UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
RF – Russian Forces
RS – According to Russian Sources
Summary of the Events
In Eastern Ukraine, UAF have liberated Novoselivske and are now poised to liberate Kuzemivka next. On the Donetsk Front, it is likely that RF have captured Klishchiivka, or at least large portions of the city, threatening to encircle Bakhmut. It has been confirmed that RF have captured all of Soledar and are launching attacks from the city in all directions.
Eastern Ukraine: (Eastern Kharkiv and Western Luhansk Oblast – UAF Counter-offensive)
Ukrainian Goal – Take Svatove and Kreminna
Russian Goal – Retake territory towards Kupyansk and push back UAF from Kreminna.
Confirmed – UAF advanced to the eastern side of Novoselivske (9 miles NW of Svatove) and captured the railway station on Thursday. UAF have halted their advance waiting for reinforcement to liberate Kuzemivka next which is currently not under control from either side. RF attempted an assault on UAF in Novoselivske on Friday but were repelled. UAF advanced on Kuzemivka on Friday placing RF in peril as they have no place to fall back to in the immediate area. Video footage shows RF using thermobaric artillery systems to stop UAF advances. Such high-level assets indicate that Russia is prioritizing the defense of this area of battle. Fighting continued Saturday with UAF striking a RF command post in the area. RF are pulling reserves into the fight to compensate for their heavy losses.
There is heavy fighting between UAF and RF near Dibrova (3 miles SW of Kreminna).
RF conducted a 6-man reconnaissance into northeastern Sumy Oblast on Friday but were repelled.
UAF and RF have been involved in heavy fighting near Bilohorivka (6 miles S of Kreminna) since Thursday.
UAS – UAF repelled RF assaults near Terny (11 miles W of Kreminna) on Thursday and Friday. RF attacked UAF near Ploshchanka (9 miles NW of Kreminna) and Chervonopopivka (3 miles N of Kreminna) on Saturday.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Russian Immediate Objective: Capture Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka
Ukraine has come under criticism from Western military strategist for expending so much time, energy, weapons, and soldier’s lives in the defense of the strategically unimportant city of Bakhmut. German Intelligence reported that Ukraine is losing hundreds of soldiers every day defending Bakhmut. Ukraine has had to explain that they have built formidable defenses in Bakhmut since it became a frontline city after the invasion of 2014, and it would be a waste not to use them. But by hanging on, they have done irreparable damage to the Russian military. Ukraine also pointed out how the Russians have treated the Ukrainian civilians in other cities they have occupied and said they do not want the people of Bakhmut to suffer the same atrocities. If anyone is to blame for this opportunity to have gone to waste, it is the West who refused to give heavy weapons when the most damage could have been done to Russian forces. Bakhmut will most likely be lost before those heavy tanks make it to the frontline, and with the extensive defenses in Bakhmut, they could have inflicted a critical blow to the Russian army.
Around Soledar – It has been confirmed that RF have captured all Soledar, including the northwest district of Sil. Heavy fighting continues around Soledar as RF attempt to move beyond the city in all directions. To the north RF are pushing towards Bilohorivka (Donetsk Oblast), Vesele, Rozdolivka, and Vasyukivka. To the west RF are pushing towards Blahodatne, Krasna Hora, Pidhorodne, Paraskoviivka, and Yahidne to cut off the T0513 highway supply route into Bakhmut. RF are also attempting to capture Verkhnokamyanske (12 miles NE of Soledar).
Bakhmut – RF have made some marginal advances in the northeastern and southern regions of Bakhmut. RS claim to also be making advances in the eastern region as well. Russia may have made a major victory towards surrounding Bakhmut and eventually cutting off another important supply route into Bakhmut from the west – the T0504 highway – by capturing Klishchiivka on Thursday to the south of Bakhmut. Although the complete capture of the city as reported by Russia has not yet been confirmed, geolocated footage does confirm that RF have advanced on most of the city. RF have already begun moving towards Ivanivske and Predtechyne, which straddles the T0504 Highway; and Dyliivka, Bila Hora, and Oleksandro-Shultyne to the west, which also suggests that Klishchiivka has fallen.
