UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
Except for some very marginal advances in and around Bakhmut, RF have been stalled and may be nearing culmination of their Winter Offensive. The fighting has decreased in Bakhmut and increased around Kupyansk and Avdiivka suggesting that RF are changing their priorities to a more defensive position awaiting the Ukrainian Spring Offensive.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continued along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, but no confirmed advances were made from either side. Russia has increased the number of attacks towards Kupyansk suggesting it has become a new priority.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut – The UGS has stated that the situation in Bakhmut has stabilized as the number of RF assaults in and around the city has fallen 50-70%. It seems that the Battle for Bakhmut is nearing culmination, but conventional RF are nearby and could support the Wagner Group forces and keep the offensive alive.
Within the city RF have been confirmed gaining some ground in the north and southwest moving towards the center of the city. RF have also been confirmed having advanced towards the T0504 Highway just south of Ivanivske. But UAF are still freely moving in and out of the city on the T0504.
But UAF are also now making advances in their defense of Bakhmut. It is confirmed that they have retaken parts of the E40 highway north of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka – RF have increased their attacks around Avdiivka as the priority seems to be shifting from Bakhmut to Avdiivka. RF seem to be attempting to encircle the city rather attack the heavily defended city as they had attempted to do in Bakhmut at first. But RF made no confirmed advances over the last two days.
Marinka – UAF continue to hold onto a portion of Marinka.
Vuhledar – RF made no attacks on the Vuhledar area on Friday, and the few attacks they made on Saturday were repelled.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
The UGS corrected its statement that RF had retreated from Nova Kakhovka on Thursday admitting that RF were just rotating troops.
Ukraine is silent about what is happening in Southern Ukraine as it is probably where the coming spring offensive will take place. But RS have noted that UAF have been conducting reconnaissance all along the Zaporizhian line testing the RF defenses.
Russian Military and Mobilization
Crimean occupation head Sergey Aksyonov has started to form his own private army called “Convoy”. It is rather small now at 300 soldiers, but they have been deployed to Kherson Oblast.
The Russian government has created a working group to discuss seizing industrial enterprises that are operating inefficiently as justified under martial law. But this law is probably meant to deal with the opposition rather than improve military production.
Russian authorities arrested a student in Leningrad who allegedly conducted an arson attack on a military enlistment office. Another student accused of arson of an enlistment office in Dagestan was sentenced to two years in prison.
Russian courts are currently full of 500 cases of military desertion. But one deserter had his five-year prison sentence suspended because the soldier agreed to return to the battlefield. A colonel was sentenced to 6.5 years in prison for attempting to flee to Kazakhstan.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russian occupation authorities in Zaporizhia have held the first congress of the “Young South” youth movement meant to indoctrinate the youth of Ukraine in Russian propaganda. Russia has allocated $232 million to such organizations.
The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine released a report accusing both RF and UAF of executing and mistreating prisoners of war.
Belarus
Belarus announced they are nearing the end of their military exercises.
Other News
Russian President Vladimir Putin has launched another information operation to discourage citizens of the West from supporting Ukraine. In a television interview, he claimed that Ukraine fires 5000 artillery shells a day, but the US only produces 500 each day which means they cannot continue to supply Ukraine indefinitely. He claimed that Russia will build over 1600 tanks in 2023 and by the end of the year Russia will have three times the number of tanks as Ukraine. But all of this is wishful thinking. The US economy is ten times the size of Russia’s and is not under international sanctions. The West could easily gear up their military production to far outpace whatever Russia can build. Let’s take tanks, for example. Currently Russia is producing only 20 tanks a month. At that rate it would take them six years to reach their goal of 1600 tanks. And they have already lost three months of 2023. Under international sanctions, they will not be able to increase their production to reach that goal. More likely they will take older tanks, even memorials, and refit them. But these tanks will be no match for the Abrams and Leopards tanks being delivered to Ukraine. And this does not take into account that Russia is currently losing 150 tanks on average each month. So even if they were able to produce 1600 tanks, they would only be replacing what they have lost.
Putin is also announced that they are mobilizing nuclear weapons to Belarus to bring another scare for western news to falsely proclaim – that we are nearing nuclear war. But Chinese President Xi Jinping made it “very, very clear” to Putin that he should not deploy nuclear weapons.
Russia struck a humanitarian aid center in Kostyantynivka (15 miles of Bakhmut) killing three IDP elderly women who were taking shelter there.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.