Summary of the day: The US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson, Senator Mark Warner, indicated that military aid to Ukraine, including ATACMS missiles, could soon be dispatched if relevant legislative processes conclude by April 24. This move aligns with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s remarks on the potential impact of swift US aid delivery, suggesting it could help Ukrainian forces stabilize the frontline and potentially seize the initiative. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces managed to strike and damage a Russian naval vessel in Crimea, marking a significant military engagement. On the Russian front, troops have recently made tactical advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, intensifying the conflict. Additionally, geopolitical maneuvers were noted as Russia and China bolstered their naval cooperation, and pro-Kremlin forces in Moldova organized under a new electoral bloc, potentially shifting the political landscape there.
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Beyond Ukraine – March Towards World War
Ilan Shor, a Moldovan politician with connections to the Kremlin and currently under U.S. sanctions, has formed the “Victory” electoral bloc. Intended to run in Moldova’s presidential election, the bloc comprises minor parties aligned with Shor and opposes EU integration in favor of closer ties with Russia. Despite Shor’s current exile in Israel and the bloc leaders not meeting the presidential age requirements in Moldova, this move seeks to rally pro-Russian support within the country. In contrast, Moldova’s pro-EU officials, including President Maia Sandu, who is campaigning for re-election and pro-EU constitutional changes, warn of Russian meddling in Moldovan politics, particularly with the risk of unrest in areas like Transnistria and Gagauzia. Sandu’s re-election and the parliamentary elections are on the horizon, marking a critical juncture for Moldova’s direction towards the EU.
Chisinau International Airport in Moldova was evacuated on April 21 due to a bomb threat. Authorities are investigating, and for safety, trolleybus route No. 30 has been rerouted. This follows a similar false alarm the night before. The U.S. is working closely with Moldova amidst concerns of Russian destabilization efforts, especially given the tension over the Russian-occupied territory of Transnistria in Moldova.
NATO members, including Poland, Lithuania, and the U.S., started military drills near the Suwalki Gap, a strategic corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad, on April 21. The exercises, involving 1,500 troops and significant equipment, aim to strengthen joint defenses in the region. Details remain confidential. These drills coincide with the U.S.-led Saber Strike exercises in Lithuania and follow increased tension since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces are increasingly using small, lightweight off-road vehicles like buggies and modified golf carts to transport troops to the frontline. This shift compensates for shortages in traditional military transport vehicles, exacerbated by international sanctions affecting battery part production. While these vehicles enable rapid troop deployment and maneuvering into strategic positions, they provide minimal protection. Recent drone footage has frequently shown Ukrainian forces targeting these lightly armored vehicles, highlighting their vulnerability in combat situations.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces made slight territorial gains west of Kreminna as they continue to engage in ongoing battles along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Recent footage confirms minor advances east of Yampolivka. The conflict remains intense with continued fighting reported near several other localities including Stelmakhivka, Terny, and Bilohorivka.
Russian forces continued their offensive near Siversk, northeast of Bakhmut, without achieving any significant territorial gains. Attacks were reported east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske and southeast near Spirne, both of which were unsuccessful.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that their forces had captured Bohdanivka, northeast of Chasiv Yar, although this has not been visually confirmed. Reports from various sources describe a complex and uncertain frontline around Bohdanivka, with Russian forces establishing strong defensive positions in the area but lacking full control. Meanwhile, ongoing battles near Chasiv Yar have seen no significant advances by Russian forces, despite continued attacks using combat vehicles, aviation, and infantry. Ukrainian officials maintain that Chasiv Yar itself remains defended, although its eastern outskirts are heavily damaged and challenging to defend. Russian military efforts in the region are intensifying, with the use of heavy artillery and new troops to try to overcome Ukrainian defenses.
President Zelensky of Ukraine predicts Russia will target the town of Chasiv Yar for capture by May 9, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day. Amidst shortages in equipment and ammunition, Ukrainian forces are bracing for the assault. Reports suggest that Russian advances could come as U.S. aid arrives, with Chasiv Yar being strategically significant for further operations in the Donetsk region. Currently, about 800 residents remain in the heavily battered town. Earlier claims of Russian forces entering a suburb of Chasiv Yar were denied by the Ukrainian military.
