Deniable Warfare: The Day of Contradictions in Ukraine

As Kremlin Denies Ukrainian Government’s Legitimacy and Reports No Long-Range Strikes, Zelensky Confirms Ukrainian Troops in Belgorod While Seven Civilians Injured Across Ukraine

Summary of the Day — April 7, 2025

The Kremlin returned to familiar rhetoric, denying Ukraine’s legitimacy as a negotiating partner on the same day that no Russian long-range missile or drone strikes were reported for the first time since December 2024. President Zelensky confirmed Ukrainian forces are operating in both Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod oblasts, declaring “the war must return to where it came from,” while Russian forces continued tactical advances across multiple sectors. European support flowed with Norway pledging $454 million for artillery ammunition and Pope Francis donating four ambulances for frontline use. Meanwhile, darker currents appeared beneath the surface: U.S. security agencies reportedly suspended cooperation with European partners on countering Russian hybrid activities, Ukrainian military technology developers faced sophisticated cyberattacks, and intelligence revealed India’s first component in Russian weapons systems.

an apartment building at night with smoke coming out of the window A clergyman of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine holds a teddy bear during a religious ceremony in the courtyard of a residential building in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. A Russian missile strike on Kryvyi Rih on April 4, 2025 killed 20 people, nine of them children, according to local authorities. (Vladyslav Musienko / AFP via Getty Images)

Legitimacy Denied: Kremlin Claims Ukraine’s Government Lacks Control

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed on April 7 that while Russian President Vladimir Putin supports the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine, several issues remain “hanging in the air”—most notably the alleged “lack of control” over the Ukrainian government and its purported inability to control “extremist and nationalist units” that “simply do not obey” Kyiv’s orders.

These statements mark a return to Putin’s March 28 narrative falsely claiming the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and incapable of combating neo-Nazi groups, which Putin claimed have the “actual power in their hands.” This rhetoric aims to undermine Ukraine’s standing as a legitimate negotiating partner and repackages Russia’s long-standing demands for regime change and demilitarization.

The Kremlin temporarily paused these delegitimization claims following Putin’s February 12 phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, only to resume them in late March. Trump recently expressed dissatisfaction with Putin’s disparaging remarks attacking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s legitimacy, raising the possibility of additional sanctions if the U.S. and Russia fail to “make a deal.”

The Unusual Silence: Russia Halts Long-Range Strikes After Major Attack

For the first time since December 12, 2024, Ukrainian officials reported no Russian long-range missile or drone strikes during the night of April 6-7 or during the day on April 7. This pause follows Russia’s largest strike package in over a month on the night of April 5-6.

The reason for this unusual halt remains unclear. Security analysts suggest Russia may be experimenting with its strike packages to increase effectiveness and could be preparing to conduct another large-scale strike in the near future. The timing is particularly notable given ongoing ceasefire negotiations and Trump’s recent expressions of frustration with continued Russian bombing.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed without evidence on April 7 that Ukrainian forces conducted six strikes against Russian energy infrastructure facilities in Rostov, Voronezh, and Bryansk oblasts and in occupied Crimea and Donetsk and Kherson oblasts—accusations that appear designed to justify Russia’s own continued strikes.

The Human Cost: Seven Civilians Wounded in Russian Attacks

At least seven people were injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine on April 7, regional authorities reported. In Kherson Oblast, a pregnant woman and a child were wounded by Russian shelling. The six-months-pregnant woman suffered blast and head injuries, while the boy sustained an explosive wound and a contusion.

The aftermath of a Russian attack against Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. (Governor Oleh Syniehubov / Telegram)

Two more people—a 67-year-old man and a 79-year-old woman—were injured in Kharkiv Oblast, where several apartment buildings in the city of Kupiansk were also damaged, according to Governor Oleh Syniehubov. In Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a Russian attack wounded three civilians—a 62-year-old man and two women aged 23 and 57, Governor Serhii Lysak reported.

Smoke rise from the burning house as firefighters continue to extinguish the fires following Russian attacks on Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. (Ukraine State Emergency Service / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

These civilian casualties occurred despite the unusual absence of long-range missile or drone strikes overnight, highlighting the ongoing danger to Ukrainian civilians even during relatively quieter periods.

Ukraine’s Cross-Border Strategy: Zelensky Confirms Troops in Belgorod

President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed in his evening address on April 7 that Ukrainian forces are present in both Kursk and Belgorod oblasts inside Russia. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on “the front, our presence in Kursk, and our presence in Belgorod. We continue to conduct active operations in border areas on enemy territory, and this is absolutely just—the war must return to where it came from,” Zelensky stated.

