Summary of the day: Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitri Peskov, heightened the narrative of a “direct confrontation” with NATO, a move seen as an amplification of Russia’s information operations aimed at deterring Western involvement. This comes as Army General Valery Gerasimov calls for increased cooperation within the Commonwealth of Independent States to counter perceived Western threats. Amidst this, Russia targets France with its escalatory information campaign, in response to President Macron’s push for increased security assistance to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov engages in an information offensive, suggesting a feigned openness to negotiations, which might indicate a new wave of intensified rhetoric from Russia. On the ground, Russian forces have achieved tactical advances, making a mechanized assault towards Chasiv Yar, indicating a continued push near Bakhmut and Donetsk City, despite NATO officials reporting no signs of an impending large-scale Russian mobilization.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War III
The Kremlin has escalated its rhetoric by claiming a “direct confrontation” with NATO, hinting at tension due to the alliance’s expansion near Russian borders. This language is part of a strategy to deter Western support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia continues to prepare for potential conflict with NATO, evidenced by military reforms and strategic regional restructuring.
Russian General Valery Gerasimov has called on members of the Commonwealth of Independent States to bolster their military cooperation in the face of what Russia perceives as growing Western threats. He accused the West of undermining global security and falsely claimed it supports terrorism. Gerasimov is seeking to present Russia as the head of a bloc opposed to the West, although only Belarus among these nations has shown support for Russia’s stance on Ukraine and its annexations. Russia also appears to be using ties with the Commonwealth states to bypass sanctions.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned France against sending troops to Ukraine, responding to French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion of increasing military support for Ukraine. This warning during a call with his French counterpart aims to discourage the West from boosting aid to Ukraine. Despite suggesting openness to dialogue, France denies any inclination toward negotiations on Ukraine, pointing out that Russia’s calls for peace talks seem to be part of a strategy to pressure Western nations to influence Ukraine into a disadvantageous position.
Russian military bloggers have expressed concerns over several post-Soviet states distancing themselves from Russia’s influence. They criticized Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for policies that might strain relations with Azerbaijan and alleged Western efforts to reduce Russian influence in Armenia, Ukraine, and Moldova. Additionally, they disapproved of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan’s growing ties with NATO, suggesting it compromises their sovereignty, and lamented Kazakhstan’s disregard for its historical connections with Russia.
The Finnish government has extended the closure of its border with Russia indefinitely due to concerns over orchestrated migrant influxes. The closure, initiated in November 2023, remains in effect amid fears of manipulated migration. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo emphasized the ongoing threat and the risk of repeating past challenges if the border reopened. Additionally, Finland has closed maritime crossing points for leisure boating to prevent potential migrant arrivals via sea routes.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
NATO intelligence suggests Russia may not be capable of launching a major offensive against Ukraine soon, citing a lack of necessary ammunition and maneuver units. Despite President Zelensky’s warnings of a potential Russian offensive in the spring or early summer, NATO points out Russian frontline units are understaffed and lack experience, making significant success unlikely without further mobilization. Zelensky also mentioned Russia’s plans to mobilize an additional 300,000 soldiers by June. Meanwhile, Ukraine is exploring further troop mobilization, with a new bill under parliamentary consideration.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in Ukraine, with no significant shifts in frontlines. Clashes were reported near several towns in the area, and while there were unconfirmed claims by Russian bloggers of advances in Terny, these were later retracted. Russian sources also noted Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance is challenging their offensive efforts near Lyman.
Russian forces launched a significant mechanized assault towards Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut, making it to the settlement’s eastern outskirts before being halted by Ukrainian defense. Geolocated footage confirmed the assault’s progress along a key highway. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed nearly half of the Russian armored vehicles involved. This attack is part of a broader increase in the intensity and frequency of Russian mechanized assaults in eastern Ukraine, suggesting a strategic emphasis on offensive operations in specific areas.
Russian forces have made advances near Bakhmut, with geolocated footage showing progress north of Vesele, northwest of Berestove, and significant control in southern Ivanivske. However, claims of total control over Ivanivske lack visual proof, and parts of the town remain contested. Fighting continues around Bakhmut, particularly northeast, northwest, west, and southwest of the city. Russian airborne units are notably active on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar.
