Summary of the day: Russian military operations continue to focus on making significant gains in Donetsk Oblast, with confirmed troop advances near Chasiv Yar and Donetsk City. The strategic offensive to seize Chasiv Yar is viewed as crucial, potentially enabling further assaults on key Ukrainian defensive cities like Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka. However, Ukrainian forces face increasing challenges due to shortages in artillery and air defense, exacerbated by delays in U.S. military assistance. In response to the escalating situation, Germany has stepped up to provide another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, aiming to bolster Ukrainian defenses against the intensifying Russian strikes. Meanwhile, Russia remains dependent on Chinese suppliers for critical components necessary for its defense industry.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Belgian prosecutors are investigating Russian interference in the upcoming June 2024 European Parliament election. Intelligence services in Belgium have identified pro-Russian networks active in Belgium and other European nations, aiming to support pro-Russian candidates. The Czech authorities have also uncovered instances of Kremlin-affiliated actors financially influencing European parliament members to endorse pro-Russian policies.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian military operations in Eastern Ukraine are intensifying, with a strategic focus on key regions like Lyman, Bakhmut, and Pokrovsk, despite not being mutually reinforcing. Weather favorable to tank maneuvers and a shortage in Ukrainian artillery and air defenses—aggravated by delayed U.S. military support—have worsened conditions, enabling Russian tactical gains. Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi has noted a significant deterioration on the eastern front, particularly due to increased Russian armored attacks. This has placed recent emphasis on the town of Chasiv Yar, permitting Russian forces to rotate and maintain continuous pressure on Ukrainian defenses. Amid an ammunition shortage and stalled U.S. aid, Ukraine is endeavoring to bolster its positions with electronic warfare and air defense, amidst increasing conflict intensity following Putin’s controversial re-election. Without sustained U.S. assistance, Ukrainian military officials, including President Zelensky, warn of a potentially weakening defense and underscore the urgent necessity for additional aid to avert defeat.
The Financial Times reports potential Russian plans for a major offensive in late spring or summer targeting areas in Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, with concerns over a possible attack on Kharkiv.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
There were ongoing skirmishes near Kreminna, with no significant shifts in the frontline. Battles were reported west of Kreminna near Terny and Torske, and to the south near Dibrova, Serebryanske forest, and Bilohorivka. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces were not on the offensive in the Kupyansk region.
There was ongoing positional combat in areas around Bakhmut, particularly northeast of the city. Clashes were also taking place east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske, southeast near Vyimka and Spirne, and to the south near Rozdolivka.
Russian troops have continued offensives southeast of Chasiv Yar, notably moving northwest of Klishchiivka and reaching the outskirts of Bohdanivka. Despite not establishing firm control and Ukrainian forces maintaining the settlement, Russian claims of progress towards Kalynivka and west of Ivanivske have surfaced, though not verified by ISW since April 4. Combat continues in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar, especially in the Novyi area and neighboring villages. As of April 13, Ukrainian Defense Ministry reports state that Russian forces have reached Bohdanivka’s outskirts. Despite Russian claims of occupation, Ukrainian control persists amid clashes.
Russian forces are intensifying their efforts to seize Chasiv Yar, a strategically located town in the Donetsk Oblast of eastern Ukraine. This offensive forms part of a broader strategy to secure key locations that would enable further advances into Ukrainian-held territories, particularly targeting the “fortress” cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka. The capture of Chasiv Yar is seen as pivotal for Russian military operations in the region.
Chasiv Yar’s geographical positioning makes it a critical juncture for Russian forces aiming to breach the Ukrainian defensive belt in Donetsk Oblast. Located approximately seven kilometers from Kostyantynivka and twenty kilometers from Druzhkivka, controlling Chasiv Yar would facilitate subsequent Russian operations aimed at these major defensive strongholds. Its capture is likely to enable Russian forces to disrupt Ukrainian lines of communication and logistics, significantly weakening Ukraine’s defensive posture in the region.
Despite the strategic importance, Russian forces face significant challenges in securing a decisive victory in Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces have established robust defensive positions, which are fortified and well-defended, slowing Russian progress. Moreover, the lack of operational support among different Russian units and the necessity for additional combat-effective reinforcements complicate the capture and subsequent control of the area.
The seizure of Chasiv Yar is expected to have far-reaching implications for the Ukrainian defense strategy in Donetsk Oblast. By potentially isolating Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, Russian forces could force a major realignment of Ukrainian defensive efforts, stretching their capabilities and possibly leading to a significant operational setback for Ukraine. However, the success of this operation largely depends on continued logistical and tactical challenges faced by Russian forces, including the need to secure additional territories for a comprehensive control over the region.