Russian forces have made marginal advances in eastern Ocheretyne, northwest of Avdiivka, as confirmed by geolocated footage and reports from Russian milbloggers. There are unverified claims of Russian forces capturing Berdychi. Intense positional battles continue across multiple locations around Avdiivka, including Ocheretyne, Berdychi, and Novobakhmutivka. Additionally, Russian military efforts appear temporarily paused near the Domakha gully due to challenging Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets notes the re-deployment of Russian troops aiming to sustain the offensive push in this region. The Russian Central Grouping of Forces in the area includes significant personnel and military hardware, though these numbers have not been independently verified.
Russian sources report that their forces have captured Novomykhailivka, southwest of Donetsk City, though this has not been visually confirmed. Claims from Russian milbloggers suggest the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade and the BARS-22 “Tigr” Volunteer Detachment have taken the village, with some footage showing a flag raised on its outskirts. However, further reports indicate that Russian troops still need to secure the western and southern parts of Novomykhailivka. Meanwhile, ongoing battles continue west and southwest of Donetsk City, particularly near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka, without any confirmed advances in these areas.
Russian forces have made a slight advance in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, with recent footage showing the capture of a building south of Urozhaine. Despite claims by Russian milbloggers of capturing up to one square kilometer, no visual evidence supports this extent of advance. The Russians are also conducting limited assaults near Urozhaine to test Ukrainian defenses. Positional battles are ongoing near Staromayorske, with Russian forces using thermobaric artillery in the south Donetsk direction.
Positional fighting continued near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
Positional battles persisted near Krynky in eastern Kherson Oblast, with no significant developments. Meanwhile, Russian forces are active near the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast.
Ukrainian Victims Of War
The casualty count of Ukrainian civilians in the past 24 hours:
DEATHS: 0 INJURIES: 3
- Russian forces attacked 20 settlements in Kherson Oblast, injuring one person and damaging 12 houses, a school, a restaurant, and a gas pipeline. The gas leak caused by the attack has been contained, with no further fires or dangers reported.
- In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Russian attacks led to a 47-year-old woman being injured and hospitalized. The assaults involved drones and artillery targeting Nikopol and surrounding communities, resulting in damage to five homes, an administrative building, and eight other structures. There were no further injuries reported.
- A Russian attack on Kharkiv injured a 19-year-old resident, now hospitalized with leg injuries.
- Russian forces carried out seven attacks across four communities in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine, causing at least 36 explosions. The affected areas include Myropillia, Seredyna-Buda, Bilopillia, and Krasnopillia. There were no reported casualties or damage to civilian buildings. The attacks involved artillery, drones, and mortar fire.
A building damaged in a Russian attack on Nikopol
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched missile attacks on Ukraine, targeting Zaporizhzhia City and infrastructures in Odesa City and its surrounding area. Ukrainian defense systems managed to shoot down two Kh-59 missiles. Ukrainian Air Force officials report that these intensified strikes are exploiting current shortages in Ukraine’s air defenses, anticipating the arrival of significant military support from the US and other Western allies. Meanwhile, Russian officials are conserving some missile types to maintain their stockpile levels, with approximately 950 long-range missiles currently reserved, aiming to keep this arsenal from dipping below 900 units.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed the critical role of swift U.S. military aid in securing an advantage on the frontline. The House’s approval of a $61 billion aid package is seen as essential in bolstering Ukrainian forces amid escalating Russian aggression. Delays in aid have already resulted in significant personnel and equipment losses, and the need for air defense and long-range weaponry is particularly acute to decrease frontline casualties. With the Senate’s anticipated concurrence and President Biden’s anticipated signature, Zelensky is calling for the quick dispatch of the promised weapons. Analysts warn that further delays could exacerbate Ukrainian vulnerabilities and invite increased Russian offensives. Senator Warner indicated that long-range missiles could be dispatched to Ukraine as soon as this week, as Zelensky underscores the urgency of this support in regaining strategic initiative.
Ukraine’s Allies
The U.S. may soon send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, with shipments possible by week’s end after the White House approves a $61 billion aid package. This move is part of continued U.S. support aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s military against Russian forces. Recent aid has allowed Ukraine to significantly target Russia’s military capabilities. More U.S. advisors are expected in Kyiv to enhance defense cooperation and ensure effective use of U.S. equipment. The first batch of ATACMS, delivered in October 2023, might be followed by longer-range versions, subject to congressional funding approval. This aid addresses Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs amidst significant losses and shortages.