Near Avdiivka, continued positional battles were reported, with Russian forces making advances in areas southeast of Umanske and near Semenivka, claiming control of portions of Semenivka. However, visual confirmation of these advances is limited. Russian claims of Ukrainian withdrawals in nearby regions lack evidence, according to analysis. Ukrainian forces reportedly carried out counterattacks in several locations around Avdiivka. The fighting also extended to areas west and southwest of the city, with Ukrainian military noting Russian efforts to capitalize on favorable weather before spring conditions hinder mechanized movements.
Russian forces made gains west and southwest of Donetsk City, with recent advances reported near Krasnohorivka and control claimed over most of Novomykhailivka, although Ukrainian forces still hold the western edges. The fighting remains ongoing in these areas, with Russian tactics including small infantry group assaults. Notably, various Russian and Donetsk People’s Republic units are active in the conflict zones, indicating a concerted military effort.
Positional skirmishes persist in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border region, especially near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
In western Zaporizhia Oblast, fighting persisted with no shifts in frontlines reported. Claims of Russian advancements near Robotyne and Verbove lack verification. Russian military units are active in these areas, indicating ongoing military engagements without confirmed territorial changes.
Intensified fighting was reported in east Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky, with Ukrainian forces defending against numerous small Russian infantry attacks. The assaults aim to stretch Ukrainian defenses across different fronts. This increase in Russian military activity marks a significant escalation in efforts against Ukrainian positions in the region.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
According to the State Emergency Service, Russia’s “double-tap” strikes in Ukraine have killed 91 and injured 348 first responders since the war’s onset. These attacks involve an initial strike followed by a delayed second one, targeting those who rush to aid. In the most recent incident on April 4 in Kharkiv, three emergency workers died, and another was severely injured. Similar attacks occurred in Odesa in March.
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 7 people and the injuries to 15 others:
- A Russian attack in the Kharkiv district on April 4 killed a 36-year-old man working on a tractor between Berezivka and Korotych villages. Two others, aged 55 and 21, were injured. Overnight, Russian drone strikes in Kharkiv killed four and injured 12, including first responders.
- A Russian attack on Niu-York village in Donetsk Oblast killed two people and wounded another. Governor Vadym Filashkin reported damage to numerous houses and urged evacuation from areas near the front line due to ongoing danger.
Ukraine News
On the night of April 3-4, Ukrainian forces intercepted 11 out of 20 Shahed drones launched by Russia from Kursk Oblast. These drone attacks damaged energy facilities in Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts and hit residential areas in Kharkiv City, with subsequent strikes killing Ukrainian emergency workers. Ukraine anticipates ongoing Russian strikes on its infrastructure, noting a strategy that combines missile and drone attacks. Despite these frequent assaults, Russia seems to be conserving missiles, aiming to sustain a strategic reserve while continuing its campaign against Ukrainian targets.
For the first time since the onset of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces attacked a solar power plant in Ukraine, marking a shift in their targeting strategy towards renewable energy facilities, according to Volodymyr Kudrytskyi of Ukrenergo. Amidst a broader campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, over 400 missiles and 600 drones have been deployed in recent weeks, significantly damaging the country’s power generation capacity, including thermal and hydroelectric plants. Despite these assaults, there’s currently no acute power shortage in Ukraine due to decreased demand from warmer weather and increased solar production. However, the attacks have left significant portions of Ukraine’s thermal power capacity and several key power plants in dire conditions.
Ukraine’s military intelligence hints at continuing and expanding drone strikes on Russian military sites, following recent attacks on oil refineries and a drone manufacturing facility in Tatarstan. The strikes, which have been carried out with long-range drones, have inflicted significant damage, particularly to a Shahed drone production site, hampering its operations. While Kyiv typically refrains from commenting on these actions, the intelligence spokesman highlighted the effectiveness of these strikes and anticipated further operations with increased range. This comes amid Russia’s use of Shahed drones against Ukrainian targets, underscoring a strategic shift in Ukraine’s military tactics to include domestic long-range drones.