The battle for Chasiv Yar represents a critical moment in the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine, with significant strategic and operational stakes for both Russian and Ukrainian forces. The outcome of this campaign could dictate the pace and direction of future military engagements in Donetsk Oblast, impacting the overall stability and control of the region. As such, it remains a focal point of military efforts and international attention, highlighting the complex dynamics of the Ukrainian conflict.
Russian forces were active around Avdiivka, with unconfirmed reports of movements to the west and southwest but no verified frontline changes. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Pervomaiske was seized, which aligns with ISW’s assessment that the settlement was captured on April 9. Russian milbloggers suggest advancements on the outskirts of Novokalynove, Berdychi, and further within Semenivka, as well as south of Pervomaiske along the E-50 highway. There’s no visual confirmation from ISW on these claims. Clashes are ongoing in areas northwest, west, and southwest of Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled Russian mechanized assaults in the Avdiivka area and destroyed a number of Russian armored vehicles.
Recent movements by Russian forces suggest incremental progress west and southwest of Donetsk City. They continued their offensive, with footage showing advances on the southeastern edges of Krasnohorivka and north of Novomykhailivka. Skirmishes are ongoing in regions west of Donetsk City, including Heorhiivka and Krasnohorivka, and to the southwest near Novomykhailivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane.
In the area straddling the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border, there was ongoing positional combat. Near Velyka Novosilka, fights were reported around Staromayorske and Urozhaine. Russian milbloggers claim that Russian troops briefly entered Urozhaine but were later repelled by Ukrainian forces. Additional reports include a Russian operation that destroyed a bridge over the Mokri Yaly River northeast of Vremivka.
Skirmishes persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast without any changes to the frontline being verified. Near Robotyne, Russian milbloggers alleged gains along Silska Street and suggested Ukrainian forces were pushed back from positions near Verbove, now situated four kilometers away. These claims have not been visually confirmed by ISW. Ukrainian spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk reported that Russian forces are probing Ukrainian strength near Robotyne and Verbove but haven’t secured lasting footholds.
There was ongoing positional combat near Krynky on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of at least four people and the injuries of at least 9 others:
- A Russian attack on Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast injured two people. Strikes hit the city center, causing damage and fires in residential buildings. A 62-year-old man was rescued from the rubble and hospitalized, while 73-year-old man sustained injuries elsewhere in the city. The extent of his injuries remains unspecified.
- Russian troops fired on a civilian car in Chernihiv Oblast, resulting in the death of the driver, a man born in 1990. The incident occurred in Novhorod-Siverskyi district during a morning attack, causing the car to catch fire. The driver, who was en route to deliver food to border villages, sustained fatal injuries.
- Russian forces attacked an ambulance in Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, injuring the 58-year-old driver with an explosive dropped from a first-person-view drone. The ambulance was en route to Petropavlivka at the time of the attack.
- Russian forces attacked multiple settlements in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the deaths of at least three civilians and injuring four others. The attacks targeted residential areas in Pokrovsk and Volnovakha communities.
- A five-story residential building in Ocheretyne collapsed after being hit by a Russian KAB-500 guided bomb. One injured woman was rescued, but the rescue operation was stopped due to security concerns. Additionally, a 90-year-old woman was injured in her backyard during the attack.
- Russian artillery struck Krasnohorivka and Bohoiavlenka, injuring two civilians.
- Russian attacks injured two civilians in Hulyaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The shelling hit their home, causing injuries that required hospitalization. Additionally, a house and outbuildings were damaged in the attack.
- Russian forces launched 21 attacks on 10 communities along the Sumy Oblast border, causing 118 explosions, according to the regional military administration. The attacks included artillery, mortars, missiles, drones, grenade launchers, and guided bombs. Bilopillia and Seredyna-Buda were the hardest hit, each experiencing 26 explosions, while the Sver community faced two guided bomb attacks. No casualties or civilian infrastructure damage were reported.
