Summary of the day: Russian forces have ramped up mechanized assaults along the frontline in Ukraine, indicating a potential surge in the intensity of their offensive efforts. Despite this escalation, Ukrainian defense is hindered by the slow and fragmented delivery of Western military aid, which may give Russian forces time to mitigate its impact. In response to recent Ukrainian drone strikes, regional Russian leaders are urging self-defense measures, even as the Russian Ministry of Defense reports a recruitment spike following an attack in Moscow. Meanwhile, internal tensions are surfacing as Russian ultranationalists express dissatisfaction with their political representation, and on the international front, Ukraine strengthens its defense ties with a 10-year security pact with Finland.
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Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces have stepped up their tank and armored vehicle assaults in Ukraine recently. Ukrainian troops have successfully fought off several large-scale attacks, including one involving 36 tanks. This increased Russian activity seems timed to get ahead of the spring mud that hampers vehicle movement and to push before more Western aid arrives in Ukraine.
Russian offensives in Ukraine are accelerating, with increased attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including hydroelectric plants. This uptick in strikes, combined with a stealthy buildup of Russian military resources at the front, hints at potential large-scale assaults. The U.S. Deputy Secretary of State noted Russia’s military has nearly fully rebuilt, indicating a readiness for intensified or expanded military action.
Ukrainian officials are warning that slow and partial deliveries of Western military systems are giving Russia time to adjust and reduce the impact of these weapons. High-ranking Ukrainian military officers have expressed that the new Western weapons are not arriving in the quantities or speed needed to be fully effective. While earlier deliveries like anti-tank missiles and HIMARS were timely and helpful, others, such as F-16 fighter jets due to arrive in summer 2024, may face a Russian defense system already prepared for them. The limited time frame to effectively use new systems emphasizes the need for quicker and larger-scale deliveries to counter Russian forces effectively.
Despite Ukraine pushing the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) from the western Black Sea, Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk warns Russia can still launch Kalibr cruise missile attacks. In the last month, Russia has positioned missile carriers in the sea ahead of drone strikes against Ukraine. The BSF has nine Kalibr missile carriers, both surface ships and submarines.
Ukraine’s military intelligence has alerted that Russia is spreading false narratives about potential offensives from Belarus and plans to capture Kharkiv City to cause panic. However, Ukrainian authorities and independent assessments confirm no significant Russian military movements suggest these claims are credible.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces attempted, but failed, to carry out a company-sized mechanized attack west of Kreminna and resumed smaller assaults near Svatove as of April 3. Video evidence shows Ukrainian troops repelling a Russian attack east of Terny, using drones, artillery, and missiles. This activity suggests Russia is focusing on the Lyman area, possibly ramping up attacks there. Meanwhile, Russian bloggers claimed minor territorial gains west of Svatove, though Ukrainian forces successfully defended against attacks in the region. The situation near Svatove and the broader Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna front remains tense, with ongoing skirmishes.
Russian reports indicate their forces are hitting Ukrainian supply lines and command centers in the Kupyansk area. According to Russian military bloggers, a glide bomb hit a Ukrainian command post in Borova, and footage shared shows an attack on a bridge near Kupyansk, critical for logistics. This is part of a strategy to damage key crossings over the Oskil River, aiming to cut off Ukrainian forces east of the river.
Russian troops have made progress west of Bakhmut, with ongoing battles in the region. Evidence from April 2 confirms advancements by Russian forces in southwestern Ivanivske. Claims of further movement towards Chasiv Yar have been made but lack verification. Fights are happening in multiple locations around Bakhmut, including to the northeast, northwest, southwest, and south. Russian airborne units are also active east of Chasiv Yar.
Russian commentators reveal significant challenges for their forces around Chasiv Yar, including heavy losses from dismounted infantry assaults under intense Ukrainian drone surveillance. Some Russian troops reportedly receive as little as a week and a half of training before being sent to the Bakhmut front, exacerbating casualties. The difficulties are compounded by dense Ukrainian minefields, well-prepared defenses, and indirect fire capabilities, making the seizure of Chasiv Yar a daunting task.