The confirmation follows Russia’s claim to have captured the village of Basivka in Sumy Oblast, which would mark a significant advance across the Ukrainian border. However, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko denied these claims, calling them part of a “disinformation campaign” while acknowledging ongoing Russian attempts to send small assault groups across the border in the Novenke-Basivka direction.

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces reported striking three Russian Buk air defense systems in the Kursk direction within 12 hours on April 7. Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against two Buk-M3 air defense system launchers, damaging their radars, and against one Buk-M2 launcher, detonating its missiles and destroying the launcher.

Trump’s Contradictory Signals: Russia Exempt from Tariffs but Bombing Criticized

U.S. President Donald Trump, who excluded Russia from new global tariffs set to take effect on April 9, told reporters on April 7 that the exemption was because “we’re not doing business, essentially, with Russia, because they’re at war.” Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, Trump expressed disappointment with Russia’s ongoing strikes: “I’m not happy about what’s going on with the bombing because they’re bombing like crazy right now… That’s not a good situation.”

Trump added that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine is “getting sort of close,” despite Moscow’s continued rejection of a comprehensive ceasefire and escalation of its maximalist rhetoric regarding Ukraine’s legitimacy. The U.S. president’s comments highlight the contradictions in Washington’s approach, as peace negotiations continue while Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities persist.

Norwegian Artillery Aid: $454 Million Committed to Shell Production

Norway announced on April 7 it will allocate approximately $454 million for the purchase of artillery ammunition for Ukraine. About $363 million will be devoted to the Czech-led initiative to provide Kyiv with artillery shells, while another $91 million will be allocated to the European Peace Fund (EPF). The Czech initiative has already supplied Kyiv with 1.5 million rounds of ammunition in 2024, including 500,000 large-caliber 155mm and 152mm shells, and has secured funding to continue monthly deliveries until September 2025.

“We are now strengthening our cooperation with the EU to provide Ukraine with, among other things, more artillery ammunition,” said Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store. “Europe must assume greater responsibility for supporting Ukraine in its fight for freedom.”

Norway’s funds are part of the country’s recent decision to increase aid for Ukraine to $7.8 billion in 2025, making it one of Ukraine’s most committed European backers, providing military aid, humanitarian assistance, and financial support.

German Industrial Mobilization: Rheinmetall Addresses Artillery Ammunition Bottleneck

German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall announced on April 7 it will acquire and repurpose German nitrocellulose producer “Hagerdorn-NC” for weapons production—a key step in ongoing efforts to increase Europe’s capacity for manufacturing ammunition propellants, particularly for 155mm artillery shells.

Nitrocellulose, also known as guncotton, is a crucial component of propellants for modern artillery ammunition. The acquisition aims to address a critical bottleneck in European ammunition production that has hindered support for Ukraine. Rheinmetall plans to increase its production of gunpowder by over 50 percent by 2028, while its subsidiary Nitrochemie Aschau has already increased production capacity by 60 percent since Russia’s full-scale invasion began.

NATO General Secretary Mark Rutte told CBS News on April 7 that he has urged U.S. and European leaders to ramp up defense spending and defense industrial production amid concerns of future Russian aggression against Europe, noting that NATO states combined manufacture four times fewer ammunition rounds than Russia despite having an economy 20 times larger.

The Vatican’s Ambulance Diplomacy: Pope Francis Donates Critical Medical Equipment

Pope Francis is donating four ambulances to Ukraine to be used on the front lines of the war with Russia, the Vatican announced on April 7. The ambulances will be fully equipped with all necessary medical equipment and will carry the coat of arms of the Vatican.

“The Holy Father has decided once again to send his almoner to Ukraine to offer four ambulances, equipped with all medical equipment necessary to save human lives, which will be intended for war zones,” the Vatican said in a statement. Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, the papal almoner, is the head of the Dicastery for the Service of Charity and will deliver the ambulances.

“In this time of Easter rebirth, the pope wanted to make a gesture of closeness in one of the most painful places where the war has been raging for three years, the martyred Ukraine,” read the Vatican statement. Since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the pope has donated three ambulances, a hospital van and ultrasound machines for hospitals targeted by military strikes, as well as generators, food, and medicine.

Alliance Fraying: U.S. Security Agencies Suspend European Cooperation

Some U.S. national security agencies have suspended cooperation with international partners in countering Russian sabotage and cyber operations, Reuters reported on April 7, citing undisclosed official sources. Under former President Biden, the National Security Council coordinated the effort of at least seven security agencies working with European partners to disrupt Russia’s escalating hybrid activities across Europe.

