Summary of the Day:
Putin’s rejection of further mobilization, despite military setbacks, signals internal political concerns trumping strategic military needs. This decision may prolong the conflict and strain Russia’s resources.
Russian forces face ambitious objectives in Kursk Oblast and along the Ukrainian border, likely unattainable in the short term. These goals suggest Russia’s continued aggressive stance, potentially escalating regional tensions.
Kremlin’s push for increased drone production highlights the evolving nature of modern warfare and may influence global military technology trends.
Reports of Indian artillery reaching Ukraine via European intermediaries are straining Russia-India relations, potentially reshaping alliances in Asia.
The European Parliament’s call to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western weapons marks a significant policy shift, risking further escalation and complicating diplomatic efforts.
Recent troop movements on both sides indicate ongoing military dynamics, with potential for sudden shifts in territorial control.
These developments collectively point to a protracted conflict with far-reaching implications for global security, diplomatic relations, and military strategies.
Picture of the Day:
The aftermath of a Russian aerial bombing attack on a retirement home in the city of Sumy. (Vincenzo Circosta/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Recent developments in Eastern Europe highlight escalating tensions between Russia and NATO allies:
Russian President Putin’s emphasis on Kaliningrad’s strategic importance as Russia’s “western outpost” raises concerns about potential future aggression towards Baltic states. This follows recent Russian threats against NATO members and proposed reassessments of Baltic Sea maritime borders, indicating a possible pretext for conflict under the guise of defending Kaliningrad.
Germany’s successful testing of AI-controlled drone swarms demonstrates NATO’s advancing technological capabilities. With plans to increase production and potential adaptation for use in Ukraine, this development could significantly alter drone warfare dynamics on the Eastern European front, potentially escalating the technological arms race between NATO and Russia.
The treason charges against former Moldovan military chief Igor Gorgan for alleged espionage on behalf of Russia underscore ongoing Russian attempts to maintain influence in former Soviet states. This case, coupled with Moldova’s efforts to counter Russian influence, highlights the continuing struggle for geopolitical control in the region and the potential for conflict spillover from Ukraine.
These events collectively contribute to heightened global tensions, particularly along NATO’s eastern flank, and underscore the complex interplay of military technology, espionage, and territorial claims in shaping the current geopolitical landscape.
The Path to Peace
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski suggested “demilitarizing” Crimea and potentially placing it under U.N. mandate for 20 years as a possible solution in Russia-Ukraine peace talks. His comments at a Kyiv conference sparked controversy, particularly among Crimean Tatars. The Mejlis, representing Crimean Tatars, and Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry firmly rejected any compromise on Crimea’s status, emphasizing it as Ukrainian territory. Ukraine maintains its stance on full territorial integrity as part of its peace plan. The incident highlights ongoing tensions surrounding Crimea’s status and Ukraine’s relations with its allies, including recent reports of strained talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Polish officials over various issues.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative None
Ukrainian forces have made small advances in Kursk Oblast on September 19, gaining ground east of Veseloye and within Medvezhye. Attacks were reported near several locations including Novy Put, Obukhovka, and Medvezhye. On the northern side of their salient, Ukrainian troops progressed southeast of Sheptukhovka and Naydenov, with attacks reported near Lyubimovka, Obukhovka, Kremyanoye, and Borki.
Russian forces claimed to have captured Nikolayevo-Daryino and Daryino along the southwestern edge of the Ukrainian salient on the same day. Unconfirmed reports suggest Russian advances near Obukhovka and areas southeast of Korenevo.
Russian authorities have reportedly set a goal to expel Ukrainian troops from Kursk Oblast by mid-October 2024 and establish a “buffer zone” along the Russia-Ukraine border by the end of October. According to RBC-Ukraine, Russia has concentrated 37,000 personnel in Kursk Oblast for this operation. However, analysts suggest achieving these goals within the given timeframe is unlikely.