A poll by the International Republican Institute (IRI) reveals that only 45% of Ukrainians believe the war with Russia will conclude with Ukraine restoring its 1991 borders, including Crimea. This figure marks a decrease from February 2023, when 74% felt such an outcome was possible. Other respondents are divided, with 16% each believing Ukraine will regain territories held before the full-scale invasion without Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, or that Russia will capture additional land. The survey highlighted a generational gap in expectations, with younger Ukrainians less optimistic about restoring the 1991 borders than older ones. Still, 39% consider this restoration a key war goal. The poll excluded Russian-occupied areas.
A recent survey by the Sociological Group Rating reveals that 59% of Ukrainians speak exclusively Ukrainian at home, a significant increase from previous years, with only 12% speaking solely Russian, down from 26% before Russia’s full-scale invasion. Additionally, 28% of households use both languages. The shift towards Ukrainian is more pronounced in the west, with 93% speaking it exclusively, while the east shows a more balanced linguistic landscape. This change coincides with a government initiative to strengthen the Ukrainian language’s presence, aiming for 80% of Ukrainians to speak Ukrainian at home by 2030. Public sentiment strongly favors Ukrainian over Russian in official domains.
The Ukrainian Parliamentary Committee on Regional Development has endorsed the renaming of seven cities and 44 villages to remove Russian or Soviet references, aligning with the Ukrainian language and identity standards. This move continues Ukraine’s decommunization efforts initiated in 2015 and is further propelled by a 2023 law prohibiting geographic names honoring Russian figures, following Russia’s invasion. Proposed changes include renaming Krasnohrad to Berestyn and Vatutine to Bahacheve, among others, reflecting a return to Ukrainian heritage. The proposed names are awaiting final parliamentary approval.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has found that Russian forces hacked into Ukrainian military personnel’s devices to target a missile strike, killing at least 19 soldiers of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in November 2023. The Brigade was holding an award ceremony, which was directly hit by an Iskander-M missile. Investigations revealed negligence in ignoring drone reconnaissance and failing to conceal the gathering, prompting Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to criticize the lack of disguise and President Zelensky to vow reforms. SBU cybersecurity chief Illia Vitiuk detailed that phishing attacks on military messengers led to Russians obtaining information on the ceremony’s exact location and time, causing the fatal strike. Initial reports of 19 fatalities have been revised, with up to 30 soldiers possibly killed.
Ukraine’s Allies
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that an invitation to Ukraine for NATO membership would directly result in its accession, highlighting a unanimous agreement among allies on Ukraine’s future in the alliance. Stoltenberg clarified that unlike the EU’s prolonged process, NATO’s approach ensures swift membership post-invitation. This streamlined accession process, he noted, underscores NATO’s commitment to Ukraine, emphasizing the alliance’s role in ensuring Ukraine’s defense and deterring future aggression as part of its path towards membership and the security guarantees it brings, including Article 5’s collective defense.
The White House has declined a suggestion from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to pass on the leadership of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, also known as the Ramstein Group, to NATO. This group, which comprises over 50 countries including those from the Indo-Pacific, aims to coordinate military support for Ukraine. White House advisor John Kirby emphasized the role of American leadership in forming and sustaining the group. Stoltenberg’s proposal, which also includes creating a NATO fund of €100 billion for Ukraine, aimed to ensure continuous support for Kyiv, especially with concerns about potential changes in US commitment depending on future presidential elections. NATO foreign ministers plan to discuss this proposal further before a July meeting in Washington, D.C., celebrating NATO’s 75th anniversary.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog completed the writing of a Torah scroll initiated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in early 2022, aimed at peace for Ukrainian Jews amidst war. This special Torah, embodying the Five Books of Moses in Hebrew, will soon be placed in a Kyiv synagogue. Initiated amid conflict in Ukraine, its completion coincides with current hostilities in Gaza. Involved in its creation were Ukrainian Jewish community members, including military personnel, and families affected by conflict from both nations. This act of unity and peace connects the leaders of the world’s only Jewish states, symbolizing hope and solidarity amidst adversity.
At the “Restoring Justice for Ukraine” conference, 44 nations signed a declaration to form a tribunal investigating Russian war crimes, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Dutch Foreign Minister Bruins Slot emphasized the necessity of holding Russia accountable for the invasion’s devastating impact, including mass casualties and displacement. The conference, attended by delegates from 57 countries and various international organizations, aimed to support Ukraine’s quest for justice through documentation, investigation, and prosecution of crimes. It also discussed using frozen Russian assets for reparations. The International Criminal Court, endorsing the effort, has already issued arrest warrants for top Russian figures, including President Putin. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba highlighted significant progress in establishing mechanisms for compensation and prosecuting crimes of aggression, underscoring the global commitment to ensuring justice for Ukraine.
