Summary of the day: Russian military commentators continue to express concerns over Ukraine’s superior drone and electronic warfare capabilities, emphasizing the rapid technological innovations shaping the battlefield. A document for the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15 calls for limited engagement with Russia, though the Kremlin remains unlikely to negotiate meaningfully. Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign targets NATO states, while it augments its military capabilities for potential conflict. Meanwhile, Russian forces have advanced near Vovchansk, Siversk, and Donetsk City. Additionally, Russia continues to militarize deported Ukrainian youth for future service in its armed forces.
These updates will be shorter until the end of July and will only use the Institute for the Study of War as a source while we are on holiday visiting family and friends. We will be back to our normal coverage again starting on July 22, 2024.
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Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Russia is ramping up hybrid warfare against NATO states while boosting its conventional military capabilities. Norwegian Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen warned that NATO has 2-3 years to rebuild its forces before Russia regains conventional attack capabilities. Russia’s defense output is currently high, and Western officials report increasing Russian-backed sabotage in Europe. Russia uses proxies like criminal gangs for these operations after many diplomats and spies were expelled. NATO has consistently warned about these intensifying hybrid warfare activities.
Russian sources falsely depicted the NATO Steadfast Defender 2024 military exercises as a threat. They claimed these exercises show the West is preparing for conflict with Russia. ISW states that these Russian portrayals are misleading. The Steadfast Defender exercises are defensive, responding to Russian aggression in Ukraine and threats to NATO countries.
Russian and Kremlin-affiliated sources claim the West is trying to destabilize Georgia, praising the Georgian Dream ruling party. They suggest the West aims to create tension on Russia’s borders by October 2024. Russian officials and Georgian Dream affiliates accuse the West of planning a “Maidan” scenario in Georgia, like Ukraine’s 2014 protests. A Kremlin-linked blogger cited US statements about reviewing aid to Georgia, implying the US is punishing Georgia for its independent policies. ISW believes Russian and some Georgian officials are undermining Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration to weaken the country.
Kremlin officials and affiliates criticize Armenia for anti-Russian actions. A Kremlin-linked blogger condemned Armenian officials for visiting Bucha, Ukraine, providing aid, and honoring killed civilians. They claim this visit shows Armenia supports Ukraine and opposes Russia. Additionally, Galuzin criticized Armenia for allowing an EU monitoring mission instead of relying on the CSTO, suggesting the EU is gathering intelligence on Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan.
Belarusian Energy Minister Viktor Karankevich announced on June 4 that Belarus and Russia will expand their nuclear energy cooperation through scientific and technical support under Union State mechanisms.
Peace Talks
Ukraine and its partners have drafted a document for the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15, focusing on limited engagement with Russia. The document aims to address nuclear safety, food security, and the return of abducted Ukrainian civilians and children. It condemns nuclear threats, calls for the return of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Ukraine, and seeks freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov for Ukrainian agricultural exports. However, the Kremlin is unlikely to engage in meaningful negotiations.
Russian officials have been hostile to engaging with Ukraine on key issues. The Kremlin frequently threatens Ukraine and the West with nuclear weapons to influence decisions. Russia uses its control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to legitimize its occupation and targets Ukrainian ports to hinder agricultural exports. There has been limited cooperation on returning Ukrainian children, and Russia continues to deport Ukrainian civilians. The Kremlin’s interest in negotiations often aims to push for Western concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Russian officials are trying to discredit the upcoming Ukrainian Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin claimed low participation numbers, while Ukrainian Presidential Spokesperson Serhii Nykyforov confirmed that 107 countries and organizations will attend. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said that CIS countries, Russia’s close allies, will not attend. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia is threatening to block imports and exports to disrupt the summit and discourage attendance.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian commentators are concerned about Ukraine’s superior drone and electronic warfare capabilities, noting that Ukrainian forces have a significant advantage in drone numbers and integration. Ukrainian troops have a 3-10:1 FPV drone advantage over Russian forces, with better centralized drone units. In contrast, Russian forces lack organized drone systems and rely on ad hoc supplies. Ukraine’s effective drone use has hindered Russian offensives, particularly in the Avdiivka area. As a result, Russia faces pressure to enhance its drone warfare capabilities to match Ukraine’s technological and tactical innovations.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Lyptsi
Russian forces continued their offensive north of Kharkiv City, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed. Fighting persisted near Lyptsi and Hlyboke. Vitaly Ganchev, head of Kharkiv Oblast’s occupation administration, admitted the pace of Russian advances has slowed, matching recent observations.