Russian forces have made some progress west of Avdiivka, pushing towards the Umanske-Netaylove area, with claims of advancing up to 1.5 kilometers. There are reports of Ukrainian withdrawals from Berdychi and Semenivka, with Russian occupation of most of Berdychi and presence in Semenivka’s southern outskirts confirmed. Ongoing clashes are also reported near Avdiivka, including the areas of Tonenke, Umanske, and Yasnobrodivka, as well as southwest near Vodyane, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske. Russian forces continue operations near Tonenke, despite suffering significant losses recently.
There were ongoing skirmishes southwest of Donetsk City, with Russian troops making slight gains near Novomykhailivka, based on the latest geolocated footage. Russian military bloggers have reported advancements in the area, including an attempt to encircle Novomykhailivka, though these claims await independent confirmation. Battles also persisted near Mykilske, closer to Vuhledar. Russian military units are actively engaged in combat operations in these sectors.
Russian troops achieved small gains in the area between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts, with evidence of advancements north of Pryyutne. Ongoing clashes were also reported south of Velyka Novosilka, near Urozhaine and Staromayorske.
The western Zaporizhia Oblast saw ongoing battles without any shifts in frontlines. Reports from a Russian military blogger mention Russian forces thwarting a Ukrainian offensive along the Robotyne-Verbove axis. Continuous engagements were also noted near Robotyne and to its northwest, around Verbove.
Ongoing clashes were reported on Kherson Oblast’s east bank, notably near Krynky, without shifts in frontlines. Ukrainian authorities observed a tactical shift by Russian forces, now favoring more frequent attacks with smaller units. There’s also a report of Ukrainian forces holding positions near the Antonivsky bridge north of Oleshky.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 5 people and the injuries to 16 others:
- Russian drone strikes in Kharkiv resulted in at least four fatalities, including three emergency service workers and a civilian, and wounded 12 others. The drones hit residential areas and emergency vehicles early on April 4, causing significant damage. Out of 15 drones launched, some were intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses. Additional attacks on the region on April 3 injured two more people.
- A Russian missile strike in the Krasnopillia community, Sumy Oblast resulted in one fatality and two injuries, including a man and his four-year-old son. The attack also damaged a shop, a cultural center, and five vehicles. Emergency services are responding to the incident.
Aftermath of attack on Kharkiv
The aftermath of a Russian missile attack against the Krasnopillia community in Sumy Oblast
Ukraine News
Overnight and during the day, Russian forces carried out targeted drone and missile attacks on Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force intercepted four Shahed drones launched from Krasnodar Krai, destroying them over various regions. Additionally, Russian missiles hit Donetsk Oblast, including Selydove. President Zelensky noted that since the start of 2024, Russia has launched nearly 1,000 missiles, 2,800 Shahed drones, and almost 7,000 glide bombs at Ukraine.
Ukraine is set to introduce a military ombudsman within the Defense Ministry to address violations of servicemen’s rights, a move outlined by President Zelensky for Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. This department will handle appeals, provide legal assistance, investigate complaints, and monitor issues such as medical care, discrimination, leave rights, and financial guarantees. A hotline and social media monitoring will facilitate reporting, with immediate referrals of violations to law enforcement. The initiative draws on practices from countries like Norway and Sweden, which has maintained a military ombudsman for over a century.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Ukraine is amending its conscription bill, indicating further mobilization, though the numbers are expected to be lower than the initial proposal of up to 500,000 from December last year. These moves are seen against a backdrop of ongoing conflict and accusations of Russian misinformation regarding the war’s broader human cost.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine and Finland have agreed on a decade-long security partnership. Finland is also sending Ukraine a military aid package valued at approximately $204 million, consisting of air defense materials and artillery ammunition.
President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with Portugal’s new Prime Minister Luis Montenegro about crafting a security pact between Ukraine and Portugal, following Finland’s recent signing of a 10-year agreement with Ukraine. This move aligns with the G7’s commitment to enhance Ukraine’s defenses against Russia, a group Portugal joined last summer. Zelensky praised Portugal’s support, noting its contribution to a Czech-led initiative providing artillery to Ukraine and its role in training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets, highlighting the international coalition’s efforts from a NATO summit in Vilnius.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg suggested that a long-term NATO commitment to Ukraine could prompt peace by convincing Russia it cannot win the war. At a Brussels meeting, NATO allies promised continued support for Ukraine, discussing ways to provide more predictable, sustained assistance within the NATO framework. This strategy aims to signal to Moscow the futility of waiting out NATO’s support. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned the upcoming July NATO summit in Washington as a key moment for outlining Ukraine’s path to NATO membership, following a lack of a formal invitation at the 2023 summit in Vilnius. Ukrainian officials are hopeful for a clearer indication of their NATO membership prospects at the Washington meeting.
