Days 473 (June 11, 2023)

The second week of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun with more settlements along the Zaporizhian Defense Line (ZDL) liberated by Ukrainian forces. The first week started off hard as Ukraine advanced forward, only to be shoved back to their starting positions losing many tanks and armored vehicles in the process. But by the end of the week, Russian defense began to crack and Ukrainian forces began their slow move south. The two points of attack are from Velyka Novosilka (eastern half of ZDL) and Orikhiv (western half of ZDL). From Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian forces moved directly south and liberated Neskuchne and Storozheve on Saturday. From Vuhledar, Ukrainian forces also moved to liberate Blahodatne on Saturday. On Sunday, Ukrainian troops moved farther south from Storozheve and liberated Makarivka, as well as creating another front by liberating Novodarivka (14 miles / 23 km southwest of Velyka Novosilka). From Orikhiv, Ukrainian forces have moved out in two directions liberating Lobkove and Pyatykhaty (19 miles/30 km southeast) and are moving south having liberated Novodanylivka on Saturday and advancing towards Robotyne (11 miles/18 km south). It is premature to declare that Ukrainian forces have broken through the first line of the Russian defense, but progress is being made. On the two other fronts (Bakhmut and Bilohorivka) there was no confirmed progress on Sunday. But possibly a fifth point of attack has emerged as Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Nevelske as they push Russian forces farther away from Avdiivka. (Blue areas on map are regions liberated so far in the counteroffensive).

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Now that Russia has flooded the Dnipro River, they are moving their troops that were defending the east bank up to the ZDL. This will slow down Ukraine’s advances in the next week, but once the floodwaters have receded, Russia will have very little defense left along the left bank and Ukrainian forces will be able to launch a counteroffensive across the river to retake eastern Kherson region.

Ukrainian forces shelled Russian positions in the rear with explosions being reported in Tokmak and Melitopol. In addition, Ukrainian partisans in occupied territory blew up three railway bridges to slow down Russian reinforcement deliveries. Russia also claimed that its Priazovye reconnaissance ship in the Black Sea had come under attack from a swarm of boat drones.

The floodwaters caused by the Russian destruction of the Kakhovka Dam have already dropped three feet (1 m) from its height to 14.5 feet (4.45 m). This has resulted in the area of the flooded territories decreasing by half. 32 settlements on the Ukrainian side and 14 on the Russian side are still flooded with 3784 residential buildings under flood water. A total of 2699 civilians have been rescued, including 178 children and 67 people with reduced mobility. There are eight confirmed deaths, but that number is expected to rise as 29 people are still missing. Crimea and Kherson region are already experiencing a shortage of clean drinking water, with 19 settlements already with no source of water.

Three people were killed and another ten injured when Russian forces shelled a rescue boat evacuating stranded civilians on the Russian-held side of the river. One 74-year-old man shielded a woman during the attack and was shot in the back. He died of his wounds.

Strike That Hit Ukraine Floods Rescue Boat Kills Three: governor
Russia and Ukraine made a POW exchange on Sunday. Ukraine returned two Russian officers and another 93 soldiers in exchange for 94 Ukrainian troops of unspecified rank.

A delegation from African countries who have seen their food supply drastically lowered due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are planning a mission to Russia and Ukraine to attempt to mediate a peace agreement. The delegation consists of the presidents of the Republic of Congo, Egypt, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia. South Africa also hopes to improve their international standing as it has joined the BRICS alliance which includes Russia and China. The BRICS summit scheduled to be held in Johannesburg in August may have to be moved to China as South Africa would be obligated to arrest Russian President Putin if he were to attend the summit in South Africa as he has been indicted by the International Criminal Court of which South Africa is a member.

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