Summary of the day: Today’s developments highlight escalating challenges in Ukraine, with President Zelensky noting that delays in US security assistance have weakened Ukraine’s defensive posture, allowing Russia to maintain the offensive initiative. A significant Russian missile attack on Kharkiv Oblast’s thermal power infrastructure further strains Ukraine’s energy grid, attributed partly to weakened air defenses due to the same delays in support. On the frontlines, Russian forces are adapting technologically and tactically, employing unmanned ground vehicles in Donetsk Oblast, and forming mobile fire groups to counter Ukrainian drone threats. However, these adaptations face implementation challenges. Meanwhile, Russia intensifies legal actions against migrants following the Crocus City Hall attack, leading to increased deportations and voluntary departures. Amidst these strategic moves, positional battles persist, with Russian mobilized forces experiencing significant casualties.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War III
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has issued a warning that Europe is facing a critical situation unseen since 1945, highlighting the need for increased defense investment due to the ongoing threat from Russia and uncertain U.S. support. Tusk emphasized that “literally any scenario is possible,” indicating a ‘pre-war’ era.
Russian entities are exerting influence on Armenian leaders as tensions between Armenia and Russia escalate. Andrei Bystritsky of the Valdai Club argued that Armenia cannot pivot from its historical ties with Russia to Western alliances due to geographical constraints. He suggested that while short-term dialogues between Armenia and Russia might be strained, they could lead to a “political recovery” over time. This stance is part of broader Russian criticisms aimed at Armenia’s attempts to distance itself from Moscow, indicating a strategic push to maintain the traditional Armenian-Russian relationship.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
In his discussions on the ramifications of delayed U.S. military aid, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the critical importance of American support across several military domains, including air defense, electronic warfare, and artillery, which are vital for Ukraine’s capability to maintain its current defensive positions and to plan and execute counteroffensive operations. Zelensky stressed the urgency of receiving aid to avoid being pushed into further retreats and losing more territory in efforts to hold a stable frontline. He pointed out Ukraine’s current tactical moves, like targeting Russian oil refineries, to counteract Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, a strategy crucial in the face of material scarcities. The President also highlighted the significance of long-range missile systems, such as ATACMS, for their potential to target airfields in Crimea from where Russian assaults are launched, thereby enhancing Ukraine’s strategic defensive posture. Moreover, Zelensky brought attention to the dire consequences of political impediments in Washington on Ukraine’s defense strategy, asserting that the nation’s fight is not a matter for partisan debate and warning that if Ukraine falls, it could give President Putin the opportunity to alter international boundaries, changing the global geopolitical landscape.
Russian forces are increasingly deploying unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) in Donetsk Oblast, showcasing advanced technological and tactical capabilities. Recent footage highlights these UGVs, equipped with grenade launchers, being used in combat operations near Avdiivka and Bakhmut. Additionally, these drones are performing various roles, including surveillance, logistics, and light combat tasks. Experts suggest that the use of such technologies on the battlefield provides valuable insights for the US and NATO into the evolving nature of modern warfare and future combat strategies.
Russian forces are advancing their unmanned system capabilities on the battlefield, introducing innovations like the “Joker-10” FPV drone, which features a unique hibernation mode that eludes Ukrainian electronic warfare detection by remaining in low power status. These drones can stay undetected for extended periods, awaiting remote activation. Additionally, Russia is exploring different drone technologies, including a drone capable of capturing enemy drones with a net and another designed for midair collisions to neutralize opposing drones. Footage also shows a new unmanned tracked vehicle tested for evacuating wounded personnel and delivering ammunition under fire, highlighting Russia’s focus on enhancing unmanned warfare and logistical support technologies.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Major Ilya Yevlash reported that Russian forces are now deploying upgraded FAB-250 bombs, transformed into glide bombs with the addition of universal joint glide munition systems, for attacks on Ukrainian frontlines. These modified bombs, featuring rocket-like engines, can be guided to their targets after being released by Russian fighter jets.
