Summary of the Day:
European nations significantly boosted Ukraine’s military support during Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting. The UK leads with a £150 million package including drones, tanks, and air defense systems, plus a planned £4.5 billion in aid for 2025. Germany will provide 100 IRIS-T missiles and 6,000 AI-equipped drones, while other European allies also pledged substantial support.
Russia’s military losses escalated dramatically in 2024, with over 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles destroyed – nearly double the 3,000 lost in 2023. This has forced a tactical shift to infantry-led assaults, with Russian forces reportedly advancing near Borova and Siversk. Russian forces are also actively recruiting for the “BARS-Bryansk” volunteer territorial defense detachment to address personnel needs.
Ukrainian forces have launched precision drone strikes against key Russian infrastructure, targeting radar complexes in Moscow Oblast, a water treatment facility near a major steel plant in Lipetsk City, and an oil pumping station in Tver Oblast. Meanwhile, Moldova has terminated its cultural agreement with Russia following Russian drone violations of its airspace, including two drone explosions near Ceadir-Lunga.
Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warns that Russia is building military capabilities not just for its war in Ukraine, but for a potential future conflict with NATO. The report indicates that Russia continues to circumvent Western sanctions through China, which helps procure up to 80% of restricted Western components for Russian drone production, raising significant concerns about regional security and global stability.
Picture of the Day:
The aftermath of Russian drone attacks on Odesa Oblast, Ukraine. (State Emergency Service / Telegram).
Beyond Ukraine – The March Towards World War
Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service warns that Russia is building military capabilities not just for its war in Ukraine, but for a potential future conflict with NATO. They warn that if Russia achieves favorable terms in Ukraine, it could increase its military presence along NATO borders beyond pre-2022 levels. Russia is heavily investing in drone technology, committing €1 million annually until 2030 to establish 48 research centers and integrate drone education into 75% of Russian schools. Notably, Russia continues to circumvent Western sanctions through China, which helps procure up to 80% of restricted Western components for Russian drone production. This military buildup and sanctions evasion pose significant risks to global stability and NATO security.
Moldova announced the closure of Russian cultural centers, specifically targeting Rossotrudnichestvo, a Russian cultural agency with over 80 global branches that Moldova and Ukraine claim promotes Russian propaganda, following Russian drone violations of Moldovan airspace which included two drone incidents during a mass overnight attack on Ukraine – one exploding between Ceadir-Lunga and Valea Perjei, and another crashing near Chumai village in Taraclia district. This action follows Azerbaijan’s similar closure of its Rossotrudnichestvo branch on February 6 citing national security concerns, reflecting growing regional tensions and resistance to Russian influence in Eastern Europe. Moldovan President Maia Sandu acknowledged the country’s inability to defend against these incursions, leading to the closure of the Russian Cultural Center in Chisinau and a formal protest to Russia’s ambassador, with the incident following a pattern of Russian drones and missiles violating Moldovan airspace since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, raising concerns about the conflict’s spread beyond Ukraine’s borders and threatening regional stability.
Donald Trump expressed support for Russia’s readmission to the G7, calling its 2014 expulsion following the invasion of eastern Ukraine and annexation of Crimea “a mistake.” This statement followed Trump’s 90-minute call with Vladimir Putin, where he reportedly accepted an invitation to Moscow, and a subsequent call with Volodymyr Zelensky. While Trump assured reporters that Ukraine would be included in peace negotiations, his stance on Russia’s G7 membership contrasts sharply with the group’s recent commitment to provide Ukraine $50 billion in loans backed by frozen Russian assets. This development could significantly impact international unity regarding Russia’s aggression and Ukraine’s security.
The Path to Peace
On February 12, former U.S. President Donald Trump held separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, announcing “great talks” and suggesting a “good possibility” of ending the war soon. While Zelensky described his conversation with Trump as “good,” he expressed mild displeasure that Trump spoke with Putin before him and emphasized the importance of maintaining U.S. support and advocating for a “Ukraine first” approach. According to Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak, both Trump and Zelensky agreed to work toward ending the war. Trump has assigned a negotiation team led by Secretary of State Rubio, CIA Director Ratcliffe, and National Security Advisor Waltz.
Following the calls, Trump announced plans to meet Putin in Saudi Arabia, with Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirming that preparations for peace talks have begun. The Kremlin views the United States as its primary negotiating partner and is forming its own negotiation team, considering lessons from the failed Minsk agreements of 2014-2015.
