Summary of the day: Hungary approved Sweden’s NATO accession, marking Sweden’s forthcoming integration into the alliance, while Russian military efforts advanced with President Putin’s formal re-establishment of the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts, part of a broader strategy to optimize military command structures and prepare for potential conflicts. These efforts parallel the international community’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, as evidenced by a significant meeting in Paris led by EU leaders to increase Ukraine’s ammunition supplies and Germany’s announcement of a new military aid package. On the ground, Russian forces achieved tactical gains near Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka.
Situation On The Ground And Air
Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that Ukrainian strikes have limited Russia’s use of Kalibr cruise missile carriers in the western Black Sea, noting Russia maintains about 10 combat-ready carriers, with only one stationed in Sevastopol and the remainder in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai. The single carrier in Sevastopol serves to protect the bay from Ukrainian air attacks. Additionally, Pletenchuk mentioned that Russian forces have not conducted submarine-launched missile strikes for nearly three months, with only four Kalibr missiles launched in mid-February 2024.
Luhansk Front – Initiative Russia
Donetsk Front – Initiative Russia
Zaporizhia Front – Initiative Russia
Kherson (Dnipro River) Front – Initiative Russia
Russian forces have advanced south of Kreminna and east of Bilohorivka along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, indicating progress in this strategically significant area. Meanwhile, in Kharkiv Oblast’s Kupyansk, Russian troops are concentrating their forces, targeting the crucial logistics hub, prompting defensive measures by Ukrainian forces. The situation in both sectors is challenging, with intense engagements reported and Russia deploying substantial resources, including reserves and convicts. Additionally, Russia is bolstering border defenses to prevent cross-border raids, as seen in the intensified offensive efforts across Ukraine’s front lines following the capture of Avdiivka. The ISW warns of potential larger-scale replication of successful tactics if Western military assistance delays persist.
Russian forces achieved slight advancements west of Bakhmut, particularly northeast of Ivanivske, amidst ongoing positional battles in the region. Russian military bloggers reported progress towards Ivanivske’s center from the east and continued clashes on its northern outskirts, with the Russian forces displacing Ukrainian units in a nearby forest area. Additionally, positional fighting persisted southwest and south of Bakhmut, near Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Pivdenne, indicating sustained conflict zones around the city.
Ukrainian forces have retreated from Lastochkyne and Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, repositioning to defend nearby settlements against Russian advances. As reported by spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovii, this strategic withdrawal aims to hinder Russian progress in the western direction. Russian troops have reportedly seized control of Sieverne and Tonenke, although no visual proof of these gains is available. The Institute for the Study of War has cautioned that delayed Western military aid could enable Russia to replicate its Avdiivka strategy elsewhere. On the ground, Russian forces are reallocating troops from Lyman to Avdiivka, exploiting Donetsk City’s logistical proximity to amass a significant presence, potentially altering the frontline dynamics.
Positional battles persisted west and southwest of Donetsk City, specifically near Krasnohorivka, Heorhiivka, Pobieda, and Novomykhailivka, without any confirmed shifts in the frontline. Russian military units were actively engaged in these areas. Despite ongoing clashes, the frontlines in these sectors remained unchanged.
Positional engagements in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts involved areas near Zolota Nyva, Hulyaipole, and Marfopil but did not lead to any changes on the battlefield.
Positional engagements near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast did not lead to any changes on the frontline. A Russian military blogger suggested that fighting has concentrated in the Robotyne area, where Russian forces face challenges due to insufficient artillery and electronic warfare support.
Positional battles persisted in the east bank of Kherson Oblast, especially around Krynky. Following Ukraine’s downing of a Russian A-50 radar aircraft on February 23, Russian forces have increased their reliance on reconnaissance drones in southern Ukraine to offset their diminished reconnaissance capabilities. Additionally, Russian forces are now operating their tactical aviation further from the frontline over the Black Sea.
Human Costs Of War
In the past 24 hours, Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine caused five deaths and injuring ten others:
- Russian forces launched a deadly attack in Sumy Oblast’s Yunakivka village, killing a couple with guided aerial bombs. The assault destroyed one house and damaged five others.
- Throughout the day, Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast faced repeated attacks, resulting in the death of a 57-year-old truck driver when a Russian drone targeted his vehicle with explosives.
- Dnipro, the regional center of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, was hit by Russian forces, injuring four individuals. Among the injured were two men (aged 41 and 49) and two women (aged 20 and 60), who were hospitalized, while the attack caused damage to 10 homes and several vehicles.
- Russian attacks in Kherson Oblast resulted in two fatalities and one injury. The village of Tiahynka was targeted, claiming the lives of a 44-year-old man and a 62-year-old woman.
- Five individuals sustained injuries across various locations in Donetsk Oblast including Kostiantynivka, Kurakhove, Zakitne, Maksymilianivka, and Chasiv Yar.
A house damaged by a Russian attack in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that 880 Russian forces casualties were recorded in the previous day alone.
