Summary: Russian forces have entered the northern outskirts of Synkivka, taken the industrial zone in the southeastern outskirts of Avdiivka, and nearly taken all Marinka.
Russia 1 – Kupyansk/Svatove Line
After numerous attempts over numerous months, Russian forces finally reached the northern outskirts of Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk) putting the settlement back into contest.
Russia 2 – Svatove/Kreminna Line
Neither side made any confirmed advances in this sector.
Russia 3 – Avdiivka/Marinka Line (Outskirts of Occupied Donetsk City)
Russian forces continue to move north along the railway line north of Avdiivka reaching the next tree line. In the city itself, Ukrainian forces have retreated from the industrial zone in the southeast suburbs of Avdiivka and Russian forces have reached the first houses.
Ukrainian forces made a large-scale assault to retake their lost positions in Marinka but failed and incurred heavy casualties. Russian forces took advantage of this defeat and took a little more of the northwestern enclave of Marinka that is still under Ukrainian control and advanced from Marinka toward Pobieda (2.5 miles SW of Marinka). Russian forces also made gains towards Novomykhailivka (6 miles S of Marinka).
Ukraine 1 – Liberate Bakhmut
After retaking most of the territory they lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Bakhmut, Russian forces are now concentrating south of Bakhmut and have reached the fortified position on the high ground north of Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut). Russian forces also advanced north of Khromove which borders Bakhmut to the west.
Ukraine 2 – Drive to Berdyansk from Velyka Novosilka
Neither side made any confirmed or claimed advances in this sector.
Ukraine 3 – Drive to Melitopol from Orikhiv
Russian forces attacked Ukrainian forces northwest of Verbove (13 miles SE of Orikhiv) which revealed that Ukrainian forces control more territory in the area than was previously known.
Ukraine 4 – Liberate Eastern Kherson
Ukrainian forces continue to hold on to Krynky on the left bank of the Dnipro River.
Thursday, December 14
Ukraine struck occupied Mariupol with HIMARS striking the Port City shopping mall where Russia stores military equipment and an air defense system. They also struck a concrete factory.
Russia launched 42 drones and six missiles mainly at port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast. Ukrainian air defense intercepted 41 of the drones. It was not reported how many missiles were intercepted. The falling debris injured eleven civilians, including three children. The debris damaged two granaries, a nearby vehicle, and eleven other buildings. The debris from one drone fell within Romanian territory.
Released drone footage shows Russian soldiers using Ukrainian POWs as shields as they advance towards Robotyne in Ukraine 3 sector. The Ukrainian soldiers are unarmed and are being forced forward at gunpoint. At least one Ukrainian POW was executed by a Russian soldier. Ukraine has filed criminal proceedings based on the video.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held his annual Direct Line forum where he answers pre-selected questions from the Russian public. He had skipped the event last year as he was not confident concerning the invasion of Ukraine. But the fact that he held it this year, and spent much time discussing the war, shows that he is feeling much more confidence that Russia will win this conflict. He made it clear that the three goals have not changed: (1) The overthrow of the Ukrainian government and its replacement by a pro-Russian regime of Russia’s choosing; (2) The dismantlement of the Ukrainian military; and (3) and the amendment of Ukraine’s constitution declaring it a neutral country unable to join any military alliances such as NATO nor join the European Union. He also suggested that Russia may take even more territory than they have annexed but also Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts. He also stated that Russia has 617,000 troops fighting in Ukraine, which is much more than the 420,000 that Ukrainian intelligence has estimated. He also spoke about the Russian economy in positive terms as growing despite Western sanction and was critical of Israel’s war against Gaza.
The trial of nationalist leader Igor Girkin commenced with the reading of the charges and Girkin pleading not guilty. Girkin was a leader during the 2014 invasion of Ukraine and wanted Russia to fully conquer Ukraine at that time. He was highly critical of the poor performance of the Russian military and stated that “it was not enough to shoot” the Russian commanders who failed to topple Ukraine. Girkin is being charged with incitement of violence against Russian officers, but Girkin stated that it was just an emotional response not meant to be taken literally. The trial was adjourned until December 20.
An intercepted telephone call between a Russian soldier on the field and his wounded friend in a military hospital. The two were complaining of not receiving leave for two years and the uninjured one said, “soon we will gather a crowd and head towards Moscow.”
The European Union voted to formally open EU accession negotiations to Ukraine and Moldova, both countries with Russian forces occupying territory. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called it a “bad decision” and vowed to use his veto powers to prevent any financial aid to be given to Ukraine by the EU (individual countries within the EU can still provide funds).
The US Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act which includes authorization of $300 million in military aid to Ukraine in 2024 and 2025.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to Germany to bolster support. He picked up a new air defense system provided by Germany and met with US military at a base in Germany. Germany also pledged ammunition, mine clearing systems, and drone detection systems.
Finland reopened two of its borders with Russia but stated they would close them again if Russia allowed another wave of Middle Eastern migrants to reach the border seeking asylum.
Friday, December 15
Pro-Ukrainian Russian volunteers blew up an oil depot in Voronezh, Russia.
Russia launched another barrage of drones and missiles against Ukraine. Ukrainian aid defense systems intercepted 14 drones and three missiles. The numbers of weapons launched was not reported, but targets were hit in Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnitsky, Kharkiv, Poltava, Kyiv, and Odesa Oblasts.
German outlet BILD reported that they had obtained intelligence that Russia plans on taking more territory than the four illegally annexed regions. The goal of 2024 will be to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and parts of Kharkiv Oblast up to the Oskil River. Then by 2026 they plan on taking most of Zaporizhia and Kharkiv Oblasts and parts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. This includes Kharkiv city, the second largest Ukrainian city.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed this report by demanding Ukraine unconditionally surrender now or Russia will take even more territory.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba published an op-ed that argues Ukraine can still defeat Russia if the following three conditions are met: (1) an adequate level of Western military aid; (2) the rapid development of industrial capacity in the US, Europe, and Ukraine; and (3) a unified and principled approach of negotiations with Russia.
A local government official in the village of Keretsky, Zakarpattia Oblast, casually tossed three live grenades in a council meeting injuring 26 of his fellow council members including himself. The motive for the attack is not yet known. Keretsky is about forty miles from our house.
Finland closed all its border crossings with Russia one day after they had reopened two of them. In that one day, 36 Middle Eastern migrants requested asylum, which is more than the normal amount over a whole month.
Japan extended their sanctions by adding 57 Russian organizations and six others in the United Arab Emirates, Armenia, Syria, and Uzbekistan.
The World Bank announced a grant of $1.34 billion in funds for Ukraine. These funds are targeted for teacher’s salaries, pension disbursements, and support of IDPs.
Saturday, December 16
Ukrainian partisans blew up the car of a military officer in Mariupol which caused him to be hospitalized.
Russia launched 31 drones across Ukraine with Ukrainian air defense systems intercepting 30 of them.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been officially nominated as an independent candidate for the 2024 presidential elections.