UAF – Ukrainian Forces
UAS – Ukrainian Sources
UGS – Ukrainian General Staff
RF – Russian Forces
RS – Russian Sources
R-MoD – Russian Ministry of Defense
Summary of the Events
Russia claims to have completely captured Bakhmut. Wagner Forces announced they will withdraw all troops from Bakhmut on May 25, and from all front-line positions by June 1, for two months of rest. An all-Russian volunteer force invaded Russia from Ukraine and captured two settlements.
Eastern Ukraine (Luhansk & Kharkiv Oblasts):
Video footage has confirmed advances by RF over the last few weeks in this sector. RF did not capture Masyutivka last week as they had reported. But they have entered the three-house settlement and the village is being contested. Since UAF reported attacking RF west of Dibrova, we can also confirm that settlement was captured. Geolocated video footage shows UAF destroying a Russian tank west of Chervonopopivka suggesting that settlement has been captured by RF. And geolocated footage has also confirmed that RF have advanced to the flirtation station in the southeastern suburbs of Bilohorivka.
A RS reported that UAF recaptured positions around Bilohorivka.
UAF fired HIMARs at RF positions in the rear in Kalynove-Borshuvate in the early morning on Sunday.
Eastern Ukraine (Donetsk Oblast):
Bakhmut
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Wagner Force financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin both reported that RF have captured all Bakhmut. It must be noted that this has yet to be confirmed and UAF may still be holding on to a few blocks in the southwest corner of the city. It is estimated by US intelligence that Russia paid a huge price to take the tactically insignificant city of Bakhmut suffering 100,000 casualties, half of the number of Russian casualties during the whole war.
The taking of Bakhmut, if it actually has occurred, is simply symbolic as it gives RF not tactical advantage to move deeper into Donetsk Oblast, not does it give them any strong positions to defend against UAF counterattacks.
UAF are threatening to encircle the RF in Bakhmut as they conduct successful counterattacks to the north and southwest of Bakhmut pushing RF farther away from Ivanivske and moving north of Sakko I Vantsetti. But Russia has moved all available reserves to these areas which has slowed, but not stopped, the UAF advances.
Yevgeniy Prigozhin announced that Wagner Forces will retreat from Bakhmut on May 25 giving the R-MoD time to take their defensive positions. Wagner Forces are exhausted from their fighting in taking Soledar and Bakhmut. Prigozhin also announced that Wagner Forces will retreat from all frontline positions by June 1 and move back into Russia for two months of rest and replenishment. R-MoD do not have trained forces to replace the Wagner Force troops.
Wagner Forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from Bakhmut. They will not be able to establish effective defensive positions for R-MoD troops to occupy. So, if this occurs, UAF will be able to retake Bakhmut over time with targeted counterattacks. It is most likely a trap to trick Ukraine into conducting their counteroffensive against Bakhmut thinking it is not heavily defended.
Avdiivka/Marinka
After a week-long slowdown, RF have again picked up their tempo of attacks near Avdiivka. But the only confirmed advance to show for this uptick were marginal gains southwest of Pervomaiske.
Vuhledar (Western Donetsk)
According to a RS, UAF conducted a counterattack near Solodke, but the outcome of the assault is not known. RF have begun attacking in this area as well but have nothing confirmed to show for it.
Southern Ukraine (Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Crimea Oblasts)
A RS claimed that UAF counterattacked near Dorozhnyanka along the Zaporizhia Defense Line and made some marginal advances.
RF are flooding fields around Vasylivka on the Zaporizhian defense line and in Melitopol to slow down any motorized counteroffensive in Southern Ukraine.
RF continue to fire around the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant resulting in the loss of power at the plant.
UAF launched a drone attack on RF in Crimea last Friday. It is not known what the impact was or whether they were intercepted by Russian air defense. UAF also attacked the Mariupol airport in the early hours on Saturday with Storm Shadow missiles recently provided by the UK. Then on Sunday, UAF fired Storm Shadow missiles at a Russian command center at an airfield I Berdyansk. Video footage of the mess hall on fire was released. RS claim that the mess hall was vacant at the time and there were no casualties.