The Russian military has relocated most of its significant naval vessels from Crimean ports after Ukraine’s successful strikes on the Black Sea Fleet, leaving behind only the rocket carrier Cyclone. Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that these ships, including cruise missile carriers, have moved to Novorossiysk since last year’s attacks, which included a strike on the fleet’s Sevastopol headquarters. The Strategic Communications Center of Ukraine’s Armed Forces states that over a third of the Black Sea Fleet’s warships have been incapacitated. Meanwhile, amid heightened tensions and operational errors, Russian forces mistakenly downed their own Su-27 jet over Crimea.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ongoing positional battles were reported along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, specifically northeast of Kupyansk, west of Kreminna, and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka. A Ukrainian military spokesperson noted that while Russian forces have recently slowed their offensive in the Kupyansk area, they continue to focus on offensive operations towards Lyman, aiming to reach Luhansk Oblast’s borders and the east bank of the Oskil River in Kupyansk. This strategy involves replenishing and rotating units that had been degraded in earlier offensives, indicating a strategic adjustment post-Russian presidential election.
Russian forces are reported to have intensified their offensive efforts northeast of Bakhmut, in the Siversk direction, claiming to have made territorial gains. According to Russian military bloggers, advancements of nearly one kilometer in depth and the capture of seven square kilometers of territory southeast of Rozdolivka were achieved. Russian forces are said to have pushed Ukrainian forces from various positions around Vesele and Vyimka, and advanced towards Rozdolivka’s southern flank. Additionally, Russian forces continued operations near Spirne. These gains, however, remain unconfirmed.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that its forces have captured Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut, though independent verification is lacking. Fighting continues in areas surrounding Bakhmut, including Bohdanivka, Chasiv Yar, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Niu York. Ukrainian forces face challenges striking Russian artillery, which has been strategically placed away from the frontline and protected by decoy traps against drone strikes in the Horlivka area. Russian defensive measures near Ivanivske are also reported, highlighting ongoing tactical adjustments and the contested nature of the conflict in these regions.
Russian forces are reported to have made advances around Avdiivka, with specific progress noted northwest and southwest of the city. According to Russian military bloggers, troops advanced in Semenivka to the northwest and made significant gains in Pervomaiske to the southwest, although these claims have not been independently verified. Continued positional battles are occurring in several areas around Avdiivka.
Ongoing positional battles occurred west and southwest of Donetsk City, with no significant changes to frontline positions reported. The areas near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, and Vodyane witnessed continued engagements. Russian military actions included the striking of a railway bridge in Kurakhove and reported flooding caused by strikes near Paraskoviivka, affecting local infrastructure.
There were ongoing positional battles near the border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts, specifically around Staromayorske and Pryyutne, south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka, respectively. No territorial advances were reported by either side in these engagements.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, ongoing positional battles were reported near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove without any changes in frontlines. Russian forces executed six air strikes with 15 glide bombs in the Orikhiv area.
The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces attempted multiple unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian defenses in the eastern part of Kherson Oblast, likely around Krynky.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 3 people and the injuries to 4 others:
- Russian attacks in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions of Ukraine resulted in one fatality and three injuries, according to Ukrainian officials. The attacks damaged a high-rise, private homes, a cell tower, and a warehouse in Kherson, while in the Kharkiv Oblast, an elderly man was wounded by shelling, and a young man was hurt by an exploding device in Pokotylivka.
- Two civilians were killed and one injured in Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Oblast, due to Russian artillery shelling. The attack also caused damage to residential structures. Among the casualties were a 73-year-old man and a 70-year-old woman. The man’s 50-year-old daughter was hospitalized with injuries. Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin highlighted Krasnohorivka’s high-risk status and advised residents to evacuate.
Consequences of the Russian strike on Kupiansk
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, including 12 Shahed drones from Crimea and four S-300/400 missiles aimed at Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepted nine drones and a cruise missile, mitigating damage. However, drone strikes in Poltava Oblast and missile hits in Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, caused infrastructure damage and affected residential areas. Additional missile strikes targeted Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts, with Ukrainian forces downing one missile aimed at Mykolaiv. Amidst these assaults, Ukraine faces power challenges, implementing hourly shutdowns in several oblasts to manage grid strain. The Prime Minister indicated energy system stabilization is expected post-heating season.
