UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF made no confirmed advances along the frontlines except for a few blocks in Bakhmut. UAF sent Chechen soldiers on the run around Bilohorivka and captured many tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, and maybe even a SU-25 Russian fighter jet.
Eastern Ukraine: (Russia’s Main Objective)
The heaviest fighting is occurring in the forests south of Kreminna in the direction of Bilohorivka. Chechen soldiers had been holding out for five days in the forests, but finally retreated before UAF had encircled them. In the fighting, RF lost several T-72 and T-90 tanks, a BTR-80 armored personnel carrier, BMP-1 and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, one BREM-1 armored repair and recovery vehicle, and one SU-25 aircraft. RF have begun laying mines in the north around Kupyansk suggesting they have ended their offensive and are now switching to a defensive posture waiting for the Ukrainian Spring Counteroffensive.
Donetsk Oblast: (Russia’s Second Objective)
RF shelled the city of Slovyansk on Friday damaging five multi-story apartment buildings which resulted in the deaths of nine civilians, including one child who was still alive when pulled from the rubble, but died in transit to the hospital. Another 21 civilians were injured.
Bakhmut
Ukraine is maintaining silence about the situation in Bakhmut, but geolocated footage confirms RF have advanced from the east, crossed the railway tracks, and have entered the first residential neighborhood to the west of the railway tracks. RS also claimed that RF advanced by one block from the north and one block from the south over the last two days. The only news we are hearing from UAS is that most of the fighters are still Russian convicts fighting with Wagner Forces which if true means that the Wagner Forces are being cautious and explains the slow progress in taking Bakhmut.
Avdiivka/Marinka
RF made no confirmed advances in the region, but RS claim that RF have taken what is left of the high-rise buildings in Marinka. But as Marinka is just a city of rubble, this does not help them in the recapture of the city.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
There were no confirmed RF assaults in Western Donetsk over the last two days, although RS claim that RF have begun fighting around Vuhledar again.
Southern Ukraine (Eastern Kherson, Southern Zaporizhia, & Western Donetsk)
Satellite images have confirmed that RF are building trenches along the northern coast of Crimea over the last month in preparation for the Ukrainian Counteroffensive. RF have also intensified the rate of artillery attacks in Southern Ukraine along the Dnipro River and are using guided aerial bombs to terrorize civilians. 447 artillery shells alone rained down upon Kherson on Saturday alone injuring eight civilians. And RF have increased their missile attacks into the rear of UAF in hopes of hitting some of those new weapons supplied by the west. 25 missile attacks were conducted on Sunday alone.
Russia is evacuating residents from Enerhodar where the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant is based, and they are looting homes as they leave. And there are signs that Russia is evacuating their Black Sea fleet from Crimea as well.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Last Tuesday the Russian Duma passed a law that creates a unified registry of fighting age men. The impact of this bill means that the Russian military can now send mobilization papers electronically instead of by the mail which made it easy for Russian men to dodge service. Now the government can control employment and withhold services from those men not responding.
The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) announced last Friday that they are starting the spring conscription cycle within Luhansk. It is not clear how successful they will be as they did not prepare for this and are already starting two weeks late based on the Russian start of the conscription cycle. And it is not clear where these conscripts will serve as Russia announced that conscripts will not fight in Ukraine. And this announcement also directly contradicts the Russian Duma Defense Committee Chair Andrei Kartapolov who had announced weeks ago that no conscription would take place in Ukrainian occupied territories.
Russian Department of Organization and Mobilization head Colonel Andrey Biryukhov announced that the Russian spring conscription is going by plan and meeting its goals. Already 52,000 citizens have received conscription notification and 50,000 of them have reported to military recruitment centers. Of the 50,000 who reported, only 21,000 will serve as the majority have legal deferrals. Russia continues to claim that these conscripts will not see fighting in Ukraine.
Ivan Popov, a Chechen military warehouse chief, was sentenced to 1.5 years for embezzling over $150,000 worth of ammunition and uniforms.
Russian soldiers of the 27th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade released a video complaint on Sunday accusing their Russian commanders of lying to them. The soldiers claim they were told they were being deployed to the Russian city of Rostov-On-Don, but instead were deployed to the Ukrainian frontlines in Luhansk Oblast. They were not trained or equipped for such a deployment.
The R-MoD postponed their next round of officer training from September to December suggesting they are finding it difficult to maintain their training capacities.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
The Russian State Security Service held a meeting with the National Anti-Terrorism Committee last Tuesday to discuss how to use Ukrainian youth to counter partisan activity in the occupied areas. The goal may also be to leave behind an army of partisans in the event that Ukraine retakes territory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on Friday officially switching the time zone in the occupied territories from Ukraine time to Russian time.
Wagner Group forces removed two children from Bakhmut to an unspecified location.
Belarus
Belarusian military troops conducted exercises on Saturday in building pontoon bridges to cross over a river. This will be needed if Belarus were to join in the Russian campaign against Ukraine as they would need to cross a river that divides Belarus and Ukraine.
Other News
There is a false rumor that is being reported in the Western press. It is being reported that Wagner Force financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has called for the end of the war against Ukraine. This is the opposite of what he said, and the error was made by poor journalism that did not understand Prigozhin’s writing style which is full of deadpan sarcasm, selective ambiguity, aphorisms, vulgarity, and ironic slang. Prigozhin had released an essay last Friday in which he deployed a strawman argument to end the war in Ukraine. The point of the essay was not to support the strawman, but to attack the anti-war stance. The title of the essay, “Only an Honest Fight: No Negotiations”, should have made this clear. Prigozhin was arguing that it would be better to continue the war and lose in the short term, rather than sue for peace, because such a loss will bring a nationalist rebirth to Russia and set the conditions for a future victory.
Prigozhin’s star has begun to rise again in Russia. Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky has been restored as the commander of the Russian Airborne troops (VDV). Teplinsky, who is a friend of Prigozhin, had been placed on leave. Prigozhin has been pushing for his reinstatement which has now occurred. The VDV is now being deployed to defend the flanks of Wagner Group forces around Bakhmut. But as Teplinsky led during a time where the VDV lost half of their troops, his appointment is not likely to be good for Russia.
Russian milbloggers are also coming to Prigozhin’s defense by attacking his biggest enemy, St. Petersburg Mayor Alexander Beglov. Beglov gave a speech last Thursday with all the flags of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on the stage behind him. Even though Ukraine formally left the CIS in 2018, Russia does not recognize that and continues to fly the Ukrainian flag at CIS events. Beglov’s mistake was standing directly in front of the Ukrainian flag when he gave his speech. Although protocol requires the Ukrainian flag to fly along with the other CIS flags, it was not in good taste that it was in a prominent position during the speech.
Yevgeny Prigozhin released 130 Ukrainian POWs for an unspecified number of Russian POWs. But this was done without approval of the R-MoD suggesting Prigozhin has regained his stature within Russia. Five of the Russian POWs were Chechen soldiers, but Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov refused to meet with them upon their return as he considers surrender a dishonor. He communicated to them that if they wanted their honor restored, they should immediately return to the frontlines.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is positioning his United Russia party to lead the pro-war faction. They are actively recruiting Russian military personnel and volunteers who have fought against Ukraine to run for office through the party. Although this is typical for a country at war, but United Russia party is doing it at a greater extent than is usual for a country at war.
International Support
Canada delivered the eight Leopard 2 tanks they had promised to Ukraine to neighboring Poland.
US and European allies have pledged another $5 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine to be delivered by the International Monetary Fund in September. This is in addition to the $18 billion already pledged or delivered.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.