Summary: Both sides were kept to marginal advances in all sectors as Russia was losing 900 soldiers a day trying to advance on Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces were able to finally cut off a major supply route to Russian defenders in occupied Bakhmut by moving east of Klishchiivka and taking the rail line. Ukraine is also threatening to open another sector in their counteroffensive by building a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
Russia continues to make marginal advances towards Kupyansk from the north and southeast. Russian forces have moved southwest from Pershotravneve (14 miles NE) and Lyman Pershyi (7.5 miles NE). And from the southeast, Russian forces have advanced around Yahidne (15 miles SE) and Ivanivka (13 miles SE).
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Russian forces made marginal advances east of Terny (12 miles west of Svatove).
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka Line (Outskirts of Occupied Donetsk City)
Russia is determined to take Avdiivka no matter the cost, and that cost is averaging 900 Russian casualties a day (on Wednesday they lost a record 1400) for a total of 16,000 troops since the offense began on October 10. Remnants of the Wagner Group have returned to fighting against Ukraine now fighting for the capture of Avdiivka with the Russian National Guard.
This week Russia was able to make advances from the north and south of Avdiivka and have reached within range of the main supply route into Avdiivka which is under fire day and night making it difficult to supply Ukrainian troops defending the city. From the north, Russian forces advanced southwest and northwest of Krasnohorivka (5 miles N) and have reached the municipal dump on the northeast outskirts of Avdiivka. From the south, Russian forces have advanced southeast of Pervomaiske (7 miles SW).
But Ukraine is not just sitting by defending themselves but have taken offensive action themselves to relieve Avdiivka. Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian forces back towards Pisky and Opytne (4 miles SW of Avdiivka), and back from Berdychi (6 miles NW of Avdiivka).
Russian forces have also advanced towards Novomykhailivka (6 miles S of Marinka).
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
It has now been confirmed that Ukrainian forces did cross the railway tracks east of Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (7 miles S of Bakhmut) cutting off an important supply route to Russian forces defending Bakhmut.
Russia has made some advanced in the region as well moving west of the Berkhivka Reservoir (3.5 miles N of Bakhmut) and west of Kurdyumivka (9 miles S of Bakhmut). Russian forces have also moved with 3300 feet of Vasyukivka (10 miles N of Bakhmut).
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces advanced a half-mile north of Priyutne (11 miles SW of Velyki Novosilka).
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Ukrainian forces made marginal advances west of Robotyne (8.5 miles S of Orikhiv) towards Kopani (8 miles S of Orikhiv) and south of Robotyne towards Novoprokopivka (11 miles S of Orikhiv).
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Ukraine continues to maintain their positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River by holding three settlements – Krynky, Pidstepne, and Pishchanivka. Ukrainian forces have begun moving north of Pidstepne to connect with their troops in Krynky and have begun moving from the Antonivsky bridge south towards Oleshky. The goal is to create a bridgehead from Oleshky to Krynky to conduct a counteroffensive against occupied Kherson.
Russia has greatly increased their airstrikes against settlements along the west bank of the river hoping to stop an invasion across the Dnipro River injuring at least four civilians.
Sunday, October 22, 2023
Ukraine launched three missiles against Russian targets in Crimea, but Russian air defense shot them all down.
Russia conducted a series of missile and drone attacks against Ukraine. Russian launched nine missiles and five drones of which Ukrainian air defense intercepted one missile and three drones. Two missiles struck the post office terminal in Korotych near Kharkiv killing at least six postal workers and injuring another 17.
Russian opposition media is reporting an increase in forced mobilization of Central Asian migrant communities in Russia. Supposedly, a raid on a Moscow mosque was made last Friday where worshippers were forced to sign one-year military contracts and told they would be sent to Ukraine to fight. Russian singer and TV show finalist Mamut Useinov said that he was among them and was threatened with imprisonment if he did not sign the contract.
Satellite imagery indicates that Russia is building facilities in Belarus to store nuclear weapons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a telephone conversation to discuss the Hamas attack on Israel, peace talks over Malta, and Ukraine’s exports of grain.
Monday, October 23, 2023
Russia conducted another series of missile and drones attacks against Ukraine. Russia launched one missile and fourteen drones, but Ukrainian air defense shot them all down. Russia used cheaper, but less powerful, Italmas drones as well as the Iranian Shahed drones they normally use. By combining the cheaper and more effective drones, Russia is hoping to waste Ukrainian resources in shooting down the cheaper drones and allowing more of the Shahed drones to reach their targets.
The Russian 2024 budget contains a 68% increase in defense spending over 2023, which will consume 6% of Russia’s gross domestic production. Much of that will go towards increased medical expenses of wounded Russian soldiers though.
Reports from various intelligence sources have put together the Russian situation concerning artillery supplies. Russia is firing 10,000-15,000 shells a day, only 20% of what they were attacking with last summer. Russia has around four million artillery shells left which will allow them to maintain this lower level of artillery attacks for at least another year. North Korea has just delivered another 1000 containers of artillery shells which could contain up to 500,000 shells. If these deliveries continue monthly, Russia will be able to double the amount of artillery attacks, but not return to the level they were attacking with last summer.