Russia
Troops in the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), two military units made up entirely of Russian citizens who support Ukraine, captured the Russian border crossing at Kozinka killing several of the border guards. The attackers had two tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and nine other armored vehicles. They then moved into Russia and captured the two towns of Glotovo and Gora Podol. Geolocated video footage verifies that they did take Kozinka and entered Russia with at least one tank. At least one dead Russian body was seen in the video. Ukrainian officials noted that they were aware of the attack but added that Ukraine had no direct involvement. RS claimed that all three settlements were recaptured later in the day.
Russian Military Command, Mobilization, and Morale
Russian officials reported that the Russian military has recruited 117,400 contract personnel so far this year. Although there is no way to confirm this number, it is within the possible realm.
Intermediaries in Kazakhstan are supplying Russia with microchips and drones which are on the international sanctions list. Kazakh company Da Group 22 is purchasing microchips from German company Elix-st and selling to Russian company Stack. Kazakh enterprise Aspan Arba is building the drones and selling to Russian drone seller Celestial Mechanics.
Wagner Group forces purchased 20,000 helmets from a Chinese company in violation of international sanctions.
Rosstat, the official Russian statistic service, reported that 5% of Russian men of fighting age have left the country to avoid being conscripted.
The Russian military has reduced the length of training for convict volunteers from four weeks to ten day in order to fill in the gaps in their defenses due to heavy losses.
Activity in Russian Occupied Areas
Ukrainian children who had been receiving treatment at a psychological and social rehabilitation center in occupied Melitopol have been forcibly removed to Yevpatoria, Crimea. Many Ukrainian children from the occupied regions are being moved to Crimea to be used as human shields. These camps are also advertising their facilities to children in Kazakhstan, Israel, Belgium, Morocco, Tajikistan, Egypt, Armenia and other countries.
Russian occupation officials have instituted rules that Ukrainian citizens who have not received Russian passports will no longer be able to use hospital facilities. And if police pull them over for traffic violations or they pass through a checkpoint, and they do not carry a Russian passport, they will have their cars confiscated. Children must also carry passports in order to receive educational certificates and take exams.
Other News
Russia launched a massive drone attack on Ukraine in the early morning hours on Friday. All drones targeting Kyiv were shot down. At least two drones did hit their targets. A private business was targeted in Kryvyi Rih injuring one woman. And a critical infrastructure target was hit in Lviv, but there were no injuries. Another drone attack was launched on Saturday morning against Kyiv, but all drones were intercepted before they could hit their targets. But falling debris did create some fires throughout the city causing no injuries. In the early morning hours on Monday, Russia launched 20 drones and 16 missiles against the city of Dnipro. All the drones were intercepted, but only four of the missiles were shot down. Surprisingly, less than ten people were injured and there were no deaths. Early reports show several fire stations and equipment destroyed in the city.
International Support
The World Leaders of the G7 nations meeting in Hiroshima, Japan, announced that they will all increase sanctions against Russia to “starve Russia of G7 technology, industrial equipment and services that support its war machine.” Details of the new sanctions have not yet been released but they will also include measures to prevent circumvention of the sanctions through other countries. President Zelensky was a guest and made a speech thanking the west for its support but stating that much more is needed to defend Ukraine. Zelensky also held a private meeting with India Prime Minister Narendra Modi who promised that India will do all that it can to assist Ukraine. But as allies of Russia, there is not much they can do.
The UK announced the details of their new sanctions which will include adding 86 Russian individuals and entities in the grain and energy field to the sanction list and initiating a ban on the import of Russian diamonds and other minerals which will cost Russia $4-$5 billion a year.
The US announced that they will provide Ukraine with warplanes, including F-16s, in the near future. But first Ukrainian pilots will need to be trained. Initial testing of Ukrainian pilots in simulators showed that they will only need four months of training to become efficient in flying F-16s. President Biden also announced another $375 million in military aid including armored bridge systems to allow Ukrainian troops to cross the Dnipro River.
Saudi Arabia hosted the Arab League meeting and invited President Zelensky to attend and address the league. Although no agreements were signed, it did provide a strategic opportunity for Zelensky to address all the Arab leaders.
Major Source Materials
- Institute for the Study of War daily report on the Russian invasion
- Kyiv Post
- Militaryland milblogger site.