Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin tried to get in touch with President Vladimir Putin as Wagner Group forces were heading towards Moscow on Saturday. Putin refused to talk to Prigozhin. Prigozhin realized he did not have the support of the Russian people. And so Prigozhin turned to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to negotiate a deal.
Although the full deal is still unknown, we can piece together some of what transpired. Prigozhin ordered his troops to return to their barracks while he went into exile to Belarus. Prigozhin received a full pardon as well as his troops that participated in the attack.
Evidence exists that Prigozhin did not give up control of his private army though as part of the deal. Belarus has begun construction on a 15-square mile (24-square km) military base to house the Wagner Group in Belarus suggesting that Prigozhin will maintain control over at least some of the Wagner Group. It is estimated that only 1000 of his fighters have joined him in Belarus though. Putin gave a speech on Monday seeking to persuade as many of the Wagner Group forces as possible to join the Russian military.
Putin had pardoned Prigozhin for his assault towards Moscow, but he did not promise to not punish Prigozhin in other ways. Putin has begun to go after Prigozhin financially. The Russian government had provided nearly a billion dollars to provide food for the Russian army. An investigation has begun to determine if any of that was stolen in the process. But Prigozhin is probably safe from assassination for now as his death would make him a martyr and Putin needs the Wagner Group forces in his fight against Ukraine.
Prigozhin left Belarus on Tuesday and headed to St. Petersburg for further negotiations. It is not sure whether Putin agreed to shake up the Russian Ministry of Defense (R-MoD) as part of Prigozhin’s deal. This would be unlikely, as Putin cannot give into blackmail or other private armies may attempt to get conciliation the same way. Prigozhin had demanded during his assault that General Valery Gerasimov be removed as the Chief of the General Staff. Putin would never do this as Gerasimov has been very loyal to him, but it seems that Putin has met Prigozhin halfway by appointing Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky as the overall theater commander over the war in Ukraine.
Although Prigozhin is the big loser in this maneuver, Putin has suffered damage as well. First, he has shown the world his weakness and the fractured state of his military. And he had to humiliate himself and allow Lukashenko to come out as the hero who saved the day. Lukashenko was about to lose control of Belarus as it merged into Russia, but he got enough leverage to keep Belarus autonomous for now.
Another loser was Army General Sergei Surovikin who was supportive of Wagner Group forces and had advance knowledge of the rebellion but did not report it to the R-MoD. He was arrested and most likely will be made the scapegoat for the rebellion. Also being punished are the Russian forces who put down their weapons and refused to open fire on Wagner Group forces as they headed towards Moscow. They will all likely be court martialed and receive prison sentences. And it is rumored that Russian military police have detained the Wagner Group commanders in Syria.
Ukraine has relaunched its counteroffensive after taking a week off to assess the first two weeks of the offensive. Ukraine has made limited territorial gain over the last four days of the counteroffensive, but Ukraine Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov noted that the main assault of the counteroffensive has not yet begun. Ukraine liberated Rivnopil on Monday and have begun moving towards Staromaiorske. Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces across the Siversky-Donetsk Canal and advanced another kilometer near Bakhmut and even have retaken a small piece of Bakhmut in the southwest corner of the city. And for the first time in this war, Ukrainian forces have retaken territory lost in the 2014 Russian invasion near the city of Krasnohorivka. With the floodwaters subsiding, Ukrainian forces have crossed the Dnipro River by taking control of the Antonivsky Bridge and liberating Dachi on the eastern side of the river.
Russian forces attempted to cross the border into the Sumy region on Sunday but were repelled by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine attacked occupied Luhansk city with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on Sunday. On Monday, Russia launched three missiles and eight drones against Ukraine. All but one missile and one drone were shot down. Russian fired missiles against a popular pizza restaurant in Kramatorsk on Tuesday killing twelve, three of whom were children, and injuring 50 patrons.
A storage facility in Odesa region was confirmed hit. Ukrainian partisans blew up a rail link in Crimea on Tuesday that will damage the ability for Russia to resupply their troops.
A video was released and went viral of two 16-year-old Ukrainian boys being executed in Berdyansk because of their pro-Ukrainian stance. Their last posted video was of them saying, “That’s it. It is death, guys. Farewell! Glory to Ukraine.”
The US announced another $500 million in military aid to Ukraine which will include more ammunition for the Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS rockets, anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank systems, and missiles. The package also includes 30 armored vehicles and 25 armored personnel carriers.
For the first time, China has hinted that they would support Ukraine receiving back all territory taken by Russia since 2014, including Crimea.
Polish President Andrzej Duda made a surprise visit to Kyiv to discuss the security concerns around the Zaporizhian Nuclear Power Plant and the upcoming NATO summit to be held in Vilnius, Lithuania.