Ukraine News
On the night of February 25 to 26, Russian forces conducted a combined drone and missile attack on Ukraine, launching an Iskander-M missile from Crimea, two S-300 missiles from Belgorod, three Kh-59 cruise missiles and a Kh-31P missile from Zaporizhia, and 14 Shahed drones from Kursk. Ukrainian defenses intercepted all three Kh-59 cruise missiles and nine Shahed drones. At least one S-300 missile hit an agricultural facility in Pisochyn, Kharkiv Oblast, with Russian claims suggesting the strikes aimed at Ukrainian military targets deep behind the front lines for the third consecutive night.
President Zelensky introduced the “Made in Ukraine” economic platform during a forum in Kyiv attended by 400 entrepreneurs and officials. The initiative aims to foster ongoing dialogue between the government and businesses, with Zelensky stressing the need for Ukrainian goods, services, consumption, and exports to thrive amidst the ongoing conflict. Zelensky highlighted the platform’s role in facilitating direct engagement between the state and entrepreneurs, emphasizing a moral contract where those adhering to clear rules receive state support.
Ukrainian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
President Zelensky signed a bill amending conscript demobilization conditions, with the finalized version published on the parliament’s website. Originally submitted on Feb. 22, the bill addresses the release of conscripts whose service expired during martial law, with provisions allowing them to enter the reserve per presidential decree terms and adds a clause permitting conscripts to delay further mobilization for 12 months, as per amendments made by the National Security and Defense Committee on Feb. 23.
Ukraine is actively enhancing its domestic drone manufacturing capabilities. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov highlighted the successful deployment of the Ukrainian-designed “Sych” strike-reconnaissance drone, which has inflicted damage and destruction on Russian military assets valued at around $100 million. The “Sych” drone boasts a range of approximately 30 miles and demonstrates resistance to Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Additionally, Ukrainian Minister of Strategic Industries Oleksandr Kamyshin announced that Ukraine has matched Russia’s production level of one-way attack drones, already manufacturing drones comparable to the Iranian Shahed-136/131 models.
Ukraine’s Defense Procurement Agency, under the Ministry of Defense, finalized its first direct purchase agreement with a Swedish manufacturer on February 26, enabling direct acquisitions of military materials. This contract aligns with a collaboration framework established with the Swedish Defense Materials Administration (FMV), an arrangement that was initiated at the NATO Summit in Vilnius in July 2023. This move signifies a significant step in Ukraine’s efforts to bolster its defense capabilities through direct international partnerships.
Ukraine’s Allies
Sweden is set to become NATO’s 32nd member after Hungary, the last NATO country to do so, formally approved its accession bid. The approval process was notably delayed by the Hungarian Parliament and Prime Minister Viktor Orban, marking a significant hurdle for Sweden’s membership. Sweden will officially join NATO upon finalizing all accession procedures.
Over 20 world leaders, including 15 from the EU, convened in Paris to discuss increasing ammunition supplies to Ukraine, led by French President Emmanuel Macron who announced a coalition to provide Ukraine with advanced missiles and munitions. Macron emphasized France’s commitment to preventing Russian victory and urged European nations to brace for potential Russian escalations. Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas announced Estonia’s long-term military aid to Ukraine, contributing 0.25 percent of its GDP until 2028, and encouraged other supporting nations to pledge similar support.
French President Emmanuel Macron, at a Paris meeting with European leaders, did not dismiss the future possibility of Western ground troops in Ukraine as Russia’s invasion continues. He stressed the importance of doing everything necessary to prevent a Russian victory and maintained “strategic ambiguity” about which countries might send troops. The discussions, part of efforts to bolster Europe’s collective security, were against the backdrop of increased Russian military activities and the imperative to protect against potential Russian expansion into countries like Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. President Zelensky, speaking via video, urged a collaborative effort to negate Russia’s advantages and called for decisive actions in 2024, including seizing Russian assets and increasing sanctions.
Germany unveiled a new military aid package for Ukraine, including 14,000 155mm artillery shells, 10 Vector recon drones, four WISENT-1 mine-clearing machines, among other supplies. Major General Christian Freuding of the Bundeswehr’s Ukraine Situation Center revealed that Germany is globally seeking artillery ammunition for Ukraine. Insider sources disclosed to Der Spiegel that Germany is conducting covert talks to procure Indian artillery rounds via intermediaries, with potential similar discussions with Arab nations.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov visited Kyiv, marking his first official trip to Ukraine since taking office in June 2023. Denkov’s government has shifted towards a pro-Kyiv stance, supporting Ukraine with arms supplies despite opposition from Bulgarian President Rumen Radev. During the visit, President Zelensky expressed gratitude for Bulgaria’s support, while Denkov praised Ukraine’s resilience and determination in the face of adversity.
The CIA has established a network of bases in Ukraine vital for tracking Russian activities, but they face increased risk without funding support from Republicans, reported the New York Times on Feb. 25. CIA Director William Burns made a secret visit to Ukraine on Feb. 22, emphasizing the importance of the intelligence partnership amidst escalating tensions with Russia. Ukrainian intelligence agencies fear potential abandonment by the CIA amid anxieties over funding uncertainties, akin to past instances in Afghanistan, as Russia’s threat looms large.
Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson visited Lviv, meeting with Mayor Andrii Sadovyi and touring a military recruitment center. Jonson’s visit follows Sweden’s announcement of a substantial defense aid package for Ukraine. Lviv officials highlighted the importance of the visit and the support provided by Sweden during these challenging times.
South Korea intends to tighten export controls on Russia and Belarus for goods with military applications, in response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. As sanctions against Moscow increase, Russia seeks alternative routes for procurement, prompting South Korea to monitor exports of strategic items, including drone components. The move aligns with recent efforts by other nations, such as Canada, the EU, the U.K., and the U.S., to impose stricter sanctions against Russia and its supporters.
Latvia’s Agriculture Minister Armands Krauze urged the EU to include Russian food items in its sanctions, ahead of an EU Agriculture Ministers meeting. Latvia will independently ban imports of Russian and Belarusian foodstuffs, effective from March, with President Edgars Rinkevics supporting the move, citing concerns about Russian grain possibly originating from Ukrainian territories under occupation. Krauze emphasized the need for an EU-wide ban, highlighting that without it, goods could still transit to other EU states or third countries, while asserting that alternatives to Russian imports are available, particularly from Ukraine.
Russia News
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees to re-establish the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts, marking a significant shift in Russia’s military structure. These changes include the demotion of the Northern Fleet’s joint command status, redistribution of its territories to the new districts, and the reassignment of naval assets directly to the Russian Navy. Additionally, the decrees integrate both occupied and unoccupied Ukrainian territories into the Southern Military District, indicating Russia’s intent to fully incorporate these areas. This restructuring aims to optimize Russia’s military command for operations in Ukraine and posture against NATO, reflecting long-term strategic objectives. The re-creation of separate military districts addresses the stretched strategic focus of the Western Military District by improving command and control for the war in Ukraine and enhancing readiness against NATO. Putin’s actions suggest a preparation for both immediate regional objectives and future large-scale conflicts.
Russian Mobilization and Defense Industrial Base
Between January and September 2023, Russia imported nearly 450 million euros worth of sanctioned European goods, including weapons technology, with a quarter coming directly from the EU and the remainder via intermediaries in countries like Turkey, UAE, Serbia, and China, as reported by Bloomberg. Frontelligence Insight, a Ukraine-based intelligence organization, revealed that Russia’s Special Technology Center, a drone manufacturer under U.S. sanctions, procures dual-use technologies from the U.S. and Taiwan through international intermediaries. This company produces Orlan-10 reconnaissance drones and Leer-3 electronic warfare systems for the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russia’s Stupor LLC has created an advanced electronic warfare system designed to neutralize enemy drones, featuring a combination of radar, radio frequency scanners, optical recognition, and jamming equipment for defense over ranges exceeding five kilometers. The system integrates the “Storm” and “Shtil” systems for broader coverage, alongside the “Pars” system, which operates effectively up to two kilometers, catering to drones on varying frequencies. This development aims to enhance protection against drone attacks on strategic assets.
Russian Allies
Reports indicate that Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova, does not intend to request joining Russia at the upcoming Congress of Deputies in Tiraspol on February 28. According to sources, the congress will focus on Moldova’s economic pressure rather than discussing integration with Russia, with no “sudden steps” planned. Despite previous concerns and speculation, including a potential referendum on annexation to Russia, current discussions seem to center on economic issues, with both Moldovan and Ukrainian officials assessing a low risk of escalation or Russian military action from Transnistria.
Russian Narratives and Propaganda
Russian entities have launched information and cyber operations against Ukrainian military personnel, attempting to disseminate misleading claims about a breach of Ukraine’s NATO-standard “Delta” network and falsely reporting that Russian hackers could track Ukrainian forces. Additionally, a cyber-attack using malware distributed through the Signal app targeted Ukrainian servicemembers, prompting responses from Ukrainian cybersecurity authorities to counteract the threat and reinforce system defenses. These actions aim to undermine Ukrainian military cohesion, erode trust in military command, and destabilize defense mechanisms.
At the Second Congress of the International Russophile Movement and the Forum on Multipolarity, Russian officials and propagandists reiterated narratives aimed at undermining Western influence, promoting the concept of a multipolar world led by Russia. Grigory Karasin, a prominent Russian official, portrayed the event as evidence of global interest in aligning with Russia to challenge Western dominance, reinforcing a Kremlin theme that casts the West as an imperial force opposed by a balanced, Russia-centered global order.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is spreading false claims that the US and Western countries tried to meddle in the Belarusian parliamentary elections on February 25. This misinformation campaign is expected to escalate and continue through the 2025 Belarusian presidential election, as Russian officials aim to discredit Western involvement in Belarusian democratic processes.
Source Materials
Institute for the Study of War – understandingwar.org.
The Kyiv Independent – kyivindependent.com.