Since Trump took office on January 20, the National Security Council has reportedly ceased coordinating these efforts, and expected meetings with European partners have not taken place. The development has raised concerns in Europe that Washington might cut a peace deal unfavorable to its allies.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military announced it will move personnel and equipment away from a key transit hub for Ukrainian aid in southeastern Poland, redeploying them in other parts of the country. Officials said the work of providing military support for Kyiv via the airport at Jasionka near Rzeszów would be continued by Poland and other NATO countries, while still being “supported by a streamlined U.S. military footprint.”

Silent Infiltration: Cyberattacks Target Ukrainian Military Technology Developers

Ukraine cautioned about heightened cyberattacks directly targeting its military institutions on April 7, particularly the branches working with developing new technology for the military. The attacks were often carried out via infected Excel attachments disguised as official documents, according to the State Service for Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine.

The institution, citing findings by the Computer Emergency Response Team of Ukraine (CERT-UA), reported increasing attempts “against Ukrainian institutions involved in the development of innovations in the military sector since the beginning of February 2025.”

“The attacks are carried out by distributing emails with Excel documents. The file names and email subjects mention topical and sensitive issues—demining, administrative fines, UAV production, compensation for destroyed property, etc.,” the update stated. CERT-UA detailed that the malicious code aimed to “provide access to databases of Internet browsers” is embedded inside the cells, where they are then extracted to malignant parties via Telegram.

Russia’s Technological Bypass: Indian Component Found in Weapons Systems

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 7 that an Indian-produced component was identified in a Russian weapon system for the first time, while nearly all American-made parts have been phased out. “For the first time, a component made in India—a clock buffer from Aura Semiconductor—was found in a Russian weapon,” HUR said.

The discovery came as HUR documented nearly 200 newly identified parts across six types of Russian weaponry, including the CRP antenna from the Russian-modified Shahed drone, North Korea’s KN-24 ballistic missile, the onboard computer in the X-47 Kinzhal missile, and several reconnaissance and attack drones.

According to HUR, only two American chips remain in the latest CRP antenna design of the Geran-2 (Russia’s designation for the Iranian Shahed-136 drone), illustrating Russia’s shift toward components from countries not enforcing sanctions. In previous drone variants, antennas labeled in Chinese featured 13 out of 15 components made by Chinese firms, including key signal-processing chips from the Beijing Microelectronics Technology Institute.

Ukrainian Automation: New Combat Robot Approved for Battlefield Use

The Ukrainian-made D-21-12R ground robotic system has been approved for military use, the Defense Ministry announced on April 7. Equipped with a large-caliber machine gun, the robot is capable of conducting surveillance, patrolling, providing fire support to Ukrainian military units, and targeting Russian lightly armored vehicles.

The system has high cross-country mobility in off-road terrain, mud, and shallow water, and can be operated remotely from a protected shelter. Ukraine is increasing the production of unmanned ground systems and deploying robotic units as part of combat brigades on the front line. In December, the Ukrainian military claimed troops had successfully attacked Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast using only ground and first-person view drones instead of infantry for the first time.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Ukrainian soldiers hit and destroyed more than 77,000 Russian targets using drones of various types in March—a 10 percent increase compared to February. “By increasing the role of drones, we are saving the lives of our defenders,” Syrskyi stated, underscoring Ukraine’s increasing reliance on unmanned systems as a force multiplier on the battlefield.

Russian Technical Admissions: Captured Bradley Analysis Reveals Superior Western Technology

Russian military researchers have concluded that the U.S.-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle significantly outperforms its nearest Russian equivalent, the BMP-3, in key areas, according to a leaked report published on April 7. The document, titled “Results of Research Tests of the BMP ‘Bradley’ M2A2 ODS SA,” was compiled by the Russian Ministry of Defense’s 38th Research Institute of Armored Vehicles.

The analysis found that the Bradley provides extremely high levels of crew protection from Russian artillery, anti-tank weapons, and anti-tank landmines through its combined aluminum and steel “sandwich” construction. In terms of firepower, the Russian researchers acknowledged that the U.S. 25mm chain gun provided a rate of fire and armor penetration that was double that of the BMP-3’s externally mounted 30mm gun.

The report also drew attention to the Bradley’s operational advantages in respect of its optics, ergonomics, maintainability, and ease of access. In its conclusions, the report says there is a need to adopt “Western design solutions” when modernizing existing or designing future Russian equipment—a rare admission of technological inferiority that must be concerning for the Kremlin.