Germany and Lithuania are exploring if decommissioned power plants can supply parts to help rebuild Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, damaged by Russian strikes. Ukrainian specialists are sourcing parts in Lithuania, and Germany has also offered assistance. Ukraine’s Energy Minister emphasized the urgency of acquiring equipment due to significant damage to thermal power plants, with the largest energy provider, DTEK, severely impacted. Time is of the essence, as creating new equipment from scratch by winter is not feasible.
Russia News
Ukrainian forces struck the Kommuna in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, impairing the world’s oldest active-duty naval vessel, which is essential for Russian Black Sea Fleet’s rescue and retrieval operations. The extent of the Kommuna’s damage remains unknown, but its loss could impede submarine operations and missile launches. Following the incident, a Russian official claimed a repelled missile caused only a minor fire. Meanwhile, social media footage indicates a naval vessel was aflame, and reports emerged of the Crimea bridge’s closure. Launched in 1915, the Kommuna’s operational setback comes as Russia, reacting to persistent Ukrainian assaults, has been repositioning its fleet and fortifying maritime defenses in Crimea and Novorossiysk.
The Russian government has blocked the website of the French NGO Reporters Without Borders (RSF), which provides independent evaluations of press freedom. This action is part of a broader clampdown on access to information about Russia’s war in Ukraine and its domestic policies affecting freedom of speech. The blockage coincides with deteriorating press freedom in Russia, as evidenced by RSF’s “Freedom Index” that shows Russia’s ranking dropping significantly in recent years due to restrictive laws and targeting of independent media. This move further restricts Russian citizens’ access to unbiased assessments of their country’s media environment.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian military is enticing Ukrainian civilians in occupied territories with higher salaries to sign voluntary military service contracts. Reports indicate salaries of at least 500,000 rubles ($5,325) per month, with some sources suggesting payments of up to one million rubles ($10,622). This increase in incentives, up to 40 percent in some regions, likely aims to address declining recruitment rates, particularly in areas heavily impacted by occupation.
The Ukrainian Navy reported that Russian forces in occupied Crimea are training dolphins to detect and surface underwater saboteurs, likely special forces divers. This practice is part of Russia’s strategy to use trained dolphins for defending naval bases in Crimea.
The Russian defense company Kalashnikov Concern introduced the “Kolizyey-RU” drone, a multipurpose hexacopter, at the Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School on April 19. This new drone is designed for day and night reconnaissance, cargo delivery, and other tasks.
Russia’s Allies
The Russian and Chinese navies enhanced their collaboration by signing a memorandum of understanding focused on naval search and rescue operations. This agreement was signed during a meeting between the naval chiefs of both countries in China, where they discussed further naval cooperation. This development occurs just before US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s scheduled visit to China, amidst reports of increasing Chinese support for Russia’s activities in Ukraine.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Following the US House of Representatives’ approval of an aid package for Ukraine on April 20, Kremlin officials and Russian milbloggers launched narratives to undermine the initiative. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Maria Zakharova claimed the US aid would harm Ukrainians and accused the US of sponsoring terrorism. Peskov also warned against the US seizing frozen Russian assets, suggesting it would harm America’s reputation, while a Russian milblogger feared it might prompt similar EU actions. Additionally, Dmitry Medvedev reiterated the claim that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people,” alleging that US aid fuels a civil war in Ukraine—a narrative intended to misrepresent Western support as prolonging conflict. Medvedev also expressed a desire for internal conflict in the US. Russian commentators varied in their views on the effectiveness of the aid, with some acknowledging its potential significant impact on the battlefield. The Institute for the Study of War predicts Russia will intensify efforts to weaken Western support for Ukraine.
Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, denied allegations that Russia orchestrated a migrant crisis on the Finnish border in late 2023, calling Western claims “unfounded” and provocative. Conversely, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russia did indeed engineer this crisis as part of a hybrid warfare strategy to destabilize NATO and the EU.
The Kremlin is promoting false narratives about “neo-Nazism” in Ukraine through state media aimed at international audiences, likely to discourage Western nations from providing military support to Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that RT, a state media channel, will broadcast a “documentary” claiming to explore Nazi influences in Ukraine both during World War II and in modern times.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com