Summary of the day: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a law lowering the military mobilization age from 27 to 25, amid ongoing conflicts where Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Russian forces had seized approximately 400 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in early 2024, highlighting the impact of US security assistance delays. Concurrently, Ukraine executed long-range drone strikes against Russian military and oil infrastructure in Tatarstan, significantly distant from the Ukrainian border. Amidst these developments, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg proposed a substantial aid package for Ukraine, while Russian forces confirmed advances near Kreminna and Avdiivka, continuing engagements across the conflict zone. Additionally, Russia’s internal and external policies show tensions, especially in the aftermath of the Crocus City Hall attack, with increased law enforcement actions in occupied Ukraine and the cessation of transactions with the Russian “Mir” payment system by Kyrgyzstan to avoid secondary sanctions.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War III
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, asserting that his country is “preparing for war” to ensure peace, has emphasized that Belarus does not seek conflict or foreign territories. During a visit to Grodno, he stated that Belarus is actively training its military and enhancing its arsenal while interpreting foreign criticism as validation of their course. Concurrently, Belarusian KGB and Russian SVR intelligence services discussed in Moscow their collaborative intelligence efforts and how they could counter the West’s alleged “hostile plans” against the Union State, aiming to improve its defensive and technological capabilities. In addition to these measures, Lukashenko has allowed Belarusian territory to be used by Russian forces and has accepted Russian tactical nuclear weapons, considering them vital to the nation’s sovereignty. However, details regarding Belarus’s nuclear doctrine and the total count of such weapons within its borders have not been disclosed.
Nikolai Patrushev, Russian Security Council Secretary, repeated several of Russia’s long-standing accusations against NATO. He charged NATO with exploiting “terrorist organizations” for its interests and following policies directed by the US. Patrushev asserted that the US and NATO are inciting Ukraine to employ excessive force, maintaining Russia’s stance of innocence in the conflict. Additionally, he accused NATO and Western countries of promoting anti-Russian sentiments.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in Paris that the U.S. does not support or enable Ukrainian strikes outside its borders. This follows reports that the U.S. cautioned Ukraine against attacking Russian oil facilities due to potential global economic repercussions and risks of escalation. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky maintains that striking Russian energy sites is a justified response to Russian aggression. French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne echoed support for Ukraine’s self-defense.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Russia gained 400 square kilometers in Ukraine since 2024 started, though actual confirmed gains are around 305 square kilometers. This progress doesn’t fully show future Russian offensive potential, partly due to US security aid delays affecting Ukraine’s ability to sustain its defense. Ukraine’s material shortages are making some frontlines vulnerable, possibly allowing Russia more flexibility in its offensives and chances for significant future gains.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft forces shot down an expensive Russian Forpost drone over the Black Sea, which is used for attack and reconnaissance and is valued at $7 million. The Odesa anti-aircraft missile brigade was credited with the takedown on April 1. The Forpost, based on Israeli technology and updated similarly to the Turkish Bayraktar, can carry missiles and other weapons. This rare event marks a significant loss for Russia, given the high value of the drone.
In March, Ukrainian forces destroyed a record 976 Russian artillery systems, the highest monthly count since the war began, as reported by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry. This surpasses the previous record from September 2023 of 947 systems. In total, Russia has lost 11,112 artillery systems since the conflict’s escalation. Additionally, Ukraine downed 10 Russian Kinzhal missiles in one night in January and destroyed 13 Russian aircraft in February, the most in a single month since October 2022.
Ukraine is allocating an additional $144 million to strengthen defenses in Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Sumy oblasts, as announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on April 2. Amidst critiques of slow fortification progress, President Zelensky has highlighted the construction of 2,000 kilometers of defenses, stating the pace is satisfactory. The government has previously earmarked $512 million for 2024 defenses, with the largest portions of the new funds designated for Sumy and Donetsk oblasts. Continuous work aims to bolster protection for Ukrainian forces, amidst concerns of a potential Russian offensive later in the year.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made advancements south of Kreminna and engaged in ongoing conflicts along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Evidence shows their recent progress near Bilohorivka, with continued battles northeast of Kupyansk and west of Kreminna, indicating persistent tensions in the region.
