It has been a week since I have given an update as we were on a trip visiting Marina’s family in what we thought would be a safe Western Ukraine region. But the war became a little more real to us as missiles dropped around us in the largest attack conducted by Russia so far in this war. On Saturday morning we left one set of relatives in the village of Kremenchuky to travel to another near Khmelnitsky, stopping along the way searching for some geocaches. That night missiles fell on both communities. The one targeting a grain factory in Kremenchuky was shot down, but debris still hit the grain silo and a nearby train station causing some damage. But the tragedy was other debris landing on a wheat field of a retired teacher who taught all of Marina’s relatives. The field caught on fire and burned completely within an hour. The farmer frantically tried to save as much of his crop as he could but died of a heart attack in the process. We slept through the missile strike near where we were sleeping in Khmelnitsky, but in the morning were told a missile had struck nearby damaging a residential building, a cultural center, a bus station, and a business center.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive continues to be focused on attrition of Russian forces rather than territorial gain. No modern army has attempted to do what Ukraine is doing without air superiority. Therefore, Ukrainian forces must move slowly.
- Russia 1 – Russia has claimed to make limited advances towards Kupyansk, but this has not been confirmed.
- Russia 2 – Both Russia and Ukraine have claimed to have made advances in this sector, but nothing has been confirmed.
- Russia 3 – Russia made no confirmed or reported advances towards Avdiivka.
- Ukraine 1 – Ukrainian forces made some minor advances in their attempt to liberate Bakhmut by moving closer to Kurdyumivka.
- Ukraine 2 – Ukrainian forces advanced another half-mile closer to Mykilske. They have now penetrated past the first line of defense which was primarily minefields, but have now reached an even more difficult Russian defense line composed of concrete-filled posts.
- Ukraine 3 – Ukraine made no confirmed advances along this sector.
- Ukraine 4 – Ukrainian forces conducted raids across the Dnipro River into Eastern Kherson on Tuesday. Seven boats containing six to seven people crossed the Dnipro River and landed and broke through Russian defenses near Kozachi Laheri. All of this was confirmed by NASA surveillance satellites. Whether they established a beachhead on the eastern bank or were forced back to the shoreline is not yet known.
Russia continued missile and drone attacks throughout Ukraine during this last week mostly targeting grain storage sites after Ukraine began talks with neutral countries to transport their grain in to bypass Russia’s renewed blockade on Ukrainian grain. Russia is trying to force the removal of sanctions on their grain exports by starving Africa of Ukrainian exports. The week before, Russia had destroyed 180,000 tons of grain. Last Wednesday another 40,000 tons were destroyed during a drone attack on the port of Odesa. It is not clear how many drones were launched in that attack, but Ukraine did shoot down 23 Iranian drones. On Thursday morning, a drone attack was launched against Kyiv, but all 15 Iranian drones were shot down. On Sunday morning Russian conducted one of its largest attacks on Ukraine (this is the one we felt during our recent trip to relatives). 61 missiles and 27 drones targeting the western Ukraine region of Khmelnitsky. Ukraine shot down all the drones and half of the missiles. The main target was the Ukrainian airfield at Starokostiantyniv where Ukraine purportedly stores the British Storm Shadow cruise missiles that have been extensively damaging Russian targets. We had driven by the airfield just hours before the attack looking for geocaches in the region on our family trip.
Ukraine conducted aerial and naval drone attacks against Russian targets on Friday. An oil depot in Feodosia, Crimea, was on fire. And the Russian troop landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak was photographed listing as it was being towed back to port. Then the following day a naval drone stuck a Russian oil tanker as it approached the Kerch Bridge. Ukraine targeted the ships engines in order to minimize an oil spill in the Black Sea creating a 20 square foot hole in the hull. On Sunday Ukraine made a crippling attack knocking out the Henichesk and Chonhar Bridges that connect Crimea with Southern Ukraine. That leaves only the Armyansk bridge open farther west in Crimea that Russia can use to resupply their troops in Southern Ukraine.
Russian General Mikhail Teplinsky announced two more formations of Russian troops that will occur before the end of the year. What makes this newsworthy is not only the increase in Russian troops projected, but that Teplinsky made the announcement. It was thought that he would be arrested because of his close relationship with the Wagner Group who staged a failed mutiny against Russia not too long ago. Teplinsky has also been an outspoken critic of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov. This signals that Teplinsky has been coerced to publicly realign himself with the Russian Ministry of Defense. But Teplinsky, who commands the Russian Airborne Forces, also shared that 8500 of his troops had been wounded or killed since the start of the war. This post was quickly taken down.
Russia is not happy with her allies who are participating in international talks to draft a peace agreement to end the war. Russian allies China, India, and South Africa are participating in the talks, and all signed on to the base principle that supports Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty as part of the agreement. Russia is not invited to these talks. Especially alarming to Russia was China’s public attempts to distance itself from Russia in this conflict at the talks.
Because of the repeated cross-border raids into Russian territory, the Russian Ministry of Defense has allocated military assets to the defense of the border regions but has ordered the weapons to be locked up unless needed. It shows Putin is still afraid of the regions having arms for which they could use against him if civil war would erupt.
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner-or-war exchange on Monday. Russia released 22 Ukrainian prisoners, but it was not announced how many Russia got back in exchange, but if it was like previous exchanges, it would have been an equal amount.