UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
RF have moved back on the defensive as Putin continues to unheed the advice of his generals and begin taking a more defensive mode in preparation for the coming Ukrainian Spring counteroffensive. That counteroffensive may have begun as UAF have crossed the Dnipro River near Kherson and made some progress in pushing back RF near Vuhledar.
Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk & Kharkiv Oblasts):
It has been confirmed that RF had captured Karmazynivka (13 km SW of Svatove) on an unspecified date. Over the last four days, though, RF have concentrated their efforts in clearing the Serebrianska forest area (11 km S of Kreminna) of UAF so that they can resume their drive towards Lyman. RF also made an incremental advance 10 km NW of Kreminna.
Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast):
Bakhmut
RF have made incremental gains in the city of Bakhmut and now control 85% of the city. UAF conducted a successful counterattack NW of Bakhmut to alleviate pressure against Khromove and RF attempts to encircle Bakhmut and trap the remaining UAF in the city.
Avdiivka/Marinka
RF made some marginal advances north and south of Avdiivka late last week, but were held over the weekend.
RF continue to fight to recapture Marinka and how control 85% of the city. But RF have not been able to encircle UAF.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
RF were unable to make any gains in Western Donetsk or Vuhledar over the last four days, but UAF managed to advance towards Pavlivka just south of Vuhledar on Friday.
Southern Ukraine (Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Crimea Oblasts)
UAF are conducting a very successful counter-battery operation that is destroying all Russian artillery systems, tanks, armored vehicles, and air defense systems along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in preparation for the Spring counter-offensive.
UAF are moving across the Dnipro River from Velyki Potemkin Island, part of Kherson city. Ukraine has claimed that they have started the Spring counteroffensive by targeting Russian ammunition depots and RF areas of concentration along the east bank of the Dnipro River.
The Kerch Strait Bridge has almost been repaired and the rail line to Crimea is expected to be reopened this month.
Satellite images show that RF are constructing firing positions on the roofs of several reactors of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant in preparation for an attempt by UAF to retake the plant.
RF continue their daily shelling of communities in the Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Putin is putting pressure on the Russian Duma to remove bills that are adding excessive penalties hoping to maintain his image as a diplomatic and tolerant tsar. The Duma removed a bill that would raise the tax rate from 13 to 30 percent on those who have left the country. He also has stated he does not support the return of the death penalty. But the Duma was able to pass three bills that will strip Russian citizenship to those who discredit the Russian army, allow life sentences for high treason, and five-year prison terms for simply promoting the decisions by international organizations to which Russia is not a member. Letters are also being sent to those who ignore their draft notices threatening undisclosed “restrictive measures.”
Russian criminals in prison have stopped volunteering for military service in exchange for pardons, so the Russian government has upped the ante and offered them military pay equivalent to other volunteers in addition. They are also providing free AIDs testing and when a prisoner is diagnosed, they are also promised treatment if they volunteer and are told dying on the battlefield is better than dying slowly in prison.
Russian Orthodox Protodeacon Andrei Kuraev was defrocked for publicly stating he did not support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Ukrainian partisans blew up a Russian military checkpoint killing several Russian National Guard soldiers on Monday. On Wednesday, partisans assassinated a Russian party leader in Nova Kakhovka. That evening, two Russian soldiers were killed by partisans in Eastern Kherson.
RF are using elementary schools for military purposes using the Ukrainian children as human shields.
Russia continues to deport Ukrainians in the occupied zones to Russia and resettling the communities with Russians from poor and remote regions. The goal is to make the reintegration of the regions back into Ukraine very difficult.
Russia is rebuilding energy and medical infrastructure in the occupied territories.
Belarus
17,000 Russian soldiers are deployed along the Belarusian/Ukrainian border. Another 2800 are being trained at Belarusian military sites.
Other News
An anonymous European official told the New York Times that the chances of Putin backing down if Ukraine conducts a successful counteroffensive as “less than zero”. US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Celeste Wallander confirmed that assessment as did US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby who added that the U.S. is already planning on that and is prepared to continue supplying military aid to Ukraine.
RF conducted four Kalibr missile strikes on Mykolaiv city on Thursday as a test of new tactics designed to complicate Ukrainian air defenses. Then in the middle of the night RF launched 23 missiles and several drones striking civilian buildings in Uman, Dnipro, and Ukrainka (Kyiv Oblast). UAF shot down 21 of the missiles and 2 drones. The death toll has risen to 25 people including 3 children on the attack in Uman alone.
International Support
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated on Thursday that NATO has trained and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian brigades and have delivered 98% of the promised combat vehicles to Ukraine which includes 1550 armored vehicles and 230 tanks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a telephone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping where China stated their respect for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity and offered to help Ukraine and Russia reach a peace deal.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.