Flames on the Horizon: Putin’s Ceasefire Unravels as Engels Airbase Burns

As negotiations over peace terms continue, Ukrainian forces strike deep into Russia’s strategic heartland while attacks against Ukrainian cities persist despite Moscow’s declared “energy truce”

Summary of the Day – March 20, 2025

Ukrainian forces struck Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast, home to Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, while Russian drones continued targeting civilian infrastructure across Ukraine. Despite Putin’s claim to have ordered a 30-day pause on strikes against energy targets, the bombardment of Ukrainian cities continues as diplomats prepare for talks in Saudi Arabia on March 24. Trump has declared an intention to sign a minerals deal with Ukraine, while Putin signed a decree requiring Ukrainians in occupied territories to obtain Russian citizenship or leave by September 2025. German parliament approved €3 billion in new military aid for Ukraine, and European leaders presented varying security proposals ahead of a summit in Paris on March 27. Military operations continue on both sides, with advances by Ukrainian forces in Belgorod Oblast and Russian forces near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka.

Purported footage of an aftermath of a Ukrainian drone attack against Engels, Saratov Oblast, Russia. (Astra/Telegra)

Fire in the Deep: Ukraine’s Strategic Strike on Engels Airbase Rocks Russian Heartland

In a bold and strategically significant operation, Ukrainian forces conducted a massive drone strike against the Engels-2 airbase in Russia’s Saratov Oblast overnight on March 20. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that elements of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), Unmanned Systems Forces, Special Operations Forces (SSO), and other units collaborated on the mission, which set the base ablaze and triggered a series of secondary explosions.

“This military facility is used by Russian aviation to launch missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine and terrorist attacks against the civilian population,” the General Staff stated in its report.

Geolocated footage showed explosions and fires at the facility, located over 450 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Saratov Oblast Governor Roman Busargin described it as the “most massive drone strike of all time” against the region, while rapidly implementing evacuation procedures for residents living near the airfield.

The Engels-2 base hosts Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, including Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160 aircraft—the platforms that launch cruise missiles and glide bombs against Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported that the strike destroyed a large number of Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles.

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have shot down 132 Ukrainian drones overnight, including 54 over Saratov Oblast, as a state of emergency was imposed in the Engels district and temporary flight restrictions were implemented at nearby airports.

Russian Attacks Continue: Drone Strikes Across Ukraine Despite Putin’s Pledge

Despite Putin’s claim that Russia would observe a 30-day moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure, Russian forces launched a massive aerial assault on Ukraine overnight March 19-20. Ukraine’s Air Force reported that 171 Shahed and decoy drones were launched from various sites in Russia and occupied Crimea, with Ukrainian forces downing 75 of them over multiple regions.

The attack killed at least five people and injured 26 others across the country. In Kirovohrad Oblast, ten people were injured, including four children, when Russian drones struck Kropyvnytskyi. Governor Andrii Raikovych called it “the largest attack in recent years” against the regional capital.

Firefighters are seen extinguishing a fire after a Russian drone attack on Kropyvnytskyi in Kirovohrad Oblast overnight. A total of eight people were injured, including a child, in the attack. (Ukraine’s State Emergency Service/Telegram)

“Over 20 Russian drones were launched at the city overnight, striking homes and residential buildings,” Raikovych told Ukrainian media.

Russian drones damaged railway infrastructure in the city, with Ukrzaliznytsia reporting that emergency crews were working to repair the damage. In Donetsk Oblast, Russian attacks killed one resident in Kostiantynivka and wounded five others. One person was killed in Kupiansk when a Russian KAB-guided aerial bomb struck a house in Kharkiv Oblast, while two people were killed and four others wounded in Kherson Oblast.

Russian authorities accused Ukraine of violating the 30-day moratorium by targeting Engels Air Base, though the Ukrainian side noted that the facility is a military target and would not be subject to any infrastructure-focused ceasefire. The incident highlights the different interpretations of what the ceasefire covers, with the Kremlin referring to “energy infrastructure” while the White House readout mentioned “energy and infrastructure.”

Negotiations in Saudi Arabia: U.S. to Mediate Between Russia and Ukraine

Diplomatic efforts will take place in Saudi Arabia on March 24, with American officials mediating between separate Russian and Ukrainian delegations. The Kremlin announced that Grigory Karasin, Russian Federation Council International Affairs Committee Chairperson, and Colonel General Sergei Beseda, an advisor to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Director, will lead Moscow’s delegation to discuss a possible maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.

