UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
Summary of the Events
UAF continue their slow march towards Svatove and Kreminna in eastern Luhansk while RF continue their slow march on Avdiivka and Bakhmut in Donetsk. UAF have held back RF from any significant advancements in Donetsk though.
Eastern Kharkiv / North-Western Luhansk Front (UAF Main Objective)
Russia continues to reinforce their forces in this region by moving troops that retreated from western Kherson region and bringing in new recruits. RF are gathering in Luhansk city and the towns of Krasne and Simeikyne 20 miles southeast of Luhansk city. The remnants of the Russian airborne units that were defending western Kherson region have been transferred to Luhansk city.
UAF have reached the outskirts of Novoselivske putting them only 2 miles from their first target of Kuzemivka and 15 miles from their main objective of Svatove.
Donetsk Front (RF Main Objective)
RF continue their main fighting towards capturing Bakhmut but made very little progress at great expense of troops. RF only inched closer to Klishchivka to surround Bakhmut on the south. But UAF may have returned and placed Mayorsk back into contention which RF had taken a week ago. Mayorsk controls the southern end of Highway T0513 which leads directly to Bakhmut, making it a strategic city to hold. There was also heavy fighting in the vicinity of Avdiivka, but UAF are holding their ground.
Zaporizhia – Eastern Kherson Front (RF Secondary Objective to Secure Southern Occupied Regions)
RF that retreated from western Kherson are arriving in Hulyaipole to reinforce this front which Russia believes will be the next UAF counter-offensive to retake Melitopol, rather than cross the Dnipro River from western Kherson. RF that have just finished their training in Brest, Belarus, are likely on their way to this theater as well.
RF are shelling communities in Zaproizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv. In Zaporizhia, UAF near Hulyaipole are under constant attack and RF conducted a missile strike in Zaporizhia city hitting an aircraft engine manufacturing plant.
Other News
Russia and Iran have completed a deal to build Iranian drones directly in Russia. This will allow Russia to dramatically increase their stock hold to continue their attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. UAF have a 70% success rate of immobilizing these drones before they attack, but with sheer numbers, more and more will break through for damage.
The Russian prison population has dropped 6.5% while detention centers are remaining constant showing that the reduction of the prison population is not the result of a drop in crime. It is common knowledge that the Wagner private army led by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin is actively recruiting prisoners to swell their ranks.
Russian media are promoting videos showing men dressed in Russian uniforms robbing Ukrainians in occupied territories and making plans to steal from Russian soldiers. Russia claims this is evidence that Ukraine is releasing criminals into Russian-controlled border regions. But his is most likely a ploy to support the false claim that it is Ukrainian criminals who are committing atrocities against Ukrainians, and not Russian soldiers.
Russia has begun repairing television towers in occupied regions to increase their television propaganda reporting in the regions. Russia attempted to coopt Ukrainian media personalities, but they have refused forcing Russia to bring in media personnel from Russia.
Russia has created a new department within their national police force to focus on tracking down Ukrainian partisans in occupied territories.
Russia has found it difficult to repair infrastructure they destroyed in occupied territories. For example, they were unable to restore railway access to Kherson the eight months they occupied the city, but Ukraine was able to restore it within ten days.
Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Russia is planning several false-flag incidents in Belarus to cause Belarus to declare war on Ukraine. But their assessment remains that Belarus is unlikely to join in the war against Ukraine directly beyond their current role of assistance.
Half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed by recent Russian attacks leaving millions of Ukrainians with heat as winter approaches.
Russia continues to put Europe under risk of a radiation disaster by shelling near the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant over the weekend after the International Atomic Energy Agency refused to recognize Russian control over the plant.
International Assistance
Belgium, Finland, Germany, Slovakia, Luxembourg, and Sweden pledged to send financial assistance to Ukraine to rebuild their energy sector and provide funds for first aid kits, firefighting equipment, water trucks, and buses.
Republican party members of the U.S. House of Representatives, have introduced a bill to audit funds that the U.S. have supplied to Ukraine. This bill, if passed, will ensure that U.S. aid sent to Ukraine will be used in the war effort and not line the pockets of corrupt officials. This will not deter U.S. assistance to the Ukraine war effort but will enhance its impact as it will be more difficult to steal these funds. Oversight is good and makes common sense.
Israel has joined in defending Ukraine without losing their neutral position. Israel is supplying weapons and strategic materials to NATO countries to replenish their stocks they have provided to Ukraine.
The U.S., through the U.S. Agency for International Development, pledged $20 million to assist Ukraine in shipping grain.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made his first international trip to visit Kyiv showing that he intends to continue UK support of Ukraine’s war effort. Sunak pledged that the UK would continue to support Ukraine as long as it takes for them to win the war.
Spain has provided Ukraine with fourteen new electric generators to Ukraine.
Sweden provided Ukraine with $280 million worth of military equipment. It includes air defense systems, vehicles, and ammo. In addition, they also provided $52 million in humanitarian assistance.
For the first time in history, a New Zealand defense minister visited Ukraine. Peeni Henare visited Ukraine to discuss bilateral cooperation in the defense sector. New Zealand offered to provide training for Ukrainian forces and supply demining experts.