The Atesh partisan movement reports that Russian troops are moving weapons and military equipment from occupied Crimea to the Kursk region, including equipment from the 810th Marine Brigade. In response to the conflict, Russia has ordered the evacuation of villages within 15 kilometers of the Ukrainian border in the Kursk region.
Following a Ukrainian drone strike on September 18, satellite imagery from September 19 shows ongoing fires at the Russian Ministry of Defense’s 107th Arsenal in Toropets, Tver Oblast. A Ukrainian defense intelligence source claimed over 100 drones were used in the attack.
Ukrainian military spokesperson Colonel Vitaly Sarantsev reported on September 19 that Russian forces have mined dams in Belgorod Oblast, possibly to slow potential Ukrainian advances or stage false flag attacks. Russian forces are also building fortifications around Belgorod City, preparing for possible Ukrainian cross-border activity.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City on September 19, progressing west of Hlyboke and along the Travyanske Reservoir. They continued assaults near Hlyboke, Vovchansk, and Tykhe. Ukrainian sources report Russian forces are strengthening positions, intensifying remote mining, and focusing on reconstituting assault groups in the area. Russian troops are reportedly facing supply issues, resorting to scavenging for food and water.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces made small advances southwest of Svatove on September 19, confirmed in western Makiivka. They continued attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, including near Synkivka, Stelmakhivka, Hlushkivka, Druzhelyubivka, and Torske. Russian sources claim to have destroyed a bridge over the Oskil River near Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. Some Russian advances towards Hlushkivka and Pishchane were reported but not confirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces made progress southeast of Siversk on September 19. They advanced near Vyimka and continued attacks around Verkhnokamyanske, Ivano-Daryivka, and Vyimka on September 18-19.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces made a small advance north of Chasiv Yar at Hryhorivka on September 19. Ukrainian forces attacked Russian troops trying to cross a nearby canal. Russia continued offensive operations around Chasiv Yar, including near Stupochky, Bila Hora, and Kurdyumivka on September 18-19.
Toretsk
Russian forces continued attacking in the Toretsk area on September 19 without confirmed advances. They claimed small gains in eastern Toretsk and north of Zalizne. Fighting occurred in eastern Toretsk and nearby areas including Dachne, Nelipivka, and towards Shcherbynivka on September 18-19.
Pokrovsk
Ukrainian forces made a small advance southeast of Marynivka, while Russian forces slightly advanced southwest of Mykhailivka in the Pokrovsk area on September 19. Russia is attempting to infiltrate behind Ukrainian lines near Selydove. Fighting continues in multiple settlements around Pokrovsk, with Russian forces claiming partial control of Hrodivka.
West of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued attacks near Heorhiivka and towards Dalne on September 19, without confirmed advances. They claimed to capture Heorhiivka, though this was likely already under Russian control since June. Several Russian motorized rifle units are reportedly operating in the Kurakhove area.
Southwest of Donetsk City
Russian forces continued attacks southwest of Donetsk City on September 19, targeting Vuhledar, Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Bohoiavlenka, and Vodyane. No frontline changes were confirmed. Various Russian motorized rifle units are reportedly operating in the area, with a goal of capturing Vuhledar and a nearby mine.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia-Donetsk Border Area
Russian forces continued attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on September 19, without confirmed frontline changes. They targeted areas near Velyka Novosilka, including Zolota Nyva, Makarivka, Novodarivka, Rivnopil, and Solodke.
Zaporizhia Line
Russian forces made small advances near Hulyaipole in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, as evidenced by Ukrainian strikes on a Russian-occupied building north of Marfopil. Russian attacks continued near Hulyaipole on September 19.
Fighting continued in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 19 without confirmed frontline changes. Russian forces attacked near Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Pyatykhaty, in the areas surrounding Robotyne and Stepnohirsk.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the east bank of Kherson Oblast.
Ukraine News
Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 18-19. The attacks included S-300/S-400 missiles fired from Belgorod, a Kh-59/69 cruise missile from occupied Zaporizhia, and 42 Shahed drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk and Kursk. Ukrainian forces reportedly intercepted all 42 drones across multiple oblasts and the cruise missile over eastern Ukraine. Additionally, Russian forces struck unspecified areas in Kharkiv Oblast with three missiles on September 18.