“You basically say, ‘Okay. What are your terms?’ And you go to the other side, ‘What are your terms?’ It’s basically shuttle diplomacy between rooms in Riyadh,” U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg explained.

President Zelensky confirmed that a Ukrainian contact group will meet with U.S. representatives, focusing on protecting civilian infrastructure in ceasefire discussions. “From our side, there will definitely be military officials, engineers, and people who understand port infrastructure,” he noted.

The Ukrainian delegation will be led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. A Ukrainian source told AFP that Kyiv hopes to secure at least a partial ceasefire at the talks. “We still want to agree on a ceasefire, at least on what we have proposed,” the source said, referring to a halt to strikes on energy sites, civilian infrastructure, and attacks in the Black Sea.

U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal: Trump Announces Imminent Agreement

President Donald Trump announced on March 20 that the United States will sign an agreement with Ukraine on access to critical minerals and natural resources “very shortly,” reviving a deal that had been put on hold after discussions in February.

“We’re also signing agreements in various locations to unlock rare earths and minerals and lots of other things all over the world, but in particular Ukraine,” Trump said during a White House event where he signed an executive order to ramp up U.S. production of critical minerals. “One of the things we are doing is signing a deal very shortly with respect to rare earths with Ukraine, which they have tremendous value in rare earths, and we appreciate that.”

The announcement came just a day after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. had “moved beyond” the minerals deal with Ukraine and was focusing on achieving “a lasting ceasefire.”

The proposed agreement would establish a fund with Ukraine contributing 50% of proceeds from the future monetization of state-owned mineral resources, including oil, gas, and logistics infrastructure. Previous versions were rejected by Kyiv for lacking security guarantees, but the final version reportedly includes language that the fund “will be reinvested at least annually in Ukraine to promote the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the minerals deal would give the United States a “vested interest” in Ukraine’s security. “If the United States has a vested economic interest that’s generating revenue for our people as well as for the people of Ukraine, we’d have a vested interest in protecting it,” Rubio told reporters.

Ukraine holds approximately five percent of the world’s accessible non-rare earth mineral resources, including iron, manganese, titanium, uranium, and lithium.

Germany Approves €3 Billion in Military Aid for Ukraine

In a significant boost to Ukraine’s defense capabilities, Germany’s parliament approved €3 billion ($3.25 billion) in new military aid on March 20, ending months of political deadlock within Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition.

The funds, earmarked for defense equipment including munitions, drones, armored vehicles, and air defense systems, represent a critical reinforcement of European support at a time when U.S. backing has grown increasingly uncertain.

“It’s a strong signal to Ukraine, a signal that is absolutely necessary for peace and security in Europe,” said Greens MP Britta Hasselmann.

The new money comes on top of €4 billion in Ukraine military aid already planned in Germany’s budget for 2025, with a further €8.3 billion earmarked for 2026 to 2029. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit previously said the package would include units of German-made Iris-T air defense systems set for delivery over the next two years.

Germany has been Ukraine’s second-largest supplier of military aid, worth approximately €28 billion, after the United States since Russia launched its full-scale invasion. The parliamentary approval follows the adoption of legislation that eased Germany’s strict constitutional deficit limits for defense outlays.

During a European Council summit, Scholz emphasized: “Ukraine can rely on us and we will never leave it on its own. It will also need a strong army in times of peace, and it must not be put in danger by any peace agreement.”

Putin’s Decree: Ukrainian Citizens Must “Regulate Status” or Leave Russia

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on March 20 mandating that Ukrainian citizens residing in Russia and territories under Russian control must either leave or “regulate their legal status” by September 10, 2025.

“Citizens of Ukraine who are in the Russian Federation and do not have legal grounds for staying (residing) in the Russian Federation are required to leave the Russian Federation on their own or regulate their legal status in the Russian Federation by September 10, 2025,” the decree reads.

The order affects Ukrainians in Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts that Russia claims to have annexed. According to the decree, the order will not apply to Ukrainian citizens who register with the Russian Interior Ministry by the September deadline.

The document also mandates that all “foreign citizens and stateless persons” in these territories must undergo medical examinations for drug use and infectious diseases by June 10, 2025.

Russia has previously conducted campaigns to issue Russian passports to residents of occupied areas. This process, often referred to as “passportization,” has been implemented in various occupied regions since 2014.

