Summary of the day: Ukrainian forces have made strategic advances in the south of Kreminna and southwest of Donetsk City, though Russian forces have also captured areas near Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka, indicating a seesaw battle as each side gains and loses ground.
What Can I Do To Help Ukraine? This is a question I receive all the time. We at Transform Ukraine are building longer-term housing for internally displaced Ukrainians. Visit Rebuild Ukraine for how you can assist in housing a Ukrainian family displaced by the war.
Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry condemned Iran’s significant overnight assault on Israel, warning of potential regional escalation and describing the strike as reckless. The ministry’s stance is to prevent broader conflict, while Israel’s Defense Forces reported that Iran’s attack included 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles, mostly intercepted with only minor damage caused by a few that entered Israeli airspace. The attack responded to Israel’s earlier strike on an Iranian position in Syria, which was itself a counteraction to Iranian-backed aggression. In the U.S., legislation to support Israel is on the table, with a possible amalgamation of aid for Israel and Ukraine under discussion. The defense aid from the U.S., France, and the U.K., alongside Jordan’s support, was crucial during Israel’s missile interception efforts.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) justified the Iranian missile strikes on Israel as self-defense, framing them as a response to an Israeli strike on Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials in Damascus. This rationale is echoed by Russian official communications and media. Concurrently, some Russian military bloggers are suggesting that the Middle East focus could shift Western attention and aid away from Ukraine. These events are part of Russia’s broader strategic narrative, possibly aiming to use the Middle East situation to influence the Ukrainian conflict to its advantage.
According to a poll reported by Le Parisien, over half of young French citizens aged 18 to 25 would be willing to fight in Ukraine if it were necessary to defend France. The survey, conducted by France’s Institute for Strategic Studies of the Military School and the General Directorate for International Relations and Strategy, found that 51% of respondents might fight, with 17% definitely agreeing and 34% leaning towards agreement. This sentiment is stronger among younger French people, with 31% supporting the deployment of French troops to Ukraine, compared to just 17% of those over 50. Concerns about nuclear conflict are also significant, with 69% fearing a nuclear war and nearly half considering the use of nuclear weapons acceptable in major wars. Amidst these findings, French President Emmanuel Macron has described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “existential” for Europe, and although Ukraine has not requested Western combat troops, it continues to seek more military aid.
NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana stated that Ukraine will eventually join NATO, provided it meets certain political conditions. He noted that Ukraine is progressively aligning with NATO standards but did not specify a timeline for membership. The prerequisites for joining include a robust military, democracy, and economy. Despite some nuances in support from member countries like Hungary and Slovakia, Geoana emphasized a general consensus among the 32 NATO members on supporting Ukraine and strengthening their own defense.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Kreminna, near Bilohorivka, as confirmed by footage. Meanwhile, a Russian milblogger reported a small advancement by Russian troops on the eastern outskirts of Terny, west of Kreminna, though this claim lacks visual confirmation.
The Ukrainian Air Force acknowledged a successful strike by their pilots on a Russian military target in occupied Luhansk Oblast the previous day. The target was a control post, hit with Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. Ukrainian officials emphasized the need for more long-range missiles to continue such operations. Russian sources indicated that the strike was directed at the Luhansk Machine Building Plant in Luhansk City.
The Russian military is restructuring, dividing the Western Military District into the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, which affects troop deployments in Ukraine. This reorganization assigns specific army units to new districts, with the Leningrad district controlling forces along the Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod border, and the Moscow district overseeing the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna front. These changes could shift Russian military focus and potentially impact the effectiveness and command clarity of operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, possibly setting the stage for future operations towards Kharkiv City.
Positional battles occurred in several areas around Bakhmut and Siversk. These engagements were reported northeast of Bakhmut, as well as east, southeast, and south of Siversk, specifically near the towns of Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, Spirne, Vesele, and Rozdolivka.
Russian forces achieved advancements east of Chasiv Yar, including northeast near the Kanal Microraion and southeast along a windbreak. No visual confirmation is available for reported advancements north of Ivanivske. Continuous fighting is reported in multiple areas around Chasiv Yar, with Ukrainian forces facing near-constant small group assaults.
The Russian military’s commitment to seizing Chasiv Yar by May 9 is set against the backdrop of Russia’s Victory Day and indicates a strategic move to propel their forces further into the Kramatorsk region. The efforts to capture this pivotal town reflect an escalated push in Russian military offensives, particularly since the re-election of President Vladimir Putin. Despite the town’s population declining to around 800 amidst the conflict, Ukrainian forces, under the leadership of Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, are staunchly holding their defensive lines against relentless Russian attacks. With Chasiv Yar’s position being instrumental to Russia’s advance towards key cities including Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, the urgency of the offensive suggests a more aggressive strategy compared to earlier operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Currently, Russian troops have made it only to the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, but the Russian command remains optimistic. This optimism might be partly due to the pressing shortages in Ukrainian artillery and air defenses, signaling a potentially swift advancement, at a more rapid pace than in previous military campaigns.
Russian forces made progress west of Avdiivka, specifically advancing east of Novobakhmutivka. Additional claims of advancement towards Yasnobrodivka by Russian milbloggers lack visual proof. Intense fighting continues in various areas around Avdiivka including Novobakhmutivka, Novokalynove, and Berdychi to the northwest; Semenivka, Umanske, and Tonenke to the west; and Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Nevelske to the southwest.
