UAF – Ukrainian Forces
RF – Russian Forces
Summary of the Events
Both sides are digging in for a protracted war.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
There is a cloud of silence over the UAF counter-offensive, but it is very likely gains have been made over the last few days. RF have been shelling positions near Tavilzhanka, Bohdanivske, and Lyman Pershyi suggesting that UAF have advanced in the region 30 miles NW of Svatove and liberated Dvorichne. The Russian Ministry of Defense also slipped and suggested UAF have liberated Kyslivke, which is only 24 miles NW of Svatove. RF have been seen arriving at the region to bolster their defenses and conduct counter-offensives themselves.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Bakhmut is experiencing the most intense fighting, up to 2000 rounds per day per person, with some reporting it is even more difficult than Mariupol. RF are continuing their attempts to surround the city, but UAF are still holding their ground inflicting great losses on RF. We received a report from an American who served with us in Uzhhorod before joining the UAF, that his division is down to thirty men and is under intense artillery fire every day. Avdiivka and Vuhledar are two other cities under intense attack.
In the Bakhmut theater, RF attacked Bila Hora on Thursday suggesting they have crossed the Siversky Donets canal in Kurdyumivka and are pushing west. RF also claimed to have captured Yakovlivka.
In the Avdiivka theater, RF claimed to have advance west from Novoselivske and reached the H20 highway. Avdiivka is critical for RF to capture as it is in range of firing artillery at occupied Donetsk city. RF have begun using incendiary munitions against UAF in violation of Protocol III of the Geneva Convention that prohibits such weapons near civilians.
UAF have been able to regain their lost positions near Vodiane.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Both sides are shelling the other side of the Dnipro River. RF are also targeting civilian and energy infrastructure targets farther in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Zaporizhia, and even as far as Cherkassy. RF continue to shell Hulyaipole, Nikopol, and Marhanets daily.
RF are building their defenses along the eastern shore of the Dnipro River and in back region of Kherson and Zaporizhia. RF moved several more Grad MLRS systems into the Zaporizhian Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) territory to intensify their attacks on Nikopol and Marhanets using the ZNPP as a defensive shield.
RF have claimed to have established positions on Potemkin Island in the Dnipro River just west of Kherson city to fire more effectively on Kherson city. This has not yet been confirmed.
UAF continue to hit RF concentration of troops and weapon depots behind enemy lines. It is reported that 240 Russian personnel and three weapon depots have been destroyed over the last few days. This has had a negative impact on the ability of Russian forces to conduct operations and on troop morale.
Russian Mobilization
Russians are concerned about another mobilization and rumors are swelling around causing panic. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov urged the Russian people to rely on communications from the Russian Ministry of Defense and not on rumors circulating around on social media. The Russian government is trying to hide the growing evidence that mobilization is still in progress. The Russian government signed a law banning all rallies against mobilization.
One way around general mobilization is the formation of territorial defense units along the border with Ukraine. The Russian government has been making absurd claims that Ukraine is preparing for an invasion of Russia and has been using this false fear to recruit local recruitment of troops.
Russia is also forcing Ukrainian prisoners in occupied territories to join the army. A report has surfaced that Ukrainian student protestors in Russian occupied territories have been placed on a list and will be forced to join the Russian army.
Evidence of continued mobilization continues to be uncovered. An intercepted audio message from a Moscow mobilization officer on Monday demanded that her employees pass out mobilization notices at night under the cover of dark.
Reports of Russian soldiers committing suicide and deserting continue to mount.
Life in Russian Occupied Territory
Russia continues to beef up the police force in occupied cities to counter the activity of partisans. Reports of looting by Russian police are reported under the guise of searching for partisan weapon depots. Ukrainians are no longer allowed to travel between settlements, and only allowed brief movement during the day within their settlement. Ukrainians under suspicion of partisan activity receive torture as is being discovered when settlements are liberated. Ukrainians are being forced to provide housing to RF and are using hospitals and elementary schools as shields to house troops.
Ukrainian children are continuing to be sent to Russia under the guise of medical treatment. More than 100 have already been deported to Chechnya alone. This is one of the signs of genocide.
Other News
Russian President Vladimir Putin made a trip across the Kerch Bridge to demonstrate it is repaired and safe for use to travel to Crimea.
Putin addressed the Russian Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights setting the stage for a protracted war with Ukraine. In his speech he used metaphors of Imperialistic Russia making his intent clear that his goal is even beyond Ukraine. It did vow that Russia will not be the first to initiate the use of nuclear weapons, even going as far to say they will not be the second. Russia may brandish their nuclear weapons, but Putin admitted it would be “crazy” to use them.
Russia resumed using Iranian-made drones after a three-week break suggesting they had complications from the cold weather they needed to address. Drones were used against Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Zhytomyr, and Zaporizhia Oblasts. Their renewed use indicates that they have solved their cold weather issues and will begin using them again against Ukraine.
Soldiers of the Belarusian Border Service and the Belarusian Armed Forces are growing increasingly dissatisfied with the Belarusian military-political leadership as they are under intense pressure to join in the war against Ukraine. The opposition of the troops will make this very unlikely.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to the frontline city of Sloviansk on Tuesday to show support for our troops who are under intense attack in the region. Time magazine named him “Person Of The Year” on Wednesday.
A Ukrainian drone struck a Russian oil depot on a military base 93 miles from the Ukraine border on Tuesday.