Putin’s Conditions: Russia’s Stance on Negotiations and Constitutional Changes

Russian business journalists Farida Rustamova and Maxim Tovkaylo reported on March 20 that Putin held a private meeting with Russian businessmen before his call with Trump. According to sources at the meeting, Putin told the businessmen that negotiations to end the war would be slow and difficult, advising them “not to be naive” given the complexities involved. Putin also publicly stated at a Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Congress that Russia should not expect the West to lift sanctions quickly.

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu stated that the Ukrainian government must repeal the September 2022 decree banning negotiations with Putin before the countries can discuss ending the war. Shoigu specifically mentioned Ukraine’s Constitution as an “obstacle” to peace efforts, saying Ukraine needs to change its constitutional clauses regarding “territorial integrity.”

“On Ukraine’s part, the main obstacle is the Constitution. Their Constitution prohibits any negotiations regarding changes in territory,” Shoigu told journalists.

The Ukrainian Constitution recognizes occupied Crimea, Sevastopol, and Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts as Ukrainian territory and forbids the government from amending the constitution if the amendment would liquidate Ukraine’s independence or violate its territorial indivisibility.

In separate remarks, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Europe’s “plans to militarize” are “clearly at odds with” Putin’s and Trump’s efforts to pursue peace in Ukraine and that Europe has become a “war party.”

Europe’s Security Approaches: Different Views on Ukraine’s Future

European leaders have presented varying visions for Ukraine’s security, revealing fundamental differences in approaches to peacekeeping, NATO integration, and security guarantees.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized on March 20 that any ceasefire must be backed by security guarantees for Ukraine to be effective.

“Because we know one thing for certain, which is a deal without anything behind it is something that Putin will breach,” Starmer said during remarks at the Northwood military base outside London.

Starmer’s comments followed a meeting with officials from 31 countries about potential military deployments to protect Ukraine.

By contrast, Hungarian European Affairs Minister Janos Boka told the Financial Times that Budapest opposes Ukraine’s integration into European defense structures, seeing the country instead as a buffer zone.

“We do not see the security of Europe in the integration of Ukraine into defense systems, but we see the need for a buffer zone between Russia and European defense structures,” Boka said.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggested extending NATO’s Article 5 security guarantees to Ukraine without granting Kyiv full membership in the alliance.

“Extending NATO’s Article 5 to Ukraine seems to be the simplest and most effective proposal of all,” Meloni told the Italian Chamber of Deputies.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced he will host European leaders, including President Zelensky, in Paris on March 27 to discuss the peace process. “We will finalize our work on short-term support for the Ukrainian army, on defending a sustainable and durable Ukrainian army model to prevent Russian invasions, and then on the security guarantees that European armies can provide,” Macron said.

EU Financial Support: Commission Releases Funds from Frozen Russian Assets

The European Commission disbursed an additional 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in Macro-Financial Assistance to Ukraine on March 20, to be repaid with proceeds from frozen Russian assets. This brings the total disbursement under the program to 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) since the start of 2024.

“With today’s payment of 1 billion euros, we are reiterating our steadfast commitment to Ukraine. We are helping the country’s economy stay on course and rebuild critical infrastructure damaged by Russian aggression,” Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

EU Economy and Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis stated in Kyiv that frozen Russian assets should remain immobilized until Russia pays reparations to Ukraine, regardless of potential U.S. policy changes.

“G7 decision that those assets are not going back to Russia unless Russia pays for its damages is something which is already decided. And it’s important to stick with this decision,” Dombrovskis told journalists.

Separately, the EU is working to provide Ukraine with 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) for ammunition, according to top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, who called it a “realistic plan” currently under discussion. A much larger 40-billion-euro ($43 billion) package still lacks consensus among EU members.

Kaja High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas speaks to the press as she arrives for the start of a European Union Summit at the Europa Building Forum in Brussels. (John Thys/AFP via Getty Images)

Western nations froze around $300 billion in Russian assets after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, with roughly two-thirds held in Europe.

Russian Programs for Ukrainian Children in Occupied Areas

Kremlin Children’s Rights Ombudsman Maria Lvova-Belova met with Donetsk People’s Republic Head Denis Pushilin on March 20, reporting that occupation authorities sent 127 ill Ukrainian children to medical treatment in unspecified locations. She also stated that 1,346 Ukrainian children participated in the “Day After Tomorrow” social adaptation project.

According to Lvova-Belova, occupation officials opened two youth centers in occupied Makiivka and Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast, for social events involving Ukrainian minors under Russian guardianship. She proposed that Pushilin create a system to place 500 Ukrainian children currently in state custody in occupied Donetsk Oblast with Russian families, noting that many of these children have relatives who could take them in.

