Days 510-514 (July 18-22, 2023)

Ukrainian forces have not made much territorial gains over the last five days but have inflicted much damage to Russian troops with artillery and missile strikes. President Zelensky shared that the reason for the slow advance was the delay in receiving weapons from the west and the resulting postponement of the start of the counteroffensive. This allowed Russia time to lay mines all along the border which Ukraine is slowly and laboriously removing as they advance. Over 200 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed clearing the land mines with another 450 injured. But soon Ukraine will have cleared much of that mined border and will be able to push the Russian forces back more quickly. But in the meantime, Ukraine has been bombarding them in the rear so that when the big push comes, Russia will not have supplies or reinforcements.

But some limited and strategic gains on the ground were made. Towards Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces continue their push to encircle the city moving to the north and the south. To the north of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces have reached the I-40 highway and are moving south towards Bakhmut. To the south, Ukrainian forces have reached the outskirts of Klishchiivka placing the city under contest. Ukrainian forces also continue to advance closer to Andriivka farther to the south. On the drive towards Berdyansk, Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces from the north of Staromaiorske and continue to push closer to Priyutne. On the drive towards Melitopol, Ukrainian forces continue to push closer to Robotyne.

Russia continues its offensive in the Kupyansk-Kreminna Line having finally captured Novoselivske and has begun moving beyond.

Millions of people worldwide are now facing starvation as Russia has refused to extend the Ukraine grain deal allowing Ukrainian ships access to the Black Sea. Russia is holding the world in blackmail until sanctions on their agricultural products and fertilizer is lifted. But Ukraine has vowed to continue exporting grain regardless of the threats Russia imposes on its ships. Ships from other countries have also pledged to continue shipping under threat of Russian attack. Russia has responded with five days of devastating missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s grain ports around Odesa. Although most of the missiles and drones are being shot down by Ukraine air defenses, some are getting through and causing great damage, and those that are shot down are still falling as debris from the sky and destroying homes.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not risk arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and will send Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in his stead to the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) Summit to be held in South Africa next month. The ICC has an international warrant out for the arrest of Putin for war crimes, and as a signer of the ICC agreement, South Africa would be obligated to arrest Putin if he lands on South African soil. Although South African President Cyril Ramaphosa pledged not to arrest Putin as it would be a declaration of war, the South African congress is putting pressure to arrest Putin if he does come to the summit.

The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) held a summit in Europe with the European Union. When pressed to support Ukraine in its struggle against Russia, only Chile came out in support of Ukraine. CELAC officially responded that the conflict was a European problem, and they would remain neutral. A meeting of the G20 nations also failed to make a statement in support of Ukraine as India, a member of the G20, is an ally of Russia.

The U.S. approved another $1.3 billion in military support to Ukraine which includes the much needed NASAMs missile systems.

Igor Girkin, the leader of the Russian-back rebels in Donetsk since 2014, was arrested under charges of extremism. Igor Girkin, who had been critical of Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin, began to become critical of President Putin after he pardoned Prigozhin for his mutiny. Girkin wrote an opinion that Putin should not run again for President and appoint a successor.

For the first time guaranteed to anger their Russian friends, Bulgaria will send 100 armored personnel carriers directly to Ukraine instead of through a third country as they had sent arms before.

Poland summoned the Russian ambassador to answer for some provocative statements made by President Putin. In a veiled threat to Poland, Putin reminded the world that parts of western Poland were gifts from the Soviet Union implying that Russia could demand them back if Poland continues to support Ukraine.

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