UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – According to Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Source
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
UAF are for the most part holding their positions against the renewed Russian offensive. The situation in Bakhmut has slightly improved for UAF who have secured the use of at least one, if not both, major supply routes into Bakhmut. RF have made some marginal victories to the north of Avdiivka, but UAF have regained the initiative around Vuhledar and are pushing RF back. There is also some evidence that UAF have gained a foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River near Kakhovka.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Kupyansk – The current battle is for Hryankivka which UAF held over the last two days. RF had taken Dvorichne from the north and are moving down on Hryankivka. RS claim that RF captured Lyman Pershyi on Tuesday and are moving on Masyutivka in order to attack Hryankivka from the south as well. RS also claim that RF have nearly taken Synkivka to the south as well. There is no confirmation of these claims though. But RF did not conduct any ground assaults on Wednesday in the area although they did continue to fire artillery and mortar rounds.
Kreminna – All indications point to this region being the main focus of Russia’s planned major offensive which could be launched any day now. In preparation, large numbers of Russian forces are accumulating in the region and RF are firing a record number of artillery and mortar attacks to soften up UAF defenses. RF are attacking UAF directly west of Kreminna in the Dibrova forest and towards Kuzmyne (2 miles SW). RF are also attempting to push south towards Shypylivka (5 miles SE) and Bilohorivka (6 miles S). But UAF are reportedly holding their ground in these two directions and repelling the assaults, with the possible exception of the Dibrova Forest. But to the north RF are having more success gaining ground west of Ploshchanka (9 miles NW) and moving towards Nevske (11 miles NW).
UAF conducted an attack with HIMARS against a Russian concentration around Kadiivka on Monday.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – The situation around Bakhmut has improved a little. UAF have denied that RF captured Krasna Hora over the weekend and geolocated footage indicates that UAF are still in the western outskirts. This also suggests that RS have been exaggerating over the successes of RF north of Bakhmut and the M03 highway to Slovyansk may still be open. UAF counterattacked around Ivanivske which has also reopened the T0504 highway to supply UAF in Bakhmut. But in the city of Bakhmut itself, RF are slowly moving forward each day by a few houses in the northwest.
Siversk – RF continue their drive north from captured Soledar and have possibly captured Rozdolivka and have moved within a half-mile of Vasyukivka.
Avdiivka – RF continue their efforts to encircle Avdiivka instead of attacking the well-defended city head on. Some progress was to the north with RF having entered Novobakhmutivka and possibly capturing the city as RS claimed that RF have moved to the high ground over Novoselivka Druha. To the southwest, UAF repelled RF assaults in Vodiane and towards Pervomaiskyi.
Marinka – RS claim that RF have taken two-thirds of the city and are fighting for every remaining building. RF are changing their tactics and are attempting to encircle the remaining UAF troops in Marinka.
Vuhledar – RF have abandoned all ground assaults on Vuhledar after taking a very costly beating and UAF have already began a counterassault and have begun to push RF back away from Vuhledar.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
RF have made no ground assaults over the last two days in Southern Ukraine, but continue to shell UAF along the border. Satellite footage shows an increase in defensive trenches by RF over the last month as they dig in for a coming Ukrainian Spring offensive. There is evidence that UAF have crossed the Dnipro River and established a foothold on the eastern bank. This is based on a report by RS of RF attacking UAF at a settlement on the eastern side of the river.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
R-MoD has begun recruiting criminals from prison as soldiers by offering amnesty in the same way that the private Wagner Group forces had done. They are not allowing Wagner Group to continue in this fashion, but Russia sees the advantage of using prisoners as cannon fodder in front of regular troops.
The US government has warned US citizens who also carry Russian passports not to travel to Russia as they could be drafted into the army.
Although Russia claimed their main reason for invading Ukraine was the encroaching of NATO influence over Ukraine. But the fact that they have reduced their forces along NATO countries by 20% in order to mobilize them to Ukraine, shows that they are really not in fear of NATO.
Life in Occupied Ukraine
Partisans attacked a car with explosive devices in Nova Kakhovka last Saturday carrying two Russian military personnel and two Russian special service representatives. Two of them were killed and the other two were seriously injured.
43 facilities within Russian territory have been identified holding 6000 Ukrainian children who are being forced into adoption. This is a war crime.
The occupied territories were forcefully integrated into the Russian insurance system officially on Tuesday. The insurance will begin operating on March 1.
Russian occupation authorities have created a commission to issue fines to Ukrainian parents who refuse to send their children to Russian schools and are educating their children online in Ukrainian schools. They are raiding Ukrainian homes to identify children who have missed their classes.
Other News
Russia is planning on developing a list of Telegram channels that are hostile to Russia and label them as such to dissuade their citizens from watching those channels relying on patriotism and self-censorship.
Ukraine is suffering from a lack of ammunition for the weapons supplied by the West. Whereas Russia is firing 50,000 rounds of artillery a day supplied by their allies in Iran and North Korea (and possibly China), Ukraine is sparingly able to fire only 6000 rounds a day. And the West does not have the capability to keep up with even that and soon Ukraine will run out of ammunition if the West does not speed up production.
International Support
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that the 54 member states of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group will continue to support Ukraine in the long run. But the Washington Post reported on Monday that US government officials are privately impressing on Ukraine that military aid cannot go on forever sending a mixed signal. US defense planners are urging Ukraine to surrender Bakhmut and fall back so that they can better launch another counter offensive. But this is such bad advice as Russia will not stop at Bakhmut and continue on, and Bakhmut is the best defended position which is costing RF many casualties. Better to stay there and damage Russia rather than fall back and have poorer defense.
Iran and Russia are working together in creating and sharing technology on high-precision bombs, drones, and attack aircraft in violation of international sanctions. Iran is also supplying Russia with artillery and mortar rounds.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.