Summary: Russia has taken back the initiative with some big advances this week. Russian forces nearly took back everything they lost around Bakhmut during the Ukrainian counteroffensive and have taken most of Marinka except for a small enclave in the northwest of the city. Russian forces also took the industrial zone in the southeast outskirts of Avdiivka and have reached the southeast outskirts of Novomykhailivka. As U.S. military aid comes to an end, Ukraine is left in mortal danger. But Ukraine was not without its victories as well as they have liberated Horlivka.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
Russian forces made no confirmed advances in this sector.
Ukrainian forces levelled a heavy artillery strike against Russian forces north of Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk) resulting in many casualties.
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Russian forces advanced in the Serebrianska Forest (8 miles SW of Kreminna).
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka Line (Outskirts of Occupied Donetsk City)
Russian forces have taken the industrial zone in the southeast outskirts of Avdiivka and advanced east of Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka).
Russian forces also raised a flag on the western edge of Marinka and now controls most of the city. Ukrainian forces still hold a small enclave in the northwest part of the city. Russian forces also reached the south-east outskirts of Novomykhailivka (6 miles S of Marinka).
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces hoisted a flag over Horlivka’s waste heap on the western edge of the city confirming that Ukraine has liberated Horlivka.
Russian forces over the last four days have retaken most of what they lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Bakhmut that started last May. Russian vehicles were confirmed moving just north of Khromove (which borders Bakhmut to the west) which suggests that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from that community. Russian forces have also reached Bohdanivka (4.5 miles W of Bakhmut). And to the south they have advanced south-west towards Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut). And even farther north, Russian forces have advanced along a rail-way line north-east of Vesele (12.5 miles NE of Bakhmut). Ukrainian forces continue to hold on to Klishchiivka, Ivanivka, and Andriivka to the south.
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Neither side made any confirmed advances in this sector.
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Ukrainian forces advanced by one tree line towards Luhove (20 miles SW of Orikhiv).
Russian forces advanced east if Novoprokopivka (3 miles S of Robotyne).
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Neither side made any confirmed advances in this sector.
Sunday, December 10
It was on this day 29 years ago the United States, Britain, and Russia promised to guarantee their borders in exchange for the dismantlement of their nuclear arsenal. Ukraine agreed to this unfulfilled guarantee. Neither the U.S. nor Britain guaranteed Ukraine’s border, and Russia invaded. Ukraine is added to the list of countries that have been betrayed by the U.S.
Russia launched three missiles and a drone with two missiles getting past air defense systems and striking Velykyi Burluk, Kharkiv Oblast. Several kamikaze drones were also launched on Nikopol causing damage to energy infrastructure.
Emboldened by the U.S. suspension of military aid to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova submitted a written statement in which she emphasized that Russia will not accept any peace with Ukraine which does not include – (1) the surrender of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson Oblasts, even the portions still controlled by Ukraine; (2) the complete dismantlement of the Ukrainian military; and, (3) the overthrow of the Zelensky government to be replaced by a government of Russia’s choosing. She added that Russia will not even begin negotiations until Ukraine withdraws from the territory that Russia has illegally annexed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to South America to meet with the presidents of Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Ecuador to thank them for their vocal support of Ukraine and encourage them to participate in the Ukrainian Peace Formula talks. Uruguay already is involved in those talks.
Russian military authorities in Armenia have violated Armenia’s law and arrested a Russian citizen who had fled to Armenia to avoid conscription into the army. Russian military personnel have no jurisdiction or rights to detain anyone in Armenia. Armenia has not responded yet to this affront on their sovereignty.
Monday, December 11
Russia launched 18 drones and eight missiles targeting Kyiv Oblast, and one missile at Kryvyi Rih. All drones and missiles were intercepted by Ukrainian air defense systems. Missile fragments still injured four civilians.
Russia announced that their upcoming presidential election will conduct voting in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
The United Kingdom and Norway announced that they will together rebuild Ukraine’s Navy to prepare them for integration into NATO. Russia vowed to build up their Navy in response.
Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny has gone missing from his prison cell. His lawyers discovered that he was moved when they went to consult with him, and there is no information concerning where he was moved.
A new law went into effect in Russia that all conscripted Russian soldiers must turn in their international passports, and they will only be returned once they complete their military service. This is another step to prevent desertion.
President Zelensky met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Argentina during the inauguration of Argentine President Javier Milei. They discussed Orban’s opposition to Ukraine becoming a member of the EU.
Polish truckers blocking the Ukraine/Poland border demanding the end of permitless Ukrainian trucking have unblocked the main checkpoint as negotiations continue.
The International Olympic Committee has approved eight Russian athletes and three Belarusian athletes to complete as neutral athletes at the 2024 Olympics to be held in Paris. The EU is considering denying them visas though.
Serbia has opened a new gas pipeline to Azerbaijan to bypass importing gas from Russia.
Tuesday, December 12
Russia launched 15 drones and two missiles at targets in Ukraine. Ukraine air defense systems intercepted nine of the drones and both missiles. One drone damaged an administration building in Odesa.
Russian cyberattacks also brought down temporarily Kyivstar mobile phone lines leaving millions without phone service. This attack also brought down all ATMs of the two largest banks of Ukraine, streetlights in Lviv, and air raid systems in several cities in Ukraine. But Ukraine conducted their own cyberattack that has brought down the servers of Russia’s tax system which will paralyze the tax service.
President Zelensky met with President Joe Biden at the White House to thank the U.S. for their support and partnership in their struggle against Russia. Biden announced that he approved a $200 million military aid package to Ukraine for aid defense systems and artillery, but warned that unless Congress approved more funds, this will be the last aid package.
Poland voted to oust the conservative party and returned a more pro-EU party to control of the legislature. Although the former government of Poland was supportive of Ukraine, they did push back against the EU in allowing Ukraine to ship grain through Poland. The new government is expected to be more supportive of Ukraine.
Wednesday, December 13
Russia launched ten drones and ten missiles against Kyiv. All the drones and missiles were intercepted by air defense systems but falling debris still caused 53 civilian injuries. Nine drones were also launched against Odesa, but all were intercepted. Twelve civilians were injured from falling debris.
President Zelensky attended the second Ukraine-Northern Europe Summit in Oslo, Norway. He met with the leaders of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland who all signed a letter pledging support of Ukraine in her struggle against Russia. Denmark pledged another $1.1 billion in military aid, and Norway promised another $1.8 billion. Sweden and Finland stated that they too will provide more aid to Ukraine this winter.
Pro-EU Donald Tusk returns as Prime Minister of Poland. On his first day in office, he called on NATO countries to enter “full mobilization” to prepare for war against Russia and defend Ukraine.