Summary: The fascist ruler of Russia is celebrating as critical support for Ukraine, which is fighting for democracy for the whole world, is taking a big hit. The US is about to freeze all aid to Ukraine for 45 days and several EU countries are also considering stopping their support. But Ukraine continues to fight on even though the US, which signed a treaty to guarantee the borders of Ukraine, continues to unconstitutionally renege on their treaty obligations.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
Russian attacks in this sector have significantly decreased as veteran Russian forces are redeploying to the Ukraine 3 sector.
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Russian attacks in this sector have significantly decreased as veteran Russian forces are redeploying to the Ukraine 3 sector.
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka/Vuhledar Line
Russian forces have not been able to wrest control of Marinka and Avdiivka since the beginning of this renewed invasion even though they both touch the outskirts of occupied Donetsk. But Russian forces did marginally advance west of Marinka threatening to surround the city on three sides.
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
Ukrainian and Russian forces have been fighting over the strategic rail lines east of Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut). Ukraine had pushed them back from the tracks, but Russian forces have taken back the positions.
Russian sources claim that Russian troops have recaptured Orikhovo-Vasylivka (8 miles NW of Bakhmut). These claims are not consistent with the confirmed advances of Ukrainian troops east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. But it must be remembered that Ukraine’s main objective is not to take Bakhmut, but to force Russian troops to defend the area rather than deploy to the Ukraine 3 sector. The fact that Russia had enough troops to counterattack in the area proves Ukraine’s strategy is working.
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Fighting has come to a virtual standstill in this sector with both sides building up their positions rather than trying to advance. Again, it is Ukraine’s main goal to force Russia to defend this area rather than deploy to Ukraine 3 sector. Russian forces had some success in their counterattacks north of Priyutne.
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
The Russian 76th Air Assault Division is defending the western flank around Kopani (8 miles SW of Orikhiv) and the Russian 7th Air Assault Division is defending the eastern flank along the Verbove-Novopokrovka line. They were both ordered to counterattack to conduct an operational encirclement of Ukrainian forces over the weekend but failed. The 7th Air Assault Division’s effectiveness has significantly declined as a result, especially with their division headquarters having been destroyed last Tuesday (September 19). Instead, Ukraine was able to break through their lines and enter Verbove from the west on Sunday and are approaching from the north as well.
Ukraine is taking advantage of the destructive order that no Russian forces are allowed to retreat from their positions. Instead of attacking the Russian 56th Air Assault Division (VDV) defending Novofedorivka (4 miles NE of Verbove), Ukrainian forces moved between Novofedorivka and Verbove threatening to encircle the 56th VDV. The commander of the 56th contacted VDV Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky about the situation and was given permission to withdraw to a safer position. Rumors are circulating that Russia has removed and maybe even arrested Teplinsky for this order. Ukraine can now take Novofedorivka at their own leisure.
Russian troops have begun using drones to attack Ukrainian forces west of Verbove which suggests they have been pushed out and that Ukrainian forces control a roughly 0.5-mile-wide trench west of Verbove which will aid them in supplying troops fighting on the outskirts of Verbove. Russian counterattacks south of Robotyne (8.5 miles S of Orikhiv) resulted in them retaking some positions they had lost.
Some Russian divisions withdrew all the way to Tokmak which suggests that Russia has no defensive positions between Verbove and Tokmak to which to retreat. When Ukraine breaks through the current line of defense, they may be able to move directly to Tokmak with little resistance. This explains why Russia is redeploying massive number of troops from other defense line positions to defend Verbove. Ukrainian forces are striking at Tokmak with HIMARS missiles to stop them from reinforcing their defenses before Ukrainian troops reach the city.
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Russian sources are reporting that Ukrainian troops have nearly taken all the islands in the Dnipro River and have established a beachhead on the eastern bank near Oleshky. Although this has not been confirmed, the increase of Russian strikes against Kherson indicate that they are concerned about this progress.
Sunday, September 24, 2023
Ukraine conducted a drone attack striking an oil refinery at Khalino Airfield and a Russian Federal Security Service building in Kursk. Several officers and personnel were killed in the attack.
Russia fired several volleys of guided bombs against targets near the frontline in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts. In Kherson Oblast, two civilians were killed and thirteen injured on attacks that also destroyed private homes. A third person was killed in Zaporizhia Oblast.
A second ship of Ukrainian grain has made it through the Black Sea corridor defended by Ukraine and NATO allies and made it to Turkey. The Palau-flagged carrier Aroyat was laden with 17,600 tons of wheat.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called their participation in CSTO, the Russian version of NATO, as ineffective as Armenia begins to leave the Russian orbit and build a relationship with Western nations.
Monday, September 25, 2023
The results of the Ukrainian missile strike on the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters on September 22 reveal that 34 Russian officers were killed, and another 105 personnel were injured, in the attack. One of those killed may have been the BSF Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov.
Ukraine launched three Storm cruise missiles against an industrial facility in occupied Sorokyne near the Russian border. They also launched a successful missile attack against the headquarters of the 758th Center for Black Sea Fleet Logistics and Technical Support in Crimea.
