Summary of the day: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has indicated plans for a significant Russian offensive targeting Kharkiv City, marking the first explicit acknowledgment of the city as a potential target after Ukrainian warnings of an upcoming assault in Summer 2024. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated enhanced defensive capabilities by downing a Russian aircraft during missile strikes, a first in the ongoing conflict. Despite these advances, Ukrainian air defenses remain compromised, limiting their ability to fully secure airspace. Amidst these developments, President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for increased Western military support as Ukrainian forces face constraints, notably due to delays in U.S. assistance.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
The Russian Ministry of Defense is expanding the Leningrad Military District as it prepares for potential conflict with NATO. A new missile brigade equipped with Iskander-M ballistic systems has been established in Karelia, part of a larger army corps development in the district. This move is a response to Finland joining NATO and aims to bolster Russia’s military presence along its western border. Additionally, Russian leaders are portraying the Ukraine conflict as part of a broader existential struggle with the West, to support a prolonged Russian military campaign.
Pro-Russian forces in Moldova, including Gagauzia’s leadership, are pushing for the Russian language to have special status, which Moldova’s government opposes. This action and statements from Russian officials suggest a strategy to frame Moldova as anti-Russian and justify potential Russian interventions. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has compared Moldova’s situation to Ukraine and Armenia, criticizing their Western leanings and implying threats over potential NATO ties. This rhetoric aims to undermine Moldova’s government and its EU aspirations.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the detention of a Belarusian individual suspected of orchestrating, on behalf of Moscow, an attack against Leonid Volkov, an ally of the late Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny. Two Poles, accused of carrying out the attack in Lithuania with hammers, have also been apprehended. Tusk highlighted a zero-tolerance policy for those collaborating with Russian intelligence, referencing a separate incident involving a Polish citizen’s plan to assassinate Ukraine’s President Zelensky on Russia’s behalf.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian aircraft, such as Su-25 and Su-34, have been striking Ukrainian positions with minimal opposition due to inadequate Ukrainian air defense, facilitating Russian territorial advances in Donetsk Oblast. This vulnerability persists despite Ukraine’s successful downing of a Russian strategic bomber, signaling overstretched Ukrainian air defenses. In response, President Zelensky has appealed to the West for increased military aid, including artillery, air defense systems, long-range strike capabilities, and fighter jets, highlighting the urgency amidst U.S. assistance delays. At the Ukraine-NATO Council, he specifically requested additional Patriot systems and one million artillery shells, underscoring the necessity of long-range missiles and artillery, as well as fighter aircraft, to counteract Russian military pressure. Although NATO has committed to providing more support, the shortfall in Ukrainian artillery and air defense capabilities permits ongoing Russian operations and intense bombardment of Ukrainian defensive positions, thus jeopardizing Ukraine’s defensive efforts and potentially enabling further significant Russian operational achievements.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has openly expressed Russia’s aim to capture Kharkiv City in a major upcoming offensive, marking the first time a senior Kremlin official has directly identified the city as a military target. This move aligns with Russia’s strategy to create a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine, intended to shield Russian territories from Ukrainian attacks. Amid these developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has highlighted the urgent need for Western military support, including air defense systems and artillery, to counter the anticipated Russian aggression.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
There was continued positional fighting along the Svatove-Kreminna line in Ukraine, but the frontline remained unchanged. Clashes occurred in several locations, including near Tverdokhlibove, Kreminna, Terny, Torske, Yampolivka, and Bilohorivka. Reports indicate Russian military regrouping and movements, with various Russian units engaged in the combat around these areas.
Russian troops made attempts to advance northeast of Bakhmut without confirmed frontline shifts. Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets noted Russian efforts to move through Bilohorivka toward Zvanivka, aiming for Siversk. Despite these actions, Ukrainian forces maintained their positions, and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian assaults in the Bakhmut region were repelled.
Russian forces made advances in the Chasiv Yar region, with fighting reported in several surrounding areas including Bohdanivka, Kalynivka, and near the Siverskyi-Donetsk Donbas canal. Russian military activity, including airstrikes with guided bombs on Chasiv Yar, was noted, with various Russian units actively engaged in attacks from multiple directions. Some areas north of Chasiv Yar have become a “gray zone” with unclear control. Russian airborne and motorized rifle units are involved in the offensive efforts in this sector.
