UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The Ukrainian Spring Counteroffensive has unofficially commenced with UAF already moving in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Southern Ukraine.
Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk & Kharkiv Oblasts):
RF are conducting fewer assaults in this theater of the war but continue to heavily use artillery against UAF positions. The Chechen forces have returned to the area with the heaviest fighting being conducted near Bilohorivka. RF are mainly building defensive positions, with four lines of defense in Svatove alone. UAF continue to strike behind the lines firing rockets on Sunday against RF in Bryanka.
Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast):
Bakhmut
RF continued advancing 1-2 blocks each day over the weekend. But by Monday, UAF had regained the initiative in Bakhmut and began pushing back and regaining territory. RF then regained the initiative on Wednesday as they made a push to take the Bakhmut Medical Center and move towards Khromove from the northeast. RF claim to control 92% of the city.
Avdiivka/Marinka
RF continued to unsuccessfully attack UAF around Avdiivka over the weekend. But RF in Marinka refused to fight because of their huge manpower losses, lack of ammunition, lack of protective gear, and being ordered to fight without heavy equipment or artillery support.
UAF started the counteroffensive on Monday by knocking out Russian artillery positions and advancing in Marinka and toward Vodiane and Troitske advancing around one mile.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
Neither side made any ground attacks around Vuhledar over the last four days.
Southern Ukraine (Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Crimea Oblasts)
UAF conducted a devastating drone strike deep into Russian-controlled territory destroying 10 oil tanks in Sevastopol that held 40,000 tons of fuel for the Black Sea Fleet. RS reported at least two and up to ten drones descended on the Russian Black Sea Fleet base on Saturday.
RF retaliated by launching a missile strike against the UAF command post in Kherson and UAF positions near Hulyaipole. Ukraine did not report on the attacks, and it is unknown what the damage was in the attacks.
UAF continued to soften up the rear areas in Southern Ukraine. UAF fired HIMARS rockets against the Russian command post and RF positions near Tavriia on Saturday. On Monday, UAF fired rockets on a railway depot in Tokmak.
RF conducted a massive missile strike against civilian infrastructure in Kherson in the early hours on Wednesday killing at least 18 people and injuring 46.
75% of the personnel that operate the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant now have contracts with Russian state nuclear energy operator Rosatom, and the other 25% still are under contract with the Ukrainian state nuclear energy operator Energoatom. Personnel are busy restoring power lines to the plant.
UAF have also begun the counteroffensive by crossing the Dnipro River and conducting assaults on RF positions and then returning to the west bank. These assaults are keeping RF on the move and unable to dig into defensive positions. RF remain on Velykyi Potemkin island in the Dnipro River. RS claim that UAF are on the move along the Zaporizhia line as well, but Ukraine is silent about this.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin gave an interview last Saturday where he threatened to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut if he did not begin receiving at least 4000 artillery shells a day. At their height, Wagner Group forces were firing 80,000 shells a day, but their allotment has fallen to only 800 shells a day. Prigozhin also reiterated his opinion that RF should end their offensive campaign and prepare a defense for the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The R-MoD has issued regulations which will make it harder to avoid conscription starting in August. Summons will now come electronically and once received, conscripts will be forbidden from leaving Russia and suffer heavy penalties if they do not report to enlistment offices within twenty days.
Cadets at military command academies have graduated months ahead of schedule. Rumors are circulating that they were graduated early so that they can be deployed to the front lines in Ukraine.
Russia is preparing to maintain control of media reporting ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. A new manual has been discovered that informs Russian media on the rules of reporting. The manual instructs the media not to lower the expectations of the Ukrainian counteroffensive or report that Ukraine is not prepared. Instead, the media is to focus on giving credit to any Ukrainian successes on support from Western countries.
Russia continues to leave the dead bodies of their soldiers on the field afraid of a huge backlash if the Russian people knew the truth on the number of casualties. But family members are complaining that they are not hearing from their loved ones for a long time. The truth cannot be hidden forever.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
In preparation for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russian occupation officials are increasing the number of Ukrainians being held in filtration camps. Russian police are increasing their patrols and checking for phones still using Ukrainian SIM cards.
Russian authorities have come into conflict with Russian law concerning holding local elections in occupied territories starting in September. Russian law prohibits elections being held in regions under martial law.
An unnamed Russian occupation official was severely injured at his home in occupied Melitopol on Tuesday by partisan attacks.
Russia is moving paid thugs into the occupied regions to create conflicts with Ukrainian civilians living there in order to destabilize the lives of Ukrainians.
Other News
The Russian government posted propaganda on social media that was an attack on the Spanish government. The post featured Spanish Defense Minister Margaret Robles saying that Spanish troops would never fight in Ukraine and then showed video footage purporting to show Spanish soldiers fighting in Ukraine. The Spanish government summoned the Russian ambassador on Friday to explain the move. The post has since been removed.
Eleven Russian bombers took to the skies in the early hours on Monday and fired eighteen missiles at Ukraine. UAF shot down fifteen of the missiles. One confirmed hit was on a chemical plant in Pavlohrad (50 miles east of Dnipro). There were no casualties reported. It was noted that the low number of missiles fired from so many bombers is evidence that Russia is running low on such munitions.
Ukrainian officials announced on Monday that they are near ready to launch a counteroffensive. The goal remains to liberate all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
Former U.S. Marine Cooper Andrews was killed defending Bakhmut on Monday. He was ambushed while assisting civilians evacuating the city.
RF launched 26 drones against Ukraine in the early hours on Wednesday. UAF were able to shoot down 21 of them. Regions hit included Kyiv, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv.
Russia conducted a false flag attack on Wednesday as the Russian people watched a drone exploding in the skies over the Kremlin in Moscow. Russia immediately accused Ukraine of the terrorist attack, but Ukraine was just as quick to deny any involvement. If Ukraine had conducted the attack, it would prove the weakness of the Russian military to defend their nation. The drone would either had to been brought across the border and driven to Moscow or flown the entire 500 miles from the Ukraine border without being noticed or shot down. Either scenario is extremely unlikely. If it was an assassination attempt on Putin, as claimed, then it would have had to be conducted by an enemy within Russia.
The most likely explanation is that RF staged the attack themselves. There are several reasons why Russia might do this:
- They are planning a massive attack on Ukraine and need a reason to justify the attack.
- They are planning on ordering another mass mobilization movement and need to portray Russian territory as under attack to justify such an action.
- They are looking for a reason to cancel the May 9 Victory Day Celebration which will prove to be embarrassing as they are not experiencing victory now.
I am hoping it is the third reason.
International Support
The UN passed a resolution acknowledging Russia as the aggressor in the war in Ukraine. Most notable were key Russian partners who signed the resolution including China, India, and Brazil.
Poland streamlined the process of Polish firms providing drones to Ukraine.
South Africa warned Russian President Vladimir Putin that they would have no choice but to arrest him if he attends the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) alliance meeting in August to be held in Durban, South Africa, because he has an international warrant for his arrest on war crimes. They are suggesting that he attend via online video link.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Finland on Wednesday to meet with the leaders of the three Nordic Countries (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, Greenland, and Finland). The gathering is dedicated to the defense of Ukraine.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.