The Ukrainian drone strike company “Achilles” destroyed $7 million worth of Russian military equipment in one day destroying Russian tanks and howitzers.
Ukrainian partisans destroyed an electrical transformer installation near occupied Staryi Krym.
Russia launched 14 missiles and 19 drones against port, grain, and military targets. All drones were shot down as well as 11 of the missiles. Grain storage and port facilities in Odesa were hit, as well as a hotel. The hotel was an abandoned eyesore that the residents of Odesa have been petitioning to be torn down, so Russia did them a favor there.
Russian forces hi-jacked a Ukrainian drone and landed it at the Khalino Airfield near Kursk, Russia. The commander of the base and several military personnel then began to investigate the drone to learn its secrets. Their excitement was short-lived as the drone exploded killing the commander, one of his deputies, a group of aviation officers, a counterintelligence officer, and airport personnel.
Ukraine confirmed that the first of the US Abrams tanks have arrived in Ukraine.
Rochan Consulting, a Polish intelligence organization, released a report that claims the Russian Black Sea Fleet has lost its ability to conduct offensive operations against Ukraine.
Tuesday, September 26, 2023
Ukraine conducted a HIMARS strike against the headquarters of the Russian 24th Motorized Rifle regiment in occupied Kherson Oblast killing eight officers and wounding seven.
Russia launched 38 drones targeting Ukrainian port facilities, and Ukraine intercepted 26 of them. The ferry crossing that connects Ukraine to Romania was hit and a MiG-29 fighter aircraft was destroyed at the Kulbakino airfield in Mykolaiv Oblast. Russia also conducted a large airstrike against Kherson Oblast launching 26 aerial bombs.
The Ukrainian partisan group “Atesh” claimed that over the last ten days they have disabled five military fuel trucks and killed an unspecified number of Russian personnel. It has been confirmed that they are active in Luhansk. They have also assisted Ukrainian forces in successfully targeting Russian military equipment and warehouses.
Wednesday, September 27, 2023
Ukraine destroyed a Russian missile system.
Russia released a video interview of Black Sea Fleet Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov to bolster their claim that he was not killed. But the authenticity and date of the interview has not been verified. Russia has also begun an information operation accusing Sokolov of conspiring with Ukrainian officials in the destruction of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters to cover up his corruption of stealing food products. This information operation may be intended to set the groundwork that his death is not a loss to Russia as he was a traitor.
At least 500 Wagner Group personnel have been seen in Ukraine fighting alongside Russian Ministry of Defense troops suggesting that they are leaving the Wagner Group and joining the Russian conventional forces.
The Guardian reported that Iranian drones still contain over 50 European and American components despite international sanctions targeting these parts from being sold to Iran. This has been determined by the debris collected in Ukraine of downed Iranian drones launched by Russia.
The US government sent a letter outlining reforms that Kyiv needs to implement if it is to receive any more financial aid from the US, EU, or G7 nations. This does not impact military assistance though. The necessary reforms include strengthening anti-corruption agencies and resuming mandatory asset declarations of government officials and judges.
The Security Service of Ukraine has arrested two residents of Kyiv for gathering information that has been aiding Russian attacks on Kyiv.
Thursday, September 28, 2023
Russia conducted a series of drone attacks launching 44 drones over Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense shot down 35 of the drones.
Ukrainian partisans set fire to a military facility in occupied Yalta, Crimea.
Senior NATO officials met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss Ukraine’s military needs focusing on improving air defense systems.
The EU has extended the right of Ukrainian refugees to stay in the EU another year to March 2025.
Russia announced they are increasing their military budget by 70% in 2024.
Friday, September 29, 2023
Ukraine launched eleven drones against Kursk, Russia. All eleven were shot down, but not until one of them dropped an explosive on an electrical substation cutting off power to five settlements and a hospital.
Russian forces accidentally shot down one of their fighter aircraft over Tokmak.
Russia announced that their annual conscription will begin October 1 and will conscript 130,000 military recruits to train for one year. The Russian government promised that none of them will fight in Ukraine.
Saturday, September 30, 2023
Russia launched 40 military drones at military and infrastructure targets in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Vinnytsia Oblast of which Ukraine shot down thirty. A military arsenal was hit in Vinnytsia, and port infrastructure was hit in Odesa and Mykolaiv. At least one drone illegally entered Romanian airspace.
President Volodymyr Zelensky opened Ukraine’s first International Defense Industries Forum to attract more manufacturers to build arms in Ukraine. Ukraine realizes that it cannot exist forever on Western military support and must begin building its own defense industry. Officials from over 30 countries and 250 defense firms were gathered for the forum.
Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, made an unannounced visit to Odesa to show his support for Ukraine.
The US Congress passed a 45-day continuing resolution to keep its government opened, but it contains a freeze on all financial aid to Ukraine during this period. Ukraine could be in trouble as Slovaks have also gone to the polls and may elect a new government opposed to supporting Ukraine and a hundred thousand protestors have taken to the streets in the Czech Republic calling on their government to stop sending aid to Ukraine.
100,000 Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh as Azerbaijan retakes control of the region. This represents 85% of the Armenian population of the region. But Azerbaijan has encouraged them to remain and become part of Azerbaijan.