Summary: Russian troops claim to be moving on Avdiivka from all directions as both sides trade territories around Bakhmut.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Sloboda Front – Initiative Russia – Target: Recapture Kupyansk
Siversky Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Zherebets River, Siversk, & Chasiv Yar
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia – Targets: Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, & advance from occupied Marinka
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative None – Targets: Staromaiorske, Urozhaine, & Robotyne
Dnipro Left Bank Front – Initiative None – Target: Krynky
Positional fighting continues daily in all five sectors of the frontline. A look at Russian reserves in rear areas of occupied Ukraine reveal Russia’s main objectives and fears in this war. The highest concentration of Russian reserves is in the southeast showing that the main goal of Russia is to take Avdiivka and advance further from Bakhmut with the second largest concentration of forces dedicated to retaking Kupyansk. But the third largest concentration is near the Dnipro River revealing that Russia’s greatest fear is a Ukrainian counteroffensive across the Dnipro River liberating occupied Kherson and cutting off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine’s current strategy of active defense is allowing Russia to choose when and where to strike. Ukraine must regain the initiative if it hopes to defeat Russia. Here is a synopsis of confirmed and claimed advances since my last report (color coded for sectors).
Russia has dramatically increased the number of air and artillery strikes in the Kupyansk direction over the weekend near Ivanivka and Kyslivka (13.5 miles SE of Kupyansk), their current main objectives.
Russian sources admit that Russian forces have not yet taken full control of Tabaivka (14 miles SE of Kupyansk) but made unconfirmed claims that they have taken the heights around Krokhmalne overlooking Tabaivka.
General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, visited troops in Kupyansk to build morale and strengthen the defense of the strategic city.
Russian forces made unconfirmed claims of a “serious breakthrough” in the advancement towards Terny on the Zherebets River.
Ukrainian forces have recaptured lost territory to the east of Klishchiivka (5 miles S of Bakhmut) while Russian forces have gained territory to the northwest of Klishchiivka over the weekend. Russian sources made some unconfirmed claims that Ukrainian forces have recaptured several positions north of Bohdanivka (5 miles W of Bakhmut).
Russian forces have made confirmed advances towards Avdiivka from the east and have made unconfirmed claims that they have advanced north, south, and southwest towards Avdiivka closing in on the city. They claim to the north that Russian forces advanced a mile along the sand quarry in the northern outskirts of the city and 2000 feet near Stepove (5 miles NW of Avdiivka). And to the south they claim to have advanced east of the Tsarska Okhota restaurant just south of Avdiivka and advanced a half mile near Opytne (3 miles SW of Avdiivka).
Russian forces made a marginal advance northwest from Marinka over the weekend.
Russian sources made an unconfirmed claim of capturing a Ukrainian position near Novomykhailivka on Saturday but this is unlikely after suffering a huge defeat days before.
Ukrainian forces stopped a Russian assault south of Zolota Nyva (7 miles SE of Velyka Novosilka). Russian forces made an unconfirmed claim to have advanced from occupied Priyutne (11 miles SW of Velyka Novosilka) towards Novodarivka (4 miles NW of Priyutne).
Russian fighters attempting to reach Robotyne are finding it difficult because of Ukrainian drone attacks and their insufficient electronic warfare capabilities to stop the drones.
President Zelensky visited the troops along the Zaporizhia Line to strengthen their morale and then visited the Eastern Air Command to discuss measures to prove Ukraine’s air defense systems and anti-drone measures.
Likewise, Russian forces attempting to push Ukrainian forces out of Krynky on the left bank of the Dnipro River are also finding it difficult to counter Ukrainian drones even though they outnumber Ukrainian troops two to one.
Human Cost Of The War
Russia launched 15 drones and 2 missiles targeting energy infrastructure around Kryvyi Rih on Saturday morning, with Ukrainian air defense intercepting 11 of the drones and one missile. Tens of thousands of people were left without power in the freezing winter. Ten Russian saboteurs were stopped from infiltrating into the border town of Hlukhivska, Sumy Oblast. Russia claims that Ukraine conducted two attacks on the border town of Demidovka, Russia, but there were no casualties. It has been confirmed that the Russian corvette ship that Ukraine had struck last Thursday had sunk with all 40 crew presumably dead.
