UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The Russian Winter Offensive is coming to an end and did not come close to reaching its goal. Already, UAF are conducting successful counteroffensives in Eastern Ukraine and around Bakhmut.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
RF conducted limited attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna defense line on Wednesday and Thursday, and then launched a concerted assault over the weekend. Russian Special Forces, Spetsnaz Brigade, have been seen in the battles as well signifying that the Russian priority is still to take all of Luhansk Oblast and move on Donetsk Oblast from the north as well as the south. RF are fighting in more doctrinally sound formations using classic tactics resulting in fewer casualties than in other regions of the war.
The heaviest fighting has been around Bilohorivka (8.5 miles S of Kreminna) but RS report UAF have made advances in the region which is yet unconfirmed. UAF have made confirmed limited advances towards Chervonopopivka (7.5 miles NW of Kreminna) and Verkhnokamyanske (5 miles E of Siversk). It has been confirmed that RF captured Kuzemivka (12.5 miles NE of Svatove) on Thursday.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut
RF continue to decrease their intensity of attacks on Bakhmut, most likely because of the huge casualties suffered by the Wagner Group forces who are conducting the fight for Bakhmut. Both US and UK intelligence reports that half of the 60,000 Wagner Group forces that started the Battle for Bakhmut have been killed, wounded, or captured. And thousands who were offered a pardon from their prison terms will soon complete their six-month contracts and will return home.
Conventional RF have moved along the lines north and south of Bakhmut, to allow the remaining Wagner Group forces to focus on just taking the city and not worry about a Ukrainian counter-offensive. A heavy snowfall on Saturday also has slowed down the attack with no confirmed advances by RF since then.
A UAF missile attack on the AZOM industrial complex in the northern region of Bakhmut confirms that RF have captured the complex. RF have made confirmed advances from the south of the city center and have taken a building just 1300 feet from the city administration building. RS claim that RF have already taken the city administration building, but that has not been confirmed. RF have also made confirmed advances from the north of the city center.
A Ukrainian counter-offensive on Friday resulted in UAF regaining their lost positions south of Ivanivske (4.5 miles SW) securing the T0504 Highway supply line. Even Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin admits that Ukraine has no intention of withdrawing from Bakhmut.
Avdiivka
As RF assaults continue to decrease in and around Bakhmut, they are increasing around Avdiivka where RF have been able to make some significant progress towards encircling Avdiivka, but at great loss of life. RF captured Vesele (4 miles N) on Friday and have made some marginal gains advancing north from Vodiane (5 miles SW)
Marinka
RF have continued their fight for Marinka now beginning its 14th month with little progress. But this has been done at the expense of the Battle for Avdiivka. On Saturday, nearly 25% of all Russian attacks in Ukraine were made on Marinka. RS claim that as a result, RF have taken the city administration building, but that has not been confirmed.
Vuhledar
RF have not conducted any confirmed ground attacks around Vuhledar over the last five days. But RF have shelled the city. UAF are conducting reconnaissance operations looking for weaknesses on the Russian defense line.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
RF continue to build defenses in Southern Ukraine in preparation for a Ukrainian Spring Offensive. Crimea and the airport in Berdyansk have seen heavy defenses built. But it has also been observed that RF are spreading themselves out as UAF continue to attack RF positions throughout Southern Ukraine. UAF shelled Russians positions near Oleshky on Tuesday. On Wednesday they struck a railway depot in Melitopol. On Thursday they destroyed a Russian electronic warfare system in Nova Kakhovka. And then on Saturday they struck the railway depot in Melitopol again.
RF are not remaining silent as they continue their daily shelling in Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia Oblasts. RF dropped a guided aerial bomb on Beryslav, Kherson Oblast, from a Su-35 aircraft on Wednesday.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi visited on Wednesday the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) for the second time since it was captured by RF. He reported that the military activity around the ZNPP is increasing, and the situation remains dangerous. He also noted that the number of staff working at the plant is at a dangerously low level.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has seized upon the story of the two-year prison sentence against Aleksey Moskalev because his 12-year-old daughter drew an anti-war picture in her school art class. Moskalev has fled into hiding and his daughter has been placed in a juvenile shelter (her mother is estranged from the family). Prigozhin came out in defense of Moskalev calling the arrest and detention tragic. This is ironic as Prigozhin was one of the biggest supporters of the law used against Moskalev which prohibits discrediting RF. It is another sign that Prigozhin is positioning himself for a political future.