Despite ongoing battles near Bakhmut, the frontlines remained unchanged. Claims of Russian advancements near Bohdanivka and movements east of Kanal for future offensives were reported but lack visual proof. Russian forces are said to be within 600-800 meters from Chasiv Yar’s outskirts, a claim partially verified by ISW. Conflicts persist in areas around Bakhmut, with Ukrainian drone activities reportedly hindering Russian advances near Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces have made recent advances around Avdiivka, with ongoing battles reported in the area. Geolocated footage shows movements west of Berdychi, in southern Semenivka, and possibly west of Tonenke, indicating active Russian offensives. However, claims of further Russian progress near Umanske, Vodyane, and Pervomaiske lack visual proof. Continuous engagements are noted northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka, highlighting the strategic focus on this region. Ukrainian forces report that Russian tactics sometimes involve simultaneous attacks in different directions.
During a failed Russian assault west of Avdiivka on March 30, a Russian instructor noted tactical successes but operational flaws, leading to significant equipment losses, including 12 tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles. The attack, described as occurring in multiple waves, lacked consistent artillery support, undermining Russian efforts. Despite initial effective use of combined arms tactics, decreased artillery cover in later waves led to high losses. The instructor suggested that with better support and more waves of attack, Russian forces could potentially overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. However, the lack of essential support and coordination continues to hinder Russian operational success. Ukrainian forces reportedly countered effectively, targeting Russian heavy equipment during the attack.
Ongoing battles were reported west and southwest of Donetsk City, with no shifts in the frontline confirmed. Clashes occurred near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka to the west, and near Novomykhailivka to the southwest. Russian forces are active near Pobieda, southwest of Donetsk.
Ongoing battles took place in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area without any changes to the frontline. Fighting occurred near Mykilske, Velyka Novosilka, Staromayorske, and Urozhaine, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces reporting continued engagements.
There were no changes to the frontline in western Zaporizhia Oblast, despite ongoing limited battles. Russian offensives in the area, especially around Robotyne, are reported to have stalled due to challenging terrain. Clashes continued near Robotyne, Verbove, and Mala Tokmachka, with Russian forces maintaining positions in southern Robotyne.
Battles continued on the east bank of Kherson Oblast without any changes to the frontline. Russian claims of blocking Ukrainian counterattacks in Krynky with artillery were countered by Ukrainian reports that Russian armored assaults there are hindered by significant equipment losses. Russia is reportedly engaging in up to three attacks daily on Ukrainian positions in the area, using drones and artillery between assaults. Additionally, to make up for personnel losses, Russian forces are rotating units from eastern to southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 2 people and the injuries to at least 19 others:
- A Russian attack on Novoosynove, a village near the front line in Kharkiv Oblast, resulted in the death of a 59-year-old man and injury to an 11-year-old boy. The area was struck around 5 p.m., leading to the man’s immediate death and the boy’s hospitalization.
- Russia carried out a missile strike on the city of Dnipro, injuring at least 18 people, with 12, including five children, hospitalized. An educational institution was hit, but no children were harmed as they were sheltered at the time. President Zelensky confirmed a college and a kindergarten were damaged in the assault.
- A 79-year-old man was killed in the village of Tokarivka, Kherson Oblast, due to a Russian attack.
An educational institution that came under a Russian missile attack in Dnipro
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a limited drone and missile attack on Ukraine, including a Kh-59 cruise missile from Zaporizhia Oblast and 10 Shahed drones from Crimea. Ukrainian Air Force intercepted nine of these drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. An energy facility in Kirovohrad Oblast was damaged by a Russian drone strike.
Ukrainian intelligence indicated that Russia might pause its missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure to rebuild its low missile stockpiles. Russia aims to maintain at least 900 missiles, with plans to produce more, including 40 Kh-101 cruise missiles in April. Despite having around 950 operational missiles, Russia will likely halt attacks to prevent dipping below their minimum threshold. Additionally, Russia hasn’t used Kalibr cruise missiles since September 2023, possibly due to Ukrainian air defenses or damage to their carriers. Ukraine also observes increased unknown ballistic missile launches from Crimea, speculating on the use of Zircon hypersonic or Onyx-M cruise missiles. Russia has amassed 440 Onyx missiles, with a production rate of six to eight per month and had previously reduced missile strike intensity in 2023 to save missiles for future campaigns.
In his nightly address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the pivotal role of unmanned aerial vehicles in achieving victory in the ongoing war. Discussing military strategies and production with officials, Zelensky highlighted the success of drones in combat, notably against Russia’s Black Sea fleet. He stressed the urgency for the defense industry to meet wartime demands and discussed NATO interoperability, advocating for Ukraine’s inclusion in the Alliance to ensure European security.
