UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF continue to fight along the entire frontline, but the potential, and thus the number, of attacks are declining. RF are not making serious advances anywhere on the frontline and are mostly focused on distracting and dispersing UAF in preparation for the coming Ukrainian Spring Offensive. The Russian offensive has choked around Avdiivka and RF still have not been able to take Marinka despite reducing the city to rubble. Even in Bakhmut, the assaults have decreased in some areas and completely stagnated in others.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
Fighting continues along the Eastern Ukraine front but neither side made any confirmed advances over the last three days.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
Bakhmut
RF continued to make marginal advances in and around Bakhmut over the last three days, but the fighting has drastically decreased as RF are tiring and turning to a defensive posture in preparation for the Ukrainian Spring Offensive. Some RS went as far as to claim that RF had captured all Bakhmut, but UAF are still holding central Bakhmut and inflicting heavy casualties on RF. The only confirmed gain by RF over the last three days was to the south with RF advancing closer to the T0504 Highway. To the north of Bakhmut, RF made some marginal advances towards Khromove (1.25 miles W) which if captured would encircle the city. RF also moved north of Sacco I Vanzetti (9.5 miles N).
Avdiivka/Marinka
RF assaults around Avdiivka have fallen to a third of the level as last week, but the Battle for Marinka continues to intensify with a quarter of all RF assaults in this city alone. RF have made some marginal advances in the southwest portions of the city over the last three days.
Vuhledar
RF conducted no confirmed assaults around Vuhledar.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
RF have made no confirmed ground assaults in Southern Ukraine but are mostly focused on building defenses in preparation for the Ukrainian Spring Offensive. RF launched two missiles over the past few days against civilian targets in Beryslav. A father and daughter were killed in one of the attacks.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Not only has RF virtually stopped all ground assaults, the use of artillery is also absent on many places on the frontline. Part of this is a shortage of ammunition, but mainly the attacks have ceased to prepare for the coming Ukrainian Counteroffensive. RF mainly use artillery to reduce communities they plan to attack to rubble, and since they are no longer planning assaults, the need is much lower. UAF are also limiting their artillery fire, only using it to weaken RF they are targeting for better position.
As the Russian Winter Offensive is coming to culmination with nothing to really show for their effort, Russia is entering a dangerous phase of infighting amongst the ruling clans – the pro-war camp and the anti-war camp. Nationalist leader Igor Girkin has formed the “Club of Angry Patriots” to help Russia win the war and avoid internal conflict. Girkin warned that if the situation does not improve on the frontlines, Russia will face defeat and may experience a pro-Western coup. The anti-war faction is pushing for a peace settlement to end the sanctions that are crippling their business enterprises. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin has taken the bizarre stance accusing the “Club of Angry Patriots” of being the ones preparing for a pro-Wester coup. Girkin has been boldly critical of Russian President Vladimir Putin which means he must feel confidence in being protected from someone with power.
In the midst of all this infighting comes Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin who is laying the foundation for a political power play, possibly to even oppose Putin in the 2024 presidential election. Prigozhin has built a strong relationship with Sergey Mironov, the leader of the A Just Russia – For Truth political party. The two are taking control of the party as other leaders are leaving the party. Most likely, he may try to become the governor of St. Petersburg to increase his power in his home base. Prigozhin has been in a war of words with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs claiming they have been useless leading the UN Security Council to benefit Russia in its war against Ukraine. The Russian government, in turn, goes out of its way not to mention the name of Wagner Group or acknowledge their achievements, instead referring to them as an “assault detachment”.
The pro-war milbloggers have become very critical of the new Russian law that prohibits any “negative assessment” of military leadership. One of the pro-war party, Yuri Yevich, gave a lecture on tactical medicine to a gathering of the Russian National Guard. During that lecture he shared examples of how the current Russian campaign had made some errors. This was reported back to Kremlin officials who charged Yevich as violating the discreditation law. The milbloggers are complaining that constructive criticism is required if any improvements are to be made.
Russia has ended its campaign to disrupt the Ukrainian energy sector as their attempts failed. Not only were energy grids quickly restored, but the attacks also had the opposite effect of uniting Ukraine against Russia, rather than create criticism of the Ukrainian government by the suffering of the Ukrainian people. All Ukrainian energy grids are operating and Ukraine is again exporting energy to Europe.
The Russian government has introduced amendments to increase prison terms for committing acts of terrorism and for discrediting military operations. The goal is to promote self-censorship where people avoid such behavior on their own out of fear of long prison terms. The laws are purposely vague so as it can be applied against any such act as the government desires. Part of the bill adds “feminism” as an extremist ideology that is opposed to the war in Ukraine under the discrediting law. Russian officials point to the assassination of milblogger Maxim Fomin by a woman and the fact that Ukrainian women fight with men against Russia because of feminism. The amendments introduce life imprisonment for high treason and increase prison term lengths for other acts of sabotage.
Wagner Group forces are continuing their practice of beheading Ukrainian servicemen and placing their heads on spikes. This is being seen increasingly in the city of Bakhmut as a form of intimidation against Ukrainian soldiers.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
The Kherson Oblast occupation authorities have added the possession of a Russian passport as required to receive medical attention to force Ukrainians to obtain Russian passports. They are also issuing housing certificates only to those who have Russian passports. Without these certificates, they will lose ownership of their homes.
Ukrainian children from occupied regions who were sent to Russia, are being adopted into Russian families in large numbers. The children are being sent to Russia for medical or rehabilitation purposes. Thousands of children have been sent to Russia for rest and medical purposes. Only 31 children have returned to Ukraine.
Belarus
Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Monday to discuss bilateral cooperation. Lukashenko thanked Russia for maintaining a military presence in Belarus and Shoigu thanked Belarus for providing Belarusian training grounds for Russian military training.
Both Russia and Belarus continue combat training in Belarus, even together such as in Brest. But there is no indication of a Russian offensive group forming in Belarus.
Other News
Russia may be preparing for a chemical attack on Ukraine by creating a false flag attack in Sumy Oblast. The R-MoD is claiming that UAF are delivering dead bodies to the morgue with applied toxic chemicals for the purpose of accusing Russia of using chemical weapons. This may be a coverup explanation for the real thing if Russia does begin using chemical weapons against Ukraine.
Twenty of the highest-ranking priests of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – Moscow Patriarchate have been discovered holding Russian passports identifying them as Russian citizens.
Following their talks in China this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron released a joint statement in which they opposed the use of nuclear weapons and expressed support for efforts to restore peace in Ukraine based on international law and the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
There are currently 4.8 million registered Ukrainian IDPs.
Russia and Ukraine swapped another 100 POWs each.
International Support
Poland has pledged another 100 Wolverine multi-purpose military vehicles to Ukraine. Ukraine has suspended all grain exports through Poland in exchange to calm down the Polish farmers who are complaining about lower grain prices.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.