In Brussels, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba engaged in crucial discussions with allies, focusing on bolstering Ukraine’s air defense amid frequent ballistic missile attacks. At the NATO meeting, marking its 75th anniversary, talks included further aid to Ukraine and succession for Jens Stoltenberg’s role. Kuleba emphasized the urgent need for Patriot air defense systems in meetings with Polish and Spanish counterparts, highlighting their vital role in defending against missile incursions. He also met with the EU’s Josep Borrell to discuss increasing Patriot system supplies, artillery ammunition delivery, upcoming sanctions against Russia, and a future Ukraine-EU defense forum. Despite having over 100 Patriot systems, Ukraine’s allies have hesitated to supply the minimum number deemed necessary by Kyiv. Amidst escalating Russian attacks, Ukraine faces a pressing need for effective air defense to protect civilians and infrastructure, with President Zelensky reporting significant Russian assaults in March.
Estonian President Alar Karis, during a meeting with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, supported Ukraine’s right to target Russian military infrastructure, deeming it legitimate for slowing down Russia’s war efforts.
Austria is providing Ukraine with €2 million ($2.2 million) in humanitarian aid as part of its support against Russian aggression, adhering to its neutrality policy by not offering lethal military assistance. This contribution is within a larger €21.5 million ($23.3 million) aid package aimed at various regions, including sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. The funds will support local Austrian aid organizations. Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer emphasizes that such assistance not only addresses immediate humanitarian needs but also contributes to broader European security by potentially reducing illegal migration. Nehammer has also expressed opposition to using profits from frozen Russian assets for arming Ukraine.
Latvia has pledged approximately €5.3 million ($5.7 million) for Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts in 2024, focusing on Chernihiv Oblast’s social infrastructure and expertise transfer, among other areas. Additionally, Latvia will contribute €4.3 million ($4.6 million) to Ukraine’s defense through the European Peace Facility, aligning with the EU’s commitment to a €5 billion defense fund for Ukraine. As a significant supporter, Latvia has dedicated over 1% of its GDP to military aid for Ukraine, marking one of the highest contributions among allies.
German customs in Rostock detained a cargo ship, Atlantic Navigator II, carrying €40 million worth of sanctioned Russian uranium and lumber. Registered in the Marshall Islands but crewed mostly by Russians, the ship was stopped for propeller damage and is now under investigation for carrying goods under sanctions, intended for the U.S. Despite the U.S. not having sanctions on Russian uranium and lumber, a recent bill aims to ban Russian uranium imports. The future of the ship and its cargo remains uncertain, highlighting the use of the Marshall Islands by Russian ships for business operations, possibly to evade sanctions.
The Netherlands committed €10 million to support Ukraine in investigating Russian war crimes, announced Dutch Foreign Minister Bruins Slot during the Restoring Justice for Ukraine Conference in The Hague. This funding aims to enhance national research and investigations. The conference, co-chaired by officials from the Netherlands, Ukraine, and the EU, involved over 60 countries and focused on international efforts to seek justice for Ukraine through various workstreams, including support for national investigations and documentation by civil groups. A significant development includes the operational Register of Damage for Ukraine, facilitating claims for damages incurred due to the invasion, with over 100 claims processed. Additionally, 44 countries endorsed a declaration for establishing a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes, as Ukraine has documented thousands of such crimes since the conflict’s onset.
