UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
The Ukrainian Spring Counteroffensive has not begun, but UAF are conducting several tactical counterattacks to improve their positions. They have pushed RF back from Bakhmut and Avdiivka ending any Russian attempt to encircle those cities.
Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk & Kharkiv Oblasts):
RF continued unsuccessful assaults along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line but most of the assaults were concentrated around Kupyansk and Svatove. RF did make some marginal advances towards Spirne in the south.
UAF made a surprise missile attack against the Luhansk Machine Building Plant on Thursday which surprised Russia as it is out of range of any missile they thought Ukraine had in its possession. The UK has promised to deliver long-range Storm Shadow missiles, and it may have been Ukraine’s first use of these missiles. This is a game change as Ukraine can now attack any Russian military installation within occupied Ukrainian territory. This was followed up by a missile attack on Friday against industrial facilities in Yuvileyne also near Luhansk city.
Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast):
Bakhmut
RF continued to advance in Bakhmut city over the last three days gaining another 1200 square feet of territory reducing Ukraine’s hold on the city to 1.25 square miles on the western edge.
UAF continue to counterattack northwest and southwest of Bakhmut pushing RF farther back from Khromove and Ivanivske. In the northwest UAF have pushed RF back 2.5 miles to the Berkhivske Reservoir. UAF have also pushed RF back from their positions between Hryhorivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka. In the southwest, RF are pushing towards Klishchiivka and have reached the outskirts of Kurdyumivka pushing RF back across the Siversky Donets-Donbas canal in the area. These tactical gains threaten an encirclement of Wagner Group forces when the counteroffensive begins. Geolocated videos posted on social media show RF fleeing from their positions as UAF advance.
Avdiivka/Marinka
RF continue unsuccessful assaults against Avdiivka and Marinka, but the only advances were to the southeast of Avdiivka with RF now only 1.25 miles from Avdiivka. But UAF are pushing RF back in the north of the city having reached the rail line just north of Krasnohorivka and west of Novobakhmutivka. This tactical move has relieved Avdiivka from the possibility of being encircled.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
UAF have also begun some tactical counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast crossing the Shaitanka River near Novodonetske. RF shelled Vuhledar but made no ground assaults over the last three days.
Southern Ukraine (Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Crimea Oblasts)
RF have increased their artillery fire against UAF across the Dnipro River hoping to damage UAF preparing for the counteroffensive. UAF have taken the islands in the southern portion of the Dnipro River but are still fighting for total control of Velykyi Potemkin Island which is part of Kherson city.
RF plan to evacuate the 3000 staff they have placed at the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant in anticipation that it will be retaken in the early days of the counteroffensive.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
In order to avoid a general mobilization of forces, the R-MoD is focusing on other options. One of these options is to recruit prisoners in exchange for pardons. 10,000 prisoners were recruited this way in April. They are also encouraging regional governments to recruit their own private armies. This is resulting in a disproportionate number of ethnic minorities and labor immigrants being conscripted into the Russian army.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Russia has begun returning children that they had exported out of occupied regions for rest and rehabilitation. 96 children were returned on Thursday. But children are still being deported from the occupied regions to Russia.
Ukrainian partisans unsuccessfully attempted to assassinate the Regional Court Chairman of occupied Zaporizhia but did injure two security guards in the attempt. Other partisans wounded the Deputy Minister of Construction in occupied Zaporizhia.
Russian occupation authorities in Luhansk Oblast have suspended mobile internet as Ukraine now can launch missiles deep into Russian occupied regions. Partisans can use mobile internet to assist UAF in hitting targets.
Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast are forcibly deporting Ukrainian citizens from the region to prevent them from assisting UAF in the coming counteroffensive.
Belarus
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has not been seen in public since his visit to Moscow on May 9. He did not even deliver his traditional Victory Day address on that day. He was taken by ambulance to the hospital on Saturday and his condition remains unclear.
Other News
The Ukrainian Spring Counteroffensive has not yet begun. President Zelensky stated that Ukraine needs more time because it is still waiting on necessary weaponry promised by western nations. The Abrams tanks promised by the U.S. will not be delivered until the Fall. For now, Ukraine is focusing on counterattacks to improve their tactical position.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative which allows Ukraine to export grain will expire this coming Thursday. Russia threatened not to extend it unless the sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports are also lifted and the agriculture bank Rosselkhozbank is reconnected to the international SWIFT banking system.
Russian occupation authorities seized the cathedral of the Ukraine Orthodox Church last Thursday in Simferopol and began looting the cathedral.
U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of loading a Russian ship with ammunition and weapons last December. South Africa denies the accusation and has summoned Brigety to explain his accusation.
RF conducted a drone attack on Ukraine in the early hours of Saturday. Ukraine shot down 18 of the 22 drones. The four drones that got through air defense damaged an infrastructure facility in Khmelnitsky Oblast and injured eleven civilians in Mykolaiv.
UAF shot down two Russian Mi-8 helicopters, a SU-34 bomber, and an SU-35 fighter jet over Russian airspace in Bryansk.
International Support
President Zelensky visited Rome for the first time since the Russian invasion began. Upon his visit, Italy pledged €2.7 billion in military aid which will include tanks, armored vehicles, and air defense systems.
Germany also announced a €2.7 billion military aid package to include 30 more Leopard tanks, armored vehicles, air defense systems, and military drones.
Belgium announced €92 million in military aid to Ukraine from seized Russian assets. Half of the aid will be used to purchase armored vehicles and ammunition for Ukraine, and the other half will be given in cash.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.