Ukrainian forces made a slight advance southwest of Donetsk City, particularly along Timiryazeva Street in Novomykhailivka. Meanwhile, Russian forces are reported to have pushed west along Tsentralna Street in the same area, though this has not been visually confirmed. Ongoing positional clashes continue west of Donetsk City, particularly near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka.
Positional battles persisted in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, particularly south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske and Urozhaine. According to Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command, Russian forces are actively rotating units along the frontline from Kamianske to Vuhledar and shifting their focus east towards Velyka Novosilka. She noted an increase in Russian assaults in the Velyka Novosilka area, with a reduction near Robotyne, and mentioned that Russian forces are not employing armored vehicles in these assaults.
Positional fighting persisted near Robotyne and northwest of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense has dismissed the commander of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment near Robotyne who has been unsuccessful in recapturing Robotyne.
Positional fighting persisted in the east bank of Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky. The MoD dismissed the commander of the 18th Combined Arms Army near Krynky who has been unsuccessful in pushing Ukrainian forces out of Krynky.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the death of 5 people and the injuries of 25 others:
- Russian artillery targeted seven communities in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, resulting in one casualty and at least 76 explosions. The village of Krasnopillia, where the fatality occurred, experienced intense shelling with 26 explosions. Other areas affected include Khotin, Yunakivka, Bilopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Esman, and Seredyna-Buda, which faced a barrage of artillery, missiles, drones, mortars, and mines.
- Russian assaults on Kherson Oblast throughout the morning have caused damage to ports, a preschool, and homes, with 17 settlements and Kherson city targeted, resulting in five injuries. Residential damage included a multi-story building and 17 houses.
- Later in the day, a drone attack by Russian forces struck the village of Odradokamyanka in Kherson Oblast, injuring two civilians, a man and a woman. This incident is part of daily drone assaults by Russian troops on civilian areas in Kherson Oblast. Attacks across the region have injured five people, affected 17 settlements, and the city of Kherson, targeting ports, a preschool, and residential buildings.
- The city of Dnipro was struck by a Russian cruise missile, resulting in damage to nine homes and injuries to 12 individuals, including a teenage boy. Additionally, the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast experienced 11 Russian attacks, with four people injured. The Governor mentioned attacks with artillery and drones on peaceful areas.
- Russian forces attacked a village in Donetsk Oblast with an aerial bomb, resulting in one fatality and two injuries. The incident damaged a building in Ocheretyne, a short drive from Avdiivka. The escalation in Eastern Ukraine’s fighting has prompted local authorities to urge civilians to evacuate the region for their safety.
- In Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian strike on the village of Vesele resulted in the deaths of two civilians and the destruction of a house. Overnight, Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted 10 Shahed drones in the region.
The aftermath of the Russian attack on Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
The five-story residential building struck by a Russian aerial bomb attack in Ocheretyne
Destroyed house in Vesele
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile and drone attacks against Ukraine. In the morning, ten Shahed drones, launched from Kursk Oblast, were intercepted over Kharkiv Oblast by Ukrainian forces. Additionally, four missiles from the S-300/S-400 systems, launched from occupied Donetsk Oblast, struck Selydove, Donetsk Oblast, along with a D-30 guided bomb. In Kharkiv City, critical infrastructure was hit by at least two Shahed drones. Later in the day, Ukrainian forces in the Southern Operational Command destroyed two Russian Kh-59 cruise missiles aimed at Odesa City.
In his evening address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted the ongoing challenges Ukraine faces due to limited military aid and the evasion of sanctions against Russia. He emphasized that the missiles used against Ukraine contain critical components, such as electronics and chips, that are supplied by companies from other countries and smuggled through Russia’s neighbors. Zelensky called for an end to the global tolerance of terror and the facilitation of Russian military efforts. He criticized the delays in U.S. military aid, attributing them to legislative disagreements over border security and opposition from some U.S. lawmakers, which have exacerbated Ukraine’s ammunition shortage. Furthermore, Zelensky described the current situation on the front lines in Ukraine as increasingly difficult, particularly near Russian-occupied Donetsk.
Ukraine’s Allies
Lithuania is set to provide 400,000 euros to aid Ukraine, focusing on supplying metal detectors for schools and supporting the rehabilitation of Ukrainian soldiers. This announcement came during a meeting in Lviv between Ukraine’s Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko and his Baltic counterparts, amid discussions on security issues due to increasing Russian attacks.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
Ukrainian officials have raised concerns about a potential false flag operation by Russian forces at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), where Russia has accused Ukraine of drone strikes. The Ukrainian General Staff, citing intelligence reports, warned of possible provocations at the ZNPP that could be falsely attributed to Ukrainian forces. These allegations come amidst Russian efforts to use the threat of a radiological incident at the plant to influence international negotiations and legitimize their control of the area.
Russia News
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported 890 Russian military casualties within the previous day.
Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that it had shot down 10 Ukrainian drones over Krasnodar Krai, a region near occupied Crimea. The incident reportedly occurred early in the morning, but there has been no confirmation from Kyiv regarding the event. In recent months, there have been reports of Ukraine targeting Russian facilities with drone attacks, especially in areas close to their border. The Russian ministry also claimed to have intercepted drones over Rostov Oblast and Belgorod Oblast in recent days, with a Gazprom building in Belgorod allegedly being damaged. These specific incidents have not been independently verified.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com