The Russian Southern Grouping of Forces has experienced significant losses of armored vehicles, with the number of operational tanks falling to under 650. This decrease is attributed to intense mechanized assaults in the Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Kurakhove areas, which also led to a reduction in combat-ready armored fighting vehicles to a maximum of 1,850.
Russian troops made minor advancements west of Avdiivka, with ongoing clashes reported in surrounding areas including Novokalynove, Ocheretyne, Berdychi, and Netaylove. Some Russian sources allege progress in these locations, though claims about Netaylove advances lack evidence. No visual confirmations of these asserted advances have been noted by ISW, indicating the fluid and contested nature of the frontline.
Russian forces have made recent advances southwest of Donetsk City, with ongoing positional battles in areas west and southwest of the city. Engagements were noted near Heorhiivka, Krasnohorivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka.
There was ongoing fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border, specifically south of Velyka Novosilka in the Staromayorske and Urozhaine areas. Despite a claim by a Russian milblogger of an advance near Staromayorske, there is no visual confirmation of frontline changes. Russian military presence was reported near Vuhledar.
Fighting persisted in western Zaporizhia Oblast with skirmishes around Robotyne and northwest of Verbove.
Continued positional fighting was reported in east Kherson Oblast, particularly near Krynky. A Russian milblogger noted a reduced Ukrainian military presence in the area, with forces also positioned near the Antonivsky roadway bridge.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets resulted in the deaths of at least 9 people and the injuries of at least 41 others:
- Russian forces launched an attack on the suburbs of Kherson on the evening of April 19, resulting in the death of an 80-year-old woman who was struck while walking on the street. The attack, originating from the east bank of Kherson, also hit multiple buildings, including residences, a healthcare center, and utility networks, leaving three people injured.
- In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, recent Russian attacks have led to at least seven deaths, among them two children, and have injured 35 people. Concurrently, in Nikopol within the same oblast, a Russian drone struck a fire truck amidst firefighting activities after previous hostilities, fortunately without causing any injuries to emergency personnel.
- An elderly woman was killed, and her husband injured in a Russian artillery attack on the Kutsurub community in Mykolaiv Oblast. A 14-year-old boy was also wounded and is currently hospitalized.
- A Russian missile strike on Odesa Oblast injured one person and damaged port facilities, including two food export terminals, one owned by a Singaporean firm. The injured civilian received hospital treatment for shrapnel wounds. The attack targeted the Pivdennyi Port, destroying agricultural exports meant for Asia and Africa.
Ukraine News
On the night of April 18 to 19, Russian forces launched a significant missile and drone attack on Ukraine, firing 22 missiles and 14 Shahed drones. Ukrainian defenses intercepted most of the attacks, including two Kh-101/Kh-555 and 11 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, along with 14 Shahed drones. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was notably targeted, with strikes damaging transportation and civilian structures in Dnipro City and nearby areas, also injuring railway workers. Marina and I were in the region and woke when one drone exploded above us. Further strikes hit Odesa’s port facilities and Kharkiv’s Sorokove with an S-300 missile. Notably, Ukrainian forces reported their first successful interception of Kh-22 cruise missiles, a rare occurrence in the conflict.
Following a deadly Russian missile strike in Dnipro that killed at least eight and injured 35, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the urgent need for air defense systems from international partners. Speaking in Dnipro, Zelensky stressed that discussions alone are insufficient; concrete actions are required to protect civilian lives. He highlighted the necessity for at least seven Patriot systems, underlining their potential to save many lives. In response, Germany pledged an additional Patriot system and ammunition, while the Netherlands allocated around $210 million for air defense and artillery ammunition for Ukraine. Zelensky expressed gratitude towards nations supporting Ukraine and urged continued global advocacy for Ukrainian defense.
President Volodymyr Zelensky visited a medical unit of the 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade in Donetsk Oblast, where he awarded servicemen and medics for their efforts in treating soldiers. Amidst a worsening situation on the eastern front, Zelensky inspected new fortifications and received updates on the regional security, including the defense of Chasiv Yar. The visit comes as Russia intensifies its offensive, aiming to capture the town by their Victory Day on May 9.
Russian military actions have resulted in extensive destruction in Donetsk Oblast, with at least 116,000 homes damaged or destroyed, including over 7,000 apartment buildings. Key areas like Marinka and Vuhledar have been decimated, with many frontline settlements experiencing significant devastation. With Russia controlling about 60% of the region, a full assessment is impeded, but the damage to the local economy is considerable, with most large enterprises and the coal industry largely ruined. Amid this destruction, the situation on Ukraine’s eastern front is worsening as Russia’s offensive escalates.