The Associated Press released an article on how Ukrainians are preparing for another winter of Russian attacks on their energy infrastructure. Ukrainians are busy chopping wood and putting up solar panels.
A Russian court ruled that US journalist Alsu Kurmasheva will be kept in detention while awaiting trial for failing to register as a foreign agent when she travelled to Russia to visit her family. She faces up to five-years in prison if found guilty.
Ukraine received another €1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) in financial assistance from the EU bringing the total so far to €15 billion ($16 billion).
Tuesday, October 24, 2023
President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed 70 countries attending the Crimean Platform Summit and reported that Russia’s control over the Black Sea is diminishing allowing Ukrainian grain shipments to circumvent the Russian fleet under protection of NATO country fleets using public corridors.
A Telegram post by a self-proclaimed “Kremlin insider” caused a snowball effect by claiming Russian President Vladimir Putin suffered a heart attack and was found on the floor by an aide and resuscitated by medical equipment installed in his mansion.
Germany announced a new $1.4 billion military aid package to Ukraine which will include air defense missiles and artillery shells. But it does not include the long-range missiles Kyiv of which Kyiv had hoped would be given.
Wednesday, October 25, 2023
Now that Ukraine has ATACMS long-range missiles, Russia has begun moving its fleet in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea father east to their new port in occupied Abkhazia, Georgia.
Russia launched eleven drones against Khmelnitsky and Mykolaiv Oblasts, but all were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense. But falling fragments injured 16 people. The intended target was a nuclear power plant which received some damage from the falling debris. Russia also fired artillery at a fire station and hospital in Kherson. Two people were injured in the attacks.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited troops defending in the Ukraine 2 Sector and awarded soldiers for their bravery.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov gave an address to his nation which created a mix support of Russian President Putin’s policies. Kadyrov is finding it difficult to unconditionally support Putin who is more and more referring to the conflict with Ukraine as a campaign to protect the Russian Christian faith when he leads a region which is primarily Muslim.
Mike Johnson is elected the new Speaker of the House in the US. This is not good news for Ukraine as Johnson has opposed almost all aid packages to Ukraine.
Thursday, October 26, 2023
Starting today, a new Russian law allows for the revocation of citizenship for those who discredit the Russian army or commit certain crimes. This law will be used to force naturalized migrants to join the Russian army to fight against Ukraine or have their families evicted from Russia. Russia continues to resist mobilizing ethnic Russians into this war afraid of a massive backlash and relies on fighters from non-Russian ethnic groups within Russia.
The United Kingdom pledged a $121 million military aid package to Ukraine and the U.S. pledged another $150 million. The U.S. aid will include more air defense missiles, artillery shells, anti-tank weaponry, and bullets. Australia pledged $20 million in military aid which will include de-mining equipment, mobile x-ray machines, three 3D metal printers, and counter-drone systems.
The Welsh Parliament officially recognized the Holodomor as an act of genocide against Ukraine. The Holodomor was a Russian-induced famine against Ukraine in the 1930s that killed tens of millions of Ukrainians.
Newly-elected Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico announced that Slovakia would suspend sending anymore military assistance to Ukraine and called on the EU to assume the role of a peacemaker as well.
A delegation from Hamas traveled to Moscow to thank the Russian president for his support of them in their war against Israel. Russia called for a ceasefire while peace negotiations are held.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that he no longer sees the benefit of Russian bases within Armenia and has asked that those Russian troops leaving Nagorno-Karabakh to return to Russia instead of Russian bases within Armenia.
The Russian Union of Veterans have begun operating in occupied regions for the purpose of indoctrinating Ukrainian youth in Russian culture and militarizing them as patriotic Russians.
Ukrainian partisans detonated an explosive device they had placed under a Russian police car near occupied Berdyansk killing all four officers.
Friday, October 27, 2023
Russia launched a series of missile and drone attacks against Ukraine. Russia launched one missile and six drones, of which five of the drones were intercepted by air defense systems.
Denmark pledged another $520 million or military aid which includes tanks, armored fighting vehicles, artillery ammunition, and drones. Germany pledged another $5.7 billion in military aid which includes anti-aircraft missiles and air defense systems.
An assassination attempt was made against Ukrainian traitor Oleg Tsarov, a businessman and politician assisting the Russian occupation officials. He is currently in intensive care.
Rumors swirled around social media that Russian President Vladimir Putin had died of a heart attack and that coup was forming within Russia. But this seems to be another in a long line of recent “fake news” accounts.
Saturday, October 28, 2023
Russia conducted a series of missile attacks against Dnipropetrovsk Oblast launching four missiles. Three of the missiles were intercepted and the fourth missile missed its target and caused no harm.
A third round of peace talks commenced in Malta with representatives from more than 50 countries assembled, but Russia was notably not invited and vowed not to recognize any peace proposal that comes out of the summit.
The European Council ended their gathering with a statement of condemnation against Russian aggression and their staunch support of Ukraine in the conflict.