While China has proposed arranging a Trump-Putin summit and might be included in negotiations, the White House has dismissed this suggestion as “not viable” and European participation is not currently being considered. NATO describes Beijing as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war effort through its provision of dual-use goods to Moscow’s defense industry.
U.S. Special Envoy Keith Kellogg will tour Europe from February 13-22, visiting Germany, Belgium, and Ukraine, including attendance at the Munich Security Conference. Kellogg suggested that a peace deal could acknowledge Ukraine’s territorial losses without formally recognizing them, comparing it to the 1940 Welles Declaration regarding Soviet occupation of Baltic states. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that acknowledging Ukraine’s inability to restore its pre-2014 borders is not a concession to Russia but rather a recognition of current realities, and expressed doubt about Ukraine’s NATO membership prospects despite NATO’s earlier pledge that Ukraine’s path to membership is “irreversible.”
European officials have expressed concern over being excluded from U.S.-Russia peace talks, with EU diplomat Kaja Kallas stressing Europe’s need for a central role while reaffirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Trump suggested European nations would bear the costs of Ukraine’s reconstruction and peacekeeping duties, with Bloomberg Economics estimating European powers could face $3.1 trillion in additional military and security costs over the next decade. Meanwhile, European markets rallied amid optimism following the calls, with the STOXX 600 reaching record highs and the euro, Swiss franc, and British pound all gaining 0.3% against the dollar. Oil prices fell for a second day on peace prospects, though ING currency expert Chris Turner suggested a peace settlement could significantly benefit Europe by reducing energy costs and enabling major reconstruction programs. A Ukrainian official denied reports that Ukraine would participate in U.S.-Russia talks in Munich, with Presidential advisor Dmytro Lytvyn stating Ukraine’s position remains firm: discussions must first be held with America, include European partners, and maintain a unified position before any engagement with Russia.
Situation On The Land, Sea, and Air in Ukraine
Russian forces have shifted tactics due to equipment losses, now favoring infantry-led attacks over armored assaults along the frontline, particularly in Donetsk Oblast. According to Ukrainian Major Viktor Trehubov, this change is primarily due to effective Ukrainian drone strikes rather than weather conditions. The Russians are also experiencing ammunition supply issues in some areas, reportedly due to Ukrainian strikes on their ammunition depots.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation – Initiative Russia
Fighting persisted in Ukraine’s Kursk Oblast with clashes reported west of Sudzha near Sverdlikovo and southeast near Cherkasskaya Konopelka. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counterattack near Kurilovka, south of Sudzha.
In a significant drone attack, multiple explosions were reported in Russia’s Lipetsk region, with at least 12 blasts occurring in the industrial area of Lipetsk city, primarily targeting the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Complex (NLMK), Russia’s largest steel manufacturer which produces 20% of Russia’s steel output and is owned by Russian billionaire Vladimir Lisin. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims it intercepted 83 Ukrainian drones across several regions, including Bryansk, Kursk, Lipetsk, Tver, Belgorod, Kaluga, Smolensk, and Voronezh Oblasts, with 12 intercepted in Lipetsk.
Kharkiv Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces continued attacks north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi, while also claiming a small advance of 70 meters on the eastern outskirts of Vovchansk, though this claim remains unconfirmed.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Kupyansk
Russian forces launched attacks around Kupyansk targeting Kindrashivka to the north, Holubivka to the northeast, Petropavlivka to the east, and Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, and Novoosynove to the southeast. Russian sources claimed a 600-meter advance near Kindrashivka, though this remains unverified.
Borova
Russian forces launched attacks around Borova, targeting Kolisnykivka, Zahryzove, and Lozova to the northeast; Kopanky to the east; and Hrekivka and Novomykhailivka to the southeast. Ukrainian officials confirmed a Russian advance near Pershotravneve, while Russian sources claimed additional gains west of Makiivka, though these remain unverified.
Lyman
Russian forces continued attacks northeast of Lyman targeting Yampolivka, Novolyubivka, and Kolodyazi. Russian sources claimed advances near Novolyubivka, though these gains remain unconfirmed.
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Siversk
Russian forces attacked near Siversk targeting Bilohorivka to the northeast and Verkhnokamyanske to the east. Ukrainian military officials confirmed Russian advances southeast of Fedorivka, south of Siversk.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces launched attacks near Chasiv Yar and its northern neighbor Vasyukivka but failed to gain ground. Russian drone units were spotted operating near Predtechyne, just south of Chasiv Yar.