Avdiivka – UAF have had more fortune in defending Avdiivka which was heavily fortified during 2014 – 2022 as it borders Donetsk city. Instead of attacking this fortress head-on, RF are attempting to encircle the city and force UAF to retreat, the same strategy they are employing against Bakhmut. But RF have had little success here. The two major targets have been Pervomaiskyi and Vodiane. RS claimed that RF broke through UAF lines at Pobieda and have taken the local train station, but this has not been confirmed. Geolocated footage shows heavy fighting at the Pervomaiskyi bridge which connects the city to Donetsk city.
Marinka – Heavy fighting continues for control of Marinka.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
All quiet on the Western Donetsk front with only one major skirmish on Friday over Novosilka (40 miles SW of Donetsk city) with UAF eventually repelling the Russian assaults.
On Thursday the news wires were abuzz about a major defeat for Ukraine. Donetsk rebel forces claimed they held a major offensive and captured four strategic cities on the Zaporizhia defense line, which if true, would force UAF to retreat from Orikhiv. The four communities claimed to have been captured were Stepove, Mala Shcherbaky, Nesteryanka, and Mala Tokmachka. Then on Friday RS claim that RF began moving closer to Orikhiv by taking Shcherbaky and Novoandriivka to the west, Novodanylivka to the south, and Bilohirya farther east. Ukraine has denied these claims and reported that they destroyed the RF that attempted these coordinated attacks. It looked like Russia had started a new major offensive and had broken through Ukrainian defense lines. But by Saturday, it was all proven to be a lie and that they were only attacked those locations but were repelled by UAF.
RF continue shelling civilian and infrastructure targets in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts even using incendiary munitions which is a war crime.
UAF destroyed their first Russian S-400 air defense system on Friday in Iline, Zaporizhia Oblast. It was not known that such a sophisticated system had been deployed beyond Crimea.
Russia is struggling to take administrative control over the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant as it is a different technology than used in Russia, and the Ukrainian staff refuses to cooperate with Russian officials.
Belarus
The situation in Belarus has just become more complicated. Russia and Belarus have been holding high-level meetings for several days now between Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin. And then Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. The main topic of discussion was how a Russian-Belarusian alliance could defeat NATO.
An attack from Belarus this Winter or Spring is still considered very unlikely as Russian troops are being deployed to Eastern Ukraine once they complete their training and there is no indication that a strike force is being formed. But with the expected second Russian mobilization to be announced soon, it is possible, but still unlikely, that they could be mobilized to Belarus to stage an invasion of Ukraine from the north in the early Fall of this year. This will also allow Russia time to replenish their stock of weapons which have been depleted to the point they are unable to launch an offensive attack anywhere until Autumn. If the attack does come, it will probably prove to be a disaster as they were not able to accomplish the feat with highly trained troops before, and now Ukraine is armed with heavier weapons supplied by the West.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Pskov Oblast deputy Artur Gayduk submitted a request to President Putin to officially end the first mobilization to put a stop to “false” claims of a second mobilization was on its way. Putin responded that he has already said the first mobilization was over, and his word should be good enough and does not need to be backed by a legal document. But enlistment centers are still open. For example, seven people were recruited from a mobilization center in Perm Krai. And university officials at the Ural Federal University have been given the responsibility to distribute mobilization orders to students at their university. In the Chechen Republic, a Russian citizen went down to the recruitment center to volunteer and was told he would have to wait a little until the second mobilization started. They told him he could not volunteer at the moment and the reason was secret.
A tank brigade currently deployed around Svatove reported that they received their military salary the first two months of their mobilization, but no salary was received for December.
The Russian Armed Forces currently have 900 cases they are trying for desertion.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Russian occupation authorities will shut down Melitopol on March 1 by not allowing anyone in or out of the city without special permission. Enerhodar, which houses Europe’s largest nuclear plant, has also been shut down in order to create a human shield. 15,000 Ukrainian citizens are trapped in Enerhodar.
Partisans attacked a home that was occupied by RF in Kyrylivka near Melitopol. Two Ukrainians were arrested on suspicion of partisan activity in Henichesk and Skadovsk. They are charged with providing information on Russian troop movements and positions.
