry fighting vehicles. This aid follows a 500-million-euro ($540 million) commitment announced by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius earlier in March. Germany ranks second, behind the U.S., as a major military donor to Ukraine, with a total assistance value of approximately 17.7 billion euros (around $19 billion) as of January.
The NATO-Ukraine Council held an emergency meeting on March 28, called by Kyiv following Russia’s missile strikes on vital infrastructure. The attacks, including on power plants, led to a blackout in Kharkiv and severe damage to Zaporizhia’s hydroelectric plant. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov briefed NATO allies on the situation and requested additional air defense systems and missiles to bolster Ukraine’s defenses.
The U.S. and South Korea jointly imposed sanctions on six individuals and two entities involved in funding North Korea’s weapons program. Among those named are two North Korean nationals based in Russia. There are concerns about Russia’s role as North Korea’s main weapons supplier, including providing missiles and artillery shells. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned of Russia aiding North Korea’s military upgrades, potentially involving ballistic missiles and nuclear tech. The sanctions target actors aiding North Korea’s weapons programs, including individuals in Russia and China involved in money laundering and illegal financing.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is expanding its arms industry with a $1.4 billion budget for weapon development and procurement, contrasting Russia’s $349 billion defense budget for 2024, signaling a long-term conflict expectation. Ukraine’s defense spending is 22% of its GDP, about $40 billion, while Russia dedicates one-third of its budget to defense, emphasizing victory in the conflict. The Pentagon notes Russia’s losses include up to $211 billion from military operations and nearly $10 billion from disrupted arms sales.
Ukrainian forces have developed low-cost night vision for drones, enhancing their nighttime operations against Russian targets at a fraction of conventional costs. A video shared by the Wild Hornets foundation demonstrates these drones targeting Russian military assets, showcasing their effectiveness and the challenges for Russian forces in countering them. Meanwhile, Russia has escalated its night attacks, using advanced FPV drones with night vision and thermal cameras, targeting Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructures. Both sides recognize the strategic advantage of nighttime drone operations, with Ukraine innovating to offset Russian technological advantages.
Life In Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Over 10,000 households in Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast lack electricity for weeks due to ongoing fighting. Front-line areas face daily Russian attacks, causing casualties and infrastructure damage. Energy workers’ departure exacerbates the situation, particularly in Horlivka and Donetsk.
Russia News
A new suspect has been arrested by Russia’s Investigative Committee in connection with the March 22 terrorist attack in Moscow.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief, Kyrylo Budanov, revealed that Russian special services knew of the March 22 terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall in Moscow since February 15, with intelligence from Syria. Despite this foreknowledge and details on the attackers’ entry routes into Russia, preventative actions weren’t taken. Budanov suggests motives could include internal power struggles or underestimating the attack’s scale. He also criticized Russian claims of Ukrainian involvement as unfounded, emphasizing Ukraine’s condemnation of terrorism. The attack by gunmen, claimed by Islamic State, killed 143, with Russian authorities arresting suspects from Tajikistan but blaming Ukraine and the West without evidence. Reports suggest Putin may use the incident to bolster war support, despite skepticism within his circle regarding Ukraine’s involvement.
After the Crocus City Hall attack, Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised concerns about ethnic tensions in Russia, highlighting incidents of ultranationalism and discouraging inflammatory rhetoric against ethnic minorities. His comments may also serve to shift blame for domestic issues onto Ukraine and the West, while maintaining public support for the war in Ukraine. Despite this, the government is unlikely to limit migrants, who are essential for Russia’s labor needs and military recruitment. The focus on external culprits by Putin contrasts with ultranationalists’ internal blame, underscoring the incident as a significant failure of Russian intelligence and law enforcement.
A Russian military blogger advocated for the destruction of Kyiv and Kharkiv on Russian TV, receiving support for using cluster munitions against Ukrainian civilians. Kharkiv recently experienced a major blackout due to a Russian attack on its power station. The International Criminal Court seeks Vladimir Putin for war crimes, including the kidnapping of Ukrainian children. Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians have led to nearly 10,000 civilian deaths since February 2022, with actual numbers likely higher.
Armenia’s trade with Russia has surged since 2022, raising suspicions of sanctions evasion, Euroactiv reported. Despite strained relations, Armenian exports to Russia tripled in 2022 and nearly doubled in 2023, constituting over 35% of Armenia’s foreign trade. This dependency complicates Armenia’s ability to impose sanctions on Russia. The rise in exports involves re-exporting products from third countries, potentially risking Armenia’s trade if seen as sanctions circumvention.
Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, foreign companies leaving Russia have incurred over $107 billion in losses, according to Reuters. Russia imposed stricter exit requirements, including hefty taxes and discounted sales, resulting in at least $385 million for the Kremlin in 2024 alone. Seized assets and other penalties further contribute to the losses. This action is seen as retaliation for the West freezing $300 billion of Russia’s central bank assets. Efforts to redirect these funds to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction are underway, with the EU considering using profits from frozen assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine. Russia claims potential Western losses from these actions could reach $288 billion.
Russia’s Allies
Russia is reportedly acquiring ballistic missiles and weapons from North Korea for the conflict in Ukraine. Two Russian aircraft, including a cargo plane suspected of transporting North Korean missiles to Russia, flew between the two countries recently. Intelligence sources suggest the cargo included short-range ballistic missiles. Additionally, a Russian government delegation has made multiple trips between Vladivostok and Pyongyang within a month.