Ukraine has set up an international digital register for citizens to claim compensation for property damaged by Russia, laying the groundwork for future reparations, as stated by Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. With $300 billion in Russian assets frozen in the West, G7 nations have agreed these will stay so until Russia compensates Ukraine. The World Bank estimates Ukraine’s reconstruction needs at $486 billion. Accessible via the Diia app, the platform is now live, with plans to include claims for other war damages such as displacement and violence. The U.K. has expressed willingness to loan Ukraine the frozen Russian assets for reparations.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine enacted legislation to lower the military mobilization age from 27 to 25, enhancing Ukraine’s military capabilities during ongoing conflicts and facilitating the formation of new units. The success of this initiative is closely tied to Ukraine’s ability to properly equip new recruits, a process that depends on the timeliness and magnitude of Western military aid. Complementing this law, Zelensky also approved the creation of an online conscript register and revised medical classifications for service eligibility, requiring re-evaluation of those previously deemed “partially eligible.” These measures are designed to streamline military service, increase troop numbers by 2024, and improve the management of military records. They include allowances for medical treatment, exemptions for those caring for ill children, and provisions for leave after childbirth or injury. Following the Verkhovna Rada’s initial bill to reduce the conscription age, it is now refining a broader mobilization law, considering over 4,000 amendments.
Ukraine is integrating artificial intelligence for precision targeting in its attack drones, enhancing their efficiency against Russian energy targets and mitigating the effects of jamming. These AI-assisted drones, contributing to significant disruptions in Russia’s oil refining capabilities, operate with pre-programmed flight plans, ensuring meter-level accuracy without relying on satellite contact. President Zelensky has prioritized drone advancements and established a dedicated drone branch of the Armed Forces. Ukrainian vocational schools are also starting drone operation programs, reflecting the growing importance of drones in modern warfare and the escalating drone-arms race with Russia. A U.K. company is working on developing jam-resistant drones for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has proposed a $100 billion military aid package for Ukraine, to be disbursed over five years, pending approval from all NATO members and potential amendments during negotiations. The plan, to be discussed further by NATO foreign ministers on April 3, also suggests transferring the management of the U.S.-led Ukraine Contact Defense Group to NATO control. This shift could protect the weapon delivery coordination from U.S. political changes and represents a significant strategic shift for the alliance, which has previously been cautious about escalating involvement. The proposal’s acceptance would reflect the alliance’s varying perspectives on the urgency of the Russian threat, and it will be a key topic at the upcoming July 2024 NATO summit in Washington.
Estonia is considering joining a Czech-led effort to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine, as Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna indicated interest in providing “concrete proposals” to support Ukraine’s defense. With Ukraine’s ammunition supplies dwindling and U.S. aid hindered by congressional delays, the initiative, supported by multiple countries, has reportedly secured contracts for 1 million shells to be delivered to Ukraine as early as April. Estonia, a significant military donor relative to its GDP, commits to continue its military support for Ukraine over the next four years.
Kyrgyzstan’s Elkart payment system will halt transactions with Russia’s “Mir” system starting April 5 to avoid US sanctions. This decision follows US actions against the Mir system’s operator in February 2024. Previously, several Kyrgyz banks reduced their use of Mir after US warnings in 2022. Similar measures have been taken by banks in Kazakhstan and Armenia’s Central Bank, all aiming to prevent secondary sanctions.
The Biden administration refused a proposal to tie Ukraine aid to the resumption of new U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export licenses, maintaining a pause to assess economic and climate impacts. The White House urged the House to pass a Senate-approved national security agreement to provide Ukraine with critical aid against Russia. While the U.S. has already sent $74 billion in aid to Ukraine, the progress on a new $60 billion package is stalled in Congress. Speaker Mike Johnson, amidst discussions, has postponed the vote on Ukrainian aid until after April 7. Some Republicans suggest offering loans instead of aid.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukraine’s intelligence agency claimed responsibility for an explosion at an electrical substation in Sevastopol, Crimea, causing temporary power outages. The method used for the attack was not disclosed. The local governor attributed the outages to a short-circuit, denying any incident at the substation.
Ukraine’s intelligence chief reported that Russia is nearing completion of a railway line connecting Rostov-on-Don, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Crimea, passing through Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. Constructed over a year, this railway could significantly enhance Russia’s ability to move troops and supplies swiftly in the region, posing potential challenges for Ukrainian forces.
