Diplomacy By Fire: Ceasefire Proposals Meet Battlefield Reality

As Ukraine and Western Leaders Demand a 30-Day Unconditional Ceasefire, Kremlin Rejects the Proposal While Russian Attacks Continue

Summary of the Day – May 10, 2025

The battle for peace intensified across diplomatic and military fronts as Ukraine, joined by leaders of France, Germany, Poland, and the UK, proposed a 30-day unconditional ceasefire to begin May 12, with full backing from U.S. President Trump. The Kremlin swiftly rejected the offer, with Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov claiming it would be to Kyiv’s “advantage” while suggesting Russia needs to “think about” the proposal. Meanwhile, Iran reportedly prepared to deliver Fath-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers to Russia, and the U.S. embassy in Kyiv warned of a potentially significant Russian air strike—possibly involving Oreshnik missiles—as airspace over the Kapustin Yar missile launch site was scheduled to close. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast while Russian troops pushed forward near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.

an apartment building at night with smoke coming out of the window
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and President Volodymyr Zelensky visit St. Sophia Cathedral in Kyiv after a meeting of the so-called “coalition of the willing”. (Stefan Rousseau/WPA Pool/Getty Images)

Peace Summit in Kyiv: European Leaders Rally Behind 30-Day Ceasefire Proposal

European leaders converged on Kyiv on May 10 to show unified support for Ukraine amid growing international pressure for Russia to agree to a ceasefire. French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met with President Volodymyr Zelensky to demand Russia accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting May 12.

Ukraine, European allies demand Russia agree to 30-day ceasefire starting May 12
(From L) Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer, First Lady Olena Zelenska, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, and Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the Independence Square (Maidan Nezalezhnosti) in Kyiv, ahead of a gathering of European leaders in the Ukranian capital. (Photo: President’s Office)

“We agreed that a full and unconditional ceasefire must begin on Monday, May 12, for at least 30 days. We jointly demand this from Russia, and we know we are supported in this by the United States,” Zelensky said. “The ceasefire must be comprehensive — in the air, at sea, and on land. Monitoring the ceasefire is entirely feasible in coordination with the United States.”

The leaders held a joint phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump that Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha described as “productive,” affirming that “all allies are ready for a complete unconditional ceasefire on land, in the air, and at sea for at least 30 days, starting as early as Monday.”

Following the summit, the European Union released an official statement on May 10 endorsing the unconditional 30-day ceasefire proposal. The EU stated that the ceasefire would “serve as a vital step toward reducing civilian suffering and allow space for meaningful talks for genuine peace.”

“As in the past, it is now for Russia to show its willingness to achieve peace,” the EU’s statement read. “The EU remains steadfast in its commitment to a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine, grounded in the principles of the UN Charter and international law and welcomes all efforts towards achieving such peace.”

Kremlin’s Hard Line: Russia Rejects Ceasefire Proposal

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected the 30-day ceasefire proposal on May 10, claiming it would be to Kyiv’s “advantage.” In an interview with ABC News, Peskov insisted that Putin supported the idea of a ceasefire but had “questions” about how it would account for recent and possible future Russian advances, Ukrainian mobilization, and Western military assistance.

“Russia is quite resistant to any kinds of pressure,” Peskov told CNN correspondent Frederik Pleitgen, while claiming Moscow remained “open for dialogue… open for attempts to have a settlement in Ukraine.”

Peskov also noted that Moscow appreciates “efforts of mediation,” but added that it is “quite useless to pressure” Russia. He reiterated Putin’s previous demands for the West to stop all military aid to Ukraine and force Ukraine to stop mobilizing and training servicemembers as a condition of a ceasefire.

Economic Leverage: Allies Threaten New Sanctions if Russia Refuses Ceasefire

Ukraine and its allies put economic pressure on the Kremlin as part of their ceasefire push. Following the Kyiv summit, the five leaders released a joint statement threatening additional sanctions against Russia’s banking and energy sectors if Moscow refuses the ceasefire proposal.

“[The nations] agreed that if Russia refuses a full and unconditional ceasefire, stronger sanctions should be applied to its banking and energy sectors, targeting fossil fuels, oil, and the shadow fleet,” the statement read. “They agreed to pass a strong 17th EU sanctions package and to coordinate it with sanctions imposed by the United Kingdom and Norway, as well as by the United States.”