Rescue workers at the scene of a Russian attack on the Kharkiv Oblast city of Kupiansk
A five-story apartment block collapsed in Ocheretyne after it was struck by a Russian KAB-500 bomb
A fireman extinguishing the fire at a destroyed house in Hulyaipole
Ukraine News
Former U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a belief that Ukraine should be part of Russia, according to his former advisor Fiona Hill. Trump allegedly suggested pressuring Ukraine to cede Crimea and Donbas to Moscow to end the conflict, a claim denied by his advisor. Trump, now a potential 2024 presidential candidate, has claimed he could end the war swiftly if elected, though specifics remain unclear. Hill asserted Trump struggled to see Ukraine as independent, aligning with Russian President Putin’s views. Some Republican lawmakers close to Trump oppose additional aid to Kyiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Zelensky rejects territorial concessions but warns of potential defeat without more support from Congress.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Drone deliveries to Ukraine’s front lines in 2024 have tripled compared to last year, according to Deputy Commander-in-Chief Vadym Sukharevskyi. While the exact number wasn’t disclosed, domestic and imported drones play a crucial role in the conflict. Ukraine aims to confront Russian forces with drones this year, alongside strengthening existing capabilities. Most drones are locally made, with plans to produce 1 million annually. Maritime drones used against Russia’s Black Sea Fleet will deploy in the Azov Sea soon. Ukraine targets Russian oil industry with drone strikes, hitting facilities over 1,200 kilometers inside Russia. President Zelensky established a dedicated drone branch in the Armed Forces. With production capacity growing, Ukraine aims for 2 million drones by year-end.
Ukraine’s Allies
Germany has pledged to send another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, urgently requested for increased protection against the intensifying Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid and critical infrastructure. In response to the damage inflicted on Ukraine’s energy systems and the escalated need for robust air defenses, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has declared immediate support, with delivery to be expedited. President Zelensky has praised this gesture and urged other nations to follow suit. Ukraine’s goal is to secure 25 Patriot systems for comprehensive coverage but is presently striving to acquire seven to defend its major cities, alongside efforts to obtain two additional Patriot batteries and a SAMP/T anti-aircraft missile battery. Germany’s commitment marks a significant increase in support, establishing the country as Ukraine’s second-largest military donor through considerable financial contributions.
The US and UK have imposed new sanctions to weaken Russia’s war funding by banning the import of Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel. These sanctions also restrict the trading of these metals on international exchanges and over-the-counter markets.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a Storm Shadow missile strike on the Luhansk Machine Building Plant in Luhansk City, with visual evidence confirming a smoke plume and fires near the facility. Russian officials acknowledged the attack and mentioned the imminent reopening of the plant. The Moscow-appointed leader of Luhansk, Leonid Pasechnik, also reported the incident, attributing it to Ukrainian forces and alleging injuries to three individuals. Ukrainian authorities have not yet commented on these allegations. This event adds to previous strikes on military targets and infrastructure in Russian-controlled areas, where Ukraine has utilized long-range missiles from both the U.S. and U.K., targeting facilities such as airfields and oil storage sites.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) achieved a cold shutdown for all six reactors, improving overall safety, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Cold shutdown provides additional safety in case of accidents. Despite recent attacks on ZNPP, attributed to Russian strikes, Ukraine denies involvement. However, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi warned of ongoing safety risks at the plant under Russian occupation since March 2022.
Russia News
Tajikistan’s Foreign Minister, Sirojiddin Muhriddin, condemned the alleged torture of suspects detained in connection to a terrorist attack in Moscow during a meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The attack, carried out by gunmen at the Crocus City Hall in Krasnogorsk, resulted in at least 144 deaths, with ISIS claiming responsibility. Russian authorities detained 11 suspects, predominantly Tajik nationals, with four accused of direct involvement. Videos and images circulated on Russian social media showed signs of abuse on the four Tajik suspects. Muhriddin denounced torture and emphasized the unreliability of confessions obtained through such means. The incident sparked xenophobic reactions, leading to fears among Central Asians in Russia. Muhriddin expressed concern over the negative perception of Tajik citizens and emphasized their significant presence in Russia’s workforce, contributing to Tajikistan’s economy.
Russia’s Allies
Bloomberg reveals that Russia depends heavily on Chinese firms for critical components used in weapon production, including machine tool parts and microelectronics, with 70% of machine tool imports and 90% of microelectronic imports sourced from China in late 2023. While there’s no indication of China supplying lethal aid directly, Russia’s defense industry relies significantly on these imports. Additionally, Chinese companies are reportedly involved in drone production within Russia. The imports, which include a variety of items essential for military equipment and munitions, are a stopgap measure for Russia as it seeks to develop its own production capabilities amidst Western sanctions.
Russian Narrative and Propaganda
Kremlin spokespeople, including Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry, persist in accusing the West and Ukraine of funding terrorist activities in Russia and other locations for an extended period, with recent statements following the Crocus City Hall incident.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com