The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) is bolstering its law enforcement operations in occupied Ukraine to tighten control over civilians and vital infrastructure. MVD Head Vladimir Kolokoltsev announced the formation of territorial units in these areas, with nearly 14,000 officers, many from local forces, now in occupation police roles. Additionally, over 800 Russian employees and 1,500 new personnel have been incorporated into these forces. These units focus on maintaining order, countering extremism, and protecting infrastructure, including railway facilities. Mobile patrols have increased to 700 teams inspecting around 2,500 sites daily. Collaborative efforts with other Russian security agencies have resulted in 3,000 joint operations. The deployment of 35,000 Rosgvardia personnel further supports these law enforcement activities, with a secondary effect of altering the demographic landscape by introducing more Russian citizens into occupied territories.
Russia is intensifying its policy of passportization in occupied Ukraine, with President Putin revealing that 3.2 million residents in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson have been issued Russian passports since February 2022. Over 2,500 Russian MVD employees are operating 150 passport reception points, documenting over 90% of residents in these areas. This strategy of distributing Russian passports is a tactic to assert claims over occupied territories and justify military interventions, based on the number of Russian passport holders in those regions.
In collaboration with the “Save Ukraine” volunteer group, Ukrainian officials have repatriated a teenager from Russian-occupied Kherson. This teen had been forced into the Russian youth organization, Yunarmiya, which led to concerns over potential conscription by the Russian military. Since early 2024, 48 minors have returned from Kherson, reports Kherson Oblast Administration Head Oleksandr Prokudin. Among those is Mykyta, who, after deportation during Russia’s occupation, endured so-called “patriotic education” in Russia, instilling war propaganda and the fear of being compelled to combat his homeland after reaching adulthood. This reflects a broader campaign of re-education by Russian authorities, a situation highlighted by the Guardian. The International Criminal Court has consequently issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova for their roles in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.
On April 1, an explosion from an unidentified device in an SUV in Starobilsk, Luhansk Oblast, led to the death of Valery Chaika, a deputy head within the educational services of the Luhansk People’s Republic, an official appointed by Moscow. The incident, reported by both Russian and Ukrainian news outlets, resulted in the vehicle sustaining extensive damage, with debris dispersed around the vicinity. Following the explosion, the LNR Investigative Committee initiated a criminal investigation into Chaika’s death.
Russia News
Ukraine executed long-range drone strikes on key Russian military and oil facilities over 1,200 kilometers from its border, targeting the Alabuga Special Economic Zone, where a drone assembly plant is located, and the Taneko oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, Russia’s third-largest refinery. The attacks significantly impaired Russia’s oil refining capacity and damaged drone production, with the Nizhnekamsk strike triggering a fire at one of the country’s largest refineries. Russian officials have attempted to downplay the extent of the damage and injuries, particularly in Yelabuga, while Ukrainian intelligence confirms that these actions are deliberate strikes within a wider campaign to disrupt about 12-14% of Russia’s refining capacity and cripple Russia’s military support industries. Increased security measures in Tatarstan indicate the severity of these incidents, representing a marked escalation in Ukraine’s operational reach and demonstrating its resolve to hinder Russia’s ability to fund its war efforts. The attacks align with Ukraine’s stated military objectives to target and degrade the Russian war machine’s funding and infrastructure, a tactic Ukraine considers a legitimate aspect of its defense strategy.
A fire erupted in Kursk, Russia, with local authorities reporting four drones shot down, causing damage to residential buildings but no casualties. This incident, close to the Ukrainian border, aligns with recent drone strikes Russia claims are targeting its oil facilities. While Ukraine has not officially claimed these operations, they have intensified actions against Russian oil infrastructure since late 2023.
The Atesh guerrilla group reported via Telegram that Russia has deployed S-300 air-defense systems and Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft artillery to protect the Kerch Bridge from potential Ukrainian attacks. Partisans noted an increase in air defense in Crimea and a reduction in Russian naval ship movement, suggesting a strategic shift to fortify the bridge’s defenses. Despite efforts to discredit them, Atesh continues to document Russian military movements, including equipment transfers towards Kherson and an uptick in air defense assets at Dzhankoy Airport. Their surveillance reveals that some military equipment appears to be damaged and potentially headed for repair, indicative of losses faced by Russian forces.