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced plans to urge global allies to bolster Ukraine’s air defense capabilities during a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting on April 4. Amid heightened Russian attacks, Baerbock emphasized the urgent need for air defense to protect civilians and critical infrastructure. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for additional Patriot air defense systems, citing their effectiveness against Russian missiles. Kuleba also pressed for swift U.S. aid and discussed ongoing efforts to secure vital military support for Ukraine. The push for enhanced air defense comes as Ukraine faces dwindling ammunition amid stalled aid.
After the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Brussels, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the need for increased support to Ukraine as Russia strengthens its defense capabilities. Blinken pledged intensified efforts, including a bilateral security agreement, to provide essential resources to Kyiv. Discussions also centered on safeguarding aid from potential changes in U.S. leadership and transitioning the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to NATO oversight. Blinken reaffirmed NATO’s unwavering support for Ukraine, stating that Ukraine will eventually join the alliance. A NATO summit in Washington in July aims to further advance Ukraine’s path to NATO membership.
Bloomberg reported that a vote on Ukraine aid in Congress remains weeks away, contrary to previous expectations set by House Speaker Mike Johnson. Delays in aid, stalled since fall 2023, continue amid internal political disputes. Although a bipartisan Senate-approved $95 billion aid package exists, Johnson hasn’t brought it to a vote in the Republican-led House. Despite assurances from Johnson and a phone call with President Zelensky, the aid’s specifics remain unclear, causing further delay. The Biden administration rejected linking aid to liquefied natural gas export licenses. Ukraine’s warnings about the impact of delayed aid on the battlefield persist.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that Ukraine is addressing Hungary’s concerns regarding the rights of national minorities to unlock the eighth tranche of 500 million euros designated for the European Peace Facility (EPF). The EPF aims to support Ukraine with military aid. Hungary’s refusal to approve the tranche is linked to perceived oppression of Hungarian minorities in western Ukraine. Steps are being taken to resolve the issue, including establishing a special commission after meetings between Ukrainian and Hungarian officials. Ukraine’s language law has been a contentious issue, but recent legislative changes aim to address EU recommendations regarding minority rights.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar, occupied by Russia since March 2022 and Europe’s largest nuclear facility, experienced a disconnection from Ukraine’s energy grid due to Russian attacks. Energoatom reported that only one power line currently connects the plant to the grid, raising the risk of an emergency. The disconnection of this sole line could lead to a blackout, endangering the plant’s safe operation. All six reactors at the plant are shut down, yet its location in a conflict zone poses significant nuclear safety risks, as highlighted by the IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.
Russia News
Ukraine’s Armed Forces General Staff reported 670 casualties among Russian forces in the past day.
In a significant operation, over 40 drones were intercepted by Russian air defense in the Morozovsk district, Rostov Oblast, targeting a power substation and possibly a local airbase, though no casualties were reported. The attack, part of increased strikes on military and industrial sites within Russia, was unverified by Ukrainian officials. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that 53 Ukrainian drones were downed across several regions, including Rostov Oblast and Kursk, among others. Additionally, drone activity was reported near military bases in Engels and Yeysk, with local defenses claiming to repel these attacks. This escalation comes amid Ukraine’s use of long-range drones against Russian facilities, highlighting a strategic shift in the conflict’s dynamics.
Russian companies are struggling to repair oil refineries due to Western sanctions, with Ukrainian drone attacks exacerbating the issue. Ukrainian strikes have hit 12 Russian refineries, hindering repairs. The NORSI plant’s gasoline unit, attacked on March 12, remains unrepaired since January, as the sole repair expert, an American company, withdrew from Russia after the invasion. The attacks have reduced Russian gasoline production by 40%. Despite Russian claims of a quick recovery, the situation remains uncertain. Ukraine views targeting Russian oil facilities as self-defense.