In diplomatic news, EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Mathernova praised Ukraine’s progress towards EU membership, stating that the goal of Ukraine joining by 2030 is “not unrealistic.” European Parliament President Roberta Metsola expressed full support for Ukraine’s EU aspirations, describing it as a merit-based process.
Ukraine’s new Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha visited Slovakia, proposing a bilateral security agreement and seeking support for Ukraine’s EU and NATO membership. Despite Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico’s previous anti-Ukrainian stance, Sybiha discussed Ukraine’s peace formula with officials in Bratislava.
In domestic affairs, Ukraine’s parliament voted to rename 327 settlements with names linked to the Russian Empire or Soviet Union, part of an ongoing decommunization process. Notable changes include Chervonohrad becoming Sheptytskyi and Krasnohrad changing to Berestyn.
The parliament also unanimously voted to remove Mariana Bezuhla from her position as deputy head of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defense. Bezuhla plans to transition to the Foreign Affairs Committee.
In agricultural news, Bulgaria plans to request a suspension of egg imports from Ukraine at an EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meeting on September 23. This dispute is part of ongoing tensions between Ukraine and eastern EU members over agricultural trade. The EU implemented new free-trade rules with Ukraine in June, including safeguards for sensitive sectors like eggs.
Ukraine’s Allies
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to visit the White House on September 26 to discuss Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine with U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. During his U.S. visit, which includes attending the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Zelensky plans to present a five-point victory plan. While the U.S. has provided $61 billion in aid to Ukraine, concerns have been raised about the slow delivery and insufficient equipment.
The visit comes amid a shifting landscape of international support for Ukraine. The European Parliament recently adopted a resolution urging member states to allow Ukraine to use Western-provided long-range weapons for striking legitimate military targets in Russia. This marks a departure from previous Western hesitation on such strikes. The resolution also calls on EU and NATO members to commit annual military support for Ukraine equivalent to at least 0.25% of their GDP.
In a related development, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to visit Kyiv on September 20 to discuss Ukraine’s energy needs with President Zelensky. The EU has pledged 160 million euros ($178 million) to bolster Ukraine’s resilience against Russian attacks on energy infrastructure this winter, with nearly 100 million euros sourced from frozen Russian assets. This aid comes in response to Russia’s extensive damage to Ukraine’s power infrastructure, including the destruction of 80% of thermal power plants and one-third of hydroelectric capacity.
Germany has also stepped up its support, delivering a substantial military aid package to Ukraine. The package includes 22 Leopard 1 A5 tanks, 61,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition, three Gepard anti-aircraft guns, and various specialized equipment. This delivery cements Germany’s position as Ukraine’s second-largest military donor after the U.S. Berlin plans to provide an additional 400 million euros in military aid this year, bringing its total 2024 commitment to nearly 7.9 billion euros.
A Reuters report on September 19 claimed that Ukraine has been receiving Indian artillery shells through European intermediaries for over a year, despite Russian objections. The report suggests that countries like Italy and Czechia have been purchasing empty shells from India, filling them with explosives, and sending them to Ukraine. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has dismissed the report as “speculative and misleading.”
In a move to strengthen ties between Ukraine and the United States at a regional level, Ukraine is establishing direct partnerships between its regions and U.S. states. Led by Viktor Mykyta, a top staffer in President Zelensky’s office, this initiative aims to foster cooperation in cultural, educational, healthcare, and humanitarian areas. Four partnerships have already been formed, including agreements between Kyiv region and Washington/Utah, Zhytomyr and Indiana, and Chernihiv and Minnesota.
As these developments unfold, concerns persist about potential policy changes if Donald Trump wins the 2025 U.S. presidential election. Trump has suggested pressuring Ukraine to cede territory or abandon NATO aspirations for a quicker war resolution. The pro-Trump Republican faction previously delayed aid, which some argue contributed to Ukraine’s loss of Avdiivka.