President Zelensky has stated that Ukraine will not compromise on the return of Ukrainian children to unoccupied Ukraine. The U.S.-Ukrainian joint statement on the proposed 30-day ceasefire also emphasized the importance of returning Ukrainian children who were moved to Russia or Russian-controlled territories.

Zelensky Warns Against Divided Cities in Ceasefire Plan

President Zelensky warned that Ukrainian towns and cities divided by a demarcation line in a ceasefire scenario would become uninhabitable, drawing parallels to Berlin during the Cold War.

During a briefing with journalists on March 20, Zelensky said he discussed this concern with President Trump.

“There are regions, there are cities and towns that are cut off by a contact line, and if in some places you leave this line in place, you will simply leave these cities or towns without life; no one will return to half of the city,” Zelensky said.

“I told President Trump honestly: ‘Do we want Berlin?… I think we both understood that this was not an option. The Berlin Wall is not an option.'”

Zelensky acknowledged that territorial issues would be the most difficult aspect of negotiations. Russia currently occupies roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts.

The Ukrainian president has maintained that Ukraine would not recognize the occupied territories as Russian soil, while also acknowledging the challenges of liberating some areas through military means.

Recent Battlefield Developments: Advances on Both Sides

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Belgorod Oblast while Russian forces made gains near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Ukraine’s General Staff reported on March 20 that they had destroyed a Russian command post near Demidovka, Belgorod Oblast, which Russia’s 3rd Motorized Rifle Division had been using to plan operations against Ukrainian forces in Sumy Oblast.

Geolocated footage published on March 19 confirms that Ukrainian forces advanced northwest of Prilesye, along the international border northwest of Belgorod City. Russian sources acknowledged Ukrainian advances southwest of Demidovka, though they denied Ukrainian forces had captured the settlement itself or nearby Liptsy.

Russian forces continued advancing in Kursk Oblast. Geolocated footage from March 19 shows Russian forces advancing in northern Rubanshchina, west of Sudzha, and in a forested area southeast of Gogolevka. Russian sources claimed their forces are clearing Gogolevka and that northern Basivka in Sumy Oblast is contested.

In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces advanced in the Toretsk direction, with geolocated footage from March 19 showing movement northwestward in northern Toretsk. Russian sources claimed advances of up to 400 meters northwest of Toretsk near the Toretska Mine.

Russian forces also gained ground in the Pokrovsk direction. Footage from March 19-20 shows Russian forces advancing to the T-0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway west of Vodyane Druhe and to Nova Street in northern Shevchenko.

Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Pavlo Shamshyn reported that spring weather is affecting the intensity of Russian assaults in the Kharkiv direction, with warmer conditions allowing longer front-line operations, though muddy ground hampers movement.

Restored Printing House: Faktor Druk Resumes Operations in Kharkiv

The Faktor Druk printing house in Kharkiv, severely damaged by a Russian missile attack in May 2024, has been fully restored, First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced on March 20.

The Faktor Druk printing house in Kharkiv, heavily damaged by a Russian missile attack in 2024, has been fully restored, photo published. (Yulia Svyrydenko / Facebook)

Russian forces struck the printing facility on May 23, killing seven people and injuring 21. The attack destroyed more than 50,000 books and vital printing equipment. Faktor Druk is part of the Faktor Group, which includes Vivat, Ukraine’s third-largest publishing house.

“A year ago, a Russian attack destroyed a printing house in Kharkiv. I remember how Serhii Polituchyi (the printing plant’s owner) brought burnt children’s books — the same ones my daughter reads — and it just broke my heart,” Svyrydenko wrote on Facebook.

The restoration of the facility was financed by the Howard G. Buffett Foundation, which stepped in following the attack to help rebuild critical infrastructure.

Faktor Druk is one of the largest full-cycle printing complexes in Europe.

Security Service Investigating Rivne Explosion

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) launched an investigation into an attempted terrorist attack after an explosion in downtown Rivne in Ukraine’s west on March 20, the SBU reported.

According to police, a self-made device exploded in a car near a shopping mall in Rivne, injuring a driver and a passenger. Both were hospitalized.

The SBU reported that the pre-trial investigation was launched under the article of terrorist act and illegal handling of weapons.

In February, the SBU reported that Russia recruited the attacker responsible for a deadly explosion at a military enlistment office in Rivne.

The SBU claimed earlier this month that Russia’s intelligence service blew up two teenagers it had recruited to carry out a terrorist attack in the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk. One person was killed and three others injured, authorities said.