President Zelensky thanked Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida for Japan’s $12 billion in assistance to Ukraine and additional support planned for 2024 during a recent phone call. Highlighting a Japanese-Ukrainian conference in Tokyo, where over 50 bilateral agreements were signed to enhance business cooperation and support Ukraine’s reconstruction, Zelensky expressed gratitude. These efforts contribute to addressing Ukraine’s estimated $486 billion reconstruction needs over the next decade, as assessed by the World Bank, the Ukrainian government, and the EU. Additionally, Ukraine recently received $118 million from Japan through World Bank projects.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken affirmed that Russia will not be able to take over Ukraine, including the capital city, Kyiv. In an interview, he expressed confidence that the combination of Ukraine’s resilience and international support, including from the US and France, has thwarted Putin’s ambitions to annex the country. Blinken also touched on the delicate balance the US maintains in supporting Ukraine to prevent Russian aggression from posing a broader threat, while also avoiding a direct war with Russia.
US Special Representative Penny Pritzker visited Lviv, Ukraine, to explore an emerging tech hub contributing to the country’s economic recovery. During her trip, she met with Lviv’s Mayor Andriy Sadovy and local tech leaders. Pritzker, with familial ties to Ukraine and a background in commerce, works with global and US partners to support Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery. Her visit underscores the US commitment to fostering Ukraine’s growing technology sector.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Seven more Ukrainian children and their families have been safely returned from Russian-held areas in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. This brings the total number of children returned to less than 400 out of the at least 19,500 reported abducted by Russia since the war began. Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets detailed the families’ hardships under occupation and their reasons for fleeing, including avoiding forced Russian military conscription for boys. The returning families will receive medical, psychological, and humanitarian support, along with assistance in job and school placement. This effort is part of an international coalition involving 33 countries, co-founded by Ukraine and Canada, aimed at rescuing Ukrainian children from Russian territories. The ICC has an active arrest warrant for President Putin over the deportation of Ukrainian children.
In Oleshky, under Russian occupation across the Dnipro River from liberated parts of Kherson Oblast, the situation is dire, with some villages entirely destroyed and absent from the map. Constant shelling has disrupted essential services, leaving residents without electricity, water, and gas. In 2024 alone, 21 civilians have been injured, and seven killed, with actual numbers likely higher. The area also suffered from the Kakhovka Dam explosion in June 2023, with at least hundreds dead from the resulting floods, contradicting Russia’s lower official death toll. Ukrainian officials report over 500 flood-related deaths in Oleshky, where Russian forces have blocked evacuations and appropriated humanitarian aid.
Russia News
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that Russian forces experienced 710 casualties in the past day.
Ukraine’s military intelligence has confirmed that their drones hit a drone assembly facility and an oil refinery in Tatarstan, a considerable distance from Ukrainian borders, without using weapons from Western allies. These strikes, which Russia’s air defenses failed to prevent, have stirred doubts among Russian officials, with some suggesting the drones might have come from Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, due to its burgeoning drone industry and collaboration on UAV technology. However, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Defense has refuted any involvement in these incidents. Despite the U.N.’s calls to stop attacks on civilian infrastructure and the U.S. Secretary of State’s assertion that America does not support Ukraine engaging targets outside its borders, Ukrainian President Zelensky defends these actions as legitimate military strategy and essential to national self-defense. This stance also supports Ukraine’s initiative to enhance its domestic drone manufacturing capabilities, including plans to ramp up production, which parallels Kazakhstan’s efforts to establish similar technological advancements in UAV production.
After Ukrainian drone strikes on military and oil sites in Tatarstan, Tatarstan’s leader, Rustam Minnikhanov, has told Russian businesses and cities to take their own defense measures, not just rely on the military’s air defenses. This statement and reported new Russian military tactics against drones suggest Russia can’t fully protect important locations with existing defenses. Ukraine’s capability to hit deeper into Russian territory marks a significant shift, and Minnikhanov’s comments signal a serious concern over defense shortcomings.
US officials reportedly provided detailed information to Russia that could have prevented the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, contradicting Kremlin claims that the US warning was too vague. Russian President Vladimir Putin had earlier dismissed US Embassy warnings about potential extremist attacks in Moscow as a provocation. Despite this, the FSB did act on a warning about a possible attack on a synagogue, claiming to have thwarted an ISIS attack on a Jewish temple in Moscow. The Washington Post’s revelation that the US had specifically identified Crocus City Hall as a target raises questions about Russian security measures, given the subsequent ISIS-Khorasan-claimed attack, which resulted in 140 deaths and over 500 injuries. This incident may affect how Russia and Iran, another country warned by the US about a potential attack, respond to future US intelligence under its “duty to warn” policy regarding terrorism.