Russian missile strikes on March 22 devastated the Zmiivska Thermal Power Plant in Kharkiv Oblast, marking a significant attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This assault, part of a larger campaign against Ukrainian energy facilities, underscores the increasing vulnerability of Ukraine’s air defenses, partly due to delays in US security assistance. The destruction of this key power plant, alongside other targeted energy sites, signals Russia’s strategic effort to weaken Ukraine’s defense capacity and energy stability. Ukrainian energy companies report that such attacks are becoming more precise and damaging, raising concerns over the long-term ability of Ukraine’s energy grid to recover from these sustained assaults.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine continued restructuring his team by dismissing six officials, including his First Aide Serhiy Shefir and Commissioner for Soldiers’ Rights Alyona Verbytska, without stating specific reasons. Shefir, a close associate and business partner of Zelensky since before his presidency, survived an assassination attempt in 2021, with suspicions pointing towards various adversaries. Alongside these dismissals, Natalia Pushkaryova, and three advisors—Mykhailo Radutsky, Serhiy Trofimov, and Oleh Ustenko—were also removed from their positions. This reshuffle is part of a broader initiative announced by Zelensky in February to reset Ukraine’s leadership, which has also seen recent changes in deputy heads of the Presidential Office and the appointment of new personnel in key positions, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the Ukrainian government amidst the conflict with Russia. President Zelensky signaled further government reshuffles in his evening address.
Kyiv Oblast has strengthened its defenses by installing nearly 10,000 “dragon’s teeth” concrete pyramids and digging an anti-tank ditch, as part of a broader initiative to build 2,000 kilometers of fortifications across Ukraine. This development follows criticism last fall over the pace of fortification efforts, leading to better coordination and stringent construction oversight. Governor Ruslan Kravchenko emphasizes the importance of quality and efficiency in these measures. Amidst preparations for a potential Russian offensive, President Zelensky has noted that the battlefield situation has stabilized, yet the threat of a significant Russian attack remains, possibly towards late May or June.
Ukraine’s Allies
France is set to provide Ukraine with a military aid package that includes Aster 30 anti-aircraft missiles and hundreds of armored vehicles. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu confirmed the upcoming delivery, which aims to address Ukraine’s urgent air defense needs amidst heightened Russian attacks. The aid package, revealed following announcements by President Zelensky and President Macron, features the SAMP/T MAMBA system, comparable to the U.S. Patriot, and older yet functional armored personnel carriers to support Ukrainian troop mobility on the frontline. The French military will concurrently transition to next-generation Griffon vehicles. Efforts are also being made to expedite the production of the Aster missiles and to increase ammunition stocks, critical due to Ukraine’s recent ammunition shortages highlighted by the loss of Avdiivka. Additionally, the package includes 78 Caesar howitzers and more artillery shells.
Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur reported on March 29 that a Czech-led initiative aiming to procure vital artillery shells for Ukraine is facing a shortfall in funding.
The European Union has prohibited the Turkish airline Southwind from operating in its airspace because of its connections with Russia.
Russia News
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces disclosed that Russian forces incurred 730 casualties in the last day.
The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russian air defenses are failing to adequately counter Ukrainian drone strikes, even within areas supposedly well-protected. With increased Ukrainian drone activity targeting Russian oil facilities, Russia’s efforts to adjust by forming mobile fire groups may be insufficient, particularly over the expansive areas threatened by these drone attacks. This development suggests potential gaps in Russia’s air defense capabilities, as they may not be able to shield all vital locations using conventional systems. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky affirms that strikes on Russian refineries, considered legitimate military targets, will persist.
After the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack on March 22 in Moscow, resulting in 139 fatalities, Russian actions against migrants have escalated, especially in St. Petersburg, with significant raids, detentions, and deportations of those suspected of violating migration laws. Nearly 1,500 foreign citizens were inspected, administrative violations were issued, and criminal cases initiated, causing both deportations and migrants to voluntarily leave, due to the fear of repercussions and a surge in anti-migrant sentiment within Russia. Discussions on tightening migration policies and increasing penalties for legal infractions among migrants are ongoing. Despite these crackdowns, the Kremlin is wary of exacerbating ethnic tensions, trying to balance security needs with preserving labor forces, critical also for military mobilization. Meduza highlights the intensified crackdowns, particularly targeting Tajikistani migrants, following the Islamic State’s claim of the Moscow attack, which led to the arrest of four Tajik nationals. The crackdown is coupled with the recent prevention by the Russian Federal Security Service of another supposed terrorist act in Stavropol Krai, resulting in the detention of three more individuals from a Central Asian country.Top of Form
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The U.K. Defense Ministry estimates Russia is mobilizing about 30,000 people monthly, aligning with Ukraine’s military intelligence data which suggests daily recruitments of 1,000-1,100 individuals. Russia’s capacity to sustain losses enables ongoing attacks to exhaust Ukrainian forces. Post-election, Russia might increase its mobilization efforts. Russia’s artillery and equipment superiority contributes to its advantage in the conflict. Ukraine faces a critical shortage of shells and missiles, with a reported firing disparity of 7:1 against Ukraine. U.S. aid delays have influenced frontline dynamics, notably in Avdiivka, where Russian forces have reportedly captured two villages, though Ukraine has not confirmed this. The Ukrainian military has repelled multiple attacks in the Avdiivka sector, and while Russia continues offensives along the front, significant progress has been limited in recent weeks.
