Summary: Battles continue to wage all along the fronts. Ukrainian forces were able to push Russian forces out of Synkivka, but Russian forces improved their position around Bakhmut, retook some lost territory along the Zaporizhian Front, and reached the outskirts of Kurdyumivka to the southwest of occupied Donetsk.
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia
The fight for Synkivka (6 miles NE of Kupyansk) continues. Russian forces advanced in the forest area to the northwest of the city, but Ukrainian forces were victorious in pushing Russian forces out of the northern outskirts of the city removing the city from being under contest for the moment.
Siversky Donets Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces conducted an assault towards Spirne (8 miles SE of Siversk) but were repelled by Ukrainian defenders.
Both sides made advances around Bakhmut, but Russian forces made the most significant. Russian forces have taken full control over the high positions over Khromove (2.5 miles W of Bakhmut) in preparation for an assault and they have taken half of the dacha region to the southwest of Bakhmut. Russian forces also advanced northwest of Bilohorivka (13.5 miles NE of Bakhmut). Farther south, Russian forces also captured the tree line northwest of Kurdyumivka (9 miles S of Bakhmut). Ukrainian forces advanced north of Andriivka (7 miles S of Bakhmut) around the water reservoir.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Based on drone footage, it was estimated that Russia’s major assaults against Avdiivka over the weekend resulted in 3000 Russian soldiers being killed or wounded, and the destruction of 75 tanks and 100 armored personnel carriers, record number of losses for Russia in one weekend. Russian forces were held back for the most part in the Battle for Avdiivka over the last four days only advancing one tree line northeast of Vodiane (5 miles W of Avdiivka) towards Avdiivka and marginally advancing near Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka). Since the weekend assault, Russian forces have reached the southeastern outskirts of Novomykhailivka (18 miles SW of occupied Donetsk), made marginal gains north of Pervomaiske (7.5 miles SW of Avdiivka), and marginal advances in the quarry area just southwest of Avdiivka.
Ukrainian forces also made some gains east of Nevelske (11 miles W of occupied Donetsk).
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Ukraine
Russian forces have retaken territory they lost east of Novoprokopivka (2.5 miles S of Robotyne).
Left Bank Front – Initiative Ukraine
Ukrainian forces continue to hold on to Krynky (24 miles NE of Kherson) but Russian forces have made marginal gains within the community.
Sunday, December 17
Ukraine launched several drones against targets in Russian territory. Russia claimed to have intercepted 35 drones. At least one Russian aircraft was damaged at the Morozovk airfield in Rostov Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a mixed message in a television interview where he said out of one side of his mouth that Russia has no intention of attacking a NATO country in the future, but then out of the other side of his mouth he said that Finland’s accession to NATO will cause “problems” and that Russia has thus responded with a buildup of forces near the Finnish border. Putin also expressed confidence that Russia will win this conflict pointing to the weakness of the US in abandoning their Ukrainian ally in their time of need.
The suicide grenade attack during a city council meeting two days ago in the village of Keretsky, Zakarpattia Oblast, was declared an act of terrorism. The first city council member at that meeting died of his injuries last night. The motive for the attack has not been released. The killer, who is also in critical condition, is a member of Zelensky’s political party.
Russia launched two missiles and twenty drones against Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense intercepted all but one missile. The one missile that survived missed its target. The falling debris still caused damage. One falling drone hit a private residence in Odesa causing an explosion and killing one person. Other debris damaged a sports facility causing a fire.
A recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology revealed that the number of Ukrainians who would be willing to concede territory for peace with Russia is slowly increasing. Six months ago, the percentage was 10%, but in this latest poll support has nearly doubled to 19%. But 80% of Ukrainians still are not willing to cede any territory to Russia.
In an interview with Bild, Ukraine Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba revealed that it was German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who convinced Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to leave the hall rather than cast his veto on starting Ukrainian accession to the EU last week. This allowed the vote to pass which requires unanimity. Orban still threatened to veto any EU financial support to Ukraine unless the EU lifts all sanctions against Hungary for its obstinance towards EU directives.
A wiretap device was found in an office space being prepared for Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny, but it was not yet in operational mode. It is not yet known who planted the device. Some assume that it was planted by Russian sympathizers, but it just as likely could have been planted by supporters of President Zelensky who has been publicly at odds with his commander-in-chief.
The New York Times released interviews from frontline Ukrainian soldiers who shared that the casualties suffered by Ukrainian forces is much higher than what is being reported.
Monday, December 18
The Russian legislature has submitted a bill that has wide support that will make it a crime for anyone in the world who spreads “Russophobia” which is defined as acts or public calls to commit discriminatory actions against Russia or its “compatriots”. A “compatriot” is defined as anyone in the world who is an ethnic Russian or whose primary language is Russian. This will only impact those foreigners who are doing business with Russia or wish to visit Russia as their arrests can only happen if they enter Russian-controlled regions of the world.
The European Union adopted its 12th sanctions package in response to Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine. Most of the sanctions are levelled at foreign entities that illegally assist Russia in its transit of oil and natural gas. Also banned is the importation of Russian diamonds.
Several members of the European Union are toying with the idea of suspending Hungary’s vote in the EU to stop Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban from casting a veto on EU financial support of Ukraine. It would take a unanimous vote of the remaining members to strip Hungary of their vote which would have been impossible a month ago. But with the change in the Polish government, Hungary has lost its guaranteed advocate in the EU.
A survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology reveals that the rift between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny is hurting Zelensky’s public support. Prior to the public rift, 84% of Ukrainian citizens trusted Zelensky with only 5% not trusting. Trust in Zelensky has now dropped to 62% with 18% not trusting. Although public support in Zelensky is still high, it has significantly dropped. In contrast, 88% of Ukrainian trust Zaluzhny with only 4% not trusting. But the big winners were the ground commanders of our fighting men and women who have earned the trust and admiration of 96% of Ukrainians.
Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, in a televised interview, reported that the bug found in the office being built for him is not the only one. A sweep was conducted of all locations where Zaluzhny conducts meetings and several bugs have been found.
Reuters released an interview with Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi in which he shared that Ukrainian forces have had to stop the counteroffensive and return to a defensive mode since the US is no longer supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia at the level it once was. And that support is soon to be completely cut off. Ammunition shortages are already being felt along all fronts. This is the main reason for Russia reversing most of the gains made from the counteroffensive. But Russia is also short on supply. The race is on for who will be resupplied the fastest which is most likely Russia as it has solid supporters rather than the wishy-washy US partner with whom Ukraine is saddled. Europe is picking up some of the slack, but their assistance will come later rather than now. Thanks to Iran, Russia has a never-ending supply of drones allowing them to continue making daily terrorist attacks across Ukraine.
A New York Times investigation reported how Russian President Vladimir Putin turned international sanctions to his benefit in solidifying support amongst the oligarchs. Despite what was supposed to be crippling actions against the Russian economy, the Russian economy continues to grow. The report shows how Putin gained from the sanctions as Western companies were forced to shut down their operations within Russia. Russia imposed heavy exit taxes on these companies which infused over $100 billion into the Russian economy. One example was the Dutch beer manufacturer Heineken. They were forced to sell all their shares worth €300 million to a Putin ally for only €1. Similar action was taken against Danish beer manufacturer Carlsberg, Swedish furniture maker Ikea, and automotive companies such as Nissan, Renault, and Toyota. That is how they survived 2023 and 2024. Russia is just outwaiting the west to tire of its support of Ukraine.
Tuesday, December 19
Russian President Vladimir Putin cast himself as a modern Russian Tsar in an address he gave to the Russian Ministry of Defense. He blamed NATO for encroaching on their border for the conflict with Ukraine, as well as Russia’s “responsibility” to support their compatriots that live in Ukraine. He blamed the poor performance of the Russian military in the first days of the invasion on the bureaucracy within the Russian Ministry of Defense and lauded his buildup of the Russian defense industrial base. He positioned Russia as the guarantor of Ukrainian sovereignty asserting his view that Ukraine is part of historical Russia.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu also addressed the Russian Ministry of Defense again threatening Finland in his speech because of their accession to NATO. He referred to two new military districts being formed near the Finnish border in response.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave an end-of-the-year press conference where he touted that Ukraine prevented Russia from accomplishing their war goals for 2023. He expressed confidence that both the US and Europe would continue their military support of Ukraine and that Ukraine has increased its military production as well, claiming that Ukraine will produce one million drones in 2024. He stated that lack of finances prevents him from mobilizing an additional half million troops to defend Ukraine. When asked about his relationship with Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny, Zelensky responded that they have a “working relationship.”
Ukraine Reserve Major General of the Security Service of Ukraine Viktor Yagun stated that he believes the bug planted in Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny’s office is a fake device planted by Russian information to create a persona that there is a rift between President Zelensky and Zaluzhny. Yagun noted that the recording system was missing and even if it was functional, it would not have been a threat because of jamming devices that would prevent its signal from transmitting.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin arrived in China to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping to strengthen the relationship between the two allies and to lower the two countries reliance on the US dollar.
The US Congress approved a mere $300 million in military assistance to Ukraine in 2024, which represents only 0.04% of the US military budget for 2024. The US military had requested $61 billion. The US has provided $43 billion in military aid over the last two years, which is only 2.6% of their military spending. But this mere $43 billion had eliminated Russia as a major threat. It was the best money the US spent for its defense. Congress just gave Russia a huge Christmas bonus and has condemned tens of thousands of Ukrainians to their death in defense of world democracy.
Showing much more backbone than the US Congress, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and French Foreign Secretary Catherine Colonna vowed their two countries would support Ukraine to the end stating it was essential the Putin be defeated in his aim to destroy worldwide western democracy.
Wednesday, December 20
After a one-day reprieve, Russia launched another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine. Nineteen drones and two missiles. All but one of the drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defense systems. The two missiles struck targets in Kharkiv but there were no casualties. Russia also shelled Kherson city injuring nine civilians, including four children.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov in response to a press question, stated that Russia is no longer interested in negotiating with Ukraine and will accept nothing less than Ukraine’s complete acceptance of their conditions for peace which is the loss of 22.5% of Ukrainian territory to Russia, the complete dismantling of the Ukrainian military and no foreign military alliances other than with Russia, and a Ukrainian regime change approved by the Russian government.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin issued a joint communique stating the strong partnership between the two countries. Notably absent was any mention of the conflict with Ukraine offering some hope that China is not giving Russia a no-limit partnership agreement. This is probably the only reason Russia has not used nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
The US Senate did not approve the 2024 budget approved the day before in the House of Representatives. This means that the paltry $300,000 in military aid to Ukraine is not final. This is both good and bad news depending on where it goes from here. Either the Senate will insist on more aid to Ukraine, or even the mere $300 million will be cut totally.