Russian gas producer Novatek is contemplating downsizing a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) project due to Western sanctions. The Arctic LNG-2 project, where Novatek holds a 60% stake, faces setbacks after US sanctions froze foreign participation. Novatek is exploring shifting focus to its ice-free port project in Murmansk. This move could complicate Russia’s LNG market ambitions. However, Novatek’s Murmansk LNG project, set to surpass Arctic LNG-2 in scale, remains unaffected by ice constraints. Despite EU restrictions on equipment supply, buying Russian LNG remains unrestricted.
Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledges the country’s upcoming labor challenges due to the war’s impact and the necessity for modernization to address potential shortages. He suggested two solutions: increasing labor productivity or relying on foreign labor. This acknowledgment is a balancing act aimed at managing nationalist sentiments against migration while addressing economic realities. Putin’s comments indicate a potential openness to immigration to mitigate the war’s economic effects and maintain Russia’s workforce levels.
President Putin has stated that Russia’s economy is stable and not fully on a wartime footing, though he admits there is a focus on bolstering the defense industry. Despite claims of balance, a significant portion of Russia’s budget is dedicated to defense, indicating a gradual shift towards war economy. This mixed messaging seems to serve dual purposes: rallying domestic support for the war effort and maintaining a semblance of normalcy to prevent public unrest. There’s also Western concern over Russia’s capability to sustain long-term military operations.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
A senior NATO official, speaking to Vazhnye Istorii, indicated that there’s no evidence Russia is planning a significant new mobilization effort. They suggested President Putin might delay any large mobilization to address domestic issues and project strength. The official also noted Russia’s current military limitations, including a shortage of ammunition and maneuver units, hinting at a preference for a standard conscription cycle over another round of mobilization.
Following the March 22 Crocus City Hall incident, the Russian Ministry of Defense reports a surge in military contract signings, suggesting an uptick in recruitment across Moscow Oblast, Primorsky Krai, Vladivostok, and St. Petersburg. They highlighted over 800 new contracts in Moscow Oblast and over 500 in Vladivostok within just the past week and a half, noting significant increases compared to 2023’s total signings. This rise in enlistments could be influenced by the Kremlin’s narrative around the attack or may reflect a strategic push to boost recruitment numbers through informational campaigns.
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a new drone operator training program in Belgorod Oblast, with personnel able to qualify as operators after a month’s training. This initiative reflects ongoing efforts to modernize drone technology and tactics, incorporating frontline experiences from Ukraine to enhance the program’s effectiveness.
Bashkortostan’s Prime Minister, Andrei Nazarov, announced plans to boost anti-drone and electronic warfare production within a 13-company consortium to shield Russian industrial sites from Ukrainian drone attacks. This move responds to the growing threat of such strikes, emphasized by recent incidents in Tatarstan, urging local defenses against these aerial threats.
Russia’s Allies
Russia is engaging with Iran to secure weapons and crucial technology components, with Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin discussing military cooperation with Iranian Ambassador Kazem Jalali. This collaboration likely includes support for Russia’s use of Shahed drones.
During a Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) meeting in Moscow on April 4, Belarusian Major General Viktor Gulevich talked about advancing the Russian-Belarusian Unified Regional Air Defense System.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in a recent meeting with over 70 foreign ambassadors, dismissed Ukraine’s peace proposals while asserting Russia’s readiness to negotiate on its own terms, which favor the Kremlin’s interests. Lavrov’s statements, echoing similar remarks from Defense Minister Shoigu, seem to be part of a broader Russian tactic aimed at pressuring the West. Russia continues to blame Ukraine and Western nations for stalled peace talks, despite its own unwillingness to engage in sincere negotiations. This stance is seen as a ploy to push for concessions at the expense of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has reported a substantial increase in Russian disinformation and psychological operations targeting Ukrainian leaders and military officials. These efforts aim to undermine trust and spread false narratives about Ukraine’s government and military actions. In one month alone, Russia initiated over a thousand information attacks across various platforms. The attacks have included attempts to impersonate high-ranking officials like former commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and his successor, Oleksandr Syrskyi, by creating fake social media pages. The SBU’s cybersecurity team, led by Illia Vitiuk, who is also a target of these operations, has been working to counteract these threats and protect the integrity of Ukrainian official communications. This strategy involves the manipulation of facts mixed with disinformation to sow discord within Ukraine, as highlighted by a Kremlin task force focused on discrediting President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com