Ukrainian parents in the occupied regions were threatened of losing their parental rights if they did not send their children back to Russian schools after the winter break which ended this Sunday. Video footage was shot of Ukrainian children dressed in Russian school uniforms shouting “I am Russian” in Mariupol.
Every day, more and more hospitals in the occupied regions are filling up with wounded Russian soldiers and closed off to the local civilians. Russia is offering high salaries to doctors to move to the occupied zones as there is a shortage.
Other News
Russia has signaled that a peace agreement fostered by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) is highly unlikely now. The OSCE was the neutral party in the first two Minsk agreements attempting to create a ceasefire and then foster peace talks between Russia and Ukraine after the Russian invasion of 2014. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has accused OSCE of being a tool of NATO and had tricked Russia into the peace talks in order to give NATO time to arm Ukraine.
The Russian government responded to reports that the U.S. is considering sending offensive weapons to Ukraine that are capable of striking targets farther away in occupied Crimea and southern Ukraine. It warned that the U.S. is escalating the war and Russia will respond in kind. The language is designed to dissuade the U.S. from providing these systems to Ukraine. But it is not believed that Russia would use nuclear weapons as China has warned Russia that if they use nuclear weapons, they could no longer support them in this conflict.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin, who leads the private army Wagner Group, are publicly coming out against each other more and more. President Putin met St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov on Wednesday to discuss St. Petersburg role in the Russian war effort. This is highly unusual as the President of Russia would not meet with a local governor on this topic, maybe a member of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), but not the President of Russia. So why was the meeting held at all and publicized. It turns out that Prigozhin is from St. Petersburg and his biggest enemy is Beglov. So, by meeting with Beglov, Putin has signaled that Prigozhin is falling out of favor and better clean up his act. But Prigozhin did not heed the message because the next day he publicly announced that his private army captured Klishchiivka without any help from MoD troops. Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov interjected himself in the fight by disavowing that Wagner Troops belonged within the structure of the Russian army. This was another message to Prigozhin who relies on Russian military equipment controlled by the MoD to conduct their operations.
Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the Chechen Republic, also has his own little private army of Chechen fighters. He came out against the MoD recent new personal hygiene rules which requires Russian soldiers to be clean shaven. He responded that Islam requires their fighters to have beards and that for them, this was a holy war. He made it clear that Chechnya expects to be given some of Ukraine’s territory to grow food for Chechnya and expects to force the local inhabitants to accept Islam.
Russian Commander of the Airborne Forces, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, was replaced on Friday with the First Deputy Head of the Russian General Staff Academy Lieutenant General Oleg Makarevich. The action was controversial as Teplinsky is a highly experienced officer and Makarevich has not conflict experience and has only served in the roles of military theory. It has been learned that Teplinsky had refused to send his paratroopers to fight for Bakhmut as infantry soldiers claiming they were not trained for such fighting. And thus, his dismissal was to place the Air Force under the command of General Gerasimov as well.
U.S. Intelligence released a report estimating the Russian military casualties in Ukraine has reached 188,000. Since the normal ratio of injured to killed is 3:1, this suggests that around 47,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in less than a year, which is three times the number of Russian soldiers were killed in the war in the whole Afghanistan War, and nearly as much as American soldiers died in the eight years of the Vietnam War.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He called on Western powers to provide heavy tanks to Ukraine, focusing on Germany releasing their Leopard tanks. But Germany says they will not supply heavy tanks unless the U.S. provides their Abrams tanks. Meanwhile, Russia is preparing to send their new T-14 tanks into Ukraine. European Defense Ministers met at Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany on Friday to discuss providing Ukraine with heavy tanks. The meeting ended with no consensus on the topic beyond that they all support Ukraine.
International Support
CIA Director William Burns met with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Friday to brief him on U.S. intelligence concerning what Russia is planning over the coming weeks and months.
France had banned Russian Television (RT) from broadcasting in France early on in the conflict. But this Friday they froze all the bank account of RT France which resulted in Russia threatening to do the same to all French television companies operating in Russia.