British Prime Minister Starmer also confirmed that Ukraine’s European allies would not ease any sanctions against Russia until a result had been achieved.

U.S. Green Light: Germany to Transfer Critical Patriot Missiles to Ukraine

As Ukraine faces increasing Russian missile attacks on civilian infrastructure, the United States has approved Germany’s transfer of 125 long-range artillery rockets and 100 Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine, the New York Times reported on May 10.

Deputy Head of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Yehor Chernev, told the paper that Ukraine is “running low” on long-range missiles, artillery, and ballistic missile defense systems. The Patriots are particularly critical as they are uniquely capable of intercepting Russian ballistic missiles.

A Western intelligence official noted that the Ukrainian military has improved its ability to “ration” Patriot air defense missiles by using cheaper interceptors to target smaller threats. Patriot systems remain essential to Ukraine’s air defense umbrella, as Soviet-era and other Western-provided systems cannot intercept Russian ballistic missiles.

Iranian Escalation: Short-Range Ballistic Missile Launchers En Route to Russia

In a concerning development for Ukraine’s defense, Reuters reported on May 10 that Iran is preparing to provide Russia with Fath-360 short-range ballistic missile launchers. Two Western security officials and a regional official told the news agency that the delivery was “imminent.”

The Fath-360 has a range of 120 kilometers, enabling Russian forces to strike Ukrainian front-line positions, military sites, and population centers near the border. The launchers would complement the short-range ballistic missiles that Iran reportedly provided to Russia in Fall 2024.

According to a Ukrainian military source, Iran provided over 200 Fath-360 ballistic missiles to Russia last year. U.S. European Command Commander General Christopher Cavoli stated in April that Iran has provided over 400 short-range ballistic missiles and “hundreds of thousands” of artillery shells to Russia.

The Proxy War Expands: Trump Announces India-Pakistan Ceasefire

As tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain high, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that India and Pakistan have agreed to “a full and immediate ceasefire,” posting on Truth Social on May 10: “Congratulations to both countries on using common Sense and great intelligence. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that he and Vice President JD Vance had been in contact with both sides over the past 48 hours to halt the fighting between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

India confirmed that a ceasefire had been agreed upon, with the Foreign Ministry spokesperson briefly saying during a press conference on May 10, “It was agreed between them that both sides would stop all fighting and military action on land and in the air and sea with effect from 17:00 Indian standard time today.”

Battlefield Advances: Ukrainian Forces Push Forward in Kursk While Russians Gain Ground Elsewhere

Ukrainian forces made advances in Kursk Oblast, with geolocated footage published on May 10 showing Ukrainian troops advancing south of Tetkino, southwest of Glushkovo. Elements of the Russian 217th Airborne Regiment are reportedly operating in the area.

Meanwhile, Russian forces made confirmed advances in several sectors. In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces captured parts of northern Kotlyne and advanced along Tsentralna Street in southeastern Novoserhiivka. Russian troops attacked east of Pokrovsk near Myrne, Promin, and Myrolyubivka; southeast of Pokrovsk near Dachenske, Hrodivka, Lysivka, and Novotoretske; and southwest of Pokrovsk near Zvirove, Kotlyne, and Udachne.

Russian forces also advanced in the Kurakhove direction, with geolocated footage showing Russian troops advancing in the eastern outskirts of Oleksiivka and along the H-15 Kurakhove-Zaporizhzhia City highway in the fields south of Bahatyr.

Zelensky Rejects Demilitarized Zone Concept

Speaking at a press conference in Kyiv on May 10, President Volodymyr Zelensky rebuffed the idea of establishing a demilitarized zone in the war with Russia, saying the concept is “dead” and emphasizing the importance of first securing a ceasefire.

The idea of a demilitarized zone was first floated by United States special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, who described the proposal as a buffer zone with both sides pulling back 15 kilometers, creating a 30-kilometer area monitored by observers from third countries.

“The question of the demilitarized zone, the disengagement of troops, I heard about it in the media and not only in the media, from many different people, from many intelligence agencies. Officially, Ukraine did not receive anything like that. But… everyone is looking for opportunities to conduct experiments on us,” Zelensky said.