Prison labor is being used to expand the war production capabilities of Russia. Prisoners are now being used as free labor for the defense industrial conglomerate Rostec.
Russia will conduct its annual spring conscription cycle which normally conscripts 134,000 Russian men. But this year they have set a goal of 147,000. The additional 13,000 will presumably be trained in Belarus. But these new troops will likely not be sent to fight against Ukraine due to Putin’s concerns for the stability of his regime. He did not deploy the conscripts from the 2022 spring conscription cycle for the same reason but instead called up reserves to cover the gaps caused by Ukraine’s Fall 2022 offensive. This time Putin will possibly try to recruit 2022 conscripts who have completed their training to voluntarily join the fight in Ukraine. Russian officials continue to state that they have no plans for a formal second wave of mobilization. Instead, Russia will be depending more and more on private armies being raised up like the Wagner Group forces.
A journalistic research project interviewing Russian female soldiers has revealed that many of these women complain of being raped by their Russian commanders.
Russia Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree to establish a new plant for the repair of rocket and artillery systems. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu met with his team to develop a strategy to increase the rate of munition supplies at existing factories.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russian occupation authorities in Luhansk Oblast have begun importing Russian prosecutors instead of using local Ukrainians to further integrate the region into Russia.
Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast are tearing down monuments that commemorate Ukrainian achievements and are erecting in their place monuments to the Russian victories of World War II.
Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) authorities have passed three laws to dismantle their rule over Luhansk Oblast and turn it into an official Oblast within Russia in preparation for the September 2023 elections.
Russia has coerced prisoners in the occupied territories to receive Russian passports by allowing them to receive social benefits from Russia upon their release and to be able to register for employment services.
Russian occupation officials announced that 100 children and their mothers will be sent to a camp in Moscow for rest. These “rests” are cover for the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.
Belarus
The Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will hold its annual joint military exercises in Belarus this year. It is unclear whether CSTO member states Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan will participate due to Russia’s occupation of Belarus and the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, attempting to convince the world that Belarus is still sovereign, stated that all RF training in Belarus are under the command of the Belarus military. He called for peace negotiations offering to mediate. But this offer was immediately rejected by Russia who is not interested in serious negotiations.
Belarusian and Russian troops continue training in Belarus together.
Other News
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Wednesday. They are in the final stages of signing a cooperation agreement. Iran will provide weapon systems to Russia in exchange for Russian Su-35 attack aircraft.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated last Monday that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be launched in April or May depending on weather conditions and the delivery of promised weaponry from the West. Although Ukraine has received most of what European countries have promised, Ukraine has not been receiving equipment promised by the U.S. from even last summer.
Ukrainian officials reported that they do not intend to forcibly expel the Russian-controlled Ukrainian Orthodox Church – Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) from the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra Monastery but have ordered them to leave on their own after not renewing their lease. The UOC-MP have stated they do not intend to comply with their eviction.
Russian is compiling a plan to build an anti-Western coalition to end the United States’ dominance in world affairs. China had refused to participate in such a plan though last week during the presidential meetings.
Hungarian President Viktor Orban has floated the idea of sending peacekeeping forces into Ukraine, but Russia has publicly stated that those peacekeeping forces would be targeted by RF.
The Russian Winter Offensive is officially a failure as they were not able to seize all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by their March 31 goal. They have only made some marginal gains towards that goal. The offensive is winding down as Russia must now begin to prepare for Ukraine’s Spring Offensive.
Prominent Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin was assassinated during a public presentation he was making in St. Petersburg on Sunday. A woman presented to him a statue as a gift moments before it exploded killing him and wounding 30 audience members. Rumors are circulation that Russian authorities knew about the assassination plans but allowed it to occur as Fomin is a big supporter of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. Instead, Russia blamed the attack on Ukrainian terrorists. But seeing through the betrayal, Prigozhin refused to blame Ukraine or even the supposedly arrested woman Daria Dugina who Russia claims presented the statue to Fomin. But not wanting to accuse Russian officials directly, he suggested that it could have been carried out by Russian partisans who oppose the war.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.