Vovchansk
Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv City, with fighting continuing in and around Starytsya and Vovchansk. Geolocated footage shows Russian advances on the northern outskirts of Starytsya. Ukrainian forces control about 70% of Vovchansk, according to a Ukrainian military spokesperson. Russian artillery is targeting river crossings to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. Heavy infantry assaults by Russian forces continue, though their vehicles stay 3-5 kilometers from the border to avoid strikes. Both sides face challenges building fortifications due to frequent drone and artillery fire.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued their offensive along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line without confirmed changes to the frontline. A Russian source claimed advances near Stelmakhivka, but this remains unverified. Fighting persisted in multiple areas, including northeast and southeast of Kupyansk, and around Kreminna.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction. Geolocated footage shows advances east of Verkhnokamyanske and south of Rozdolivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reported intense fighting in the Siversk area, with Russian offensives near Bilohorivka, Ivano-Darivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Vyimka, and Rozdolivka.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continued their offensive near Chasiv Yar without any confirmed changes to the frontline. They conducted assaults on the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, as well as near Kalynivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
Avdiivka
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction, but no changes to the frontline were confirmed. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced 1.5 kilometers towards Karlivka, and an advisor claimed they are pinning Ukrainian forces along the Karlivka Reservoir. However, these claims lack visual confirmation. Fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novooleksandrivka and Yevhenivka, west near Karlivka and Netaylove, and southwest near Nevelske.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces recently advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage shows advances in western Krasnohorivka and areas near Paraskoviivka, Pobieda, and Solodke. Russian milbloggers claim advances up to 480 meters within Paraskoviivka and 500 meters southeast of Vodyane. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian assault in the Novomykhailivka area. Offensive operations continue near Krasnohorivka, Paraskoviivka, Vodyane, and Kostyantynivka.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued assaults in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area, specifically southeast of Velyka Novosilka near Zolota Nyva, and south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast without any confirmed changes to the frontline. Fighting persisted near Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka, and Verbove. Russian milbloggers claimed advances near Robotyne, Myrne, and Nesteryanka, but there is no visual confirmation. Dmitry Rogozin noted that Ukrainian forces have an advantage in drones, artillery, and electronic warfare.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative None
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the east bank of Kherson Oblast and in the Dnipro River Delta, with no confirmed frontline changes. The Ukrainian General Staff reported repelling several Russian attacks near Krynky. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian airborne and naval infantry are clearing Ukrainian troops from the Dnipro River Delta islands and preventing landings on the east bank.
Ukraine News
On the night of June 3-4 and during the day on June 4, Russian forces launched a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported intercepting two Iskander-K cruise missiles aimed at Dnipro City, although debris damaged civilian infrastructure. Four drones were also launched at northern Ukraine; two were shot down over Chernihiv Oblast, and the other two failed to reach their targets. Additionally, Russian forces conducted a glide munition strike on Kupyansk and a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih.
Kharkiv Oblast Head of Police Volodymyr Tymoshko reported on June 4 that Russian forces are targeting recreational areas to make people flee Kharkiv City. This aligns with previous assessments that Russia aims to drive residents out of the city through increased strikes.
Life In Russian-Occupied Ukraine
A joint investigation by the Russian opposition student journal DOXA and the open-source outlet Kidmapping reveals the Russian Orthodox Church’s role in Russifying Ukrainian children deported to Russia. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion, children from occupied Ukrainian regions were taken to Rostov Oblast, where ROC clergy encouraged them to join the church and Russian youth organizations. These efforts aim to sever their Ukrainian identities. The ROC’s involvement is part of the Kremlin’s broader plan, with officials like Maria Lvova-Belova, who faces an ICC arrest warrant, actively participating. The forced Russification of these children is seen as a violation of the Genocide Convention.
Russia continues to militarize deported Ukrainian youth, preparing them for future service in the Russian armed forces. On May 30, Readovka reported that over 2,500 teenagers from occupied regions will receive military training at the “Voin” camp in Volgograd Oblast. The training includes combat medicine, engineering, fire training, and drone operation. The camp’s director emphasized the goal of instilling patriotism and love for Russia in these youths. Russia uses such camps to Russify Ukrainian teenagers, stripping them of their national identities and preparing them for potential military service.
Russia News
New Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov invited select war correspondents and milbloggers to meet with him, aiming to coopt key figures in the Russian information space. This move prompted limited criticism from a prominent milblogger, who claimed the invitees were carefully chosen and unlikely to challenge the Kremlin. Belousov’s appointment has been welcomed by many, who hope for improvements over his predecessor Sergei Shoigu, criticized for lying about military performance and failing to supply frontline forces. The Kremlin has been trying to regain control over critical milbloggers by offering them state awards and government positions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Andrei Turchak, the First Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council, as the acting governor of the Altai Republic. Turchak, who previously led a working group on Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, replaces Oleg Khorokhordin, who resigned for a new, unspecified position. Putin discussed developing the tourism industry in the Altai Republic with Turchak via videoconference. Vladimir Yakushev is expected to replace Turchak as United Russia Secretary.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s appointment of Andrei Turchak as acting governor of the Altai Republic is seen by some as a demotion. Sources suggest Putin offered Turchak the position via videoconference, which is unusual. Some believe Turchak was removed due to being “too active” in St. Petersburg, while others see it as a strategic move given the Altai Republic’s location near Central Asia. Speculation includes potential plans for a new regional association or a referendum to unify the Altai Republic and Altai Krai, possibly to bolster Russia’s defense industry.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
The Russian military continues to forcibly send personnel, including those with serious medical issues, to fight in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that troops with conditions like cancer, tuberculosis, and severe wounds are being sent to the front in Donetsk Oblast. Verstka reported on June 3 that hundreds of servicemembers who refuse to fight are being sent to Ukraine instead of facing trial.
On June 3, the Russian Ministry of Defense unveiled the new TOS-3 “Drakon” heavy thermobaric artillery system, which has an increased firing range of 15 to 24 kilometers. For comparison, the TOS-1A has a range of 6 to 10 kilometers, and the TOS-2 has a maximum range of 15 kilometers.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces used the “Legushka” (“Frog”) unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) for the first time in Ukraine, in the Avdiivka direction. They attached mines to the UGV to target a Ukrainian machine gun crew. The “Legushka” UGV can carry 30 kilograms and strike targets up to three kilometers away using a self-destruct attack.
Russian state-owned defense company Rostec announced that Russian forces are testing the “Impulse-M” universal tracked platform UGV. The “Impulse-M” can be equipped with an anti-tank missile system, has a lifting capacity of about one ton, and can carry 500 kilograms of cargo. It can also lay mines and transport cargo or wounded personnel. The UGV features AI elements for autonomous operation and a communication system resistant to electronic warfare, allowing it to return to base autonomously if the connection is lost.
On June 3, Rostec subsidiary Kalashnikov announced the start of serial production for the “Granat-4” artillery guidance drone.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org