Russia News
The Kremlin is showing concern over Russia’s demographic issues, worsened by losses in Ukraine. Russian officials are supporting a ban on “child-free propaganda” – content promoting lifestyles without children. A bill to ban such content among minors was introduced in 2022 but later removed. The government may be using indirect methods to promote “traditional” values and increase birth rates. Recently, a court in Tver Oblast banned small social media pages with “child-free” memes, claiming they contradict current legislation.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Troops+1130 638140 |
Tanks+14 8705 |
Artillery+23 18177 |
Arm.VEH+13 17093 |
Aircraft 369 |
Heli 328 |
Ships 28 |
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
In a series of significant developments, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly rejected a request from the Ministry of Defense to declare another mobilization wave in spring 2024. According to The Wall Street Journal, Putin’s decision is likely aimed at avoiding political backlash, opting instead to maintain voluntary recruitment efforts. This move comes despite Russian officials’ belief that mobilization is inevitable due to insufficient manpower to achieve Russia’s goals in Ukraine.
The Kremlin, however, maintains that current voluntary recruitment measures are adequate. Putin’s decision reflects a delicate balance between military needs and domestic political stability, as the Russian leader appears wary of repeating the societal backlash that followed the September 2022 partial mobilization.
In a related development, Putin discussed plans on September 18 to improve Russia’s military training system. The initiative aims to staff new military districts, including the reformed Moscow and Leningrad districts, with trained personnel. Putin emphasized the need for cooperation between regional and federal authorities and mentioned utilizing various resources for training, including pre-conscription organizations and military universities.
On the international front, the Indian government reported the release of several of the 91 Indian nationals who were tricked into fighting for Russian forces in Ukraine. BBC interviews revealed that agents had lured poor Indian citizens with false promises of jobs and money, with many sent to the frontlines with minimal training. At least nine of these individuals have reportedly died. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had previously secured a pledge from Putin to return these volunteers during a visit to Russia in July 2024.
In a move to bolster Russia’s military capabilities, Putin met with the country’s Military-Industrial Commission to discuss increasing drone production for the war in Ukraine. The Russian leader claimed that Russia delivered 140,000 drones to its forces in 2023 and aims to produce 1.4 million in 2024. Putin praised private “people’s defense industry” initiatives partnering with state enterprises and visited a drone production facility in St. Petersburg.
While Putin asserted that all drones undergo extensive testing, a DW investigation suggests some may be tested on Ukrainian civilians. Russian military bloggers have criticized state-produced drones while praising private initiatives. This push for drone production is part of Russia’s strategy to sustain its war effort, although Russia’s target is slightly less than Ukraine’s stated goal of producing two million drones in the same year.
In a related development, a Russian military blogger shared footage on September 19 showing the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade testing the “Karakurt” drone. Made by Kalashnikov Concern, this drone reportedly has a one-kilometer range and can fly for twenty minutes, making it useful for quick tactical reconnaissance.
Russia’s Allies
On September 19, Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk Oblast occupation administration, met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. They discussed joint youth programs and creating a center for Belarusian goods in occupied Donetsk. Pushilin also met with Igor Sergeenko, Chairman of Belarus’ House of Representatives, about youth cooperation. Pushilin mentioned that children from occupied Donetsk are currently in Minsk. These meetings may indicate increased Belarusian involvement in Russian efforts to deport Ukrainian children, a practice Belarus has previously participated in.
Controlling the Narrative and Russian Propaganda
Ukrainian officials reported ongoing Russian efforts to infiltrate Ukraine’s information space via Telegram. The Center for Strategic Communications identified a Telegram channel linked to Russian military intelligence that targeted Ukrainian military personnel with propaganda and spying attempts. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate also discovered eight fake chatbots imitating their official bot, which Russians are using to mislead Ukrainians in occupied territories who try to share information with Ukrainian intelligence.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com