Toretsk
Russian forces attacked Toretsk and nearby settlements of Shcherbynivka and Sukha Balka but made no confirmed advances. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances near several towns including Petrivka, Leonidivka, and Valentynivka, these claims remain unverified.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces launched multiple attacks around Pokrovsk targeting numerous settlements including Zelene Pole, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, Yelyzavetivka, Malynivka, and Promin. Fighting was particularly intense south and southwest of Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian mechanized assault. While Russian sources claimed to have captured Vodyane Druhe and made advances near several other settlements including Berezivka and Baranivka, these claims remain unconfirmed.
Andriivka
Russian forces attacked multiple settlements near Kurakhove but failed to advance. The attacks targeted Andriivka and Shevchenko to the northeast; Dachne Ulakly, Kostiantynopil, Oleksiivka, Rozlyv, and Bahatyr to the west; and Zelenivka to the southwest. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances near several of these areas, particularly a 1.5-kilometer push near Zelenivka, these claims remain unverified.
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces launched attacks near Velyka Novosilka targeting Novyi Komar and Novoocheretuvate to the north, Burlatske to the northwest, and Vremivka to the west. While Russian military bloggers claimed advances in these areas, particularly near Novyi Komar and Vremivka, these gains remain unconfirmed.
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces launched ground attacks near Robotyne targeting the settlements of Shcherbaky, Kamyanske, and Mala Tokmachka, but failed to make confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counterattack near Kamyanske, while Russian sources claimed an unverified 300-meter advance toward Orikhiv.
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
No ground combat was reported by either Russian or Ukrainian forces along the Dnipro front.
Ukraine News
Russia launched 140 Shahed and decoy drones against Ukraine from multiple launch sites in Russia. Ukrainian forces shot down 85 drones across ten regions and disrupted 52 others through electronic warfare. The attacks damaged infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast and struck port facilities and a school in Odesa Oblast.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky imposed indefinite sanctions on several prominent figures, including former president Petro Poroshenko, oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, pro-Russian ex-lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk, billionaire Konstantin Zhevago, and former PrivatBank co-owner Hennadiy Boholyubov, with measures approved by the National Security and Defense Council including asset freezes, trade bans, and various financial restrictions within Ukraine. Kolomoisky, who is currently in pre-trial detention, faces fraud charges involving $360 million from PrivatBank, while Boholyubov is under investigation for allegedly fleeing Ukraine with forged documents, Zhevago is suspected of bank embezzlement, and Medvedchuk, previously charged with treason, is now in Russia after a prisoner exchange. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) justified the measures citing threats to national security and ongoing criminal investigations, while Poroshenko, who remains in Ukraine and was recently blocked from attending the Munich Security Conference, faces daily interrogations and has called the sanctions “unconstitutional,” with his party claiming political persecution.
The European Business Association has called on Ukraine to declassify its mineral deposit data, arguing that current secrecy around resources like gold, lithium, titanium, and platinum is hampering international investment. The request comes as former U.S. President Trump claims Ukraine agreed to provide access to rare earth minerals worth approximately $500 billion in exchange for military aid. Ukraine, which possesses 20 critical minerals including titanium for aerospace and lithium for electric vehicle batteries, has indicated openness to resource extraction partnerships in exchange for security guarantees, though specific details remain unclear.
Agricultural trade between Ukraine and the EU hit a record $17 billion in 2024, up 3% from 2022. Spain, Poland, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Romania, France, and Belgium accounted for 80% of Ukraine’s agrifood trade. Despite the ongoing war with Russia, Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU exceeded imports by $9 billion, helped by the EU’s removal of tariff quotas and improved export corridors. Ukraine primarily exports cereals, vegetable and animal oils, and ferrous metals to the EU, with agricultural exports remaining stable even as other sectors declined due to the war.
Innocent Victims Of War
The casualty count of civilians in the past 24 hours: (Russian War Crimes)
DEATHS: 1 INJURIES: 20
Russian forces attacked the Kherson Oblast region, resulting in one death and 10 injuries. The strikes damaged residential areas, including two high-rise buildings and 12 private homes, along with local social infrastructure.
Russian forces struck 13 communities in Sumy Oblast, leaving five people injured. The attacks damaged residential buildings, a school, and agricultural structures.
Russian forces attacked three settlements in Donetsk Oblast – Katerynivka, Komar, and Nikiforivka – wounding four residents.
