UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF are slowly encircling Bakhmut which will likely force a Ukrainian withdrawal over the next few days. Everywhere else, UAF are holding their grounds bringing the Russia offensive to a halt.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Kupyansk – No confirmed action in this sector
Svatove/Kreminna – RF conducted limited attacks along the line from Novoselivske to Bilohorivka suggesting that they just do not have the reserves necessary to increase their scale and intensity, but it is still too early to say Russia has lost the initiative. Geolocated footage did indicate that RF made some marginal advances west of Chervonopopivka.
Geolocated footage was released on the aftermath of a UAF rocket attack on an ammunition warehouse in Kadiivka.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Siversk – With the exception of an unsuccessful RF assault on Vasyukivka, the drive north to Siversk has come to a halt as RF concentrate on Bakhmut.
Avdiivka – RF conducted unsuccessful operations near Kamianka, Pervomaiskyi, Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske. RF attempted to push north of Opytne in an attempt to encircle Avdiivka, but their BMPs ran into a minefield and were destroyed. But it does confirm that RF have pushed into the swampy area north of Opytne.
Marinka – RS claimed that RS gained a new foothold in Marinka and have broken through the defense line at Pobieda, but this is not confirmed.
Vuhledar – No confirmed ground assaults were made against Vuhledar or the surrounding areas.
Bakhmut – The situation in Bakhmut continues to worsen as RF continue to make slow advances within Bakhmut from the north, east, and south. UAF retreated from the northern outskirts as RF advanced into the region. But more disturbing is the near encirclement of the city as RF are attacking Orikhove-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Berkhivka, and Yahidne on the northwest; and Chasiv Yar, Bohdanivka, and Ivanivske on the southwest. The most disturbing news is that RF have begun attacking Bohdanivka (circled in red below) to cut off even the country road supplies routes in Bakhmut.
Southern Ukraine: (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, and Western Donetsk)
Ukrainian officials are reporting that there is evidence on the ground that Russia is planning an offensive against Kherson and Zaporizhia before Ukraine launches their own counteroffensive. Tens of thousands of RF have been seen moving into this area from Mariupol.
UAF are also preparing for an offensive in this region. Daily attacks against Ochakiv are becoming less intense as UAF are shelling the Kinburn Spit forcing RF to fall back. RF are also falling back along the Dnipro River due to increased shelling by UAF. UAF have also landed forces on most of the islands in the Dnipro River. UAF are striking positions in the rear hitting RF concentrations such as Polohy.
Russian Mobilization and Troop Morale
Armenian police have arrested Russian citizen Nikita Kamensky who is wanted in Russia for painting anti-war slogans in a Moscow metro station. Armenia is an ally of Russia. A student in St. Petersburg also faces criminal charges for breaking a window at a military recruitment center. A father in Efremov is being prosecuted because his minor daughter drew an anti-war graphic in her school art class. Another Russian citizen was sentenced to four years in prison for setting a fire in a backroom of a military recruitment center in Volgograd.
Russia is losing 150 tanks a month in the war against Ukraine and can only produce 20 a month in their factories. Russia has become dependent on supplies from North Korea and Iran to make up some of the difference. Ukraine is also producing more military drones than Russia.
Russia has begun offering one-year contracts allowing foreigners to join their military rather than the standard five-year contract. But this will have no real impact because Russian law prohibits contract soldiers from quitting until the conflict is over.
Activity in Ukrainian Occupied Territories
Ukraine has imposed sanctions on 109 Russian citizens involved in the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children to Russian territory.
Russian occupation officials are forcing schools in occupied Kherson region to begin teaching pro-Russian history. Ukrainian students in occupied Zaporizhia are being forced to write letters of support to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine and to attend a daily one-hour indoctrination course that present the Russian framing of the war in Ukraine.
Belarus
Belarusian partisans painted graffiti on a Belarusian military aircraft last Sunday. Satellite imagery shows no structural damage was done to the aircraft.
Other News
Russian forces are losing on the ground because of the modern weapons supplied to Ukraine from the western countries. The real Russian battle is no longer being fought in Ukraine, but in the western press and in the minds of American and Europeans who are beginning to tire of this war. Russia pulled out of the START treaty in order to create a scare of nuclear war being broadcast on American and European news services to create an anti-war movement in the west. And it is working as even my favorite news source, Fox News, has taken the bait and is aiding Russia by broadcasting such nonsense. This information war is also in preparation for some false flag attacks as Russia is accusing Ukraine of staging its own false flag attacks on their own nuclear power facilities to purportedly blame it on Russia. Russia is the one planning these attacks and wants to set the groundwork to blame it on Ukraine. Russia is also running an information operation accusing Ukraine of broadening the war with an attack on Russian forces in Transnistria, Moldova. The West must stand firm against these ploys and defeat Russia now while we can. US defense officials continue to assess that it is extraordinarily unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is running an information operation at falsely portraying Russia as being open to peace negotiations. This is simply a ploy to get the western allies to pressure Ukraine to the negotiation table while they reinformed their forces in Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is a conduit in this information operation with his upcoming trip to China to discuss the Chinese peace plan. But in reality, he is meeting with China to discuss ways to evade western sanctions on Russia through China and Belarus.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held another information operation by addressing the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Russian national police. He lauded them for their work in defending the borders of Russia and their efforts to stop Ukrainian sabotage teams from entering Russia. This information operation is intended to create support among the Russian people by instilling a fear that Ukraine is planning on an invasion of Russia.
RF conducted a military drone attack against civilian apartment buildings in the western Ukrainian city of Khmelnitsky in the early hours of Monday morning killing two civilians and injuring four others. The attack was conducted in two waves, the first wave being taken out by Ukrainian air defenses but allowing the second wave through.
International Support
The UN Human Rights Council met on Monday calling on the unity of member states to condemn Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and to extend a probe into war crimes committed by Russia.
Ukraine and Saudi Arabia signed a grain deal as Saudi diplomats visited Kyiv on Monday. Saudi Arabia also presented some information on combating Iranian drones and promised $400 million in humanitarian aid.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a visit to Kyiv and pledged another $1 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.