Ukraine’s Allies
The Netherlands is committing over 200 million euros to rapidly supply Ukraine with air defense and artillery ammunition, addressing urgent shortages amid increased Russian bombardments. Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren confirmed this support, which includes contributions to Germany’s air defense initiative and an Estonian effort to supply artillery shells. Additionally, the Netherlands is investing in short-range air defense systems. NATO allies have also pledged more support, with Ukraine specifically needing at least seven Patriot systems.
German drone manufacturer Quantum Systems has established a new factory in Ukraine, its second in the country, with plans to ramp up to producing 1,000 drones annually. This move represents a significant investment in Ukraine, totaling up to €6 million over two years, and signals long-term support for Ukraine’s defense. Quantum Systems, known for their Vector reconnaissance drones supplied to Ukraine, also plans to expand its local workforce to about 100 by year-end. Ukraine, recognizing the strategic importance of drones, has created a dedicated drone branch of its Armed Forces and aims to significantly increase domestic drone production.
NATO has committed to supplying more air defense systems to Ukraine, including Patriot units, amidst increased Russian airstrikes. This promise was announced by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting, which was convened at President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request. Stoltenberg mentioned the potential for additional aid such as the French SAMP/T system and financial support for further purchases. President Zelensky has stressed the need for at least seven Patriot systems to protect Ukrainian lives, drawing comparisons between NATO’s air defense aid to Israel and its support for Ukraine. The urgency for enhanced air defense in Ukraine is underscored by the recent destruction of critical energy infrastructure by Russian attacks.
The U.K. is dedicating roughly 150 million pounds to aid Ukraine’s energy sector following intensified Russian attacks targeting energy infrastructure. This includes significant damage to facilities like Zaporizhia’s Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant and the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant, which resulted in a total loss of generation capacity for Centrenergo. During an OSCE meeting, the U.K. pledged further support and called for a combined G7 effort to strengthen Ukraine’s energy resilience.
The G7 foreign ministers have committed to enhancing Ukraine’s air defense to shield civilians and infrastructure amid intensified Russian assaults. This pledge was made following attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, resulting in civilian casualties. The ministers also emphasized the necessity for Russia to compensate for the destruction caused by its military actions, considering the use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s aid. The estimated cost for Ukraine’s recovery has reached $486 billion, with $300 billion in Russian assets currently frozen in the West.
Ukraine is set to receive 560 million euros from the European Investment Bank for various projects, as announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during his U.S. This funding aims to support energy, infrastructure, housing, and economic recovery efforts, aligning Ukraine closer with the EU. Shmyhal’s discussions in Washington with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen focused on aid, sanctions against Russia, and the use of frozen Russian assets. With Ukraine’s budget requiring substantial international aid, the EU has already allocated substantial loans and grants, with the first disbursement already made in March.
Republican Congressman Don Bacon has criticized fellow party members for opposing military aid to Ukraine, accusing them of favoring a Russian victory. House Speaker Mike Johnson’s strategy is to divide the aid package into four separate bills for a vote scheduled for April 20. Despite the opposition from Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene and the risk to Johnson’s leadership, the House Democrats and President Biden are in support, ensuring the bills’ progression to the Senate upon passing the House. Simultaneously, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer declared that Senate Democrats will support the aid bills for Ukraine once passed by the House. Schumer emphasizes the urgency, backed by bipartisan assurances to Ukraine’s Prime Minister. The Pentagon is prepared to quickly send military aid, including crucial artillery and air defenses, to Ukraine immediately after the bill’s enactment, leveraging its well-established logistics network for rapid deployment.
Life in Russian-Occupied Ukraine
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that a drone targeted a training facility at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), causing no damage or casualties. This incident marks the third recent drone strike on the ZNPP.
Russian authorities continue to deport Ukrainian children, integrating them into programs and sending them to camps within Russia without established plans for their return. These actions extend to children from regions like Luhansk and Kherson, and there are claims of relocating children to families within Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories. Concurrently, Ukrainian and German officials have identified 161 deported children in Germany. In a positive turn, Ukraine has managed to retrieve three teenagers from areas under Russian control.