Ex-Ukrainian separatist politician Oleg Tsaryov criticized the lack of a political party representing Russian ultranationalists, revealing tensions with the Kremlin. He argues that growing nationalist sentiment in Russia demands a legitimate party to channel policy change. This comes as the Kremlin seeks to suppress ultranationalist movements, exemplified by the arrest of nationalist figure Igor Girkin. Tsaryov’s comments suggest a disconnect between Russian ultranationalists’ desires and Putin’s approach to nationalism in the context of the Ukraine war.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims a spike in military recruitment, with 16,000 new service contracts in the last 10 days and over 100,000 since early 2024, citing the motivation to avenge the Crocus City Hall attack by ISIS, which the Kremlin blames on Ukraine. Despite this, Ukrainian President Zelensky and other sources suggest that the increase in Russian forces may not be through formal mobilization but rather covertly, with Russia potentially preparing to add 300,000 troops by June 1. Zelensky’s comments come alongside Putin’s decree for standard spring conscription of 150,000 citizens and the U.K. Defense Ministry’s report of Russia’s ongoing recruitment to support the war effort.
Russia is increasing social benefits for its military personnel involved in Ukraine. The “Defenders of the Fatherland” Foundation, since its start in June 2023, has handled over 910,000 benefit cases, resolving around 780,000 for servicemen. This foundation supports servicemen and veterans, including rehabilitation and aid for wounded veterans and their families, and has established branches across Russia and occupied Ukraine. President Putin announced that soldiers from private military companies will now receive combat disability status, and Prime Minister Mishustin highlighted the government’s focus on speeding up benefits and exempting servicemen from property taxes.
Russian officials are highlighting their defense industry’s achievements and efforts to lessen dependency on Western machine tools. Prime Minister Mishustin reported a significant boost in weapon and equipment production in 2023, with machine tool production jumping over 60% from the previous year, following three decades of stagnation. Russia plans to invest 300 billion rubles ($3.25 billion) into machine tool manufacturing over the next six years. Despite these efforts and ongoing sanctions, Lithuanian intelligence suggests Russia still seeks and uses foreign-made precision tools for military production.
As of March 2024, Ukraine’s Intelligence reports that Russia’s Aerospace Forces possess around 100 Su-35 fighters, over 100 Su-34 bombers, and seven A-50 radar aircraft. Currently, Russia is repairing and upgrading two A-50s in Taganrog and another in Ulyanovsk. Despite these numbers, Ukrainian forces claim to have shot down more than 15 Su-34 and Su-35 fighters, along with two A-50s since the start of 2024, though these claims have not been independently verified.
Russia’s Allies
Ukraine’s Air Force has noted that Russia still uses Belarusian airfields for military drills, and there’s a possibility of airstrikes being launched from Belarus into Ukraine. This observation is based on past instances where Russian forces utilized Belarus for combat operations against Ukraine in February 2022.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack, Russia has been attempting to blame Ukraine and Western countries for sponsoring terrorism, without evidence. The Russian Prosecutor General’s Office queried the US, Germany, France, and Cyprus regarding alleged involvement in “terrorist” attacks on Russian soil. Additionally, Russia has appealed to the UN to condemn the West for supposedly promoting terrorism and accused the Ukrainian embassy in Tajikistan of recruiting mercenaries. Despite these claims, the US had warned Russia about a potential threat to the Crocus City Hall venue prior to the attack, a report Russia dismissed as false. The Kremlin aims to use these allegations to bolster domestic support for its war in Ukraine, yet independent analyses and actions within Russia suggest the actual security concerns stem from within its borders, particularly from Central Asian and Muslim minority communities.
Ukraine’s military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov dismissed rumors of an imminent Russian offensive on Kharkiv as a Russian psychological tactic. Despite speculation fueled by independent Russian media and comments by Belarus’s leader about wartime preparations, Ukraine sees no changes in Russian military formations that would indicate an upcoming assault. Ukrainian forces are fortifying defenses, and while military scenarios are considered, Kyiv believes Moscow lacks the resources for a new offensive. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief acknowledges the possibility of an attack but deems any immediate offensive on Kharkiv would be a grave mistake for Russia.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com