After the Crocus City Hall attack, President Putin discussed migration, linking it to extremism but offered no clear policy direction, aside from improving Russia’s migration database to prevent extremists from legally staying without language proficiency. He proposed a vague overhaul of migration policies aimed at preserving Russia’s cultural identity, while cautioning against using the attack to fuel ethnic or xenophobic sentiments. This stance conflicts with ultranationalist calls for stricter anti-migration measures, which could impact Russia’s labor market and war efforts. Putin’s ambiguous proposals highlight the challenge of balancing nationalist demands with practical economic and security needs.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appointed Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk as the new commander of the Black Sea Fleet, replacing Admiral Viktor Sokolov, who is presumed to have died in a Ukrainian strike on the fleet’s headquarters in Crimea in September 2023. The U.K. Defense Ministry suggests that Pinchuk is expected to implement additional protective measures for Russian vessels in response to Ukrainian attacks. Facing a challenging situation due to recent losses of multiple Russian landing ships and international sanctions against him, Pinchuk takes command while Russia’s Defense Ministry challenges claims of Sokolov’s death. Moreover, the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Sokolov over his involvement in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to deploy new small missile and patrol ships in 2024, with three Karakurt-class missile carriers expected from the Zelenodolsk Shipyard in Tatarstan. These ships are slated for distribution across the Black Sea, Pacific, and Baltic Fleets. Additionally, a Project 22160 patrol ship will join the Black Sea Fleet within the year. This move comes as a response to Ukrainian forces disabling about 33% of the Black Sea Fleet’s warships, indicating an effort to replenish lost capabilities.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted efforts to expand military training infrastructure, noting an increase from 100 to 240 training grounds and facilities since 2012. Currently, Russia is building two new grounds in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk, with plans for five more by end of 2024. This expansion is seen as essential to accommodate the staffing needs of new divisions and armies, indicating a significant push to bolster military capabilities amid ongoing expansion efforts.
Russian officials are reportedly intensifying efforts to gather personal data of potential recruits by mandating Moscow university students to consent to share their information with military offices to obtain their Moscow Social Card, which offers transport discounts. This move aims to compile a database of residents eligible for military service, as highlighted by activists from the “Military Lawyers” human rights group.
Russia’s Allies
U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping conducted a phone call to discuss various global issues, including urging China to influence Russia and Iran towards stability in Ukraine and the Middle East. Their dialogue follows a November 2023 meeting where they resolved to maintain regular communication. Amidst the ongoing conflict, China has deepened economic ties with Russia, challenging Western sanctions. Western and Ukrainian officials hope China will leverage its relationship with Moscow to facilitate an end to the war. While abstaining from UN resolutions condemning Russia and declaring itself a “force for peace,” China is also considering joining peace talks in Switzerland on Ukraine’s initiative, reflecting a potential diplomatic role in resolving the crisis.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a Ministry of Internal Affairs meeting, emphasized the need for heightened security and preparedness in response to the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack. He underscored the implementation of law enforcement actions against migrant communities and incorrectly attributed the attack to Ukraine. Furthermore, Putin called for improved management of extremist groups and admitted to existing shortcomings in Russia’s response strategies, indirectly critiquing Russian intelligence’s oversights and aiming to assure the public of measures being taken to rectify these failures. Concurrently, Russian officials, including Putin and MVD Head Vladimir Kolokoltsev, continued to baselessly portray Ukraine as a security threat, while the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service accused the US of concealing supposed Ukrainian involvement, suggesting the Islamic State’s Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) was responsible instead. Operational activities in the North Caucasus and intensified scrutiny of Central Asian migrants reflect a directed attention towards internal and Central Asian origins of terrorism, rather than Ukrainian. Despite the absence of concrete evidence, the Kremlin is determined to leverage domestic fear and anger stemming from the attack to foster perceptions of Ukrainian and Western culpability in what it claims are “terrorist” actions within Russia, aiming to galvanize Russian domestic support for the conflict in Ukraine. Independent evaluations, such as those by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), have identified the Islamic State as the actual assailant, without any verified links to Ukraine.
Russian authorities, perpetuating the view of Russia as the Orthodox faith’s protector, intercepted a smuggling operation at the Latvia–Russia border. The FSB and Federal Customs Service found explosives concealed within Orthodox icons and church paraphernalia, alleged to have come from the EU and Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov cited the incident as evidence of Ukraine employing “terrorist methods,” despite no solid proof of Ukrainian involvement. This accusation fits into a larger narrative portraying Ukraine negatively, while positioning the Russian Orthodox Church as a moral guardian, even as it supports Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine. The FSB’s seizure at the Ubylinka border crossing with Latvia resulted in the capture of a truck carrying hidden explosives and parts of an RPG-7 grenade launcher, purportedly originating from Ukraine, and transiting through various European nations. The Russian-captured driver professed to be unaware of the lethal cargo, sparking an extensive criminal probe to find all participants in the scheme.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com