Myroslava, a 17-year-old Ukrainian girl who had been deported to Russia, managed to return to Ukraine after 18 months, thanks to the efforts of the Ukrainian Reintegration Ministry and support from various governmental and diplomatic sources. This case is a rare success against the backdrop of approximately 19,500 Ukrainian children being abducted by Russia since the beginning of the conflict. These events occur amidst reports of re-education efforts by Russia and the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants for Russian leaders, including President Putin, for their involvement in these forced deportations.
Russia News
In an unprecedented event, Ukrainian forces downed a Russian TU-22M3 bomber using an S-200 air defense system, marking a significant defensive achievement as the aircraft was previously involved in attacks on Ukrainian cities, leading to civilian casualties. The bomber crashed in Russia’s Stavropol Krai, and while Ukraine highlights this as a demonstration of their air defense capabilities, Russia claims a technical failure was the cause, contradicting reports of crew casualties. Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk confirms the downing and emphasizes the necessity for additional defensive measures to counteract such assaults, especially as the destroyed bomber had been part of operations against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukraine’s military calls for more resources to bolster protection against ongoing Russian attacks.
A Ukrainian missile strike on April 13 in occupied Luhansk resulted in the death of Russian Colonel Pavel Kropotov, commander of the 59th Guards Communications Brigade. Initially, Russian officials reported an attack on a factory with three injuries but did not mention Kropotov. His death was later acknowledged, with reports stating he died during “British missile fire,” suggesting a U.K.-supplied missile may have been used. Ukraine has not confirmed the specifics of the weaponry involved. The strike is part of a series of attacks by Ukraine on military targets in Russian-occupied areas.
Russell Bentley, an American who joined pro-Russian forces in Ukraine in 2014, was reported killed in Donetsk Oblast by Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan, although details of his death are unconfirmed. Known by the call sign “Texas,” Bentley had been missing since April 8, when he went to help residents after shelling in the region. His wife suggested he might have been abducted by Russian soldiers on espionage suspicions. Bentley, a U.S. military veteran and convicted felon, had produced propaganda for Russia and obtained Russian citizenship. He was featured in a Rolling Stone interview, positioning himself as an “information warrior” echoing Russian views.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that Russia’s GDP is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2024, maintaining the growth rate from the previous year despite the initial economic shock and a 2.1% contraction in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. Russia has managed to counteract Western sanctions and economic isolation by bolstering its economy through increased oil sales, especially to India and China. The country has kept its budget deficit to about 1% of GDP. These developments come amidst Western sanctions targeting various sectors, raising questions about their effectiveness, as Russia shows signs of economic resilience but with increasing reliance on fewer trade partners.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian officials are balancing the need for migrant labor to alleviate labor shortages against ultranationalist calls for stricter migration controls. Tatarstan Government Head Alexey Pesoshin emphasized that industries in Tatarstan, including drone production, cannot meet labor demands without migrants. Despite this, he acknowledged the complex issues raised by ultranationalist anti-migrant sentiments. President Putin has recently declared migrant labor as essential for addressing Russia’s current and future labor shortages.
Russian forces are making rapid, cost-effective modifications to their military equipment to shield against Ukrainian drone strikes. Recent images from April 18 show a KAMAZ truck equipped with a Russian Pantsir-S1 Air Defense system, which has been fitted with metal mesh screens for added protection. Despite these adaptations, a Russian military blogger has expressed skepticism about their effectiveness in defending against Ukrainian drone attacks.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited tank and thermobaric artillery production facilities in Omsk Oblast, directing them to boost production. He also toured the Omsk Automotive and Armored Engineering Institute, where he met with cadets training in armored vehicle maintenance and drone operations for frontline deployment.
Russia’s Allies
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has labeled China as a key supporter of Russia’s military efforts in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, despite Beijing’s claims of neutrality. This support reportedly includes machine tools, weapons technology, and satellite imagery, alongside semiconductors and dual-use technologies. Blinken has called out the contradiction in China’s actions, stressing it undermines European security. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock echoed these concerns. In response, Chinese officials maintain their partnership with Russia is normal and deny providing weapons to any party in the conflict.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is intensifying rhetoric to undermine US and Western support for Ukraine, asserting that Russia will not halt its military actions during potential peace talks and dismissing the possibility of meaningful negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Lavrov’s statements aim to influence US internal discussions, particularly ahead of a crucial House vote on additional military assistance for Ukraine scheduled for April 20.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com