President Zelensky Signs Mobilization Bill Lowering Conscription Age from 27 to 25 – Day 783 (April 16 2024)

Summary of the day: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the critical shortages in air defense and artillery that are hindering Ukraine’s ability to counter Russian strikes and ground assaults, prompting him to sign a new mobilization law to strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities. Meanwhile, despite morale issues within their ranks, Russian forces continue to make tactical advances and maintain pressure in eastern Ukraine. On the international stage, discussions between Chinese President Xi Jinping and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz underscored China’s complex position regarding the conflict, positioning Xi as a neutral mediator while reports suggest Chinese support for Russia.

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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War

In a recent call with Iranian President Raisi, Russian President Putin called for restraint between Israel and Iran. This follows a significant Iranian missile and drone strike that Russia characterizes as a limited retaliatory response to an Israeli strike in Damascus. While Iran communicates a lack of interest in escalation, contrasting statements suggest a readiness to intensify responses to Israel if provoked. Russia continues to rhetorically support Iran’s actions while encouraging de-escalation in the region.

Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine

Russian troops in eastern Ukraine are conducting smaller, vehicle-supported ground assaults amid morale problems, while Ukraine’s drone strikes claim to have disabled many Russian armored vehicles. Despite low morale and the use of force to keep Russian soldiers from retreating, Ukraine’s own material deficits may hinder its defense capabilities. The situation suggests that Ukraine’s ability to withstand assaults is compromised by shortages, potentially giving Russia an advantage despite its own challenges.

A Russian military instructor recommends increasing guided glide bomb strikes to exploit Ukrainian shortages in defense systems. He asserts that Ukrainian forces struggle to counter such strikes, which have already been effective in recent Russian operations. The suggestion is to better coordinate these strikes with ground offensives and to enhance reconnaissance drone activity, which has been made easier due to Ukraine’s reduced air defenses. The success of glide bomb strikes in past advances like the seizure of Avdiivka supports this tactic for current Russian offensives.

According to Bloomberg, Western officials doubt Russia can attack Kharkiv without significant troop reinforcements. Despite earlier attempts, Russia hasn’t captured Kharkiv. President Zelensky warned of a potential offensive in late May or June. While reports suggest Russia might target Kharkiv, Ukrainian intelligence claims it’s a psychological tactic. Bloomberg states Russia aims to cripple Kharkiv’s infrastructure, making it uninhabitable. Mayor Terekhov estimates over $10 billion is needed for rebuilding. He also notes Russia’s intent to displace civilians, despite Kharkiv’s improved situation since the war’s start.

A map of ukraine with red and blue areas

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Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia

Russian troops engaged in continued ground operations west of Kreminna, with ongoing skirmishes reported in several nearby areas. However, there were no significant shifts in front-line positions. The Ukrainian military noted no major offensive actions in the Kupyansk direction, and despite a Russian blogger’s claim of gains north of Terny, there is no verified evidence of such advances.

In the Siversk area, northeast of Bakhmut, fighting did not alter the front lines. Russian attempts to attack in the regions east and southeast of Siversk, including near Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne, were reported as unsuccessful. Various Russian military units are active in these areas, but no significant territorial gains were made.

Ukrainian forces maintain positions near Chasiv Yar despite Russian drone strikes in the area. Unverified reports suggest minor advances by Russian forces around Chasiv Yar’s outskirts, with Ukrainian counterattacks near Bohdanivka. Russian airborne units are reported to be active in the region, with ongoing skirmishes southeast of Chasiv Yar, yet no significant changes in control have been confirmed.

Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on Chasiv Yar, a key location in Donetsk Oblast, after taking nearby Avdiivka. If Russia captures Chasiv Yar, it will be poised to advance on several other Ukrainian cities. According to Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia Group of Forces, the capture would also serve Russian propaganda goals, aiming for a victory by May 9, Russia’s WWII Victory Day. Currently, around 800 residents remain in the city, amidst conflicting reports about Russian troops entering the area.

Ukrainian forces have reclaimed some areas around Avdiivka, with footage showing activity in Pervomaiske and north of Berdychi. While Russian claims of territorial gains in several locations near Avdiivka exist, there’s no visual confirmation of these. The situation is characterized by ongoing clashes in various sectors, and specific Russian military units are identified in the vicinity.

Russian forces have made territorial advances in areas west and southwest of Donetsk City, with footage showing progression in Solodke, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka. Claims of capturing key buildings in Krasnohorivka are supported by reports of Russian military units actively engaging in the area with helicopter missile support. Ongoing skirmishes are reported near several localities around Donetsk City, with various Russian military units identified in these operations.