The Baltic Border Watch: Lithuania Enhances Surveillance of Russian Trains

Lithuanian border guards will begin using a helicopter to escort Russian trains transiting between Belarus and the Kaliningrad exclave, national broadcaster LRT reported on April 7. Lithuanian Interior Minister Vladislav Kondratovic said the move aims to tighten supervision over trains traveling to and from Kaliningrad Oblast, a Russian military stronghold bordering Lithuania and Poland.

The European Commission allocated 25 million euros ($27.4 million) under the Special Transit Scheme to support the effort. Lithuania’s State Border Guard Service used the funds to acquire a modern helicopter, special vehicles, and surveillance equipment. The new helicopter is equipped with video systems, cargo suspension tools, search and rescue capabilities, firefighting features, and onboard medical facilities.

In a related development, the EU rejected a joint funding request by Lithuania and Estonia to support the development of a cross-border “drone wall” aimed at enhancing surveillance and protection along their eastern frontiers, though Lithuanian officials indicated they would seek alternative funding sources for the project.

Economic Pressure Points: Oil Price Drop Threatens Russian Budget

The Kremlin on April 7 announced it is “closely monitoring” oil markets after the price of its key export grade, Urals crude, plunged towards the $50 mark. “We are very closely monitoring the situation, which is currently characterized as extremely turbulent, tense, and emotionally overloaded,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Interfax.

Peskov attributed the price decline to “the US decision to introduce tariffs for most countries in the world.” Urals crude fell to $52.76 per barrel at the Baltic port of Primorsk on Friday, according to Argus Media data cited by Bloomberg. This is well below the $70 per barrel benchmark used for Russia’s 2025 budget planning.

With oil and gas revenues accounting for nearly 30% of budget proceeds in January-February, a price collapse could destabilize Russia’s federal budget, as military expenditures for the Ukraine conflict have driven government spending sharply upward in early 2025. If prices fall below the $50 mark, it would push Russia’s key oil export to its weakest level in nearly two years.

Ukrainian Industry Impact: Ferrexpo Reports Production Decline Over VAT Dispute

Ferrexpo, the London-listed iron ore producer with significant operations in Ukraine, reported a 26% year-on-year decline in pellet production during the first quarter, attributing the drop to the suspension of value-added tax (VAT) refunds by Ukrainian authorities.

The company disclosed that it had scaled back operations after the VAT refund suspension, which amounted to approximately $12.5 million for January alone. Total pellet production decreased to 1.35 million tonnes, down from 1.81 million tonnes in the same period last year, while premium pellet output fell 36% to 1.11 million tonnes.

According to Ferrexpo, the company reduced its operations from two pellet lines to one after the suspension of VAT refunds. Interim Executive Chair Lucio Genovese stated, “The suspension of the VAT refund has resulted in lowering the available liquidity to fund the operations. This has forced us to immediately downscale our operations to one pellet line and to implement significant cost cutting measures.”

Diplomatic Shuffle: Zelensky Appoints New Ambassadors Amid Corruption Fallout

President Zelensky appointed new Ukrainian ambassadors to seven countries on April 7, including former Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin, who resigned in October 2024 amid a major corruption scandal involving hundreds of prosecutors who obtained disability benefits. Despite promises to bring Kostin to “political responsibility,” Zelensky appointed him ambassador to the Netherlands and Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

The various ambassadors have been appointed to represent Ukraine in Argentina, China, Finland, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, the Netherlands, and Norway. Andriy Melnyk was formally appointed as the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations and dismissed from his role as ambassador to Brazil.

Looking Ahead: Strategic Positioning Amid Elusive Peace

As April 7 draws to a close, the day’s events reveal the stark contradictions in this conflict. While Trump claims peace talks are “getting sort of close” and expresses frustration with Russian bombing, the Kremlin resurrects narratives denying Ukraine’s legitimacy as a negotiating partner. The unusual pause in long-range strikes raises questions about Russian intentions—is it a gesture of goodwill, a tactical regrouping, or preparation for a larger assault?

International support for Ukraine continues with Norway’s ammunition pledge and the Pope’s ambulance donation, yet signs of Western alliance fraying appear with the reported suspension of U.S.-European security cooperation. Meanwhile, Ukraine confirms its forces are operating inside Russia, creating a potential bargaining chip while demonstrating its ability to bring the war to Russian territory.

The technological race intensifies with Ukraine’s new combat robots and Russia’s struggle to circumvent sanctions, resorting to Indian and Chinese components while reluctantly acknowledging the superiority of Western equipment captured on the battlefield. As both sides position themselves for the next phase of this grinding conflict, the diplomatic dance continues, but with Russian forces advancing in multiple sectors and civilian casualties mounting daily, peace remains a distant prospect.

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