1 Ukrainian civilian was killed and another 10 injured from Russian attacks over the weekend:
- A Russian attack injured a 34-year-old man and a 63-year-old woman in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Saturday.
- Russia carried out 67 attacks in Kherson Oblast on Saturday injuring seven people, including one child.
- A Russian attack hit a granary in Poltava Oblast on Saturday destroying some of the harvest stored within. There were no casualties in the attack.
- A Russian attack on Toretsk on Sunday killed one civilian and hospitalized two others.
The Ukraine General Staff reported that there were 840 Russian casualties on Sunday.
Ukraine News
The Ukrainian Security Service conducted a successful drone attack against one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in Volgograd, Russia on Saturday. Two drones struck the refinery resulting in a fire that spread to 3250 square feet at the Lukoil refinery.
President Zelensky was asked in a press interview whether he had dismissed Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhny. Zelensky did not confirm nor deny the rumor in his response but said there were many changes coming to leadership in Ukraine beyond just the military and it is not directed at any one person.
President Zelensky fired Zaporizhian Governor Yurii Malashko and replaced him with former mayor of now occupied Melitopol Ivan Fedorov who refused to collaborate with Russian occupiers of his city.
6.3 million metric tons of goods were exported through ports in Odesa Oblast, almost at the same levels before Russia’s renewed invasion of February 2022.
Ukraine sent a note of protest to the Nicaraguan government for receiving a delegation of Russian officials from occupied Crimea. Nicaragua is one of the few countries in the world that recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea.
Ukrainian powerlifter Oleksandr Bilokon was killed in action on Sunday. He held the title of world and European champion when he joined the Ukrainian army in March 2023.
Ukraine’s Allies
President Zelensky announced late night on Friday that an unspecified ally had delivered two air defense systems that are able to “bring everything down.”
Germany passed its 2024 budget which includes $8.2 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated on Saturday that Estonia has provided Ukraine with Javelins, machine guns, small arms ammunition, land and water vehicles, and driving equipment.
Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev announced on Saturday that more of the 100 armored personnel carriers promised to Ukraine have been delivered.
The U.S. House of Representatives announced they will hold a vote this coming week on military assistance for Israel but will not include any assistance for Ukraine. The White House condemned this announcement as playing politics at the expense of Ukrainian lives. The following day, the U.S. Senate unveiled a bill to strengthen the US border that includes $60 billion in military support for Ukraine.
HBO cancelled the casting of Serbian-Russian actor Milos Bikovic in the upcoming third season of White Lotus due to the actor’s pro-Russian sentiments concerning the invasion of Ukraine.
Life in Occupied Regions
Russian military engineers are teaching classes for high school students and members of the Yunarmia youth organization at a school in occupied Mariupol. They instructed them about mines and other explosives and what to do if they encounter them. Ukrainian students are also being taught combat skills along with their other school curriculum. They are also being taught to hate Ukraine and love Russia.
Russia
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova condemned on Saturday the US retaliatory strike against Iranian proxies who had attacked and killed US servicemembers first. Zakharova presented the Russian response condemning both the U.S. and the UK for inflaming the situation and announcing that Russia has called for a special meeting of the UN Security Council for Monday to discuss this “complete disregard for international law.”
The Kremlin censored a protest on Saturday of around 200 wives of mobilized soldiers who had laid flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow and then peacefully held a protest at Manezhnaya Square to commemorate the 500th day since President Putin began partial mobilization in 2022. The state media was prevented from reporting on the protest, but it was covered by opposition media outlets. The women were briefly detained and released but continued their protest outside of the police station demanding that the journalists who had covered their protest also be released. They were finally assuaged by being allowed to visit Putin’s campaign headquarters and submit a letter to the president himself. The Kremlin understands the power of such movements and did not want to inflame the situation which could grow out of control.
A Russian soldier imprisoned for refusing to fight in Ukraine died of blunt force trauma back in November according to one of his prison mates who is believed to be dead now as well. The informer claims that many such soldiers have died of torture in Russian prisons.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Militaryland.net (maps)