Russian troops launched attacks near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia regional border, targeting areas south and southwest of Velyka Novosilka, including near Staromayorske and north of Pryyutne, with no confirmed territorial gains reported.

Russian military units have made progress in western Zaporizhia Oblast, with documented movement in Robotyne. Ongoing clashes were reported in nearby areas, including Bilohirya and Verbove.

There were ongoing skirmishes near Krynky, where a Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian forces had extended their territory westward by 500 meters after a Russian unit retreated. The same source claimed a minor advance by Russian forces in central Krynky, though these movements lack visual confirmation. Additionally, Ukrainian officials noted an increase in Russian missile strikes from the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, with guided glide bomb strikes targeting Kherson Oblast, specifically a recent strike on Beryslav.

Ukrainian Victims Of War

In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the injury of one person:

  • Russian forces launched 35 attacks on 13 communities in Sumy Oblast, northeastern Ukraine. At least 218 explosions were reported, with one civilian injured in Yampil. The assaults involved mortar, artillery, grenade launcher, missile, and drone attacks, affecting border communities like Krasnopillia, with approximately 7,700 residents.

Ukraine News

Russian forces launched a smaller-than-usual drone attack from Crimea, targeting multiple Ukrainian regions. The Ukrainian Air Force successfully intercepted all nine drones over Kherson, Mykolaiv, Khmelnitsky, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Dnipropetrovsk.

In a PBS interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conveyed the acute challenges facing Ukraine’s defense, citing the Trypillya thermal power plant’s destruction by Russian missiles after Ukraine exhausted its missile defenses. Zelensky highlighted the urgent shortage of defensive missiles and called for greater support from allies. He conveyed frustration over inconsistent U.S. military aid and the artillery disparity with Russia, emphasizing that Russia’s superiority in artillery and aircraft—outnumbering Ukraine 10:1 in artillery shells and 30:1 in aircraft—enables significant damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and forces. Zelensky underscored the crucial need for enhanced U.S. support to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses and ensure effective resistance against Russian advances, pointing to the risk of defeat without increased military aid and stressing the urgent need for parity in resources to defend Ukrainian territory.

President Zelensky announced Ukraine’s plan to request a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting for air defense discussions amid increased Russian aerial attacks. Comparing threats, he highlighted Iran’s recent massive drone assault on Israel. Zelensky emphasized the need for equal protection of lives and urged Western support akin to their defense of Israel. Recent Russian strikes targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, escalating the need for air defense systems. Ukraine seeks 25 Patriot air defense systems for comprehensive coverage against Russian threats.

Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov is the new commander of the Southern Operational Command’s forces, replacing Andrii Kovalchuk. This change aligns with broader shifts in Ukraine’s military leadership. Shapovalov, born in 1978, brings experience commanding the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade. Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk appointed him during a ceremony on April 16. Previously, General Volodymyr Shvediuk was appointed commander of the Western Operational Command.

The IMF forecasts Ukraine’s GDP growth at 3.2% in 2024 and up to 6.5% in 2025 despite ongoing conflict. Last year, Ukraine’s GDP fell by 29.1% due to the invasion but stabilized in 2023 with government programs and international aid. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 6.4% in 2024 and 7.6% in 2025, with a slight decrease in unemployment. Ukraine seeks $3 billion monthly aid, receiving $42.5 billion last year, but U.S. assistance delays pose uncertainty.

At a meeting in Bucharest, Romania, the Ukrainian World Congress (UWC), the largest Ukrainian advocacy group, highlighted the plight of Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Russia. Attended by President Volodymyr Zelensky and community organizers from around the world, UWC President Taras Grod urged global efforts to secure the release of captives from Mariupol, detained since the city’s capture early in the 2022 invasion. Ukrainian Colonel Denys Propokenko reported that 900 military personnel and others from Mariupol remain imprisoned.

Ukraine has nearly 37,000 missing people, including children, civilians, and military personnel, as reported by Ukraine’s Chief Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets. Of the 1,700 individuals confirmed as illegally detained by Russia, only 147 have been returned. The Children of War database additionally records over 19,500 deported or displaced children. Lubinets emphasized the ongoing efforts to secure the release of these individuals and noted the establishment of an international platform aimed at this purpose. The U.N. reports nearly 11,000 civilian deaths and over 20,500 injuries since the conflict’s escalation, with actual figures potentially higher due to restricted monitoring in heavily affected areas like Mariupol.

Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna stated that the EU might offer a negotiation plan for Ukraine to join in June. She’s in Brussels this week, expressing optimism about upcoming talks. The EU wants Ukraine to make key reforms, especially in the legal system, before joining. Ukraine claims to have met these requirements. The EU has proposed a negotiation plan. Talks aim for Ukraine’s EU membership by 2030, though efforts may speed up the process.

Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky enacted a new law, passed by the Verkhovna Rada on April 11, to bolster the country’s military strength amid ongoing conflict, by lowering the draft age from 27 to 25 and requiring expatriates to register for service, addressing critical manpower shortages and aiming to enhance both defensive and offensive capabilities. This legislation is a pivotal move for updating Ukraine’s mobilization processes and will come into effect in 2024, incorporating key changes such as the establishment of an electronic conscription register and instituting stricter penalties for draft evasion, including the loss of certain civil privileges. Furthermore, the law secures rights for disabled soldiers and those returning from captivity by allowing them discharge options and mandating medical checks for those who were previously exempt. The previously existing provision that permitted soldiers to demobilize after 36 months has been eliminated and is set to be reviewed separately, indicating that the success of Ukrainian forces is now closely linked to the effectiveness of this new mobilization and the continued support from Western military allies.

Ukrainian engineers at Highland Systems, a company registered in the United Arab Emirates, have developed a new submarine called the Kronos. This submarine, capable of carrying ten passengers, can travel at a speed of 50 kilometers per hour and fire torpedoes. Notably, it operates silently and features an innovative hull design that reduces fuel consumption. The manufacturer has recently completed tests for its use in warfare.

Ukraine’s Allies

Latvia will send its first batch of drones to Ukraine under a Latvian-led coalition. Amid Russia’s intensified drone strikes, this aid is crucial for Ukraine, facing weapons shortages. The coalition includes over 20 countries, with Latvia planning significant yearly funding. Other nations like Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, and Lithuania are also providing drone support. Ukraine aims to boost domestic drone production, targeting 1 million drones by 2024.

PACE unanimously approved a resolution to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s reconstruction. About $300 billion in assets were frozen by Western allies at the start of Russia’s invasion. While the U.S. favors direct funding for Kyiv, the EU is considering using asset profits for defense assistance. PACE emphasized Russia’s obligation to compensate for damages. Ukraine’s parliament chair urged decisive action against Russian aggression. The resolution aims to support Kyiv’s reconstruction efforts, projected to cost $486 billion over a decade.

The White House views House Speaker Mike Johnson’s proposal for foreign aid bills positively, including aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. This contrasts with earlier statements questioning standalone aid for Israel. The Senate passed a $95 billion aid bill in February, but Johnson plans separate bills. While Democrats and Republicans differ on the approach, there’s urgency to provide aid, especially for Ukraine, amidst battlefield losses and escalating Russian assaults.

Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi highlighted that recent drone strikes on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant did not cause significant damage but posed a serious risk to nuclear safety. The April 7 strikes are seen as a dangerous precedent, increasing safety concerns for the facility.

Russian officials are intensifying efforts to integrate Russian history into the curriculum of schools in occupied Ukrainian territories. A recent decree from the Russian Ministry of Education mandates an increase in history teaching hours, starting September 2025, to promote Russian historical perspectives. In Kherson Oblast, this change is described by occupation authorities as a way to correct “perverted values” and replace Ukrainian historical narratives with Russian viewpoints, which they acknowledge as a significant propagandistic tool. The Ukrainian Resistance Center has condemned these educational adjustments as attempts to rewrite Ukrainian history in line with Russian propaganda.

The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC), supported by Kremlin, is intensifying its control over religious institutions in occupied areas of Ukraine, particularly in Zaporizhia Oblast. The regional occupation governor recently praised the ROC’s takeover of parishes and monasteries in Melitopol, Enerhodar, and across Zaporizhia. This follows the appointment of Bishop Theodore as the head of the newly ROC-controlled dioceses in Berdyansk and Prymorsk. The ROC’s efforts are part of a broader strategy to dominate Orthodox Christianity in these regions and suppress religious minorities.

Russia News

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) has successfully disabled a second Russian Nebo-U radar system, this time in the Bryansk region, which was instrumental in surveilling Ukrainian airspace up to 700 kilometers away and assisting Russian bombers in targeting activities near the border. The operation, which involved seven kamikaze drones, impairs Russia’s ability to monitor air activities along Ukraine’s northern frontier, thereby bolstering Ukrainian defense capabilities.