A Russian drone attack in Odesa Oblast injured one woman when shrapnel struck her car. She was hospitalized with moderate injuries.
Russian attacks struck Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. In Zaporizhzhia, 20 residential buildings were damaged, but no casualties were reported. In Dnipropetrovsk, the strikes damaged 10 homes, outbuildings, power lines, and a gas pipeline, with no injuries.
Ukraine’s Allies
European nations announced increased military support for Ukraine during the February 12 Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, with the UK leading through a £150 million package including drones, tanks, and air defense systems, plus a planned £4.5 billion in aid for 2025, while Germany will provide 100 IRIS-T missiles and 6,000 AI-equipped drones, Norway joined the Ukrainian Drone Coalition and will help establish Ukraine’s “Northern Brigade,” the Netherlands and Latvia are sending armored vehicles, and Estonia pledged 0.25% of its GDP for Ukraine’s military aid in 2025. Munich-based defense technology firm Helsing will supply Ukraine with 6,000 AI-powered HX-2 attack drones that have a 100 km range, can operate in swarms under single-operator control, and feature electronic warfare resistance through onboard AI, following their November 2024 commitment of 4,000 HF-1 drones, building on their defense technology cooperation agreement with Ukraine signed in February 2024.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer firmly backed Ukraine’s path to NATO membership on February 13, contrasting with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s recent statement that NATO membership and restoration of Ukraine’s 2014 borders were unrealistic goals. Despite U.S. position shifts, Starmer maintained alignment with NATO’s July 2024 affirmation of Ukraine’s “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration.” EU diplomat Kaja Kallas emphasized Ukraine’s territorial integrity, while Estonian politician Marko Mihkelson warned this could be “a dark day for Europe,” highlighting growing tensions between U.S. and European positions on Ukraine’s future.
The EU cannot fully replace USAID funding following the U.S. agency’s three-month freeze on international development and reported plans to lay off most of its global workforce, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated. While USAID has provided $37.6 billion in total aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, including support for school reconstruction, bomb shelters, and energy repairs, the EU lacks sufficient funds to fill the gap. However, Kallas views this as an opportunity to make European aid more visible to recipients. The White House has placed USAID under State Department control, citing concerns over waste and fraud despite foreign aid comprising just 1% of the federal budget.
Ukraine Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced that America will continue providing security assistance to Ukraine, with NATO taking a larger role in security assistance and military training. Speaking alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels, Umerov made these remarks before the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting. While Umerov met with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, reports suggest no new U.S. assistance commitments were made, as Trump has indicated future aid could be tied to trade agreements. The upcoming Munich Security Conference will further address Ukraine’s security assistance needs.
Life in Russian Occupied Ukraine
Russian forces disrupted a planned rotation of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions along the IAEA travel route, while Russia claimed Ukraine fired on the IAEA convoy. IAEA Director Grossi confirmed the rotation was canceled due to military activity in the area.
Russian War Losses (Today/Total)
Russia’s military losses escalated significantly in 2024, with over 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles destroyed – nearly double the 3,000 lost in 2023. The losses include 1,400 main battle tanks and 3,700 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers. While Russia can likely sustain these losses until 2026-2027 using Soviet-era equipment, they appear to be adjusting tactics to reduce future losses.
Troops +1250
854280 |
Tanks +17
10040 |
Artillery +58
23034 |
Arm. Veh. +23
20894 |
Aircraft 
370 |
Heli
331 |
Ships
28 |
Russia Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Russian authorities are ramping up recruitment for the “BARS-Bryansk” volunteer defense unit, with Governor Alexander Bogomaz reporting to President Putin that the force has 1,800 members and adds about 100 new recruits weekly. The regional government offers substantial financial incentives, including 300,000 rubles upon joining and 600,000 more for signing a military contract, plus benefits and equipment. This unit, along with similar ones in Kursk and Belgorod, was established following a Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024, with the goal of resettling Russian civilians in border areas and preventing future incursions.
Russia’s military production in 2024 – 1,500 tanks and 2,800 armored vehicles – nearly matched its losses, but challenges loom ahead. Russia faces difficulties in equipping both its existing forces and planned new divisions due to deteriorating Soviet-era stockpiles and spare parts shortages. While President Zelensky reports Russia is still forming new divisions, their ability to maintain adequate equipment levels long-term remains uncertain without increased production capacity.
Source Material
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com
Kyiv Post – kyivpost.com