The Russian military is creating mobile fire groups aimed at countering Ukrainian drone strikes, equipping them with thermal imagers, electronic warfare systems, and machine guns on pickup trucks. However, it’s uncertain if these groups can be deployed widely enough to protect against the extensive drone threats across occupied Ukraine and Russia, where drones target critical infrastructure, including oil refineries. This initiative, resembling Ukraine’s tactics against Russian drone attacks, reflects Russia’s struggle to adequately defend its territory with conventional air defenses like the Pantsir-S1 systems. Challenges include bureaucratic hurdles and prioritization of defenses around major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, limiting coverage in broader regions. Russia’s effort to form these mobile units indicates a potential gap in its ability to shield all critical sites, especially in western Russia and occupied territories, from drone threats.
A group of fifteen Russian soldiers from the 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 98th Separate Infantry Regiment reported high casualties in Ukraine, stating only 15 of their company survived an attack near Semenivka, Donetsk Oblast. After their arrival in Avdiivka on March 13, command was shifted to the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade, where they faced accusations of desertion and threats of violence for refusing to carry out further assaults.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited defense industry facilities in Altai Krai, focusing on the production of aviation and air defense missiles, multiple launch rocket systems ammunition, grenade launcher rounds, and cartridge belts. An enterprise head reported a 3.5-fold increase in production since 2022, while Shoigu urged for even faster production rates. He highlighted that President Putin has provided funding to significantly enhance the defense industry’s production capabilities.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), closely aligned with the Kremlin, hosted a council in Moscow to endorse a document promoting a nationalist ideology supporting Russia’s actions in Ukraine and its expansionist aims. Headed by Patriarch Kirill, a former KGB officer and ally of President Putin, the council aimed to unify Russian nationalist narratives and suggest policy changes in Russia. This move appears to be an effort to shape public opinion and test the waters for new policies concerning the war in Ukraine and Russia’s geopolitical stance against the West. The ROC MP has framed Russia’s military actions in Ukraine as a “holy war,” intensifying the Kremlin’s rhetoric and potentially broadening support among Russians. The document claims this war defends Russian identity and aims to achieve dominance over Ukraine, challenging Western globalism and alleged moral decline. It suggests codifying the idea of a “Russian World” that includes ethnic Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians, aiming to reinforce Russia’s influence and territorial claims. Furthermore, the ROC MP emphasizes traditional family values and a new migration policy to address Russia’s demographic challenges, proposing measures to increase the population and integrate migrants aligned with Russian values while restricting others. These recommendations reflect the Kremlin’s conflicting needs for both nationalist support and migrant labor. Overall, the ROC MP’s document merges various Kremlin narratives into a cohesive ideology advocating for Russia’s national unity, demographic growth, and territorial expansion. This strategy promises Russians a stronger national identity and global influence in exchange for supporting the Kremlin’s policies and military efforts.
Mufti Ainur Birgalin, head of the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Bashkortostan, has been actively supporting Kremlin narratives by describing the conflict in Ukraine as a “holy” war against the West in his sermons. His rhetoric labels the US, NATO, and Ukrainian authorities as adversaries of Russia and religion, aligning with Kremlin positions. Reports suggest Birgalin, who has ties to the FSB, aims to reach audiences beyond the reach of traditional Kremlin propaganda. His portrayal of the war as a “jihad” mirrors the Russian Orthodox Church’s depiction of the conflict as a “holy war.”
Major General Vadym Skibitskyi of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate highlighted Russia’s ongoing information warfare aimed at undermining Ukraine and diminishing Western support. He outlined three primary strategies: targeting Ukrainian society with propaganda, spreading misinformation in Western countries to erode support for Ukraine, and controlling the narrative within occupied Ukrainian territories. The GUR identified “Perun” and “Maidan-3” as active Russian information campaigns utilizing both Russian and Western channels.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com