A Ukrainian man, referred to as Mr. M for security reasons, has filed a torture complaint in Argentina against Russian forces, as announced by The Reckoning Project (TRP), an NGO focused on war crimes. The complaint, filed in Buenos Aires on April 15, utilizes Argentina’s jurisdiction over international crimes. This marks the first Ukrainian torture case in Argentina. Over 128,000 war crime victims have been documented in Ukraine as of March 2024. Argentina, familiar with addressing its own history of the “Dirty War” abuses, is considered a supportive venue for such international legal actions. The Argentinian court will review the complaint, a process expected to extend over several months.

Russia’s media regulator, Roskomnadzor, is considering a ban on TikTok after a professional association appealed, citing non-compliance with Russian data laws. TikTok, which stopped allowing Russian users to post new content since March 2022, might have violated regulations requiring Russian user data to be stored in Russia. The potential ban is being debated until May 8, and if implemented, could shift users to Russian social networks, impacting both content creators and the platform’s availability in Russia.

Bloomberg reports that nearly 40% of Rusal’s sales, Russia’s top aluminum producer, are at risk due to U.S. and U.K. sanctions. These bans affect new Russian metals supplies to global exchanges like the London Metal Exchange. Rusal estimates 1.5 million metric tons of sales could be impacted, prompting potential production cuts akin to the 2008 financial crisis. Despite previous views, sanctions on Russian metal production could have a broader supply chain impact.

Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base

Russian President Putin has moved to consolidate control over the Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz forces by integrating their leadership into the Russian Ministry of Defense. Apty Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat forces, was appointed to a high-ranking position within the MoD, which oversees the military’s adherence to Russian political ideology. This shift on the 15th anniversary of Russia’s declared victory in Chechnya signifies an effort to keep the expanding Chechen forces under Kremlin authority and streamline the Russian military’s command structure. This comes amid Kadyrov’s growing influence, which the Kremlin seems intent on reining in by formalizing control over independent military units like the Akhmat Spetsnaz.

The Republic of Tatarstan is developing a new youth employment program aimed at allowing minors aged 14 and older to work in the Russian defense industrial base (DIB), particularly targeting teens from challenging social backgrounds. This initiative, reported by Kommersant, is seen as a move to address personnel shortages in the defense sector. Previously, proposals to allow minors to work under hazardous conditions were delayed due to criticism. Notably, the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, which includes a drone production facility, has already seen involvement from college students.

Russia’s Allies

During their meeting in Beijing, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged Chinese President Xi Jinping to press Russia to end the war in Ukraine, emphasizing China’s influence on Moscow. Xi, in turn, outlined four points for restoring peace in Ukraine, suggesting a neutral stance despite reports of China’s support for Russia. These proposals focus on maintaining global stability and economic interests without taking sides, reflecting China’s aim to balance its relations with Russia and access to Western markets. Scholz and Xi also discussed promoting peace conferences, with Xi proposing principles for conflict resolution. Despite concerns raised about China’s support for Russia, Beijing asserts its right to continue cooperation with Moscow.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has approved a new space project in collaboration with Russia, set to run from 2024 to 2028. This initiative will send a Belarusian-Russian spacecraft with ultra-high-resolution capabilities into orbit for at least seven years, aiming to enhance Belarus’s capacity to gather space information and reinforce its reputation as a space and high-tech leader.

Russian Narratives and Propaganda

The Russian UN Representative, Vasily Nebenzya, accused Ukraine of jeopardizing the security of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). While expressing gratitude for the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) condemnation of recent drone strikes near the ZNPP, Nebenzya overlooked that the IAEA did not specifically blame any party. Concurrently, Ukrainian officials have suggested that Russia might stage a false flag operation at the ZNPP to influence international negotiations and seek legitimacy for its control over the plant and the occupied Ukrainian territory.

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev has baselessly linked Ukraine to alleged “sabotage and terrorist” acts within Russia as a tactic to discourage Western military support for Ukraine. Amid these claims, Patrushev has announced heightened security measures in Russia’s Northwestern Federal District in response to these purported threats. Russian officials have also inaccurately associated Ukraine with the Crocus City Hall attack and other incidents, although there is no evidence implicating Ukraine. The real focus of Russian counterterrorism efforts is likely on internal threats from Central Asian and Muslim communities, rather than external ones from Ukraine.

Source Materials

Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com

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