EU Considers Reducing Ukrainian Sugar Import Quotas

The European Commission is contemplating significant cuts to Ukrainian sugar imports after complaints from EU producers about plummeting sugar prices, Reuters reported on March 20, citing three unnamed sources.

According to reports, EU Agriculture Commissioner Christophe Hansen told French farm union leaders at the Paris farm show in February that he intends to reduce Ukraine’s sugar imports to levels “well below” current volumes.

After the EU abolished duties on Ukrainian agricultural products in 2022, Ukrainian sugar imports reached 400,000 tons in the 2022/23 season and over 500,000 tons in 2023/24 — far exceeding the pre-war quota of 20,000 tons.

Following protests from European farmers, the EU reinstated a Ukrainian sugar import quota of 262,650 tons in July 2023. This quota was later adjusted to allow for 109,440 tons in January 2024, though Ukraine has exported little under this new allocation.

European sugar prices fell by more than 30% last year, according to the latest EU data. Agricultural trade between Ukraine and the EU reached $17 billion in 2024, with the EU remaining Ukraine’s largest trading partner.

Explosion at Sudzha Gas Station in Russia’s Kursk Oblast

Explosions occurred at the Sudzha gas metering station in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on the night of March 20, followed by a large fire, according to Russian media and Telegram channels. Footage allegedly showing the burning station after the attack has been circulating online.

The Sudzha station was previously used by Gazprom to export gas through Ukraine to Europe, but Ukraine has since stopped accepting Russian gas through this route.

Russia has not issued an official statement about the incident, but Russian Telegram-based media outlets Mash and Baza attributed the attack to Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff accused Russia of deliberately attacking the station in an attempt to pin the blame on Kyiv.

Russian Attack on Zaporizhzhia Injures Six People

Russia attacked the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia with guided aerial bombs on the evening of March 20, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Ivan Fedorov reported.

Damage sustained to a building as a result of a Russian attack. (Telegram / Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governer Ivan Fedorov)

Six people were injured in the attack, including a 61-year-old man, three women (aged 50, 54, 55), and a four-year-old boy.

The attack occurred at around 6:30 p.m. local time. The bombs also damaged residential buildings, destroying two homes and damaging an additional three. Cars and buildings caught fire as a result.

Emergency services provided the victims with all necessary assistance and were at the site to extinguish the fires.

Zaporizhzhia, home to approximately 710,000 residents before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, is frequently targeted by Russian forces.

Russian Companies’ Return: No Official Applications Yet, Says Medvedev

Moscow has not received official requests from foreign companies seeking to return to Russia after exiting due to the Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and former president, told state-owned news agency TASS on March 20.

“No one has officially applied yet. So, they are informally probing the ground,” Medvedev claimed.

His statement follows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s directive to the Cabinet of Ministers to prepare for the return of Western companies, emphasizing that Russian firms should have “certain advantages” over those re-entering the market.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, hundreds of Western companies have withdrawn from the Russian market. According to the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, 472 foreign firms have fully exited, while another 1,360 have scaled down their operations.

The Kremlin has made it difficult for departing businesses by requiring government approval, imposing a mandatory 50% discount on asset sales, and enforcing a 10% “exit tax.”

Ukraine Reportedly Receives Additional F-16 Fighter Jets

A new shipment of Western F-16 fighter jets has arrived in Ukraine, President Zelensky confirmed on March 19. While the president did not reveal the exact number of jets delivered, he stated that “several F-16 aircraft have arrived in Ukraine” and dismissed Russian claims that one had been shot down in Sumy Oblast.

Ukraine has received F-16s from several countries, with the Netherlands committing 24 aircraft, Denmark pledging 19, and Norway promising between 6 and 22. The fighter jets serve both offensive and defensive purposes, including intercepting Russian missiles and drones during aerial strikes and launching attacks against Russian positions along the front line.

The Week Ahead: Diplomatic Activity as Fighting Continues

Multiple diplomatic initiatives are scheduled for the coming days as military operations continue. U.S.-led negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will take place on March 24 in Saudi Arabia, followed by Macron’s summit in Paris on March 27 where European leaders and President Zelensky will discuss security arrangements.

European leaders have proposed various security measures for Ukraine, from peacekeeping forces to extending NATO protections. Questions remain about how these European proposals will align with the U.S.-led efforts.

For Ukrainian civilians, Russian strikes continue across the country. Meanwhile, Russia’s decree requiring Ukrainians in occupied territories to accept Russian citizenship or leave by September 2025 indicates Moscow’s plans to maintain control over these areas.

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