Russia vetoed the renewal of the U.N. expert panel monitoring sanctions against North Korea. This action drew criticism from the U.S., South Korea, and Ukraine, accusing Russia of aiding North Korea’s arms trade for its war in Ukraine. The veto disrupts efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Russia claims the sanctions haven’t stabilized the Korean peninsula and calls for a review. North Korea has reportedly supplied Russia with weapons, including missiles. Ukraine alleges Russian attacks using North Korean missiles around 50 times.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials are monitoring “potentially dangerous” ex-convicts who served in Ukraine upon their return. They’ve been advised against labeling these individuals as heroes or letting them teach in schools without further assessment. Russia has recruited many from penal colonies for six-month military stints.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a military training center in Tver Oblast, where he reviewed flight equipment and weapons, including missiles for Mi-28NM helicopters. He also met with pilots and the widows of soldiers who died in Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu awarded a Gold Star medal to Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev, commander of the Central Grouping of Forces, praised for capturing Avdiivka.
Russia’s 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic missile, claimed to exceed Mach 5 speed, faced doubts about its performance after being intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses in Kyiv. Despite previous successful tests indicating high accuracy and a robust warhead, technical analysis of downed missiles suggested they did not achieve hypersonic speed nor carried the claimed destructive payload. Launched from both sea and ground platforms, the Tsirkon’s actual speed and warhead size during recent attacks have led to questions about its hypersonic status and effectiveness. Additionally, the arrest of a Russian scientist involved in hypervelocity research for treason raises further concerns about the missile program’s challenges. Despite Russia’s claims, the effectiveness of its hypersonic weapons against modern air defense systems remains under scrutiny.
Russia plans to deliver two “Borey-AM” nuclear missile submarines to its Northern and Pacific Fleets in 2024, aiming for each fleet to have six such submarines by 2030. The construction was contracted in 2021.
Russia plans to enhance its Onyx missiles with new guidance systems for improved accuracy against Ukrainian targets and to shield them from Ukrainian electronic warfare. The Onyx, a supersonic cruise missile developed for naval targets, has been adapted for ground attacks in Ukraine and Syria. With a range of up to 800 kilometers and a speed of Mach 2.5, it carries a significant explosive payload. Recent uses include strikes near Odesa and against infrastructure in the Odesa region. This upgrade builds on the BrahMos project, a joint venture with India, emphasizing the missile’s evolving role from maritime to broader military applications.
Russian military bloggers report the development of the “Cheburashka” system, enabling Russian troops to intercept drone visuals. This technology helps locate and target drones by momentarily activating electronic warfare (EW) systems, reducing constant EW activity that can disrupt Russian drone operations.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
In his ongoing effort to influence Western policy, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to deny any aggressive plans towards NATO and deflect blame for the conflict in Donbas onto the West. He dismisses the idea of attacking neighboring countries, claiming Russia is safeguarding its historical lands in Ukraine. These claims contradict his “Russian World” ideology, which could imply territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine. To dissuade NATO from supporting Ukraine with military aid like F-16 jets, Putin threatens to target these aircraft and potentially the Western airfields supporting them. By also engaging in debates on US defense spending, he aims to appear more efficient militarily despite the heavy toll on Russia’s economy. Overall, Putin employs a tactic known as “reflexive control,” using a combination of half-truths and misleading narratives to confuse and manipulate Western decision-making, attempting to delay military support for Ukraine and control the narrative surrounding the conflict.
The Russian Investigative Committee has alleged that Ukraine funded the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack, an assertion aimed at boosting domestic backing for the war in Ukraine. According to the Committee, the attackers received money and cryptocurrency from Ukraine. This claim fits into a broader strategy of portraying Ukraine and the West as culprits to garner Russian public support. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) maintains that the Islamic State was behind the attack and has seen no credible evidence implicating others. The Kremlin is expected to persist with such information campaigns.
Ukrainian intelligence warns that Russia is using its embassies for “Perun” and “Maidan-3” information campaigns in neutral countries. “Perun” aims to undermine Ukrainian and Western political stability and misrepresent life in occupied Ukraine, while “Maidan-3” seeks to create panic and divide Ukrainian society and leadership. These efforts have seen some success in affecting international support for Ukraine.
An investigation by US cybersecurity firm Mandiant revealed that despite the Russian government’s closure of associated media entities following his death, information campaigns linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late financier of the Wagner Group, are still operational. These campaigns are active in the US, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and Africa. Mandiant hasn’t identified who now manages these operations. Reports suggest that Sergei Kiriyenko, a high-ranking Russian official, might be overseeing various information campaigns aimed at domestic and international audiences.
Belgian PM Alexander de Croo revealed that a Russian propaganda network, tied to Czech intel, paid European lawmakers, including MEPs, to spread pro-Kremlin disinformation. This follows sanctions on pro-Kremlin figures Medvedchuk and Marchevskyi. Polish authorities are investigating, linked to prior probes into Russian influence. De Croo condemned such actions, warning of threats to democracy. Two Belgian MPs affiliated with Vlaams Belang were reported to have cooperated with the network. The European Parliament is looking into the matter. Additionally, Latvia’s VDD is investigating Tatjana Zdanoka, an MEP accused of spying for Russia, based on previous allegations of her ties to Moscow, including her involvement in Crimea’s annexation and voting against condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com