The president explained the logistical challenges such a zone would present: “If… we agree to a buffer zone and withdraw 15 kilometers from cities like Kherson, Kharkiv, and Sumy, everyone will have what seems to be peace, but the war will continue in them, because artillery will fly over them. Therefore, it is premature to talk about this today and the idea is currently dead.”

Anti-Corruption Fight: National Guard Officials Suspended Amid Embezzlement Probe

Six senior officials from the logistics division of Ukraine’s National Guard have been suspended from their posts, the Interior Ministry announced on May 10, as authorities launched an internal investigation into suspected corruption.

According to Ukrainian media outlet ZN.UA, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) is conducting a probe into suspected embezzlement, money laundering, and bribery. Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of the National Guard, is reportedly suspected of receiving a bribe of up to Hr 190 million ($4.6 million) in collusion with other officials.

The director and deputy director of the logistics department are also suspected of embezzling Hr 199 million ($4.8 million) from National Guard funds by purchasing FV-series tracked armored personnel carriers at inflated prices.

“Full cooperation is being provided to the investigation,” the Interior Ministry wrote in its statement.

Russia to Close Airspace Over Missile Launch Site

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported on May 10 that the Russian government plans to close the airspace over Volgograd and Saratov oblasts near the Kapustin Yar missile launch site in Astrakhan Oblast from May 12 to 13.

Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi noted that a similar flight ban was in place ahead of Russia’s first Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on Ukraine. The outlet cited a notice about the airspace closure published on the U.S. Defense Department’s NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) website.

Russian milbloggers suggested the closure is typical for combat and test launches of ballistic missiles and claimed that it might indicate Russia is preparing an Oreshnik strike on Kyiv. The U.S. embassy in Kyiv issued a warning on May 9 about a potentially significant Russian air strike in the coming days.

U.S. State Department: Ceasefire Needed to Progress Negotiations

Russia and Ukraine must come to a ceasefire agreement in order for the U.S. to “move forward” in negotiating an end to the full-scale war, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce said on May 10.

“We’ll judge Russia by actions, not words,” Bruce wrote on X. “We’ve struck a deal with Ukraine for critical minerals and energy to fund their rebuilding. Now we need concrete proposals from both sides to end the conflict.”

In comments aired on NewsNation, Bruce indicated that further U.S. participation in peace negotiations was contingent on a ceasefire agreement. “(W)e’ve said repeatedly that in order for us to go forward regarding the conflict, there has to be a ceasefire,” she said.

Diplomatic Concerns: Trump’s Envoy Used Kremlin Translators With Putin

U.S. President Donald Trump’s Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, relied on translators from the Kremlin in his meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, NBC News reported on May 10, citing a U.S. official and two Western officials with knowledge of the talks.

Witkoff, who has emerged as Trump’s de facto personal envoy to Putin, has met with the Russian president several times in recent months. His most recent visit took place in Moscow on April 26.

Officials told NBC News that Witkoff—a real estate tycoon who does not speak Russian—did not employ his own interpreter during these meetings. The decision represented a breach of typical protocols and rendered him dependent on Kremlin-provided translators.

“If they speak to each other in Russian, he doesn’t know what they are saying,” one Western official said. Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, called Witkoff’s refusal to use his own interpreter “a very bad idea.”

In a statement provided to NBC News, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said that Witkoff “abides by all security protocols in coordination with the State Department.”

Looking Ahead: The Critical Days to Come

As the diplomatic standoff intensifies, the coming days will prove critical for determining whether Russia and Ukraine can move toward a meaningful ceasefire. The European proposal for a 30-day truce beginning May 12 faces resistance from Moscow, while the scheduled closure of Russian airspace over the Kapustin Yar missile launch complex from May 12 to 13 has raised alarms about potential new strikes against Ukraine.

The promised transfer of additional Patriot missiles from Germany may strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses but is unlikely to arrive in time to counter immediate threats. Meanwhile, with Iran reportedly preparing to deliver additional missile launchers to Russia, the regional dimensions of the conflict continue to expand, raising the stakes for any future peace negotiations.

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